Wallace Garden Supply

Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Actual
Period Value Weights Three-Month Weighted Moving Averages
January 10 0.263
February 12 0.579
March 16 0.158
April 13 2.6 + 6.9 + 2.53 / 1 = 12.106
May 17 3.2 + 9.3 + 2.05 / 1 = 14.473
June 19 4.2 + 7.5 + 2.69 / 1 = 14.422
July 15 3.4 + 9.8 + 3 / 1 = 16.263
August 20 4.5 + 11 + 2.37 / 1 = 17.842
September 22 5 + 8.7 + 3.16 / 1 = 16.843
October 19 3.9 + 12 + 3.48 / 1 = 19.000
November 21 5.3 + 13 + 3 / 1 = 21.000
December 19 5.8 + 11 + 3.32 / 1 = 20.106

Next period 20.158

Sum of weights = 1.000

Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting 3 period weighted moving average

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute Squared
Period Actual value Weights Forecast Error error error
January 10 0.263
February 12 0.579
March 16 0.158
April 13 12.106 0.894 0.894 0.800
May 17 14.473 2.527 2.527 6.385
June 19 14.422 4.578 4.578 20.962
July 15 16.263 -1.263 1.263 1.596
August 20 17.842 2.158 2.158 4.659
September 22 16.843 5.157 5.157 26.597
October 19 19.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
November 21 21.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
December 19 20.106 -1.106 1.106 1.222
Average 1.965 6.913 6.913
Next period 20.158 BIAS MAD MSE

Sum of weights = 1.000

Absolute
% error

6.88%
14.86%
24.10%
8.42%
10.79%
23.44%
0.00%
0.00%
5.82%
10.48%
MAPE