Consider the following probabilities as

P(A) = Failure Probability for Line 1

P(B) = Failure Probability for Line 2

P(C) = Failure Probability for Line 3

P(A')= No Failure Probability for Line 1 and similarly for line 2 & 3

Our objective is to find out the failure probability for our combined system i.e. P(A U B U C). As per general
Probability rule it is given as:

P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A∩B) - P(B∩C) - P(A∩C) + P(A∩B∩C) ………………………..……………...Eq. 1

All the lines are considered independent to each other as each line subjected to different pressure stress,
dead weight stress and stress due to seismic loading, so Eq. 1 becomes

P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A).P(B) - P(B).P(C) - P(A).P(C) + P(A).P(B).P(C)

Example:

P(A) = 1E-3

P(B) = 1E-4

P(C) = 1E-5

P(AUBUC) = 1E-3 + 1E-4 + 1E-5 - 1E-3 * 1E-4 - 1E-4 * 1E-5 - 1E-5*1E-3 - 1E-3 * 1E-4 *1E-5

P(AUBUC) = 1.11E-3 - 1E-7 - 1E-9 - 1E-8 - 1E-12

≈ 1.11E-3 (Approximately)

This is called rare event approximation. That means simultaneous failure of all three pipe lines
independently is very rare. Hence Eq. 1 further reduces to

P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

So in the final calculation this term will be neglected and only summation term will appear. This holds
good for any number of pipes (2, 3 or 4...) given that the individual failure probabilities are very small. If
the individual failure probabilities are significant then we will have to use the Actual relation. In our case
Line 3 has more probability of failure than line 2 or 3.

Alternately,

P(AUBUC)= 1-P(A’∩B’∩C’)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………Eq. 2

Similarly Eq. 2 shall be reduced to

P(AUBUC)= 1-P(A’∩B’∩C’)

= 1-P(A’).P(B’).P(C’)

= 1- (1-P(A)) . (1-P(B)) . (1-P(C))