Professional Documents
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and Idealized Modeling
Michael Montgomery & Roger Smith
Image courtesy Sarah Monette & Chris Velden
Recent research and literature
v Review for IWTCVI by Tory and Montgomery
v Review article by Tory and Frank (2010) Tropical Cyclone
Formation. Chapter 2 of Global perspectives on Tropical
cyclones: From science to mitigation. (Ed. Kepert and Chan)
v Some research publications since IWTCVI
• Nolan (2007)
• NolanRappin Emanuel 2007
• Raymond & Sessions 2007
• Raymond, Sessions & Fuchs 2007
• Dunkerton, Montgomery and Wang (2009)
• Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton (2009)
• Majda et al. (2010)
• Montgomery, Lussier, Moore and Wang (2010)
• Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton (2010a,b)
Nolan (2007) What is the
trigger for tropical
cyclogenesis?
Initial condition defined by a
lowlevel vortex of 10 m s 1
maximum winds
Incubation period
during which relative
65 h humidity in midlevels
increases in the
presence of a midlevel
vortex
65 h
Evolution of mean innercore Temporal evolution of inner
relative humidity at various levels core divergence profiles
When the innercore air achieves near saturation, a much
smallerscale intense vortex forms near the surface within this
initial vortex and becomes “the central core of the developing
cyclone.”
65 h
There is a sensitivity to the strength and character of the
initial vortex that results in a weaker (stronger) midlevel
vortex that delays (advances) formation.
There is a presence of smallscale vertical vorticity
anomalies that form in conjunction with deep convective
cells. The temporal evolution appears more as
axisymmetrization rather than merger
Deep Vortex Case
65 h
Shallow Vortex Case
65 h
Nolan, Rappin, and Emanuel (2007)
§Showed that tropical cyclogenesis can occur on an fplane even in the
absence of a preexisting [cyclonic] circulation.
§They argue that “spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in this simulation is a
process with two stages.”
§The first stage is a type of aggregation process [thermodynamic] and
involves “a radiativeconvective feedback, whereby the more moist regions
generate enhanced convection due to lowlevel moisture and mean ascent due
to decreased radiative cooling.”
§The second process appears to be more like the genesis process described by
Nolan (2007), wherein a preexisting circulation with embedded convection
contracts into a tropical cyclone.
§This latter process seems more like the process of intensification described
by Nguyen et al. (QJRMS, 2008).
§ However, in a followup paper, Nolan and Rappin (2008, GRL) showed that
a significant preexisting disturbance is indeed necessary when there is even a
modest amount of vertical wind shear (e.g., 10 kts).
Recent research and literature
Raymond & Sessions 2007
§ Cloudrepresenting numerical simulations, no planetary rotation.
§ Environments cooler at low levels and warmer at upper levels (~ 1 K) lower
the level of maximum vertical mass flux from 10 km to approximately 5 km.
§ This effect intensifies the lowlevel inflow into the convection.
§ They suggest that if realistic values of ambient rotation associated with a
tropical wave or monsoon trough were included, this inflow would cause a
stronger vorticity convergence at lower levels and thus contribute to the spin
up of the system.
Raymond and LopezCarillo (2010) The Vorticity Budget of
Developing Typhoon Nuri (2008).
In the presence of moderate vertical wind shear, overlapping circulations in the
vertical provide a protected region.
Convective vortex stretching becomes concentrated along with increasing low
level vertical mass flux associated with the increasing lowlevel circulation.
Recent research and literature
Schecter and Dunkerton (2009)
§ Explore the formation of model hurricanes from a perspective of rotating,
convective turbulence using an idealized, threelevel numerical model with a
parameterization of deep cumulus convection and surface friction.
§ Examine how deep convection may counter frictional spin down and
spontaneously generate hurricanes from a turbulent sea of smallamplitude
relative vorticity of either sign.
§ Experiments are initialized everywhere with a chaotic smallscale flow.
§ Found that: “The initial stage of selforganization resembles ordinary two
dimensional turbulence, in which likesign vortices coalesce and filaments are
chaotically stirred. Convection gradually develops, and the flow skews toward
cyclonic dominance. Over time, a distinguished region of cyclonic vorticity
engulfs lesser cyclones in the immediate vicinity, and erupts into a dominant
hurricane.”
Terminology
The glossary on the Hurricane Research Division’s website uses
“tropical cyclone as the generic term for a nonfrontal
synopticscale lowpressure system over tropical or sub
tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm
activity) and a definite cyclonic surface wind circulation
(Holland
1993).”
This definition does not invoke any wind threshold.
The glossary defines a “tropical depression” as a tropical
cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17
m s 1 (34 kt, 39 mph) and, in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Basins, a “tropical storm” as a tropical cyclone with surface
winds between 17 m s 1 and 33 m s 1 .
A universally accepted definition of tropical cyclogenesis does
not exist.
Ritchie and Holland (1999) define genesis as: “ … the series of
physical processes by which a warm core, tropicalcyclonescale
vortex with maximum amplitude near the surface forms”.
Nolan et al. (2007) define a time of genesis.
We will define genesis as the formation of a tropical depression
as defined above and, like Ritchie and Holland.
We use these terms "formation" and "genesis“ interchangeably.
We refer to “intensification” as the amplification of the surface
wind speed beyond the stage of tropical depression.
Tropical cyclogenesis within synopticscale disturbances
The development of tropical depressions is inextricably linked
to synopticscale disturbances that come in a variety of forms.
The most prominent synopticscale disturbances in the
Atlantic basin are African easterly waves.
Typically, they have periods of 35 days and wavelengths of
20003000 km (e.g. Reed et al. 1977).
Questions: Which tropical waves (or other disturbances)
will evolve into a tropical depression?
• What is different about developing waves?
• Can this difference be identified, and on what time scale?
• Why do so few disturbances develop?
• Where will the focal point for genesis be?
Multiscale nature of tropical cyclogenesis within tropical waves
Schematic of synopticscale flow through an
easterly wave (dashed) with an embedded
cluster of convection in the wave trough.
The cluster contains mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and
extreme convection (EC, black oval) within one of the MCSs.
From Gray (1998).
Critical layer for waves in latitudinal shear
d z a d 2 U
= b - 2
dy dy
d 2U
2
< 0
dy
za
Idealized profile of an easterly jet U north of the equator, on which stable easterly
waves propagate westward having their critical latitudes just outside the jet’s
inflection points where the gradient of absolute vorticity or “effective ” β is zero.
Unstable waves may be imagined to have their critical latitudes just inside the
latitude of inflection points.
Total precipitable water signature of wave roll up
Hurricane Danielle Pre Hurricane Earl
Schematic of the “Pouch”
Critical
layer
Three new hypotheses
1. Wave breaking or rollup of cyclonic vorticity near the
critical surface in the lower troposphere provides favourable
environment for aggregation of vorticity seedlings for TC
formation.
2. The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation,
where air is repeatedly moistened by deep convection and
also protected from dry air entrainment to some extent.
3. The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by
diabaticallyamplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.
(Heating is most effective when the intrinsic frequency> 0.)
Marsupial analogy: The “baby” protovortex is carried along in
the “pouch” (Kelvin’s cat’s eye) by the “mother” wave until
it is strengthened into an independent and selfsustaining
vortex.
A spectral view of the tropical cyclogenesis problem
VHTs
“Vortical Hot Towers” or VHTs have been invoked as the
fundamental coherent structures in the tropicalcyclone genesis
process (Hendricks et al. 2004, Montgomery et al. 2006, Braun
et al. 2010) and the tropicalcyclone intensification process
(Nguyen et al. 2008, Shin and Smith 2008, Montgomery et al.
2009).
But what, exactly, is a VHT?
VHTs
Hendricks et al. (2004), Montgomery et al. (2006): Although a
universally accepted definition of a convective hot tower does
not exist, we follow common practice and define a hot tower
as an intense convective tower ( contains an updraft with a
vertical velocity ≥ 1 m s 1 between a height of 1 and 15 km)
that reaches and/or penetrates the model tropopause (z ~ 15
km).
Convective hot towers forming in a vorticityrich local
environment may be highly vortical in nature, possessing
intense vertical vorticity within or near their cores.
Numerical simulation of rotating deep convection: idealized VHT
W
warm
bubble
From Wissmeier and Smith (submitted to QJ 2010)
w ρ
w
contour contour
2 m s 1 1 kg s 1 m 2
z
Deep convective cloud Cumulus congestus cloud
z z
contour contour
1 × 10 3 s 1 , thin lines 2 × 10 4 s 1 1 × 10 4 s 1 , thin lines 2 × 10 5
s 1
~ 40 × amplification ~ 8 × amplification
Dunkerton et al. (2009): VHTs are deep moist convective
clouds that rotate as an entity and/or contain updrafts that
rotate in helical fashion (as in rotating RayleighBenard
convection).
These hot vortical plume structures amplify preexisting
cyclonic vorticity by low– to midlevel vortextube stretching
and generate local enhancements of cyclonic vorticity above
that of the aggregate vortex.
Although early observations suggested that VHTs are neither
necessary nor sufficient for tropical cyclogenesis, it is becoming
clear from cloudrepresenting numerical simulations that moist
vortical updrafts are the essential building blocks of the
tropical storm within the rotating protovortex.
Boundarylayer control
An axisymmetric view of tropicalcyclone amplification.
A unified view of tropical cyclogenesis and intensification
Basis for unified view of tropical cyclogenesis and
intensification:
• Deep convection developing in the presence of vertical
vorticity amplifies the vorticity locally by vortex tube
stretching, irrespective of the strength of the updraught and
the depth of convection,
• The vortical remnants outlive the convection that produced
them in the first place.
• The vortical remnants tend to aggregate in a quasi two
dimensional manner with a corresponding upscale energy
cascade and some of these remnants will be intensified
further by subsequent convective episodes.
The unified view continued
• The amplification and aggregation of vorticity represents
an increase in the relative circulation within a fixed circuit
encompassing the convective area.
• As the circulation progressively increases in strength, there
is some increase in the surface moisture fluxes.
• It is not necessary that the moisture fluxes continue to
increase with surface wind speed.
Implications
• The separate stages proposed in previous significant studies
and reviews are unnecessary.
• The idea that tropical cyclones in the current climate are a
manifestation of a finite amplitude instability or that they are
the result of some “trigger” mechanism is challenged by a
new way of thinking about the basic processes of vortex spin
up by vortical convection in a favourable tropical
environment.
New tools for forecasters
Wang et al. (2010) developed a realtime forecast methodology
within the marsupial framework for predicting the tropical
cyclogenesis location using global model operational data.
§ They showed that a wavepouch region of approximately
closed Lagrangian circulation is characterized by a distinct
moisture gradient ahead of the wave trough effectively
separating the relatively moist air within from the relatively dry
air outside the pouch.
§ The propagation speed of the pouch can be estimated based on
a Hovmöller diagram of the moisture front or meridional wind.
§ The genesis location of a tropical storm can be predicted using
global model forecast data up to three days in advance with less
than one degree error.
OkuboWeiss parameter
A useful quantity for realtime wave tracking applications is
the OkuboWeiss (OW) parameter, defined as “vorticity
squared minus strain rate squared”
2 2 2
OW = z - ( E + F )
§ Significantly positive OW values indicate strongly curved
(cyclonic or anticyclonic) flow with minimal shearing
deformation.
§ The wave pouch is characterized by significantly positive OW
and cyclonic rotation, and provides a favourable environment
for vortical convection to persist and vorticity aggregation to
proceed.
Lead PI: Michael Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School
Science Steering Committee: Michael Bell (NPS), Lance Bosart (Albany, SUNY), Chris
Davis (NCAR), Andy Heymsfield (NCAR), Michael Montgomery,(NPS), Rob Rogers
(NOAA/HRD)
Participating Organizations: NPS, Albany, Miami, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue,
Munich, Illinois, Howard, CU, Oregon State, Princeton, NWRA
Diagnostic products produced to identify the intersection of
the wave trough axis and the critical latitude to define the
protected region based on waverelative analysis
ln
E Tropical Cyclogenesis
Downscale Upscale
Enstrophy Energy
Cascade Cascade
Mesoβ:
TC, MCS,
gravity waves
20 – 200 km
ln k
Synoptic Mesoα: Mesoγ:
Easterly Waves Easterly wave critical layer VHTs, Congestus, Precip.
Hydro instability of ITCZ Isolated recirculation regions Driven downdrafts, Gust
Subtropical intrusions Inertia gravity waves fronts
2,000 – 8,000 km 200 – 2,000 km 2 – 20 km
From: Michael Bell
New tools for forecasters
A similar method was applied also to easterly waves over the
western North Pacific to provide flightplanning guidance
during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS08) field
experiment (Montgomery et al. 2010).
The ‘pouch’ diagnostics have been updated and applied to real
time wave tracking during the 2010 NSFPREDICT/NASA
GRIP/NOAAIFEX experiments.
The pouch tracks were predicted using ECMWF, GFS,
NOGAPS and UKMET 5day forecasts and pertinent dynamical
and thermodynamical fields within the prospective pouches were
analyzed following the wavepouch.
Satellite products were examined also in the marsupial
framework together with the model analysis data.
Several examples may be obtained at the address below.
Available at: http://www.meteo.physik.unimuenchen.de\~roger\U1.pdf
Available at: http://www.meteo.physik.unimuenchen.de\~roger\M8.pdf
Thank you
Motivation: review for IWTCVII
Review for IWTCVI by Tory and Montgomery.
These hot vortical plume structures amplify preexisting
cyclonic vorticity and equivalently induce concentrations of
vorticity substance much larger than that of the aggregate
vortex.
Firstdetection locations of developing (triangles) and non
developing (squares) tropical depressions from 19752005 (1995
2005 in red), adapted from Bracken and Bosart (2000). The blue
circle denotes the approximate PREDICT domain.
Moist Critical Layer
Critical latitude/surface: locus where c = U or equivalently
where wave intrinsic frequency = 0
Critical layer: A layer of finite width due to the nonlinear
interaction of the wave with its own critical surface
Kelvin cat’s eye: Recirculating flow within CL wherein air
parcels are trapped and the fluid is isolated from its
surroundings
44
x
The marsupial paradigm
DMW09 proposed a new model for tropical cyclogenesis that recognizes
the intrinsic multiscale nature of the problem from synoptic, sub
synoptic, mesoscale and cloud scales. Using three
independent datasets, ECMWF5 Reanalysis data, TRMM6 3B42 3
hourly precipitation and the best track data from the National Hurricane
Center (NHC), the Kelvin cat’s eye within the critical layer7 of a tropical
easterly wave, or the wave “pouch”, was hypothesized to be important to
tropical storm
formation because:
1) wave breaking or rollup of cyclonic vorticity and lowertropospheric
moisture near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a
favourable environment for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings for
tropicalcyclone formation;
2) the cat’s eye is a region of approximately closed circulation, where air
is repeatedly moistened by deep moist convection and protected to some
degree from dry air intrusion; and
3) the parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically
amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.
Timeradius evolution of the stratiform (left) and convective (right)
precipitation. The figures show the area coverage by each rain type in
percentage (%). The ordinate is time (h) and the abscissa is radius with
respect to the moving pouch centre (km). (Adapted from Montgomery
et al. 2010b)