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Slowdown
Reasons and Possible Cures
By: Saurabh Singh and Rishabh
The Growth of any Economy is
Decided By
Government Expenditure
Private Business
Exports
Private Household Consumption
§ Consumer Spending have declined for first time in India in four decades
§ Average monthly spending by an individual in India felt down to R.S. 1,446 in 2017-18 from R.S. 1,501
in 2011-12
§ Spending in rural areas went down by 8.8 %, while in urban areas it went down by 2 (over period of 6
years)
§ Indians now buys less food products like milk, oil, salts, sugar and spices
§ Rural India monthly spending on food was R.S. 643 in 2011-12, which felt down to R.S. 580 in 2017-18
§ While it rose merely by R.S. 3 in urban areas for period 2017-18
§ The less spending on food clearly shows malnutrition has increased
Government Income and Expenditure
§ Indian Government is collecting far less revenue that it is estimated to collect
§ The combined CGST and IGST collections have declined by 3.5% in 2019-20
§ The govt. tax revenue has been dripped from 11.2% in 2016-17 to 10.9% in 2018-19
§ Capital expenditure has slowed down to 40.3% of the budgeted estimate against 44%
§ Govt. fiscal deficit to be 3.7% of G.D.P (I.e. 6 year low)
§ India tax-to-GDP ratio is very low, even behind country like Nepal
§ Government is facing financial crunch, to recover made an announcement to sell few big PSUs like (Air
India, Bharat Petroleum, Shipping Corporation of India)
Private Business
§ Corporate India are not making anything due to lack of demand
§ There is complete slowdown in Indian manufacturing industries
§ There is credit crunch in banking sectors due to ILFS crisis
§ The aggregate sales for auto companies dropped by 11.1 percent in 2018-19
§ Around 2 lakhs jobs was cut a crossed auto dealership in last 6 months
§ Majorities of the infrastructure companies are facing drop in booking order ranging from 3-12%
§ Around 6.65 lakhs housing units still remain unsold for the period 2018-19
§
§
Exports
• Indian exports hits by global tension
• Only 9 products out of 30 were to seen to be moving towards upward rends in export
• Some of the exports products like petroleum, rice, gem and Jewlery and readymade
garments saw the sharpest decline
• India's merchandise exports declined by 9.71%
• 19 out of 30 exporting sectors showed a decline in outbound shipments in Dec 2019
•
Demonetization
• It caused 2-3 % reduction in jobs and national economic activity
• As many as 8.80 million tax payers did not file tax returns
• Real estate shrunk by over 50%
• Farmers wages were severely affected for period 2016-17
• Spending on milk and milk products dropped by 10%
• 55% business down of small traders in four months of demonetization
• Informal business declined to great extent causing lots of small setup to shutdown
•
•
•
Possible Cures
Govt. Should
Increased Economic implement GST
Banks Coming to
expenditure is turnaround by properly in
the aid
the key MSMEs' simplified
manner
Come up with
Reduction in Support
new monitory
income tax entrepreneurship
policy
Conclusion