Instructions: Enter a, c, and e

Confusion Matrix
Test Classification Y
"Positive"
0.2 c

Condition X "+" 0.3 a 0.18 e

"-" 0.7 b 0.02 g

Individual Probabilities Name

P("+") a Incidence of Condition "+"
p("-") b Incidence of "Condition "-"
p(Test POS) c Classification Incidence "POS"
p(Test NEG) d Classification Incidence "NEG"
p(Test POS, "+") e True Positives
p(Test NEG, "+") f False Negatives
p(Test "POS, "-") g False Positives
p(Test "NEG", "-") h True Negatives

Probability Distributions Name

P(X) p(a,b) Marginal Probability of the Co
P(Y) p(c,d) Marginal Probability of the Cla
p(X,Y) p(e,f,g,h) Joint Distribution of X and Y
P(X)p(Y) p(ac,ad,bc,bd)Product Distribution of X and Y

Definition of Independence P(X,Y) = P(X)p(Y)

X, Y Independent or Dependent?
Dependent

Conditional Probabilities Name

p(Test POS | "+") e/a 0.60 True Positive Rate
p(Test NEG | "+") f/a 0.40 False Negative Rate
p(Test POS | "-") g/b 0.03 False Positive Rate
p(Test NEG | "-") h/b 0.97 True Negative Rate

p("+" | Test POS) e/c 0.90 Positive Predictive Value (PPV

p( "-" | Test POS) g/c 0.10 1- PPV
p("+" | Test NEG) f/d 0.15 1- NPV
p("-" | Test NEG) h/d 0.85 Negative Predictive Value (NP

Copyright Daniel Egger/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

fication Y
"Negative"
0.8 d

0.12 f

0.68 h

robability of the Condition

robability of the Classification
bution of X and Y 0.18 e 0.12 f
stribution of X and Y 0.06 ac 0.24 ad
 Point on ROC Curve FP Rate = x axis TP Rate = y axis
tive Rate 0.03 0.60

tive Rate

edictive Value (PPV)

redictive Value (NPV)

al (CC BY 4.0)
0.02 g 0.68 h
0.14 bc 0.56 bd
P Rate = y axis