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Notes11 3student
Notes11 3student
3 Inferences Concerning a Difference Between Two Population or Treatment Proportions
In chapters 9 and 10 we learned how to estimate and test hypotheses about a single population
proportion (π). In this section, we will learn methods to compare the proportion of successes in one
population (or treatment) to the proportion of successes in a second population (or treatment).
For example, we may want to compare the proportion of women who support abortion rights with the
proportion of men who support abortion rights or we may want to compare the proportion of patients
who survive using drug A with the proportion of patients who survive using drug B.
In the case of hypothesis testing for 2sample proportions, we will only consider the case
H 0 : p1 - p2 = 0
because this is the most often encountered case and because for hypothesized values other than 0, the
computations are different.
If the population proportions are equal (and equal to pc ), the standard deviation becomes:
pc ( 1 - pc ) pc ( 1 - pc )
s p1 - p2 = + .
n1 n2
However, since we do not know the true value of pc , we must estimate it from the data. We will use the
______________________________, which is the proportion in the combined sample:
Therefore, our estimate of the standard deviation will be:
pc ( 1 - pc ) pc ( 1 - pc )
s p1 - p2 = +
n1 n2
Some books use pc to check the large sample conditions as well. Instead, our textbook approximates p 1
by p1 and p 2 by p2 .
A 1997 article in USA Today reported that in a survey of 150 males ages 20 – 24, 72 live with their
parents and in a similar survey of 150 females ages 20 – 24, 51 live with their parents. Does this give
evidence that 20 – 24 year old males are more likely to live with their parents than females of the same
age?
The five steps:
1. At first glance, it appears that the proportions of males (ages 20 – 24) who live with their parents is
greater than the proportion of females (ages 20 – 24) who live with their parents ( pm > p f ) since
pm - p f = ______________________________. However, it is possible that the true proportions are
the same and we got a difference this large due to sampling variability. To decide, we will conduct a 2
proportion ztest for pm - p f ( a = .05).
2.
3. Conditions:
a. Independent random samples of males (20 – 24) and females (20 – 24)?
Note: The condition for experiments is that the two treatments were randomly
assigned.
b. The sample sizes are large?
Note: these quantities are simply the number of successes and failures for each
sample.
c. The samples are less than 10% of the populations?
4. Calculations:
pc = __________
z=
( p1 - p2 ) - ( p 1 - p 2 ) =
test statistic: pc ( 1 - pc ) pc ( 1 - pc )
+
n1 n2
Pvalue =
5. Decision in context:
The Macek County Clerk wishes to improve voter registration. One method under consideration is to
send reminders in the mail to all citizens in the county who are eligible to register. As a pilot study to
determine if this method will actually improve voter registration, a random sample of 1250 potential
voters was taken. Then this sample was randomly divided into two groups.
Group 1: There were 625 people in this group. No reminders to register were sent to them. The
number of potential voters from this group who registered was 295.
Group 2: This group also contained 625 people. Reminders were sent in the mail to each member
of this group, and the number who registered to vote was 350.
The county clerk claims that the proportion of people to register was significantly greater in group 2. On
the basis of this claim, the clerk recommends that the project be funded for the entire population of
Macek County. Use a 5% level of significance to test the claim that the proportion of potential voters
who registered was greater in group 2, the group that received reminders. Also find the P value of the
sample test statistic.
HW #86: 11.44, 11.45, 11.46