JAWABAN ASISTENSI 1 – 17-02-2016

PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN MANAJERIAL – BHS. INGGRIS

Decision Making Environments (Conditions)—Certainty, Under-Risk, and Uncertainty

SOAL 1

a. Under-risk. The decision maker have historical data about the snowfall level. From these historical
data, he/she can estimates the chance of each state of nature.
b. Uncertainty. Similikiti doesn’t know the possibilities of each condition will occur in the future. She
only has limited amount of restaurant information. So, she only estimates her alternatives by using
uncertainty decision criterion.
c. Certainty. The treasurer know exactly the interest rate for each bank, so he/she will know the
outcome of every alternative. Furthermore, the accurate decision to deposit excess state funds can
be made.
d. Certainty. The manager has known the problem caused by the current replenishment system
without analyzing the potential problem alternatives.
e. Under-risk. By using portion, the manager use chance or probabilities to calculate the outcome of
defect refrigerator.

SOAL 2 (UTS 2012)

The Maximax Criterion

With the maximax criterion, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernik selects the decision that will result in the
maximum of the maximum payoffs. By using this criterion, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernik assumes that
the most favorable state of nature for each decision alternative will occur.

The first step for using this criterion is select the maximum payoff for each decision, that is 0
(indiferent) for first alternative, Rp8.000.000 for second alternative, and Rp6.500.000 for the third
alternative. Of the three maximum payoffs, the maximum is Rp8.000.000 (dark red cell); thus, the
corresponding decision is to sell t-shirt product (2nd alternative).

Kondisi Alam
Alternatif
Rendah Menengah Tinggi
1 Tidak menjual produk baru 0 0 0
2 Menjual produk kaos Rp1.000.000 Rp5.000.000 Rp8.000.000
3 Menjual produk tas anyaman Rp850.000 Rp1.500.000 Rp6.500.000

The Maximin Criterion

With the maximin criterion, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernikl selects the decision that will reflect the
maximum of the minimum payoffs. By using this criterion, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernik assumes that
the minimum payoff will occur. Of these minimum payoffs, the maximum is selected.

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 The first step for using this criterion is select the minimum payoff for each decision, that is 0
(indiferent) for first alternative, Rp1.000.000 for second alternative, and Rp850.000 for the third
alternative. Of the three minimum payoffs, the maximum is Rp1.000.000 (dark red cell); thus, the
corresponding decision is to sell t-shirt product (2nd alternative).

Kondisi Alam
Alternatif
Rendah Menengah Tinggi
1 Tidak menjual produk baru 0 0 0
2 Menjual produk kaos Rp1.000.000 Rp5.000.000 Rp8.000.000
3 Menjual produk tas anyaman Rp850.000 Rp1.500.000 Rp6.500.000

The Minimax Regret Criterion

With minimax regret criterion, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernik attempts to avoid regret by selecting the
decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret. The regret number means the decision
maker would be dissapointed that he/she had not chosen the largest payoff for each state of nature. In
fact, the decision maker would regret the decision to choose the choice and the best choice.

First, select the maximum payoff under each state of nature. The maximum payoff under low
economic growth is Rp1.000.000, under modarate economic growth is Rp5.000.000, and under high
economic growth is Rp8.000.000. All other payoffs under the respective states of nature are
subtracted from these amounts, as follows:

Low Economic Growth Moderate Economic Growth High Economic Growth

1,000,000 – 0 = 1,000,000 5,000,000 – 0 = 5,000,000 8,000,000 – 0 = 8,000,000
1,000,000 – 1,000,000 = 0 5,000,000 – 5,000,000 = 0 8,000,000 – 8,000,000 = 0
1,000,000 – 850,000 = 150,000 5,000,000 – 1,500,000 = 3,500,000 8,000,000 – 6,500,000 = 1,500,000

These values represent the regret that the decision maker would experience if a decision were made
that resulted in less than the maximum payoff. The values are summarized in a modified version of the
payoff table known as a regret table, shown below.

Kondisi Alam
Alternatif
Rendah Menengah Tinggi
1 Tidak menjual produk baru 1.000.000 5.000.0000 8.000.000
2 Menjual produk kaos 0 0 0
3 Menjual produk tas anyaman 150.000 3.500.000 1.500.000

To make the decision according to the minimax regret criterion, the maximum regret for each decision
must be determined, that is 8,000,000 for first alternative, 0 (indifferent) for second alternative, and
3,500,000 for the third alternative. The decision corresponding to the minimum of these regret values
is then selected, that is 0 for the second alternative. Thus, Perusahaan Pernak-Pernik should be to sell
t-shirt product.

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SOAL 3

a. Before construct the payoff table, you have to know the decision alternative and the state of nature
will be happen for the situation faced by the decision maker. There are three decision alternative,
that is (1) Invest in your friend clothing store as Rp20 million, (2) Open your own Nasi Pecel Kediri
Restaurant as Rp15 million, and (3) Study abroad at France for 12 month as Rp15 million. The
state of nature that will be occur is boom, normal, and crisis economic condition. Thus, the initial
payoff table shown below.

State of Nature
Decision Alternatives
Boom Normal Crisis
Invest in your friend
clothing store as Rp20
(1) (2) (3)
million (20% of total
capital required)
Open your own Nasi Pecel
Kediri Restaurant as Rp15 (4) (5) (6)
million
Study abroad at France for
(7) (8) (9)
12 month as Rp15 million

Then, the next step is to fill the blank cell for each alternatives. The available information in the
problem lead us to provide profit as payoff value because the available data is about revenue and
cost; thus we will get profit. The profit values have to be given in year unit so the profit can be
compared apple-to-apple.
For the first alternative, we can fill the cells 1, 2, and 3. The profit which will be given by your
friend is only 20% of total profit because the capital contribution is only 20%. So, the Cell 1 can be
filled by 20% x Rp50 million x 12 month = Rp120 million, Cell 2 can be filled by 20% x Rp25
million x 12 month = Rp60 million, and Cell 3 can be filled by 20% x Rp10 million x 12 month =
Rp24 million.
For the second alternative, you have to calculate the revenue and the cost for each portion sold for
each state of nature. We assume there are 50 weeks available to open your business. So, the Cell 4
can be filled by 75 portions x (Rp8.000 – Rp3.500) x 5 days x 50 weeks = Rp84.375 million, Cell 5
can be filled by 50 portions x (Rp8.000 – Rp3.500) x 5 days x 50 weeks = Rp56.250 million, and
Cell 6 can be filled by 25 portions x (Rp8.000 – Rp3.500) x 5 days x 50 weeks = Rp28.125 million.
For the third alternative, you have to calculate remaining available fund after subtracted by your
expenditure. But, because of the available fund is provided in Euro currency, you have to exchange
the rate become Rupiah. In the problem stated that €1 = Rp13,000. So, the Cell 7 can be filled by
(1,000 – 700) x Rp13,000 x 12 months = Rp46.8 million, Cell 8 can be filled by (1,000 – 800) x
Rp13,000 x 12 months = Rp31.2 million, and Cell 9 can be filled by (1,000 – 1,000) x Rp13,000 x 12
months = Rp0 million.
But, the fund invested for each alternative is a little bit different between one and another and the
unused fund will be saved without interest. Thus, you have to subtract the profit values which
calculated before by the money invested and have to be add the unused money which saved
without interest, as follows:
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 State of Nature
Decision Alternatives
Boom Normal Crisis
Invest in your friend
(1) 120 million – 20 (2) 60 million – 20 (3) 24 million – 20
clothing store as Rp20
million + 0 million million + 0 million million + 0 million
million (20% of total
= Rp100 million = Rp40 million = Rp4 million
capital required)
(4) 84.375 million – (5) 56.25 million – (6) 28.125 million –
Open your own Nasi Pecel
15 million + 5 15 million + 5 15 million + 5
Kediri Restaurant as Rp15
million = Rp74.375 million = Rp46.25 million = Rp18.125
million
million million million
(7) 46.8 million - 15 (8) 31.2 million - 15 (9) 0 million - 15
Study abroad at France for
million – 5 million = million – 5 million = million – 5 million =
12 month as Rp15 million
Rp36.8 million Rp21.2 million (Rp10 million)
*) The value in the bracket means negative value.
Thus, the table above show you the final payoff table for this problem.
b. If you are a pessimistic, you will use minimax decision criterion.
First, select the minimum payoff for each decision alterntives, that is Rp4 million for first
alternative, Rp18.125 million for second alternative, and (Rp10 million) for the third alternative.
Of the three minimum payoffs, the maximum is Rp18.125 million; thus, the corresponding decision
is to open your own Nasi Pecel Kediri Restaurant (2nd alternative).
c. If you are a optimistic, you will use maximax decision criterion.
First, select the maximum payoff for each decision alterntives, that is Rp100 million for first
alternative, Rp74.375 million for second alternative, and Rp36,8 million for the third alternative.
Of the three maximum payoffs, the maximum is Rp100 million; thus, the corresponding decision is
to invest at your friend clothing store (1st alternative).
d. If you try to minimize regret, you have to construct the regret table.
First, select the maximum payoff under each state of nature. The maximum payoff under boom
economic condition is Rp100 million, under normal economic condition is Rp46.25 million, and
under crisis economic condition is Rp18.125 million. So, the regret values are summarized shown
below.
State of Nature
Decision Alternatives
Boom Normal Crisis
Invest in your friend
clothing store as Rp20
0 million 6.25 million 14.125 million
million (20% of total
capital required)
Open your own Nasi Pecel
Kediri Restaurant as Rp15 25.625 million 0 million 0 million
million
Study abroad at France for
63.2 million 25.05 million 28.125 million
12 month as Rp15 million

To make the decision according to the minimax regret criterion, the maximum regret for each
decision must be determined, that is Rp14.125 million for first alternative, Rp25.625 million for

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 second alternative, and Rp63.2 million for the third alternative. The decision corresponding to the
minimum of these regret values is then selected, that is Rp14.125 million for the first alternative.
Thus, you should be to invest at your friend clothing store (1st alternative).
e. If you try to compromise with coefficient of optimistic as 0.6, you have to use Hurwicz criterion.
The Hurwicz criterion strikes a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion. The
principle underlying this decision criterion is that the decision maker is neither totally optimistic
(as the maximax criterion assumes) not totally pessimistic (as maximin criterion assumes).
By using this criterion decision, the maximum payoff be multiplied by coefficient of optimistic (α)
and the minimum payoff be multiplied by 1 – α. So, the calculated for this problem shown below.
Alternative Decision Values
Invest in your friend clothing (100 million x 0.6) + (4 million x 0.4) = Rp61.6 million
store as Rp20 million (20% of
total capital required)
Open your own Nasi Pecel Kediri (74.375 million x 0.6) + (18.125 million x 0.4) = Rp51.875
Restaurant as Rp15 million million
Study abroad at France for 12 (36.8 million x 0.6) – (10 million x 0.4) = Rp18.08 million
month as Rp15 million
The Hurwicz criterion specifies selection of the decision alternative corresponding the maximum
weighted value, which is Rp61.6 million. Thus, the decision would be to invest at your friend
clothing store (1st alternative).
f. If you treat similar probability for all of the state of nature, you have to use equal likelihood
criterion decision. This criterion weights each state of nature equally, thus assuming that the
states of nature are equally likely to occur. Because there are three state of nature in this problem,
we assign a weight of 1/3 to each one. Next, we multiply these weights by each payoff for each
decision:
Alternative Decision Values
Invest in your friend clothing 100(1/3) + 40(1/3) + 4(1/3) = Rp48 million
store as Rp20 million (20% of
total capital required)
Open your own Nasi Pecel Kediri 74.375(1/3) + 46.25(1/3) + 18.125(1/3) = Rp46.25 million
Restaurant as Rp15 million
Study abroad at France for 12 36.8(1/3) + 21.2(1/3) – 10(1/3) = Rp16 million
month as Rp15 million
We select the decision that has the maximum of these weighted values, which is Rp48 million. So,
the decision would be to invest at your friend clothing store (1st alternative).

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