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(2017)2021–2026
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9th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE2017, 21-24 August 2017, Cardiff, UK

Reliability Assessment of Cyber Physical Distribution System

The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling
Liuaa, a a a b b b
Jie Liu , Diangang Wanga, Cheng Zhanga, Zhenyu Tanga, Zhuozhen Jiangb*, Junyong Liub, Yue Xiangb
Assessing State
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feasibility of using
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Information&Telecommunication Co.Lid
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the heat demand-outdoor
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Sichuan,Chengdu610041,China
temperature function
School of
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for aandlong-term
Electrical Engineering
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Engineering and
district
Information ,Sichuan
Information heat demand forecast
,Sichuan University,Chengdu610065,China
University,Chengdu610065,China

Abstract
Abstract I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
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key factors
key factors Franceassessment
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of reliability assessment
for
for the distribution network mainly including network components, cyber medium, network topology are firstly
the distribution network mainly including network components, cyber medium, network topology are firstly analyzed.
analyzed.
Reliability
Reliability assessment
assessment index
index is is then
then summarized
summarized in in terms
terms ofof traditional
traditional physical
physical system,
system, common
common cyber
cyber system
system andand the
the CPDS
CPDS
from extensive
from extensive literature.
literature. This
This isis followed
followed by by aa review
review ofof reliability
reliability assessment
assessment methods
methods in in CPDS,
CPDS, which
which isis mainly
mainly categorized
categorized
Abstract
into
into two
two aspects.
aspects. Finally,
Finally, the
the future
future research
research emphases
emphases areare discussed.
discussed.
©
© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
©District
2017 The
Peer-review
heating
under
networks
Authors. are commonly
Published
responsibility by
of Elsevier
addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the
Ltd. committee
the scientific of the 9th International Conference on Applied Energy.
Peer-review
greenhouseunder
Peer-review under responsibility
gas emissions from of
responsibility thethe
of the scientific
building committee
sector.
scientific These of
committee the
the 9th
systems
of International
9threquire Conference
high investments
International Conferencewhichon Applied Energy.through the heat
are returned
on Applied Energy.
sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
Keywords: Cyber
Keywords: Cyber physical system;
system; distribution
distribution system;
system; reliability
reliability assessment;
assessment; review
review
prolonging the physical
investment return period.
The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand
forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
With
With the
compared thewithdevelopment
results from aof
development active
ofdynamic distribution
active heat
distribution network,
network,
demand model, aa large number
largedeveloped
previously number and of electrical
electricalbyequipment,
of validated the authors. data
equipment, data acquisition
acquisition
equipment
equipment and
The results and computing
computing
showed devices
that whendevices connect
connect
only weather to the
to the
change power system.
power system.
is considered, And
And of
the margin the scale
theerror
scale and complexity
andbecomplexity
could acceptable for of
of the
somedistribution
the distribution
applications
network
(the errorare
network arein becoming
annual demand
becoming unprecedentedly
was lower than
unprecedentedly as the
the increase
as20% of
of demand.
for all weather
increase The
scenarios
demand. The traditional
considered). distribution
traditionalHowever,
distributionafternetwork is
is gradually
introducing
network renovation
gradually
developing
scenarios, into
the highly
error value coupled
increased cyber
up to physical
59.5% distribution
(depending
developing into highly coupled cyber physical distribution system on system
the [1-4]
weather .The
.The CPDS is a specific application form
[1-4]and CPDS
renovation is a specific
scenarios application
combination form in
considered).
in
power
The system
value of from
slope cyber physical
coefficient system
increased on (CPS).
average It is
within said
the that
rangemore
of than
3.8% 80%
up to of
8%
power system from cyber physical system (CPS). It is said that more than 80% of users suffered from interruption users
per suffered
decade, thatfrom interruption
corresponds to the
decreaseof
because
because ofindistribution
the number system
distribution of heating
system hours Therefore,
failure.
failure. of 22-139h it
Therefore, itduring
is the heating
is necessary
necessary to seasonthe
to assess
assess (depending
the reliability
reliability onof
ofthethe
combination
the distribution
distribution of network
weather and
network to
to
renovation
ensure the scenarios
safe considered).
operation of the On the other
power hand,Infunction
system. the intercept
CPDS, powerincreased
system foris7.8-12.7%
monitored perand
decade (depending
controlled by on the
cyber
ensure the safe operation of the power system. In the CPDS, power system is monitored and controlled by cyber
coupledinscenarios).
system The values suggested advanced
could be used to modifytechnologythe function parameters for theoperation
scenarios considered, and
system in aa reliable
reliable way.
way. Though
Though the the advanced information
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
information technology can can improve
improve the the operation of of the
the power
power
system,
system, it
it brings
brings the
the potential
potential negative
negative impact
impact toto the
the power system .. These
power system These security
security risks
risks of
[5]
[5]
of the
the cyber
cyber system
system may
may
lead
lead to feared
to feared blackouts.
blackouts. Comparing
Comparing with
with transmission network, the analysis of distribution system need to take
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.transmission network, the analysis of distribution system need to take
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
** Corresponding
Corresponding author.
Cooling. author. Tel.:
Tel.: +86-182-0280-7247;
+86-182-0280-7247; fax:
fax: +86-028-85465996.
+86-028-85465996.
E-mail
E-mail address
address :jiangzhuozhen@stu.scu.edu.cn
:jiangzhuozhen@stu.scu.edu.cn
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
1876-6102© 2017
1876-6102© 2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of the
the scientific
scientific committee
committee of
of the
the 9th
9th International
International Conference
Conference on
on Applied
Applied Energy.
Energy.

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th International Conference on Applied Energy.
10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.405
2022 Jie Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2021–2026
2 Jie Liu,Dian gang,Cheng Zhang,et al./ Energy Procedia00 (2017) 000–000

more flexible factor into consideration, such as distribution renewable sources, electric vehicles and so on. Owing to
the fact that the intelligent terminal equipment is lack of perfect protection, the distribution network can be attacked
easily. Cyber threats should not be ignored in CPDS. Therefore, it is necessary to study the reliability assessment for
CPDS.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The key factors of reliability assessment in CPDS are
described and analyzed in Section 2. In Section 3 and 4, the common reliability assessment Index and reliability
assessment methods for CPDS are reviewed. Furthermore in Section 5, the prospects are discussed, and this paper is
concluded in Section 6.

2. Key factors in reliability assessment

With the development of distributed generation equipment and energy storage technology, the structure of power
system changes gradually. In the future CPDS, more and more intelligent electronic devices with the abilities of
communication and information processing will be installed in all sectors of power system, so it is necessary for the
cyber system to collect, transmit and deal with mass heterogeneous information. And the information of the power
system is growing up explosively [6].
The reliability of cyber system is related to the network components, cyber medium, network topology, routing
protocol and business objects [7-10]. Moreover, factors in terms of these aspects have become the main obstacles of
reliability management and control. For example, opening protocols (such as IEC 61850 standard) improves the
availability of communication equipment, but brings cyber system more security risks. In the CPDS, the security
risks of cyber system cannot be ignored. Therefore, cyber risks are likely to be transmitted to the physical power
system, even lead to the failure of the power equipment.
Some scholars have simplified the function of the cyber system to the physical system, which is divided into the
direct action type and the indirect action type [11-12]. The former refers to the equipment failure in cyber system will
directly lead to a relevant power equipment failure, for example, the failure of the intelligent terminal controller
causes the circuit breaker to malfunction and even load cut off. The latter refers to the equipment fault of cyber
system does not directly lead to a failure of power equipment, such that monitoring failure may make the operating
staff can not identify potential risk timely, which does not immediately lead to power system fault.
The physical system can be affected by the cyber system. For example, Vulnerabilities of SCADA
communication links can be exploited by an attacker to gain higher privilege level and compromise the system.
Having gained higher privilege level, an attacker can create a fake outage scenario and send false trip signals to
remote controlled switches. In order for a fake outage to seem authentic, an attacker should imitate a real outage
scenario of a power distribution system. Finally, the users suffered from power interruption.
The cyber system can be affected by the physical system in some aspects including equipment, transmission
medium, operational environment. Besides, it is worth mentioning that the interaction between the cyber system and
the physical system is tight indeed. The reliability may be change along with some factors (delay of data
transmission, packet loss rate and throughput). For example, the corresponding packet loss rate would be higher at
the longer the communication distance, which lead to decrease the reliability for the cyber system more easily [13].

3. Reliability assessment index for the CPDS

3.1. Reliability assessment index for distribution network

The common reliability assessment index [14-16] for distribution network could be grouped into three categories, as
listed in Table 1.

Table 1.Reliability assessment index for distribution network.

Category Name Acronym Definition (“/”means divide)
Equipment shutdown rate per year - Times of failure/years
Equipment
Equipment interruption time per year - Time of failure statistics /years
 Jie Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2021–2026 2023
Jie Liu,Diangang,Cheng Zhang,et al./ Energy Procedia00 (2017) 000–000 3

Equipment average interruption time - Shutdown rate per year / interruption time
per year
Customer multiple sustained interruption or - Number of customers with multiple
momentary interruption ratio sustained interruption/ total number

Customers Customer average interruption frequency index
Customer average interruption duration index
Customer electric multiple interruption index
System average interruption frequency index
System average interruption duration index
System System total average interruption duration index
Average system availability index
Average system interruption frequency index
Average system interruption duration index
Momentary average interruption frequency index
CAIFI Number of customers affected by power
outage/ number of customers with outage
CAIDI Interruption time/number of customers
with power outages
CELM number of customers with multiple
outages/ total number of customers
SAIFI The ratio of the number of customers per
to the total number of customers
SAIDI Interruption time/number of customers
STAIDI Interruption time/total number of users
ASAI Supply electricity hours/ demand hours
ASIFI Times of loss of load/total supply load
ASIDI Time of loss of load(min)/total supply load
MAIFI Momentary interruption/total number

3.2. Reliability assessment index for cyber system.

The common reliability assessment index [17-18] for cyber system are listed in Table 2.

Table 2.Reliability assessment index for the cyber system.

Region First-grade Index Second-grade Index
Topological robustness index Effectiveness index
Network control Authentication and access control index Control data integrity index
Control data confidentiality index
Service Service failure frequency Service average terminal time
network
Customer Service support time Support response capability
Data security index Data integrity index
Network Management integrity index Management data privacy index
management
Survivability index Failure rate
Transmission System control Average transmission delay interval Mean time between failures
network
Average transmission error interval Mean time to repair
Mean down time Availability
Equipment
Equipment physical security Anti-electromagnetic interference index Electrical safety index
and
environment environmental
safety Air / soil environmental index Communication building index

3.3. Reliability assessment index for CPDS

Reference [19] presented a formal definition of resilience and assessment metric for resilience, which can be used
to assess reliability in the CPDS. Report [20] presented a node availability index to assess the reliability in CPDS
taking the coupling factor into consideration. However, the reliability assessment methods of CPDS are mostly based
2024 Jie Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2021–2026
4 Jie Liu,Dian gang,Cheng Zhang,et al./ Energy Procedia00 (2017) 000–000

on the traditional index for either the cyber or the physical system at present. For example, in the reliability of
distribution system, few took the cyber factors (lack of information, information delay etc.) into account. Besides,
the existing index just can reflect the operational status of a CPDS without highlighting its characteristics. For the
real reliability assessment of CPDS, the impacts from both the cyber and physical parts should be considered. In [21],
a quantitative analysis model of system reliability was given, which considered the interaction between a cyber
system and a physical system. And SAIDI and MAIFI were utilized as reliability assessment index for the combined
system. Considering the information function of circuit breaker and transformer, the reliability calculation method
was studied in [22] by non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Then LOLP (loss of load probability) and EENS
(expected loss of energy) were used in it to assess the reliability of the integration system.
In the fact, current research focused on model of reliability assessment of CPDS mostly. Few index took the
function of two systems into account on reliability assessment in CPDS. In fact that integration of the cyber system
and the physical system is strengthening gradually. And the characteristics of the cyber system cannot be ignored on
research of reliability assessment index in CPDS. The relationship between the cyber system and the physical system
should be considered primarily. In case that they are combined by a faint link, the traditional reliability assessment
index is applicable. However, if they are interrelated closely, it is important to improve the existing reliability
assessment index. Indeed, designing a new index that can reflect the relationship between the cyber system and the
physical system is necessary for reliability assessment of CPDS.

4. Reliability assessment methods for CPDS

Traditional reliability assessment methods include mainly analytic method and simulation method. The common
reliability assessment index (such as the component failure rate, mean time to repair, planned maintenance rate) are
calculated by means of the traditional methods. Besides, the topological information and component reliability
parameters of distribution system are available. Simulation method is an available and effective solution to assess
reliability. Moreover, the results of the probability distribution for reliability assessment index can be obtained.
However, the analytic method is more widely utilized in engineering applications than the simulation method owing
to time of calculation in the large scale system [16]. The failure-mode-effect-analysis (FMEA) is one of the traditional
analytic methods. In [23], the state of the CPS was described in a form of table. Then this reference got the fault
state set and carried on the reliability analysis based on the table. Besides, this method can be extended to the CPDS.
In addition, analytic methods are mostly applicable to analyses reliability for the scenarios, in which the system is
small-scale only considering intelligent devices, transmission line protection, etc. Furthermore, the sequential Monte
Carlo method as a common simulation method was utilized to assess reliability in distribution network usually [24].
The reliability of foreign power supply was reviewed in [25]. In [26], the method of reliability analysis and the
evaluation of power system were analyzed synthetically. Besides, the future research of reliability assessment based
on current research on cyber physical power system was discussed. Existing reliability assessment methods can be
grouped into three categories for CPDS in terms of analysis method: 1)cyber system and physical system both used
analytic method,; 2)the cyber system used the analytic method but the physical system used simulation method;
3)cyber system and physical system both used simulation method.
Several scholars did some research on the reliability analysis of CPDS. The methods of reliability assessment in
the current distribution network mainly were focused on the single physical level [27]. Besides, its corresponding
models were still constantly improved. Few took the integration of the cyber system and the physical system in
distribution network into consideration for reliability assessment. At present, the research on reliability and safety of
CPDS has become one of the most important hot topics in academia and industry at home and abroad. Scholars
researched the interaction between the cyber system and the physical system from different direction.
Some research paid attention to only modeling, analyzing and calculating the reliability of the cyber system,
without considering the impact of cyber system failure on the grid. The modeling technology in the CPDS was
studied in [3]. In [28], a grid security analysis model considering the cyber system was proposed. Besides, a
reliability assessment model for the CPDS was discussed. In addition, there are also some researches focus on the
reliability and safety assessment of specific systems (such as relay protection systems, substation automation
systems) or specific equipment (such as circuit breakers, transformer). In [22], the reliability model of the circuit
breaker monitoring and control function was constructed firstly, then, the results of reliability index were obtained
 Jie Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2021–2026 2025
Jie Liu,Diangang,Cheng Zhang,et al./ Energy Procedia00 (2017) 000–000 5

by the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the reliability of power system under the function of the
cyber system was assessed quantitatively.
Other research focused on the specific application scenarios of the CPDS, such as supervisory control and data
acquisition (SCADA)[29], wide area closed-loop control systems, wide area protection systems, wide area
measurement System (WAMS) [30], etc. It is worth mentioning that the impact of the cyber system failure on the
distribution system should be analyzed. In [5], the impact of network attacks on the grid was studied. S.F. Bush [21]
studied the reliability of the power system with higher transmission rate and shorter data frame, and provided a
quantitative analysis model of system reliability considering the interaction between distribution network and
communication network. Therefore, we can learn from it how to consider the interaction in the CPDS.

5. Prospect of research

1) At present, there are a lot of achievements which are studying the influence of the cyber system on the
physical system. And many scholars researched on how to strengthen the information security in the power system,
or how to improve the level of defensing against the risk and malicious attacks [31]. However, the interaction
mechanism and interaction strength is not considered exactly, moreover, the characteristics of customers and
markets are not quantified in CPDS. In addition, the correlation of factors under the coupling of cyber system and
physical system need to be further excavated.
2) The research on theories and methods of the security analysis in the CPDS is necessary to step forward still. In
case that the cyber system and the physical system are closely interrelated, it is important to improve the reliability
assessment index or design a new index that can reflect the links between the cyber system and the physical system.
In order to assess reliability in CPDS, it also needs to consider the multiple factors interleaving in the complicated
operation environment.
3) The situation of integration of the cyber system and the physical system call for new theories and methods on
reliability assessment in CPDS. For example, in order to construct the model of CPDS precisely, the “structure-
situation” theory could be carried out by the means of interdependent networks theory and traditional network
analysis method. Network topology and coupling relationship of the system can be represented for “structure”. And
“situation” can represent as the status of different objects (those are components, links, subsystem, etc.) in systems.
4) In the future research, more cyber-attack scenarios in the CPDS should be considered and analyzed. More
attack targets and countermeasures should be incorporated into the reliability models and the integrity of the model
would be improved. A more comprehensive and realistic probabilistic model describing the impacts of cyber attacks
should be investigated. Additionally, other factors that may affect the reliability of the CPDS would be analyzed
with the cyber attacks, and their impacts on the overall system reliability will be evaluated.
5) The future energy system is a complex system of the cyber system and the physical system, and the interaction
of the information flow and power flow is the leading direction of research. However, there was no systematic
theories and methods in the analysis of heterogeneous data, the integration of multi-source information and
integrated security should be modeling in CPDS, which needs further research and exploration.

6. Conclusion

The power system has been developed from the traditional network to the complex network system which
integrates the communication network, the information network and the power network. Owing to the fact that the
distribution network contains a large number of intelligent terminal equipment without perfect protection, the
distribution system can be attacked in CPDS easily. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study
the reliability assessment for CPDS. In this paper, reliability assessment index for the cyber system and the physical
system are summarized, and methods of the CPDS based on the analysis of the factors of reliability are reviewed.
Furthermore, key points of future research on reliability of CPDS are discussed in terms of the key factors, index,
methods, etc. The transformation of the traditional distribution network into the CPDS is a challenging task, yet it is
achievable.
2026 Jie Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2021–2026
6 Jie Liu,Dian gang,Cheng Zhang,et al./ Energy Procedia00 (2017) 000–000

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