Context of the Covid-19 pandemic Situation

AS OF 12 MARCH 2020
Data analysis shows that countries that have fewer cases, compared to ones that have major
epidemics, are probably just in an earlier phase of the outbreak rather than on a path to
containment. It is to be noted though, that situations in different countries are heavily influenced by
the systems and policies set in place by governments to deal with Covid-19.
Data also shows that Covid-19 spreads in an exponential manner. On average each infected
person will pass it on 3 times, this means we should be prepared to have 10 times as many cases a
week from today, and up to 100 times as many cases two weeks from today. Example:
WEEK 1 – 100 cases
WEEK 2 – 1.000 cases
WEEK 3 – 10.000 cases

SITUATION IN ITALY
- The whole country is in lockdown, all citizens need a permit to leave their house, most citizens
have stocked up on food and supplies, delivery services have otherwise been organized by
authorized companies
- All businesses are closed until further notice, the only shops open are food stores and
pharmacies, most of these will only allow a few people in at a time and have them keep safety
distance
- Most hospitals are overrun, intensive care units are all mostly full, medical staff are in some
cases having to decide which people to give care to and which not
- The government is giving a daily bulletin on new cases, total cases, healed and deaths
https://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac
82fe38d4138b1
- At the moment the data shows that although contagion is surely slowing because of the
extreme social distancing measures, cases are still growing exponentially
- Walter Ricciardi, Italy’s World Heath Organization representative, has declared the fight on
Covid-19 to be a “long war”, asking citizens to start getting used to the measures in place, and
that “if we all work together” Italy may recover by next summer.
SITUATION IN THE UNITED STATES
- Hospitals are bracing for millions of Americans to be hospitalized as part of the novel
coronavirus outbreak
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-
hospitalizations-2020-3
- Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best
guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US, they include:
o Around half a million deaths
o Around 5 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
o Around 100 million cases overall in the US
- There is very strong evidence that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have
botched their efforts to create and distribute testing kits, with many cases of inadequate testing
capacities reported across the United States
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-
coronavirus/607597
- An example of disastrous mishandling is the Grand Princess cruise ship that docked in Oakland
(San Francisco bay area) with 3,533 people on board (2,422 passengers and
1,111 crew): at least 21 people on board have tested positive for the new coronavirus, out of 46
people who were in the first round of testing (45% of the tested resulted positive).
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/8/21170411/coronavirus-cruise-ship-trump-
white-house-grand-princess-carson-adams
- Reports show that some of passengers of the Grand Princess where given an option to take a
test on disembarking, and media follow ups on as to why testing was not mandatory where met
with a statement that “there were not enough testing kits”.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-update-grand-princess-impatience-
grows-among-passengers-still-aboard-evacuees-spend-night-at-travis/
- Another example of disastrous mishandling is the CDC’s denial of resources to Washington
state health officials, after they had requested testing kits and guidance following the case of a
patient suffering from respiratory problems after visiting Wuhan, China.
They held off for a couple of weeks, but on Feb. 25, local health officials "began performing
coronavirus tests, without government approval", they quickly found many infected, confirming
suspicions that Covid-19 had already established itself on American soil.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-
outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-regulators
- The CDC is also not releasing the data on how many tests are being done. Aggressive and
sustained testing is a powerful tool for fighting the virus, Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy
fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, said extensive testing can give
countries a better picture of the extent of an outbreak. When testing in a country is limited, he
said, the authorities have to take bolder actions to limit movement of people.
- We should therefore expect extensive lockdowns and similar procedures to take place
in the US over the next weeks and months.
SITUATION IN THE REST OF THE WORLD
- German chancellor Angela Merkel warned her people on Wednesday that 60% to 70% of the
populace is likely to be infected.
- British prime minister Boris Johnson warned that “many Brits are likely to die before their time"
amid the pandemic, and "we've all got to be clear, this is the worst public health crisis for a
generation"
- China seems to be reaping the benefits of the drastic measures adapted in the past months,
some of the emergency field hospitals have been closed and medical staff and equipment is
now being re-routed to other countries, mostly Italy for the moment
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/wuhan-closes-makeshift-
hospital-as-new-coronavirus-cases-in-china-drop-sharply-idUSKBN20P01K
- The WHO released an independent report on the situation in China on February 25 th, the panel
of experts has 25 members, including Clifford Lane, clinical director at the National Institutes of
Health of the United States
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-
final-report.pdf
- A few key out takes:
o 20% of infected people in China have needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has
hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries
have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied by people
who have other diseases
o Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been
steadily decreasing
o One of the important factors in containing the epidemic is that China is interviewing all
infected people nationwide about their close contacts with other people, and then they
test all of them. Only in the Wuhan area there are 1,800 teams to do this, each with at
least 5 people. But the effort outside Wuhan is also great. – other countries, the US
included, have nowhere near these capacities at the moment.
o In the words of the WHO: “Faced with a previously unknown virus, China has put in place
perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.”
- Synopsis of WHO report here (in Italian)
https://www.ebookecm.it/news/131/covid-19-l-oms-ha-inviato-25-esperti-internazionali-in-cina-
ed-ecco-i-loro-principali-risultati-di-ricerca-dopo-9-giorni.html
- WHO report press conference video
https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM