UNCTAD

Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities

and Development 2013
Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy
options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development

Room XXVI
Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland

Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc

Don Smale
Secretary-General
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
International Copper Study Group
International Nickel Study Group

20 MARCH 2013

This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel,
Lead and Zinc
Don Smale
Secretary-General

International Lead and Zinc Study Group

International Copper Study Group
International Nickel Study Group
UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development
Geneva, 20-21 March 2013 1
 International Copper Study Group
Introduction
 Formally established in 1992, following a series of
UNCTAD expert meetings on copper.
 Headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal.
 Co-located with International Lead and Zinc Study
Group and International Nickel Study Group since 2006.
 The Group is an intergovernmental organization
consisting of 23 member governments plus the European
Union representing copper producing and using countries

International Copper Study Group 2

 ICSG - MEMBERSHIP

 Membership is open to any country involved in copper

production, consumption or international trade.

Last two countries joining in 2011/2012: Zambia and Iran

 Current members are: Australia, Belgium, Chile, China,

Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iran, Italy, Japan,
Luxembourg, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Portugal, the Russian
Federation, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, the United States,
Zambia and the European Commission.

Possible new Member Countries: Mongolia, Brazil and DRC

International Copper Study Group 3

 ICSG - MAIN OBJECTIVES &
FUNCTIONS
To conduct consultations and exchanges of information on
the international copper economy.
To improve statistics on copper.
To increase market transparency.
To undertake studies on issues of interest to the Group.
To consider special problems or difficulties that exist or may
arise in the international copper economy.

ICSG endeavours to provide its membership with the most

accurate, comprehensive and timely information on
capacities, production, usage, trade, stocks, prices,
technologies, research and development, and other areas
that may influence the supply and demand for copper.
International Copper Study Group 4
 A FORUM FOR DISCUSSION

• Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a

year ahead

• Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals

• Environmental policy: sharing information on

approaches to regulation

• Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives

provide input to member governments

• Invite observer countries, industry and observer

organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank, UNIDO,
Common Fund for Commodities and metals
associations
International Copper Study Group 5
 ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS

Directory of Copper Mines & Plants (semi-annual): The Directory of

Copper Mines and Plants highlights current capacity and provides a five
year outlook of forecasted capacity for over 1,000 existing and planned
copper mines, plants and refineries on a country by country basis,
including separate tables for SX-EW plants. Salient details for each
operation are included and the Directory separates operations between
Operating & Developing and Exploration & Feasibility stages.
Directory of Copper & Copper Alloy Fabricators - First Use (annual):
This directory provides a systematic global overview of companies and
plants involved in the first use of copper. First users are mainly semis
fabricators that process refinery shapes into semi-finished copper and
copper alloy products. The Directory covers wire rod plants, ingot makers
(for castings), master alloy plants, brass mills, and electrodeposited
copper foil mills.

Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries

International Copper Study Group 6

 ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS
Copper Bulletin (monthly): includes annual and monthly statistics, by
country, on copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper
usage and trade, as well as stocks and exchange prices, providing a
global view of supply and demand.
Statistical Yearbook : As above, covering the past 10 years.
Monthly Press Release on the state of the copper market (to be included
in the email distribution list please contact mail@icsg.org)
World Copper Market Forecast: Prepared twice a year for the following
two years.
Copper Factbook: The Factbook provides a broad overview of all facets
of copper, from production to trade, usage, recycling and more. It is
designed to promote copper and educate readers about the importance
and contribution of copper to society. Available in ICSG Website, in PDF
and in hard copies.
Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries

International Copper Study Group 7

 World Copper Reserves 2011

Resources: about
3000 million tonnes (Mt)

Not to scale
Reserves
690 Mt

2011 Mine
Production
contained copper metal 16.03 Mt Sources: USGS

8
International Copper Study Group
 World Copper Reserves
2011 Breakdown
Source: USGS

• Despite increased
consumption of Kazakstan
1%
Other
DRC Chile
copper produced from 3% Canada
1%
12%
28%
Zambia
ore in recent years, 3%
Poland
increases in reserves 4%
Indonesia
have grown more, and 4%

there is more copper

Russia
available to the world 4%
China
Peru
than at any other time 4%
United States
13%

5%
in the past. Mexico Australia
6% 12%

Mexico accounts for around 6% of World Copper Reserves reported by USGS

9
 Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4%
Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.1 %
Average annual grow rate in the last 3 years: 1.2%
Source:10
ICSG
 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Mine Production

20,000
The 2008 crisis had a severe impact on Mine sx-ew world
18,000
copper projects development and the Concentrates world
16,000
postponement of many projects: no new 14,000
major project until 2012. 12,000

'000t Cu
Mine production growth averaged a 10,000

disappointing 0.9% growth in the period 2008- 8,000

6,000
2011 (concentrate growth was flat)
4,000
However smaller and medium size mine 2,000
projects stared in 2012 and 2012 production -
recovered from 2011operational constrains 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Capacity expansions occurring in Chile, 8%

Mexico and Peru World concentrate production growth
7%
World SX-EW production growth
Major mine projects start by end 2013 and in 6%
2014 boosting world production (eg. Oyu 5%

Tolgoi) 4%
3%
The supply constraint factors that have
2%
been affecting the copper industry in the last
1%
few years will expected continue to impact
0%
supply. -1% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World copper mine production expected to -2%

grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of
about 3% in 2012 Source: ICSG
International Copper Study Group 11
 Distribution of Copper Mine Production
by Country

Others, 16.3%
1990 Iran , 1.6%
Brazil , 1.7%
Others, 10.0% 2014
Brazil , 0.4% Chile , 17.2%
Kazakhstan ,
Iran , 0.7% 2.0% Chile , 29.3%
Kazakhstan , Poland , 2.2%
China , 3.2%
3.4% Mexico , 3.6%
Poland , 3.6% Peru , 3.3%

Congo , 4.4%
Mexico , 3.6%
Indonesia ,
3.4%
Congo , 3.9% Canada ,
United States 3.6% China , 8.9%
Indonesia ,
1.8% , 17.2% Zambia , 4.9%
Canada ,
Russian Fed. , Peru , 7.4%
8.6%
4.0%
Zambia , 4.6% Russian Fed. ,Australia , Australia , United States
8.7% 3.5% 6.3% , 7.2%

Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world

United States loosing share and Peru increasing its share
Mexico maintaining the same share at around 3.6%

Source:12
ICSG
 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Refined Production
24,000
World Refined Production
22,000
2012 Japanese refined production 20,000
recovered from low 2011 levels. (earthquake) 18,000
16,000
2013 world refined production recovering 14,000

'000t Cu
12,000
from extended maintenances occurring in 10,000
2012 8,000
6,000
Chinese refined production continuing its 4,000
strong expansion 2,000
-
Expected improved capacity utilization 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

rates at Indian refineries.

Two new refineries that started in Turkey
and in Kazakhstan in 2011 bringing new
18.0% World primary refined production growth
supply in 2012/2013
16.0% World secondary refined production growth
Primary electrolytic refinery production to 14.0%
remain constrained by shortage of 12.0%
concentrates 10.0%
World secondary production expected to 8.0%
grow by 11% in 2013 and share in total 6.0%
output to be around 19% 4.0%

World copper refined production expected 2.0%

to grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth 0.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
of about 2% in 2012 Source: ICSG
International Copper Study Group 13
 Distribution of Copper Refined Production
by Country

Others, 23.7%
China, 5.2%
1990 Others, 16.2% 2014
Chile, 11.1% Peru, 1.5%
Belgium, 1.8% China, 30.0%
Spain, 2.0%
Mexico, 1.4% Japan, 9.3% Mexico, 2.0%
Spain, 1.6% Australia,
2.2%
Peru, 1.7% Zambia, 3.3%
Belgium, 3.1% Poland, 2.5%
Australia,
United States,
2.5% Korean Rep.,
Zambia, 4.1% 18.7%
2.9%
Poland, 3.2% India, 3.2% Chile, 13.3%
Korean Rep.,
1.7% Germany,
India, 0.4% Russian Fed., 3.1% Japan, 6.8%
Germany, 7.4% Russian Fed., United States,
4.9% 4.0% 5.3%

Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to

30% by 2014
United States and Japan loosing share
Mexico growing from 1.4% to 2%
Source:14
ICSG
 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Usage

Copper consuming sectors growth linked to the performance of the world economy.
World GDP should pick up gradually during 2013/2014 supporting global usage growth.
However regional divergences occur with lower growth in some regions than others. Globally,
the downside risk remains elevated
Stimulus packs by some governments supportive of usage growth
Improved outlook for the US economy, lower wirerod imports and new wirerod plant positive
for usage in 2012-2014
Uncertainty on EU sovereign debt issues and economy contraction negatively impacting
usage in 2012 with small recovery anticipated for 2013 and 2014
Japan’s usage is expected to remain practically unchanged in the period 2012-2014
Indian urbanization and industrialization should continue to boost copper usage and
supporting growth in 2013 and 2014.
Unstable political situation in the Middle East and North Africa affecting usage in the region in
2011-2012 and only small growths expected for 2013-2014
Global green applications such as wind farms are a growing sector boosting world copper
usage.
Substitution remains a threat when copper prices remain high.
In 2012, China apparent usage growth (+11%) inflated by high net cathode imports. However,
anecdotal evidence suggests that the high imports were accompanied by an increase in
inventories held in bonded warehouses. Chinese usage growth in 2013/2014 expected to be
lower than in previous years.

International Copper Study Group 15

 Distribution of Copper Refined Usage
by Country

China , 5%
1990 Belgium ,
1.3%
Others, 15% 2014
Others, 26%
United States , Mexico , 1.5%
20% Spain , 1.8%
Turkey , 2.1% China , 42%

Belgium , Brazil , 2.1%

3.6% Taiwan , 2.0%
Mexico , 1.2% Germany , 9% Italy , 2.9%
Spain , 1.3%
Turkey , 0.9% India , 3.3%
Brazil , 1.3%
Taiwan , 2.5% Russian fed. ,
Japan , 14.5%
Italy , 4.4% 3.1%
Japan , 4.6%
India , 1.2% Korean Rep. , Korean Rep. ,
3.8% United States ,
Russian fed. , 2.9%
Germany , 6% 9%
5.5%

Strong growth in Chinese refined usage, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to more
than 40% by 2014
United States share in world usage declining from 20% to 9%
Mexico growing slightly from 1.2% to 1.5%
Source:16
ICSG
 Major Uses of Copper: Usage by Region and End Use
Sector, 2010
Basis: copper content, thousand metric tonnes
Source: International Copper Association

North
America
Europe 10% Latin
22% America
6%
Building
Construction
32%

Equipment
54%

Infrastructure
14%

Asia
62%

International Copper Study Group 17

 ICSG World Copper forecast (Oct 2012) – summary table
FORECAST TO 2013
REGIONS MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE

(1000 t) 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

Africa 1,306 1,396 1,712 961 1,064 1,326 281 256 262
N.America 2,150 2,244 2,536 1,706 1,701 1,886 2,202 2,241 2,340
Latin America 6,848 6,993 7,209 3,717 3,463 3,606 600 608 641
Asean-10 765 653 909 517 398 575 734 788 819
Asia ex Asean/CIS 1,768 1,977 2,298 8,048 8,772 9,367 11,331 12,005 12,014
Asia-CIS 470 487 500 428 447 472 99 100 101
EU-27 788 804 814 2,716 2,768 2,790 3,295 3,137 3,207
Europe Others 832 853 870 1,080 1,049 1,095 1,202 1,120 1,173
Oceania 1,092 1,118 1,300 477 503 504 120 122 125
TOTAL 16,019 16,524 18,147 19,651 20,166 21,620 19,865 20,376 20,682

World adjusted 1/ 2/ 16,019 16,479 17,533 19,651 19,950 21,140 19,865 20,376 20,682
% change 2.9% 6.4% 1.5% 6.0% 2.6% 1.5%
Refined Production - Usage Balance -214 -426 458
1/ Based on a formula for the difference between the projected copper availability in concentrates and the projected use in primary refined
production; 2/ based on average ICSG forecast deviations for pre-recession years 2003/2007.

With production growth expected to exceed demand growth in 2013 and 2014, the market is foreseen to
return to surplus after three years of consecutive deficits

The International Copper Study Group recognized that numerous factors including a world economic slow down, European
Union sovereign debt issues, political disturbances in the Middle East and North Africa, and market price volatility create
significant uncertainty, and that the global market balances could vary from those projected 18
 WORLD COPPER MINE CAPACITY BY REGION - 2012/2016
12,000
2012 10,263
10,000 2016
7,979
8,000
('000t Cu)

5,892
6,000
3,699 3,938 4,133
4,000
3,043
2,190
1,976 2,225 1,254 1,494
2,000

0
Africa Asia Europe North South Oceania
America America

South America will remain the region with the largest GROWTH
2012-2016
copper mine installed capacity and is expected to bring to Oceania

the market until 2016 an additional 2.3 Mt capacity. South America

Asian and African copper mining capacity also increasing North America

substantially. Europe

All together, these three regions represent 78% of the Asia

world additional copper mine production capacity to come Africa
on stream by 2016. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February

19 2013
International Copper Study Group
 COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap > 100Ktpy Cu)
600

550

500 Resolution
Udokan

450

400 El Pachon
Tampakan
Las Bambas
350

Sentinel Michiquillay La Granja Pebble

Cobre Panama
300

Toromocho
Wafi Golpu
Frieda River
250 Reko Diq
Sierra Gorda Quellaveco El Arco
Aynak
El Galeno Galore Creek
200 Los Azules
Deziwa & Ecaille C
Rio Blanco Panantza El Relincho
Mina Ministro Hales
(Mansa Mina) Agua Rica El Morro Kamoa
150 Junin
Qulong
Yandera Altar Shaft Creek
Caserones Tia Maria
100 Cerro Casale
King King

50

Total annual Capacity of Listed Projects : 9 Mt Cu

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013

International Copper Study Group 20
 Projected Copper Smelter Production Capacity Increase by Country
2,000
1,750
Expected increase until 2016
1,500
1,250
1,000
('000t Cu)

750
500
250
0

Zambia
Iran
China

India

Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia

Potential (1)
Others
-250

(1) Future possible new/expanded smelters in Mongolia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Brazil, Philipines,
Indonesia and Tanzania

China will continue to increase its smelting capacity through expansions and new projects.
Some expansions, new projects occuring in other few countries
Indonesi new mining law on banning ore exports leading to the development of new
smelter projects in the country
In August 2010 Grupo Mexico announced plans for a smelter/refinery project (Empalme)
to start in Mexico in 2016 with a capacity of 350ktpy (development not yet confirmed)
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013
International Copper Study Group 21
 International Nickel
Study Group

An Autonomous International Governmental

Organization
Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with
International Lead & Zinc and Copper Study
Groups, resulting in significant cost savings
Enhancement of market transparency in the
world nickel market
Forum for discussions on nickel issues.
 INSG Member Countries

Australia Brazil Cuba European Union

Finland France Germany Greece
Italy Japan Norway Portugal
Russian Sweden United
Federation Kingdom
 World Nickel Ore
Production (2/2)

in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f)
(2154.7)
2003
(1257.3) Oceania Africa
19% 5%
Oceania Africa Americas
25% 6% Americas Europe 23%
32% 18%

Europe
21% Asia
16% Asia
36%

(f) forecast October 2012;

Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Production (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes

(f) forecast October 2012;

Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
 World Primary Nickel
Production (2/2)

in 1000 tonnes

2013 (f)
(1849.0)
2003
(1184.5)
Americas Asia
18% 41%
Americas Asia
24% 19% Africa
Africa 3%
5%

Oceania Oceania
15% Europe 11%
37% Europe
28%

(f) forecast October 2012;

Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
 World Primary Nickel
Usage (consumption) (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes

(f) forecast October 2012;

Asia adjusted in March 2013.
 World Primary Nickel
Usage (consumption) (2/2)

in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f)
(1755.2)
2003
(1218.6)
Europe
Europe 21%
41% Oceania Oceania
0.2%
0.2%

Africa Africa
3% 2%

Asia Americas Americas

43% 14% 10%
Asia
67%

(f) forecast October 2012;

Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Balance -
annual in 1000 tonnes

(f) forecast October 2012;

Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
 Primary Nickel Capacity
by Country
New committed developments:
2011:  1.7Mt
CHINA P.R.
 0.5Mt
CANADA 9% COLOMBIA
10% CUBA BRAZIL
3% 3% 27%
BRAZIL
7% DOM. REP.
2%
AUSTRIA FINLAND CANADA
0% 3% 10%
FRANCE
1% NORWAY
AUSTRALIA 2%
8% FYROM
ZIMBABWE 1% CHINA P.R.
1% GREECE 8%
VENEZUELA 1%
1% INDONESIA
UK CUBA
2% 2% 4%
NEW CALEDONIA
UKRAINE JAPAN 23%
1% 10% JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA 6%
AFRICA 2%
3% SERBIA NEW KOREA
(KOSOVO) CALEDONIA MYANMAR 5%
NORWAY 4% MADAGASCAR
1% RUSSIAN FED. 3%
5% 11%
19%

New
producing
Note: excluding NPI.
countries
 New Nickel Capacity on
Stream / Ramp Up
Estimated Projected Total
Project Name / Country Product Mode Remarks
Production Production
Ambatovy / Madagascar Class I Ramp Up ≈ 35 000 60 000 Open market
Tagaung Taung / Myanmar FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 10 000 22 000 China
Koniambo / New Caledonia FeNi Start Up ≈ 16 000 60 000 Open market
Onça Puma / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 30 000 58 000 Open market
Barro Alto / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 27 000 36 000 Open market
Goro / New Caledonia Semi / Class I Ramp Up ≈ 26 000 60 000 Australia & China
Ramu / PNG Semi Ramp Up ≈ 13 000 30 000 China & Other
Talvivaara / Finland Semi Ramp Up ≈ 18 000 35 000 Finland
Raventhorpe / Australia Semi Ramp Up ≈ 33 000 39 000 Australia & Other
Santa Rita / Brazil Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 23 000 25 000 Brazil & Finland
Kevitsa / Finland Conc. Start Up ≈ 9 000 10 000 Open market
Long Harbour / Canada Class I Start Up ≈ 10 000 50 000 Mainly replacement
Taganito / The Philippines Semi Start Up ≈ 6 000 30 000 Japan

Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.

 World Nickel Ore
Production 2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2010 2011 2012 2013
% change % change (f) % change

Africa 80.1 79.5 -0.8 89.5 12.5 101.0 12.9

America 367.2 482.7 31.5 488.1 1.1 490.0 0.4

Asia 504.8 662.4 31.2 732.5 10.6 780.0 6.5

Europe 325.4 361.5 11.1 343.5 -5.0 377.7 9.9

Oceania 298.4 346.1 16.0 375.8 8.6 406.0 8.0

Total 1575.8 1932.3 22.6 2029.4 5.0 2154.7 6.2

(f) forecast October 2012;

Asia adjusted in March 2013.
 World Primary Nickel Production
2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2010 2011 2012 2013
% change % change (f) % change

Africa 36.0 36.4 1.0 41.7 14.6 56.5 35.6

America 229.0 272.4 18.9 295.2 8.4 332.0 12.5

Asia 538.0 628.7 16.9 724.4 15.2 750.0 3.5

Europe 501.6 525.1 4.7 511.6 -2.6 509.0 -0.5

Oceania 141.4 150.2 6.2 176.5 17.5 201.5 14.2

Total 1446.0 1612.7 11.5 1749.4 8.5 1849.0 5.7

(f) forecast October 2012;

Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
 World Primary Nickel
Usage 2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area 2010 2011 2012 2013
% change % change (f) % change

Africa 24.0 23.9 -0.4 25.3 5.9 27.2 7.5

America 153.2 165.0 7.7 168.7 2.2 180.3 6.9

Asia 929.4 1050.6 13.0 1105.7 5.2 1170.0 5.8

Europe 355.9 364.5 2.4 359.3 -1.4 374.9 4.3

Oceania 2.7 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.8 3.7

Total 1465.2 1606.7 9.7 1661.7 3.4 1755.2 5.6

(f) forecast October 2012;

Asia adjusted in March 2013.
 The impact of Asia and China
Nickel Usage (Consumption)
tonnes
1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000
World ex-Asia
800,000

600,000
Asia ex-China
400,000

200,000 China

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Asia: 47% Asia: 66%

China: 15% China: 46%
 Nickel Product Substitution
• Europe & North America:
– Nickel scrap units are replacing primary nickel in not only stainless
steel, but also in alloyed steel and high nickel alloys where possible.
• China PR:
– Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is replacing primary nickel and to some extent
stainless steel scrap due to cost and easy availability.
• India:
– Nickel scrap units are increasing faster than primary nickel in stainless
steel.
• Conclusion:
– The nickel market is changing all the time and currently nickel supply
and demand is working differently around the world with China
developing the usage of NPI and Europe, India & North America is
going the scrap route more and more.
 Comments

• What effect will the new nickel projects currently

coming on stream and ramping up have on the
market?
• Nickel pig iron production and usage in China:
– what effect would that have on the world nickel
market, including ore availability, price and
scrap?
• Will nickel remain an attractive investment object
and store of value in the future?
 ILZSG Overview
 Intergovernmental organization set up within the UN system
 Significant level of industry representation
 Established by UN in 1959 in New York
 Moved to London in 1977

 From start of 2006 ILZSG,

ICSG & INSG co-located in
Lisbon, Portugal

www.icsg.org www.insg.org
38 38
 ILZSG Membership
 Membership open to any country involved in lead and/or zinc
production, usage, or trade.
 30 members (>85% of global lead/zinc industry):

Australia Germany Morocco Serbia

Belgium India Namibia South Africa
Brazil Iran Netherlands Sweden
Bulgaria Ireland Norway Thailand
Canada Italy Peru United States
China Japan Poland European
Finland Korea Rep. Portugal Community
France Mexico Russian Fed.

39 39
 ILZSG Main Publications 50% Discount
For companies
 Lead and Zinc Statistics: ILZSG’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin based in member
countries
 Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects 2013
 Study on Chinese Zn First Use Market 2012
 The By-Products of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel
 Indian Lead Market 2012
 The Market for Lead: Fundamentals Driving Change 2012
 World Directory: Primary and Secondary Lead Plants 2011
 Environment and Health Controls on Lead 2011
 Environment and Health Controls on Zinc 2011
 China Lead Acid Battery Market (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
 China Zinc Recycling Industry (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
40
 World Zinc Reserves 2011

Resources: about
1900 million tonnes (Mt)

Reserve Base
480 Mt
Not to scale

Reserves
250 Mt

Mine
contained zinc metal Production
Sources: USGS, ILZSG
13.0 Mt
41
 World Zinc Reserves Source: USGS
2011 Breakdown
Peru
• Despite increased 7%
China
consumption of zinc 17% Kazakhstan
produced from ore in 5%
recent years, increases Australia
in reserves have 22% Mexico
grown more, and 7%
there is more zinc
USA
available to the world Other 5%
than at any other time 35%
Canada
in the past. 2%

Mexico accounts for 7% of World Zinc Reserves

42
 Falling Lead and Zinc Mine Grades
% Zn % Pb
7,5 2,8

7,3 Zn (LHS)
2,7
7,1
Pb (RHS) 2,6
6,9
2,5
6,7

6,5 2,4

6,3
2,3
6,1
2,2
5,9
2,1
5,7
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
5,5 2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f

43
 Distribution of Lead Metal Supply

2001 2011
Mexico Australia Korea Europe
Other Japan 4% Japan 17%
Australia
5% 3% 2%
13% 4% Korea 2%
Mexico 3% Europe Other Canada
3% 30% 12% 3%

USA
China 13%
15% USA Canada China
23% 4% 44%

Source: ILZSG

44
 Selected Lead Mine Openings/Expansions
2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration)
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG

Mine Annual Capacity Open

(Pb metal contained)

George Fisher, Australia* 120,000t 2012 (36kt expansion)

Magellan, Australia* 85,000t 2013 (reopening)
Potosi , Australia* 14,000t 2012 (new)
Keke Tale, China* 15,000t 2012 (new)
Kayar, India* 15,000t 2013 (new)
Garpenburg, Sweden* 50,000t 2012 (20kt expansion)
Tala Hamza, Algeria 36,000t
Admiral Bay, Australia 350,000t
Browns Oxide Project, Australia 70,000t
Browns Sulphide Project, Australia 150,000t
McArthur River (expansion), Australia 93,000t
Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia 200,000t
45
 Zinc Mine Supply
'000 tonnes
1963-2013f
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research

2000
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013f
46
 Distribution of Zinc Mine Supply
2001 2011

Europe Mexico Peru Mexico India Peru

Europe
12.0% 4.8% India 10.3% 4.9% 6.4% 9.7%
China 8.0%
2.4%
20.1%

Other
34.8% Other China
26.3% Australia 33.3%
Australia
Australi 11.4%
13.7%

Source: ILZSG

47
 Selected Zinc Mine Openings/Expansions
2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration)
Mine Annual Capacity Open
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG Zn Metal contained

George Fisher, Australia* 215,000t 2012 (64kt expansion)

Perkoa, Burkina Faso* 95,000t 2013 (new)
Bracemac-McLeod, Canada* 90,000t 2013 (new)
Keke Tale, China* 40,000t 2012 (new)
Valardena, Mexico* 90,000t 2013 (reactivation)
Garpenburg, Sweden* 50,000t 2012 (20kt expansion)
Tala Hamza, Algeria 164,000t
Admiral Bay, Australia 450,000t
Dugald River, Australia 200,000t
McArthur River (expansion), Australia 380,000t
Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia 300,000t
Panorama, Australia 185,000t
Gamsburg, South Africa 350,000t
Ozernoye, Russia 350,000t
48
 World Lead Demand Forecast
Annual Change
7.0%

ILZSG Forecast 6.0%

5.0%

• 2012 3.4 % 4.0%

3.0%

• 2013 3,3% 2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Source: ILZSG

49
 World Lead Mine Supply Forecast

Annual Change
12.0%

ILZSG Forecast 10.0%

8.0%
• 2012 10.9 %
6.0%

• 2013 2.8% 4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
Source: ILZSG

50
 World Lead Metal Supply Forecast
Annual Change
8.0%

7.0%
ILZSG Forecast 6.0%

5.0%

• 2012 2.9 % 4.0%

3.0%

• 2013 3,8% 2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
2009 20103 2011f 2012f 2013f
Source: ILZSG

51
 Lead Metal World Balance
200 '000 tonnes

150

100

50

-50

-100

-150

-200 Source: ILZSG

-250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

52
 Zinc Stocks and Prices
Oct 2006 – Oct 2012
2200 5000
'000 tonnes US $ per tonne
monthly average
2000 4500

1800 4000
1600
3500
1400
3000
1200
2500
1000
2000
800
1500
600

400 1000

200 500
Source: ILZSG / LME
0 0
Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12

SRB+SHEFE Producers+Consumers+LME Zinc LME Cash Settlement Price

53
 World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast

Annual Change

ILZSG Forecast 14.0%

9.0%
• 2012 –0.3 %
4.0%
• 2013 3.8%
-1.0%

-6.0%
2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
Source: ILZSG

54
 World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast
Annual Change
7.5%

ILZSG Forecast 5.0%

• 2012 5.0 % 2.5%

• 2013 2.7% 0.0%

-2.5%
2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
Source: ILZSG

55
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast
Annual Change
14.0%
ILZSG Forecast 12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
• 2012 –2.0 % 6.0%
4.0%

• 2013 4.8% 2.0%

0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013
Source: ILZSG

56
 Zinc Metal World Balance
400 '000 tonnes

300

200

100

-100

-200

-300 Source: ILZSG

-400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
57
Next Study Group Meetings in Lisbon, Portugal
● 22-23 April 2013 International Nickel Study Group

● Morning 24 April 2013 International Lead and Zinc Study Group

● 2.00pm 24 April 2013 Joint Study Groups Seminar “Financial Aspects of

the Metals Industry: Price Volatility, Investor Activity
and Project Financing”

● 25-26 April 2013 International Copper Study Group

58