Prepared for TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION

Transmission.tech 2017 MHEV - HEV - PHEV - BEV

April 11, 2017

Thomas Hülshorst / Jürgen Ogrzewalla / Christoph Bollig

© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties

The Future of Mobility!

Electrified Connected

Assisted / Automated Shared

© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |

Hybrid and Electrification
Introduction: Global Fuel economy legislation will become more stringently

Historical performance and targets of CO2 emission limits in different regions

 Legislation worldwide
requires ambitious targets of
fuel economy improvement
 2017 to 2021 a reduction of
CO2 emissions to
130gCO2/km is necessary in
India
 Without a massive
electrification in all markets
the 2025 targets of
113gCO2/km cannot be
achieved
 Currently electrification share
in India is small, but will
become much importance in
near future. This will also
drive a move to two pedal
vehicles
Source: Improving the conversions
between the various passenger
vehicle fuel economy
The ICCT 2014.12.03
The ICCT paper 2016-26
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FEV developed a unique approach covering technology push and market
pull simulation to achieve best-in-class fleet performance strategies

FEV COMPREHENSIVE FLEET PERFORMANCE STRATEGY APPROACH

CO2 / $ 2015 Sales

CO2 / $ 2025 Sales

TECHNOLOGY PUSH MARKET PULL

 Description of powertrain technology
strategy followed by OEMs and
evaluation of respective impact on fuel
economy
 Simulation based forecast on fuel
economy improvement for different
technology strategies and powertrain
architectures
 Analysis of consumers within vehicle
markets and their specific needs and
factors with impact on their utility based
on vehicle specifications and exogenous
factors
 Multi-agent modelling for customer
buying decision modelling to evaluate
market shares of electrified powertrains

Source: FEV

Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
For European market FEV expects a major shift towards plug-in vehicles –
distribution mainly depending on customer preferences

FUTURE POWERTRAIN SCENARIOS PASSENGER CAR

FEV Scenario “Most likely” Scenario 1: “BEV break-through” Scenario 2: “PHEV”

100% 6% 6% 6%
18%
91%
80% 39% 91% electrified 89%
51% electrified drives 47% electrified
drives 57% drives
60% 85%
78% 74% 74%
33% 8%
40% 7% 2%
13% 7% 21%
3%
20% 13% 24%
5% 19% 20% 25% 10% 13%
2% 2% 8% 5% ICE
w/o 5%
w/o ICE
2% 2%
2% 1% 2%
2% 3% w/o ICE
0% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2%
0% 5%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030

CO2 fleet
emission:
<95 g/km* <75 g/km* <65 g/km* <65 g/km* <65 g/km*
*: normalized to NEDC ICE only Mild Hybrid Plug-In Hybrid Fuel Cell
e-fuels: fuels produced by electricity from renewable energy
Source: FEV Stop-Start & 12V Energy Mgmt Full Hybrid Battery Electric Natural gas and e-fuels

Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
 Electrification

Electrification technology roadmap (Passenger cars) Europe

ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP (PASSENGER CARS)

‘14 2015 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 2020 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 2025 ‘26 ‘27 ‘28 ‘29 2030
130 Euro 6 95 751 Post Euro 62
AGM, Enhanced Flow Battery, 12 V + 12 V (e. g. Li-Ion) w/ 12 V e-charger
1 12 V Micro Hybrid (advanced) Stop/Start, IGM* (esp. for smaller vehicle segments)
12 V Li-Ion board net

48 V BSG (small vehicle segments) ISG for lager 48 V

2 48 V Mild Hybrid segments ; comfort , e-charging
48 V as base hybridization esp. for smaller vehicles
board net

HV Mild Hybrid ISG w/ Li-Ion battery Will presumably be replaced by 48V Mild Hybrid

3 Full Hybrid Today most sold xEV Dedicated hybrid Transmission and simplified engines

Range ≥ 50km; predictive energy optimization

4 Plugin Hybrid (e. g. navigation and ACC based)
Range ≥ 70-80 km; predictive energy optimization (connected vehicle based)

BEV (niche) > 150km Wider market introduction Range ≥ 350 km w/o REX;
5 Battery electric vehicle w/ or w/o REX ≥ 250km w/o REX (niche w/ REX) fast charging capabilities

Battery energy density &
cell technology (BEV)
Charging technology
up to 250 Wh/kg (Li-Ion) 300 – 350 Wh/kg (Li-Ion)
Solid state technology (>350 Wh/kg);
[Li-S, Li-Air > 2030]
450 V, conductive charging; Fast fast charging (>200 kW @ 800 V) capabilities for BEV
charging with 50 to 120kW
Inductive charging
 80 % SOC < 15 min

Fuel Cell First market introduction Wider market introduction not before 2030
1:
Under review; 2: FEV Scenario Fleet Average * Intelligent generator Current technology Next generation Future
Source: FEV 130 g/km CO2 limit management focus technology focus technology focus
Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
Demands on hybrid architectures: Trade-off between contrary targets
prevents the „one-for-all“ Hybrid solution.

„Excite the
customer!“ „Just save fuel!“

Plug-in Hybrid / EV Micro / Mild Hybrid

 Long range e-Drive  12V optimization
 Electric-typical drivability  48V mild hybrid
 Small vehicle volume, but large „credit  High vehicle volume
leverage“
Drivers

Low-cost full hybrid

 Simplified cost-reduced ICE
 Low-cost Transmission (DHT)
 Reasonable sized battery „high volume
hybrid“
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Volume electrification focuses on mild hybridization up to 48V with minor
adaptations of conventional powertrain
EVOLUTION OF STOP-START TECHNOLOGY
Gen 1 – 12V Stop-Start
 Stop-Start at standstill
 Limited recuperation
 Components
– Reinforced 12V starter
– AGM battery
– IGR*
 Fuel economy potential:
up to 5% (NEDC), 2%
(WLTP)
*) Intelligent generator control
Trends for Electrification
Gen 2 – Perfect Stop-Start
 Early Stop-Start
 Sailing Idle
 Improved start/stop quality
 Up to 4-5kW with 12V
 Components
– 12V BSG, enhanced
starter
– AGM/ EFB / Li-Ion bat.
– Int. generator control
– E-clutch
 Add. fuel economy
potential: 1-2 % (WLTP)
© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
Gen 3 – Pred. Stop-Start
 Early Stop-Start
 Sailing Idle / Sailing Stop
 Predictive energy managm.
 P0 and P2 architecture
 Up to 15 / 20kW with 48V
 Components
– Gen 2 12V comp.
– 48V components
 Add. fuel economy:
– 2-7% (WLTP),
– 5..20% real world driv.
The FEV AMG45 with gasoline engine and 48 V Bosch BRM and DCDC,
BorgWarner eCharger and A123 Battery provides highest performance

Vehicle Engine

Architecture
12 V 48 V

DC/DC

AGM Starter Load BSG eCharger Battery

Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
48V BSG P0 systems shows advantages from low integration effort and
low additional cost but with limitation in recuperation and cold start

48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES

48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)

EM

EM EM
Architecture

EM EM

BSG
EM

Belt-starter-generator Integrated-starter- Integrated-starter- Integrated-starter- Electric machine

providing electric generator between generator between generator at placed at rear axle
power up to 15 kW ICE and clutch transmission & clutch transmission output with optional flywheel
(parallel or coaxial) (parallel or coaxial)

■ NEDC: - 9%* ■ NEDC: - 9%* ■ NEDC: - 11%* ■ NEDC: - 10%* ■ NEDC: -7 to -9%*
CO2

■ WLTC: - 6%* ■ WLTC: - 7%* ■ WLTC: - 10%* ■ WLTC: - 9%* ■ WLTC: -5 to -7%*
■ CADC: - 5%* ■ CADC: - 6%* ■ CADC: - 8%* ■ CADC: - 7%* ■ CADC: -4 to -7%*

 Low integration effort  Comfort. start/stop  Comfort. start/stop  No ICE modification  No ICE modification
 Low additional cost  Generation during  Efficient sailing  Compatible to diff.  Independent from front
Pro/Con

 Reduc. recuperation standstill  Limited e-driving transmissions wheel drive

due to ICE drag and  Reduc. recuperation  Modification of ICE,  Limited e-drive  No extra length
belt torque capability due to ICE drag clutch, transmission,  No start/stop  Modification of rear
 Limited cold starting  Packaging cooling etc.  Major transmission axle plus add. gearbox
 Packaging modification  No start/stop
*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start
CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle
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Electrification rapidly requires automatic transmission. AMT or AutoClutch
is good bridging technology with high significance for India

48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES: ALL REQUIRE MINIMUM AUTO CLUTCH TO ACHIEVE FE POTENTIAL
48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)

EM

EM EM
Architecture

EM EM

BSG
EM

Belt-starter-generator Integrated-starter- Integrated-starter- Integrated-starter- Electric machine

providing electric generator between generator between generator at placed at rear axle
power up to 15 kW ICE and clutch transmission & clutch transmission output with optional flywheel
(parallel or coaxial) (parallel or coaxial)

■ NEDC: - 6%* ■ NEDC: - 9%* ■ NEDC: - 11%* ■ NEDC: - 10%* ■ NEDC: -9 %*

CO2

■ WLTC: - 4%* ■ WLTC: - 7%* ■ WLTC: - 10%* ■ WLTC: - 9%* ■ WLTC: -7 %*

■ CADC: - 3%* ■ CADC: - 6%* ■ CADC: - 8%* ■ CADC: - 7%* ■ CADC: -7 %*

 Low integration effort  Comfort. start/stop  Comfort. start/stop  No ICE modification  No ICE modification
 Low additional cost  Generation during  Efficient sailing  Compatible to diff.  Independent from front
Pro/Con

 Reduc. recuperation standstill  Limited e-driving transmissions wheel drive

due to ICE drag and  Reduc. recuperation  Modification of ICE,  Limited e-drive  No extra length
belt torque capability due to ICE drag clutch, transmission,  No start/stop  Modification of rear
 Limited cold starting  Packaging cooling etc.  Major transmission axle plus add. gearbox
 Packaging modification  No start/stop
*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start
CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle
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48V makes hybrid functions available at low additional cost and offers a
kind of “entry hybrid solution” to end users with comfortable functions

COMFORT – ASSESSMENT OF 48V FUNCTIONALITIES

Functions Conv. 12V 12V BSG 48V BSG 48V ISG

Recuperation

E-Boosting

E-Charging

High power consumer (EPS, eA/C etc.)

Early engine-off / coasting engine-off / sailing

Freewheeling (engine on)

Electric Creeping <15 km/h

Electric Driving >30 km/h

strong weak

Source: FEV research

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Fuel and Cost Trade Off

Today 48V systems are not fully cost competitive while 12V systems show
best cost-fuel saving compromise. But in 2025 the situation will change.

Additional component cost over CO2-reduction potential in WLTP

 Today mild hybrid architectures are
1,000 all in the area of 95 € / g CO2 fuel
3 savings
 However there is an uncertainty on
Additional component cost in €

800
48V architecture component costs
especially
600
1: 12V enhanced starter
 12V micro hybrid systems reach up
3 2: 12V BSG dual storage system to 5 % fuel reduction for 150 … 250 €
3: 48V dual voltage system system costs
400
 48V mild hybrid systems reach up to
2 Est. cost 10 % fuel reduction for 700 … 900 €
2 2017 system costs
200
Est. cost  High voltage hybrids offer highest fuel
1
1 2022 reduction potential for very high
0 system costs
0 5 10 15 20 25
Fuel savings in g CO2/km

Source: FEV

Trends for Hybridization © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
PHEV concepts

Four different hybrid topologies exist in the market, either with two or more
e-machines and simple T/M or one e-motor and conventional T/M

PHEV

One e-motor Two or more e-motors

Parallel Power Split Axle Split Meshed

Toyota Prius Mitsubishi

AT DCT BMW i8
PHEV Outlander
Mercedes Ford Fusion Volvo V60 / Chevrolet
C350e / S500 / Volkswagen Golf Electric XC90 Volt
GLE 500e GTE
Honda
Audi Q7 Accord
Audi A3 e-tron
BMW X5 eDrive
Porsche
Panamera S-E

Pictures: Daimler, Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Mitsubishi

Trends for Hybridization © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
The All Electric Range is mainly defined by the Battery Size. A Trend in
Europe is towards an Electric Range for the Statistically Daily Use

ELECTRIC RANGE OF MAIN PHEVS IN NEDC

Trend 2020
Volt

Chinese subsidies limit

Prius

Most Manufacturer’s offer 25 to 40km electric range, some 50 km but only GM Volt with
80km (that is more a Range Extender Electric Vehicle)

Trends for Hybridization © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
Suitable electrified powertrain at reasonable cost and range for cities
with congested traffic but without an existing charging infrastructure?

REQUIREMENTS

Driving cycle

Fuel consumption: < 3 l/100km

Range: > 1000km
Battery: < 500$
Powertrain cost: fitting to A/B-Segment cars

BE – Benchmark Level 0 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties 17
Concept Appraisal: Note E-Power

Highly efficient small gasoline engine with reasonable sized battery and
cost-reduction by removing the transmission

POWERTRAIN LAYOUT
Small but high efficient engine (e.g. 3 cylinder),
phlegmatically operated in best efficiency areas
Front Axle Rear Axle

AC
DC

ICE - Gasoline
Li-Ion
EM AC Battery Reasonable sized battery
GEN
DC

2 electric machines BUT no transmission

GEN: Electric Generator ICE: Internal Combustion Engine EM: Electric Machine

HV DC HV AC LV DC
http://www.nissan.co.jp/NOTE/performance_epower.html

BE – Benchmark Level 0 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 18
The NISSAN Note E-Power was designed to fulfill these requirements and
still be future proof by maybe going for REEV with scalable battery capacity

VEHICLE SPECIFICATIONS AND TARGETS

Specifications Note E-Power
Weight [kg] 1220
EM Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 80 / 254
ICE Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 58 / 103
Battery Capacity [kWh] 1,5
Targets Note E-Power
Powertrain Layout Series Hybrid Type
Fuel Consumption (JC08) [L/100km] 2,7
Range [km] 1300
JC08: driving in congested traffic condition

http://www.asahi.com/and_M/articles/SDI2017011267061.html
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FEV HYBex3: Dedicated hybrid transmission enable multi-mode driving
and are capable to bring system costs to a reasonable level

FLEXIBLE DEMONSTRATOR PLATFORM FOR CONCEPT INVESTIGATIONS

Hybrid Concept

TOPOLOGY
 2x 35 kW 66Nm (peak)
HYBex3 motor/generators
 Two direct gears in parallel Mode
Series Parallel
Driving Modes EV
Hybrid Hybrid  Series mode in neutral position
ICE
Gears Low High CVT Low High
 100 kW 220 Nm BMW B38
 Custom ICE software with torque-
and Stop/Start interface
BATTERY
 LiFePo Cells
 5.5 kWh in total
 69 kW (peak)
Source: FEV/DENSO

Template Highlights Beirat © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 20
System optimization will contribute to more extended driving range and
faster charging times of Battery Electric Vehicles

EV TRENDS

Battery improvement with Electric machines with

new generation of cells* higher power density**
SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION

Thermal management with

insulation of passenger cabin Fast charging of batteries
and heat pump combined with with up to 200 kW
battery cooling

Light-weight body and Integration of predictive

chassis to increase energy functionalities for energy
efficiency management optimization***

*) two times higher capacity on equivalent cost, weight and volume

**) >1.5 kW/kg
***) ADAS, camera, LIDAR and Car2x services

2016-06-14
Trends for Hybridization
/ Electrification trends © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
PlugIn Hybrids

Next generation of battery cells for electric vehicles will offer > 300 Wh/kg,
while C-rate will decrease due to higher pack capacity

SPECIFIC RAGONE PLOT

Trend
300 BEV 5C 10C

250 20C
Trend Chemistry
PHEV40 NMC
Trend
Specific Energy [Wh/kg]

200 PHEV25 NCA

LTO
LFP
150 NiMH
Supercap
Other
100 50C
Shape
Cylindrical
50 Prismatic
Pouch

0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Specific Power [W/kg]

Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
Trends on Battery Electric Vehicles

Reasonable battery capacity is also limited by charging time and available

infrastructure to approx. 60-80 kWh usable energy

1,000 Energy consumption per 100 km in

8h 30 min. NEDC:
Electric range [km]

800  BMW i3: 12.9 kWh

 BYD e6: 21.6 kWh
600
 Ford Focus electric: 15.9 kWh
400  iMiev: 12.6 kWh
 Tesla S: ~25 kWh
200
30 min fast charging with
120 kW DC to 80% SoC:
-
 60 kWh ~ 400 km range

8 h standard charging at 16 A /
400VAC socket (11 kW) to 100%
SoC (CCCV-charging):
Socket type
 Approx. 70 kWh ~ 500 km range
Estimated average energy consumption: 14 kWh/100km

Trends for Hybridization © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
PlugIn Hybrids # SELECTED EXAMPLES

eHorizon technology based on map and ADAS sensor data enable

predictive energy management

eHorizon based Operational Strategy

Predictive Energy management
based on eHorizon
 Long eHorizon (map based)
 SOC planning strategy for entire route

 Medium eHorizon (map and sensor based)

 SOC Leveling for downhill and slow driving
zones
 HVAC strategy

 Short eHorizon (car2x com. / sensor based)

 Smart Adaptive Cruise Control
 Situation analysis for
 recuperation
 coasting
 start-stop inkl. sailing stop
 shifting strategy

 All ranges to be further improved by connectivity

data

Trends for Electrification © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption

CASE STUDY – BASELINE TEST

 FEV SMARTDRIVE vehicle was driven in a representative driving scenario as baseline test.

GPS, LTE, DSRC

Camera

~ 4 km

~ 500 s

Lidar

 Driving scenario covers a typical inner city EV driving mileage, according to FEV EV fleet operation study.

 The selected route includes varies of traffic events, e.g. speed bumps, roundabouts, traffic lights etc.

FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 25
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption

CASE STUDY – 3D VIEW OF THE SPEED PROFILES

 Optimized speed profile has smoother acceleration and deceleration, and more constant speed driving.

Base Test

Opt. Test
Speed / kph

Speed Legend / kph

Distance / m
FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 26
Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum
Energy Consumption

CASE STUDY – ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TRAVEL TIME STUDY

 7.3% energy consumption reduction is achieved with even less travel time.

 Speed trajectories were reproduced on test track.

 Base test was a random drive, result may differ with different test (better result may be possible)

 Energy reduction shows less sensitivity to speed deviation caused by the driver

FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 27
Electrification – Technical Trends for Indian market

SUMMARY
 Micro Hybrid based on 12V will become a low-cost standard hybridization with increasing share, applicable in all
vehicle classes, but due to WLTP cycle technologies like start/stop will provide less advantage BUT higher impact
on real life fuel consumption and TCO.

 Hybridization larger than 12V micro hybrid will require automatic transmission to exploit its potential. Automatic
transmission market is still small, but AutoClutch or AMT can provide good bridging technology.

 Mild Hybrids based on 48 V comes into the market starting following the European introduction and corresponding
availability at reasonable cost  Enabler for coasting stop

 Plug-In Hybrids and BEV are the important to reduce cycle CO2-values, but success will also largely depend on
government incentives

 Dedicated Hybrid Transmission, Combined Hybrid and low-cost HEV will become relevant in 2025 time frame

 Low-cost 2- or 3-wheeler BEV up to A segment likely to enter higher volumes first

 Li-Ion batteries so far with very small share in Indian market, to be boosted for higher electrification needs

 Predictive Strategies like e-Horizon** will improve fuel economy for all kind of powertrains for real life operation 
important enabler for customer acceptance

*) trade-off to 95€/g CO2 penalty payments

**) real life fuel consumption
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