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Abstract
In this study, we propose a Lagrangian model for the simulation of traffic flow on a complex road network. This simple approach
is quite efficient if adequate road network data are available and statistical constraints are applied to confine the model behavior. We
have established a traffic information database for Hong Kong Island and applied the model for traffic flow simulation. It is shown
that by specifying three types of traffic routes (random turn, preferred turn and shortest path) and providing traffic flow data at
selected stations, the model is capable of simulating traffic flow on the road network. This is confirmed by comparing model
simulated and observed traffic flow patterns at several monitoring stations. The simulated traffic flow is then used as the basis for the
estimation of traffic induced emission of air pollutants on the island. Using empirical emission factors for a number of vehicle
categories, the emission rates of major air pollutants, CO, NOx and PM10, are estimated. The predicted emission rates are compared
with measurements for several air quality monitoring stations.
Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Traffic; Traffic flow model; Road network; Traffic emission; Urban air pollution
1364-8152/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.08.003
1176 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188
Traffic data are generally obtained by either in-situ numerical solution of Eqs. (1) and (2) requires their
observation or numerical modelling. The former most discretization for complex road networks. The numer-
accurately reflects traffic conditions in real-time, but is ical treatments for the diffusion and advection terms are
usually carried out on selected road links only, e.g. rather cumbersome.
highways and artery roads. The amount of observed As an alternative, some researchers established
data is often insufficient for adequately quantifying the equilibrium relations between traffic density and traffic
traffic on a road network. Further, in-situ measurements flow velocity for the closure of Eq. (1) instead of using
are usually done on a daily or even a monthly basis. This Eq. (2). By definition, traffic flow is the product of traffic
temporal resolution is insufficient for refined (usually density and velocity. If traffic density is zero, then traffic
hourly) emission modelling. A complement is to make flow is also zero; and when traffic density reaches the
temporal and spatial extrapolation with many assump- maximum, i.e., traffic is congested, traffic velocity
tions to allocate traffic volume, e.g. Salles et al. (1996) decreases to zero, so traffic flow is also zero. Newell
and Jensen et al. (2001). Another approximate method- (1993), Daganzo (1994) and Wong and Wong (2002)
ology previously adopted, as pointed out by Cohen et al. suggested piecewise-linear flow–density relationships.
(2004), is to distribute traffic emission over model grid De Angelis (1999) studied nonlinear hydrodynamic
cells, resulting in improper grid-based averaging emis- modelling of traffic flow in theory. The linear diffusion
sion rate instead of that along actual mobile source. Lin term was taken into account in the governing equations.
and Niemeier (1998) used observed traffic data to De Angelis found that a second order flow–density
estimate hourly allocation factors and disaggregated relation gives a satisfactory fitting to the experimental
traffic volume into hourly values. These indirect results of Leutzbach (1988). Critical analysis on a similar
methods inevitably lead to inaccuracies in emission model but with additional phenomenological relation
modelling. In theory, numerical modelling of traffic flow between density and velocity was presented by Bonzani
on road can provide every detail required for the (2000) and Marasco (2002). Velan and Florian (2002)
calculation of traffic emissions. Unfortunately, previous explored the implications of nonsmooth equilibrium
efforts failed to do this because of road network flow–density relationships. However, all these studies
complexity and, as we will see below, difficulties in were concerned with traffic flows on individual high-
solving the traffic flow equations. ways. We are not aware of traffic model applications to
Continuum hydrodynamics was firstly introduced to complex road networks.
traffic flow theory in the 1950s (Lighthill and Whiteman, Our approach is different. In contrast to the
1955). Prigogine and Herman (1971) applied statistical continuum hydrodynamic approach, we consider the
methods, as in classic fluid dynamics, to traffic flow motion of individual vehicles and determine the macro-
studies. The work of Prigogine and Herman, known as scopic traffic flow quantities on the basis of vehicle
the kinetic theory of traffic, considered vehicles on road movement. Although the problem of traffic on network
as interacting particles in traffic flow which can be is highly complicated, the movement of individual
described by one-dimensional compressible fluid equa- vehicles is quite simple. Vehicle movement is analogous
tions. Suppose there is neither creation nor destruction to that of gaseous molecules. However, while molecules
of vehicles on road, the continuity equation and the move randomly, vehicles are confined to the road
equation of motion for traffic flow can be written as: network and follow certain designated paths. Hence,
the movement of individual vehicles is predictable.
vr vr
Cv Z0 ð1Þ We are therefore motivated to track vehicles on road
vt vs network using the Lagrangian methodology. This
approach requires no predefined velocity–density re-
lationship. Instead, we introduce a critical traffic density
vv vv 1 v vv vp
Cv Z m CI ð2Þ and two time scales. The motion of an individual vehicle
vt vs r vs vs vs
is governed by a first-order ordinary differential equation
where r is density (number of cars per unit road length), which can be solved by using, for example, the Runge–
n is traffic flow velocity, m is viscosity, and p is local Kutta method. Macroscopic traffic flow quantities, such
pressure. The first term on the right hand of Eq. (2) as traffic flow velocity and traffic density, can be esti-
models viscosity, a presumed tendency to adjust vehicle mated once the velocity and position of individual
speed to that of the surrounding traffic (Nagatani, 1998). vehicles are known. The Lagrangian approach is very
The last term I is all inner forces due to interaction simple in theory and involves little mathematical diffi-
between individual cars (Kerner and Konhauser, 1993). culties. However, we recognize that the implementation
In practice, the continuum hydrodynamic approach is of such a model on a road network requires the knowl-
difficult to implement for two reasons. One is that the edge of designated paths for individual vehicles. For
quantities such as m, I and p are not well defined and a given road network, we may be dealing with millions
cannot be readily determined, and the other is that the of vehicles and it is impossible to determine the
L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1177
Public Light Bus (PLB): passenger carrying vehicle EURO II emission standards in 1995 and 1997,
with capacity of 17 seats. CC O 2.01; respectively. Furthermore, the government tightened
Passenger Van (PV): dual purpose gasoline van with the emission standards for newly registered motor
capacity not exceeding 17 seats with weight less than vehicles (design weight less than 3.5 t) to EURO III
3.5 t; level in 2001.
Bus (BUS): diesel urban buses and coaches; Three emission modes are taken into account for
Light Goods Vehicle (LGV): four wheeled lorry or calculation of emission factors: (i) hot emissions, these
dual purpose van which is not provided with side are the emissions from vehicles after they have warmed
windows covering the full length of the vehicle body, up to their normal operating temperature; (ii) cold-start
with weight less than 3.5 t; emissions, these are the emissions from vehicles while
Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV): lorry with more than they are warming up and the water temperature is below
four wheels, including fire engines, refuse vans, 70 C; and (iii) evaporative emissions, these are associ-
military trucks, petrol tanks and other similar ated with the relevant quantities for gasoline vehicles in
vehicles, with weight exceeding 3.5 t. the form of no-methane VOC (subtracting CH4 from
VOC) emissions.
For vehicle category i, the emission rate of pollutant j The resultant hot emission factors of CO, NOx and
on road k is calculated by: PM10 adopted in this study are listed in Tables 2–4.
‘Conventional’ vehicle category is applied for all except
Eijk ZCij Vik ð8Þ 93/59/EEC for LGV in the form of NOx emission in
Table 3 and 91/441/EEC for PLB in the form of CO and
where Vik is the traffic flow of vehicles type i on road k
NOx emissions in Tables 2 and 3. The cold emissions are
and Cij is the emission factor of pollutant j emitted by
taken into account as additional emissions per kilometer
vehicles type i. Further, Vik can be expressed as:
by introducing cold to hot ratio of emissions, ecold/ehot,
Vik ZPik Vk and the fraction of mileage, b, driven with cold engines
or catalyst operated below the light-off temperature.
where Pik and Vk are the fraction of vehicle type i and They are the function of ambient temperature and the
the traffic flow of all vehicle types on road k, average trip length. The calculation formula for these
respectively. The emission rate of pollutant j of the parameters can be found in Ahlvik et al. (1997).
vehicle fleet on road k can then be calculated by:
X
n X
n X
n
Ejk Z Eijk Z Pik Vk Cij ZVk Pik Cij ð9Þ 3. Model application to Hong Kong
iZ1 iZ1 iZ1
We have applied the models to the simulation of
where Vk is calculated using the traffic flow model, and
traffic flow and traffic-related emission on Hong Kong
Pik is estimated based on in-situ investigation conducted
Island. The road network on the island is shown in
by local government departments. Table 1 shows the
Fig. 1, which is represented by over 6000 line features in
proportion of various vehicles by counting at the exit of
ArcGIS. The traffic on the island is an isolated system
three cross-harbour tunnels of Hong Kong in year 2000
with only three harbour tunnels linking to the out-
(HKTD, 2001). The values listed are averages over 16 h
sidedi.e., Kowloon and the New Territory. This
(0700–2300). In the traffic census of Hong Kong, there
significantly simplifies the simulation. The traffic data
are 203 counting stations in total on the island, although
obtained in the three tunnelsdfrom left to right in
we only listed data from three stations.
Fig. 1, Western Tunnel, Cross Harbour Tunnel and
The emission factors Cij are estimated by COPERT II
Eastern Tunneldare used as boundary conditions for
methodology (Ahlvik et al., 1997). The reason we chose
the modelling.
COPERT II for Hong Kong is that Europe emission
standards have been implemented in Hong Kong since Table 2
1995 under Air Pollution Control Regulations. The Speed dependency of CO emission factors
Hong Kong government introduced the EURO I and Vehicle Vehicle Speed Emission factor
class category [km h1] [g km1]
Fig. 1. Hong Kong Island network and locations of traffic counting and AQM stations.
cross-harbour tunnels, ignoring the sources on Hong option. A vehicle origins from the Western Tunnel and
Kong Island. ends the trip on South Lane, Sham Wan, a no-through
road.
3.2.1. Random turning trip
In this travel option, a vehicle travels randomly on 3.2.2. Preferred turning trip
road, i.e., it turns randomly to any linked road when In this study, all roads are classified into four
encountering a traffic light or being at the intersection of categories: tunnels, main roads, secondary roads and
multiple roads, only subject to traffic rules. Among all trails. For the preferred turning option, a vehicle at an
vehicles on a road network, only a small proportion of intersection turns preferably to a higher class road. We
vehicles adopts this option of travel. We assume such assume 20% of the vehicles on road behave this way.
proportion to be 10%. Fig. 4 shows an example of this Fig. 5 shows the driving route of a vehicle making
4000
Cross Harbour Tunnel
Western Tunnel
3500 Eastern Tunnel
3000
Traffic flow (vh/hr)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)
3500
Cross Harbour Tunnel
Western Tunnel
3000 Eastern Tunnel
2500
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)
a preferred turning trip. It also origins from the Western Shing. The shortest ways determined by the model are
Tunnel and, after exit from the tunnel, it travels along quite reasonable for given O–D.
Connaught Road West toward Central.
3.3. Air quality monitoring
roadside monitoring stations on Hong Kong Island for 3.3.2. Observed pollution concentration
validating the model estimates. The monitored hourly concentrations of CO, NOx
The site information of three monitoring stations is as and RSP (PM10) at the three stations in year 2000 are
follows (HKEPD, 2000): plotted in Fig. 7. The diurnal variation of the concen-
trations shows a degree of similarity with that of the
(a) Central/Western: located in a residential area and workday’s traffic flow observed in the same function
the sampling height is 18 m (4 floors) above ground; district (Fig. 7d). The concentrations in Fig. 7a–c
(b) Causeway Bay: located in a busy commercial area present the maximum values at 0800–0900 and 1700–
and the sampling height is 2 m above ground; 1800, corresponding to the morning and afternoon peak
(c) Central: located in a busy commercial/financial area hours of traffic in the area. This temporal feature is
and the sampling height is 4.5 m above ground. clearly observed at Central and Central/Western. At
Causeway Bay, although the morning maximum of CO
The locations of the stations are shown in Fig. 1. (Fig. 7a) and the afternoon maximum of NOx (Fig. 7b)
2000 700
(a) (b)
Concentration (µg m-3)
1.2
140
(c) (d)
120 1
100 0.8
80
0.6
60
Central 0.4
40
Causeway Bay
20 0.2
Central/Western
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr) t (hr)
Fig. 7. Monitoring concentrations of (a) CO, (b) NOx and (c) PM10. (d) Diurnal variation of traffic flow.
are not observed, another maximum is still notable in 3.4. GIS and models
the plots. The minimum concentrations of pollutants
appear at 0300–0500, when the traffic flow is at the The models discussed in this study are the key
lowest as well. components of the Traffic Emission Information System
entering our simulated domain are through the three 2000 Real-time
1
Real-time are observed in the Western Tunnel and the Eastern
0.8 Tunnel during the daytime. As most traffic travel for
0.6
different purposes on weekends, different traffic patterns
are also observed at the counting stations.
0.4 Fig. 11 shows the traffic flow patterns at three
0.2 stations on weekends. Both observed and simulated
traffic flow are plotted for comparison. Again, the
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 simulation reproduces the observed traffic pattern quite
t (hr) well. Unlike the weekday cases, there is no obvious
traffic peak during daytime at Stations 1001 and 1002
1.4 (Fig. 11a and b). This is understandable as there are less
Simulated (b)
business trips to these areas on weekends. The peak
Normalized traffic flow
1.2 Read-time
1
hour at Station 1011 is at 1600 (Fig. 11c). This
reasonably reflects the preferred time when the most
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.2 (a)
Normalized traffic flow 1
Simulated
0 Real-time
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0.8
t (hr)
0.6
1.2
Simulated (c) 0.4
Normalized traffic flow
1 Real-time
0.2
0.8
0
0.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)
0.4
1.2
0.2 Simulated
(b)
Normalized traffic flow
1
Real-time
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0.8
t (hr)
0.6
Fig. 10. Simulated against real-time traffic flow at counting stations
(weekdays): (a) 1001; (b) 1002; (c) 1011. 0.4
0.2
1002 (Fig. 10a and b). In contrast to Stations 1001 and 1 Real-time
1002, only one traffic peak is observed in the afternoon
0.8
(1600) at Station 1011, while the simulated traffic flow
presents the peak values during both morning (0800) 0.6
and afternoon (1600). It is shown in Fig. 10c that the
0.4
observation at this station is well produced by the
model. 0.2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
traffic for recreational purposes are on roads to the correlation between the predicted emission rates and
recreational area. measured concentrations as a validation of the emission
model.
4.2. Simulation of traffic emission The predicted hourly emission rates (kg h1 km1)
against the observed concentrations (mg m3) of CO,
Traffic emission rates (kg h1 km1) are calculated NOx and PM10 at Central, Causeway Bay and Central/
using Eq. (9). The predicted diurnal variations of CO, Western are shown in Figs. 13–15. The linear regression
NOx and PM10 at Central, Causeway Bay and Central/ equations and the correlation coefficients R2 are also
Western are plotted in Fig. 12. It is observed that the shown in the charts.
variation of traffic flow in Fig. 7d is completely reflected Figs. 13–15 indicate that the observed hourly
in the curves in Fig. 12. This means the linear relation pollution concentrations have a close linear correlation
between traffic flow and traffic induced emission rates. with the predicted traffic emissions at the three stations.
Figs. 7a–c and 12a–c are not directly comparable For CO, the correlation coefficients, R2, at both
because pollution concentrations are measured at the Causeway Bay and Central are larger than 0.8. The R2
monitoring stations while the model predictions are of NOx at Central is as high as 0.86. While it is
pollution emission rates. Instead, we analyze the somewhat lower at Causeway Bay and Central/Western,
it still has the value of 0.78 and 0.74. The R2 of PM10 at
the three stations are between 0.82 and 0.85. The
1.4 correlation coefficients are summarized in Table 5.
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
(a)
1.2 These results confirm the good performance of both
the traffic flow model and the traffic emission model.
1
0.8
0.6
Central 5. Conclusions
0.4 Causeway Bay
0.7
CO : Central
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
(b)
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
0.6 1.4
1.2 y = 0.0017x - 1.0037
0.5
R2 = 0.8446
1
0.4
0.8
0.3 Central
Causeway Bay 0.6
0.2
Central/Western 0.4
0.1 0.2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 600 800 1000 1200
t (hr) Concentration (µg m-3)
0.03
CO : Causeway Bay
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
(c)
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
0.025 1.4
1.2 y = 0.0015x - 1.4317
0.02
1 R2 = 0.7997
Central
0.015 Causeway Bay 0.8
Central/Western 0.6
0.01
0.4
0.005 0.2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
t (hr) Concentration (µg m-3)
Fig. 12. Modelling emission rates of (a) CO, (b) NOx and (c) PM10. Fig. 13. CO concentration vs. traffic emission rate.
L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1187
0.4 0.006
0.3 0.004
0.2
0.002
0.1
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20 40 60 80 100
Concentration (µg m-3) Concentration (µg m-3)
0.7 0.03
0.6 y = 0.0012x - 0.1745 y = 0.0004x - 0.0208
0.025
R2 = 0.7752 R2 = 0.8294
0.5
0.02
0.4
0.015
0.3
0.01
0.2
0.1 0.005
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Concentration (µg m-3) Concentration (µg m-3)
0.08 2.E-03
0.02 4.E-04
0 0.E+00
0 50 100 150 30 40 50 60 70
Fig. 14. NOx concentration vs. traffic emission rate. Fig. 15. PM10 concentration vs. traffic emission rate.
is simple, but has been found to be quite efficient. With correlated. This shows that the emission factor based
the specification of travel behavior, the model is capable approach for the prediction of traffic induced pollution
of simulating traffic flow on a road network. The model emission in urban area is adequate.
has been applied successfully to Hong Kong Island. The In addition to providing traffic flow data for traffic-
simulated traffic flows in three cross-harbour tunnels related pollution simulation, the traffic flow model
and at three counting stations on the island for presented in this work can also be used to predict the
weekdays and weekends have been compared with congestion cases at select traffic black points due to such
observations. Good agreement has been found. The impacts as vast traffic amount, design faults of signal
temporal variations of traffic flow in the cross-harbour system and management.
tunnels and at the counting stations are reproduced by
the model at satisfactory level. Table 5
Using the simulated traffic flow and empirical vehicle Summary of correlation between hourly concentrations and traffic
emission factors, the hourly emission rates of CO, NOx emissions
and PM10 are predicted and compared with the Station CO NOx PM10
corresponding pollution concentrations at three air Causeway Bay 0.80 0.78 0.83
quality monitoring stations. It is found through Central 0.84 0.86 0.85
a correlation analysis that the two data sets are well Central/Western – 0.74 0.82
1188 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188
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