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Contents

Key findings
Introduction
Sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles have already peaked, and
may never recover unless EV growth falters, or major economies such as China
Global passenger
Emissions EV
regulations are salestighter,
getting outlook
both at the city level and the national
level and automakers are responding with a surge of new EV models

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019

invest in significant stimulus programs. Over 2 million
launching in the
electric
next 5vehicles
years. were sold in 2018, up from just a few thousand
in 2010, and there is no sign of slowing down. We expect annual passenger EV
Read
What
The more
wayis driving
people and this
goodsrapid
move uptake?
is set to change dramatically over the next sales to rise to 10 million in 2025, 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040.
two decades, driven by a combination of policy, technology, economics,
demographics
Battery prices keep
and changing
falling. Asconsumer
a result, we
preferences.
expect price parity between EVs and BNEF’s annual forecast of electric vehicles,
internal combustion vehicles (ICE) by the mid-2020s in most segments, By 2040, we expect 57% of all passenger vehicle sales,
The Electric
though thereVehicle
is wideOutlook
variationisbetween
our annual
geographies
long-term forecast
and vehicle
of how
segments. shared
and over mobility and
30% of the road
global transport
passenger tofleet,
vehicle 2040.will be

Electric Vehicle
electrification and shared mobility will impact road transport from now to electric.
2040. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and also Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019, BloombergNEF

Outlook 2019
looks at how these trends will affect electricity demand, oil use and demand
VIEW THE FREE INTERACTIVE REPORT
for battery materials.

This year's forecast includes new analysis on how shared mobility will impact
vehicle sales patterns, on the long-term demand for freight, and on how
electrification will play out in the commercial vehicle market. We have also
included our latest analysis on the outlook for battery prices and battery
chemistry.

The fleet view

Despite the rapid growth in sales, there are over a billion vehicles on the road
and EVs are still less than 0.5% of the global vehicle fleet. Changing this over

Overview
 Colin McKerracher, Head of Advanced Transport, BloombergNEF
will take time. The total passenger vehicle fleet continues to rise to 1.68 billion

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The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term forecast of how
electrification and shared mobility will impact road transport from now
to 2040. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world
and also looks at how these trends will affect electricity demand, oil
use and demand for battery materials.

What’s new in the 2019 EV Outlook?

This year’s forecast includes new analysis on how shared mobility will
impact vehicle sales patterns, on the long-term demand for freight,
and on how electrification will play out in the commercial vehicle
market. We have also included our latest analysis on the outlook for
battery prices and battery chemistry.

BNEF clients can access the full report, its breakdown by technology
and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous
editions. Go to client page or access on the Bloomberg Terminal.  If
you are not a client, you can read an excerpt of the findings in a free
public summary.

The important updates in this year’s EV Outlook are the following:

A comprehensive forecast of electrification in the global commercial

vehicle market. This includes light, medium and heavy duty trucks in
urban, regional and long-haul duty cycles. It also covers other
alternative drivetrains like natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.

A more detailed view of the impact that autonomy, ride-hailing and

sharing will have on the overall car market, including a new overall
vehicle-demand forecast.

An updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV

charger to more accurately reflect the costs individuals face to go
electric.

An updated e-bus forecast taking into account 2018 sales,

urbanization forecasts and manufacturing capacity.

A more detailed view of oil displacement by market and refined

products.

Updated lithium-ion battery price and chemistry forecast based on

our most recent market survey. We have developed a battery
chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s
report.

Update on metals availability for batteries based on our

supply/demand forecast for key metals including cobalt, lithium and
nickel.

Finally, we have re-run our consumer adoption bass-diffusion model

using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing. The EV
market is still in the early stages so each additional year of data helps
calibrate results.
 

Explore findings from the report Press release BNEF Summit Talk
Read the free interactive summary Electric transport spreads into Colin McKerracher discusses China’s
report for high level findings from commercial vehicle market electric vehicle market at the BNEF
this year’s Outlook. Summit in San Francisco

EXPLORE READ W ATC H

View the interactive report

High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 are available
in the free public report.

CLICK TO READ

BNEF clients can access the full report, its breakdown by technology
and region, as well as the underlying Excel data and previous
editions. Go to client page or access on the Bloomberg Terminal.

EV Outlook team

Colin McKerracher Dr. Ali Izadi-Najafabadi Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos David Doherty
Head of transport analysis Vehicle demand and shared Commercial vehicles Oil demand
@colinmckerrache mobility
@AI_Energy

Dr. James Frith Nick Albanese Andrew Grant Dr. Ian Berryman
Batteries E-buses Vehicle demand and shared Modelling
@JamesTFrith @NickRAlbanese mobility
@agrant49

Additional authors:

Siyi Mi, Ali Asghar, Allen Tom Abraham, Nannan Kou, Milo Boers,
Richard Chatterton, Justin Commerford, Ryan Fisher, Leo Chen, Minji
An, Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid.

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