None of the evidence presented in the article is strong enough to prove the

profitability of the proposed new jazz club. The developers must explain the
following assumptions in the article to strengthen their claim.
The article assumes that C Note can monopoly the local market in that the nearest
jazz club is 60 miles away. However, it is very likely that the well-established and
long-standing popularity of that jazz club still attract most loyal jazz fans despite the
distances. Without a thorough market investigation analyzing the effect of distance
on willingness to pay for the jazz club, we can’t be sure that C Note is going to take
the market share as a whole simply by its distance.
Moreover, the article rests on several skew evidence which is not qualified to support
the popularity of jazz in Monroe. First of all, over 100000 people attended jazz
festival last summer doesn’t represent Monroe’s local popularity of jazz, since it is
possible that 99 percent of the people attended jazz festival are from other places.
Furthermore, the large amount of attending people of the jazz festival last year can’t
be directly converted to the profitability of C Note. The jazz festival could be a one-
time success, or maybe its popularity is because of the free entry. Thus, those who
came to enjoy the free music is not likely to pay for the jazz club.
Secondly, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe doesn’t necessarily lead
to the popularity of jazz in Monroe. It is likely that those musicians live in Monroe
because of irrelevant reasons, that’s say, maybe Monroe is a remote countryside, and
the isolation is good for composing music. In this scenario, C Note can only count on
the local audience due to the inconvenient location, even if jazz has a high popularity
among the residents, the sparse population of the countryside still can’t bring about
the expected profit mentioned above.
Thirdly, even the highest rated radio program in Monroe is “Jazz Nightly”, we still
need to ask, what is the number of the residents that still listen to the radio? Also,
how many radio programs are there in Monroe? It is likely that most of the residents
in Monroe listen to streaming music such as Spotify or Apple Music, and only one
percent of the people, especially the elderly, will still switch on their radio in the
morning. Also, another possible situation is that there are only two radio programs in
Monroe, and audiences listening to Jazz Nightly are simply because they don’t have
many choices. Neither can the two cases mentioned above prove that jazz is popular
in Monroe.
The most problematic assumption made by the author is that the result of the
nationwide study can be used to predict the amount Monroe residents will spend on
the jazz club. Even if the study is totally accurate, which still needs to be verified, the
1000 dollars average spending of the jazz fan in nation can never represent the
spending in Monroe. Different cities vary in income levels and commodity prices,
thus each city should be considered separately. Even if the residents in Monroe do
spend 1000 dollars on jazz entertainment, the assumption that they will spend some
part of their budget on the jazz club could be problematic, because they may prefer
buying jazz CD albums and going to jazz festivals.
AII in all, the arguments in the article rest on too many questionable assumptions.
Investors should not invest in the proposed new jazz club unless the assumptions are
addressed by the author.