sion distances are increasing from room-length buses
linking a few computers to several-kilometers-long buses
joining hundreds of hosts.
These changes are coming even if three access methods,
instead of one, are standardized by the 802 committee.
The cost of each method should be low, since VLSI im-
plementation will damp out the differences in the com-
plexity among the three, and the volume of applications
for each method should be high enough to obtain econ-
omies of scale. If it were ever to become possible to stan-
dardize on just one method, the cost of development,
manufacture, installation, and maintenance would fall
still further.
Order-of-magnitude changes in the ability to do
something have led in the past to more doing of it, and to
doing it differently. In this case the growth in local net-
working capability promises to lead to distributed com-
puting, resource sharing, and common data bases. For
the individual it will mean access to more computing
power, more peripherals, and more information; it will
enable him to communicate more widely; it will enhance
his ability to work. Local networks will provide a new
generation of applications, some of them perhaps now
unsuspected.
If experience with the CSMA/CD, token-bus, and
token-ring access methods reveals real differences in per-
formance and cost, the lowest-cost, highest-performance
method will become dominant in the next five to ten
years. It could then be chosen as the sole standard.
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On the other hand, if performance and cost differences
turn out to be small and difficult to quantify, or if each ac-
cess method is found to be best for a particular group of
applications, then we may expect all three methods to
endure.
Yet a third scenario is possible. Researchers are still
developing new access methods. Conceivably one of them
could become the eventual winner in the local network
sweepstakes. Or one or more new methods could take a
place alongside some of the methods now being standard-
ized. That outcome might raise network costs, but
presumably-under the laws of competition-the better
fit of a new method to an application would offset the
extra cost.
To the potential local network user who would like to
put his saddle on the ultimate winner this year, the pro-
spect of having to ride just one of the horses in a lengthy
race is a bit disheartening. All he can do at present is study
the horses (methods) and the condition of the track (ap-
plications) and make his judgment.-
Acknowledgments
Robert Stewart, former chairman of the IEEE Com-
puter Society's Standards Committee, recognized the
need for an article of this type and referred me to Maris
Graube, chairman of the 802 committee. He, in turn,
referred me to subcommittee chairmen Donald C.
Loughry, Mark Stieglitz, and Nathan Tobol. I express my
appreciation to them for explaining the situation orally
and supplementing their comments with many docu-
ments. Harvey Freeman, chairman of the Technical
Committee on Computer Communications, offered com-
ments on the first draft.
References
1. Kenneth J. Thurber and Harvey A. Freeman, "Architec-
tural Considerations for Local Computer Networks,"
Proc. First Int'l Conf. Distributed Computing Systems,
Oct. 1979, pp. 131-142 (reprinted in Thurber, Tutorial: Of-
fice Automation Systems, 1980, pp. 165-176; available
from IEEE Computer Society, 10662 Los Vaqueros Cir.,
Los Alamitos, CA 90720).
2. A Status Report-Local Network Standards Committee,
IEEE Project 802, Draft B, Oct. 19, 1981, 408 pp.
3. IEEE Project 802: Local Network Standards, Draft C,
May 17, 1982, 698 pp.
4. J. R. Fragola, "The IEEE Standards Generation Process,"
Proc. Compsac 78, IEEE Computer Society, Los Alamitos,
CA, pp. 545-550.
so-1 5. "Reference Model of Open Systems Interconnection," In-
ternational Standards Organization documents ISO/
TC97/SC I 6/N227 and ISO/TC97/SC16/N309.
IEEE MICRO