HL Probability IB Exam Questions 1

HL Probability IB Exam Questions

1. Bag 1 contains 4 red cubes and 5 blue cubes. Bag 2 contains 7 red cubes and
2 blue cubes. Two cubes are drawn at random, the first from Bag 1 and the
second from Bag 2.
a) Find the probability that the cubes are the same colour.
b) Given that the cubes selected are of different colours, find the
probability that the red cube was selected from Bag 1. N06 P1 TZ0 Q4

1 1 7
2. Let A and B be the events such that P ( A)= , P ( B | A)= and P( A∪B)= .
5 4 10
a) Find P (A∩ B) .
b) Find P ( B) .
c) Show that A and B are not independent. M06 P1 TZ0 Q13

3. Box A contains 6 red balls and 2 green balls. Box B contains 4 red balls and 3 green
balls. A fair, ordinary, six-sided die is thrown. If an even number is obtained, a ball
is selected from Box A; if an odd number is obtained, a ball is selected from Box B.
a) Calculate the probability that the ball selected was red.
b) Given that the ball selected was red, calculate the probability that it came from
Box B. N05 P1 TZ0 Q10

4. In a game a player pays an entrance fee of $ n . He then selects one number

from 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 and rolls three standard dice.
• If his chosen number appears on all three dice, he wins four times his entrance fee.
• If his number appears on exactly two of the dice, he wins three times his entrance fee.
• If his number appears on exactly one die, he wins twice his entrance fee.
• If his number does not appear on any of the dice, he wins nothing.

a) Copy and complete the probability table below.

Profit ($) −n n 2n 3n
75
Probability
216

b) Show that the player's expected profit is $ − ( 17 n

216 ).

c) What should the entrance fee be, so that the player's expected loss per
game is 34 cents? N05 P2 TZ0 Q3

CdK - OFS HS - 2012

HL Probability IB Exam Questions 2

5. There are 25 disks in a bag. Some of them are black and the rest are white.
Two are simultaneously selected at random. Given that the probability of
selecting two disks of the same colour is equal to the probability of selecting
two disks of different colours, how many black discs are there in the bag. N05 P1 TZ0 Q18

6. In a survey of 50 people, it is found that 40 own a television and 21 own a

computer. Four do not own either a computer or a television. A person is
chosen at random from this group.
a) Find the probability that this person owns both a television and a computer.
b) Given that this person owns a computer, find the probability that he also
owns a television. M05 P1 TZ1 Q10

7. The table below shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X .
x 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.2 a b 0.25
a) Given that E(X) = 1.55, find the value of a and b .
b) Calculate Var(X). M05 P1 TZ2 Q3

8. Robert travels to work by train every weekday from Monday to Friday. The
probability that he catches the 08:00 train on Monday is 0.66. The probability
that he catches the 08:00 train on any other weekday is 0.75. A weekday is
chosen at random.
a) Find the probability that he catches the train on that day.
b) Given that he catches the 08:00 train on that day, find the probability
that the chosen day is Monday. M04 P1 512 Q14

9. A fair six-sided die, with sides numbered 1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , is thrown.

Find the mean and variance of the score. N04 P1 TZ0 Q6

1 6
10. Given that ( A∪B)' =∅ , P( A' | B)= and P (A)= , find P( B) . M05 P1 TZ2 Q16
3 7

11. Jack and Jill play a game, by throwing a die in turn. If the die shows a 1 , 2 , 3 or 4,
the player who threw the die wins the game. If the die shows a 5 or 6, the other player
has the next throw. Jack plays first and the game continues until there is a winner.
a) Write down the probability that Jack wins on his first throw.
b) Calculate the probability that Jill wins on her first throw.
c) Calculate the probability that Jack wins the game. M04 P2 511 Q2

CdK - OFS HS - 2012

HL Probability IB Exam Questions 3

12. Andrew shoots 20 arrows at a target. He has a probability of 0.3 of hitting the target.
All shots are independent of each other. Let X denote the number of arrows hitting
the target.
a) Find the mean and standard deviation of X .
b) i) Find P ( X =5) .
ii) Find P (4 ≤ X ≤ 8) .
Bill also shoots arrows at a target, with the probability of 0.3 of hitting the target.
All shots are independent of each other
c) Calculate the probability that Bill hits the target for the first time
on his third shot.
d) Calculate the minimum number of shots required for the probability
of at least one shot hitting the target to exceed 0.99. M06 P2 TZ0 Q4B

13. A team of five students is to be chosen at random to take part in a debate. The
team is to be chosen from a group of eight medical students and three law students.
a) Find the probability that only medical students are chosen.
b) Find the probability that all three law students are chosen. M05 P1 TZ2 Q8

14. A bag contains a very large number of ribbons. One quarter of the ribbons are
yellow and the rest are blue. Ten ribbons are selected at random from the bag.
a) Find the expected number of yellow ribbons.
b) Find the probability that exactly 6 of these ribbons are yellow.
c) Find the probability that at least two of these ribbons are yellow.
d) Find the most likely number of yellow ribbons selected.
e) What assumptions have you made about the probability of selecting a
yellow ribbon? N06 P2 TZ0 Q2A

15. The random variable X follows a Poisson distribution. Given that P ( X ≤ 1)=0.2 :
a) Find the mean of the distribution.
b) Find P ( X ≤ 2) . N06 P1 TZ0 Q7

16. The number of car accidents occurring per day on a highway follows a Poisson
distribution with mean 1.5.
a) Find the probability that more than two accidents will occur on a given Monday.
b) Given that at least one accident occurs on another day, find the probability that
that more than two accidents occur on that day. M06 P1 TZ0 Q16

CdK - OFS HS - 2012

HL Probability IB Exam Questions 4

17. The following diagram shows the probability density function for the random
variable X , which is normally distributed with mean 250 and standard deviation 50.

Find the probability represented by the shaded region. M04 P1 510 Q7

18. A certain type of vegetable has a weight which follows a normal distribution
with a mean 450 grams and a standard deviation 50 grams.
a) In a load of 2000 of these vegetables, calculate the expected number with
a weight greater than 525 grams.
b) Find the upper quartile of the distribution. N06 P1 TZ0 Q9

19. The weights in grams of loaves of bread sold at a supermarket are normally
distributed with mean 200 g . The weights of 88% of the loaves are less than 220 g .
Find the standard deviation. M06 P1 TZ0 Q8

2
20. A random variable X is normally distributed with mean μ and variance σ ,
where P ( X > 6.2)=0.9474 and P ( X < 9.8)=0.6368 .
Calculate the value of μ and σ . N05 P1 TZ0 Q12

21. The weights of adult males of a type of dog may be assumed to be normally
distributed with a mean 25 kg and standard deviation 3 kg. Given that 30%
of the weights lie between 25 kg and x kg, where x > 25, find the value of x. M04 P1 511 Q6

22. Let X be a normal random variable with mean 25 and variance 4.

Find P (∣ X −25∣<3) . M05 P1 TZ1 Q6

CdK - OFS HS - 2012

HL Probability IB Exam Questions 5

23. A company buys 44% of its stock of bolts from manufacturer A and the rest from
manufacturer B. The diameters of the bolts produced by each manufacturer follow
a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.16 mm.
The mean diameter of the bolts produced by manufacturer A is 1.56 mm.
24.2% of the bolts from manufacturer B have a diameter less than 1.52 mm.
a) Find the mean diameter of the bolts produced by manufacturer B.
A bolt is chosen at random from the company's stock.
b) Show that the probability that the diameter is less than 1.52 mm is 0.312 (3sf).
c) The diameter of the bolt is found to be less than 1.52 mm. Find the probability
that the bolt was produced by manufacturer B.
d) Manufacturer B makes 8000 bolts in one day. It makes a profit of $1.50 on each
bolt sold, on condition that its diameter measures between 1.52 mm and 1.83 mm.
Bolts whose diameters measure less than 1.52 mm must be discarded at a loss
of $0.85 per bolt.
Bolts whose diameters measure over 1.83 mm are sold at a reduced profit of
$0.50 per bolt.
Find the expected profit for manufacturer B. M05 P2 TZ2 Q4

24. Ian and Karl have been chosen to represent their countries in the Olympic
discus throw. Assume that the distance thrown by each athlete is normally
distributed. The mean distance thrown by Ian in the past year was 60.33 m
with a standard deviation of 1.95 m.
a) In the past year, 80% of Ian's throws have been longer than x metres.
Find x , correct to two decimal places.
b) In the past year, 80% of Karl's throws have been longer than 56.52 m.
If the mean distance of his throws was 59.39 m, find the standard
deviation of his throws, correct to two decimal places.
c) This year Karl's throws have a mean of 59.50 m and a standard deviation
of 3.00 m. Ian's throws still have a mean of 60.33 m and a standard deviation
1.95 m. In a competition, an athlete must have at least one throw of 65 m or
more in the first round to qualify for the final round. Each athlete is allowed
three throws in the first round.
i) Determine which of these two athletes is more likely to qualify
for the final on their first throw.
ii) Find the probability that both athletes qualify for the final. N04 P2 TZ0 Q4

CdK - OFS HS - 2012

HL Probability IB Exam Questions 6

Solutions
38 8
1) a) = 0.469 b) = 0.186
81 43

1 11 37 16
2) a) b) c) Shows P ( A∩B)≠P( A)×P ( B) 3) a) = 0.661 b) = 0.432
20 20 56 37

4. a) b) AG c) $4.32
Profit ($) −n n 2n 3n
125 75 15 1
Probability
216 216 216 216

5
5) There are 15 or 10 black discs. 6) a) P (T ∩C )=0.3 b) P (T |C )= =0.0714
7

8 20
7) a) a = 0.3 and b = 0.25 b) Var(X) = 1.15 8) 0.732 b) 0.180 9) E(X) = and Var(X) =
3 9

3 2 2 3
10) P ( B)= =0.429 11) a) b) c)
7 3 9 4

12) a) Mean = 6 and Std. Dev. = 2.05 b) i) P ( X =5)=0.179 ii) P (4 ≤ X ≤ 8)=0.780 c) 0.147 d) n = 13

4 28 2
13) a) P(only medical students) = = 0.121 b) P(three law students) = = = 0.061
33 462 33

( )( ) ( )
x 10−x
14) a) E(X) = 2.5 b) P(X = 6) = 0.0162 c) P ( X ≥2)=0.756 d) P ( X = x)= 10 1 3
≈ 2
x 4 4
e) The probability that a ribbon is yellow remains constant.

15) a) λ= 2.99 b) P ( X ≤2)=0.424 16) a) P ( A>2)=0.191 b) P ( A>2| A≥1)=0.246

17) Prob. = 0.645 18) a) 134 b) Q3 = 484 19) σ=17.0 g 20) σ=1.83 and μ=9.16

21) x = 27.5 22) P (∣ X −25∣<3)=0.866 23) a) μ=1.63 b) AG c) 0.434 d) $6605.28

24) a) x = 58.69 m b) σ=3.41 c) i) Karl since P (Karl's throw ≥65)>P (Ian's throw≥65) ii) 0.00239

CdK - OFS HS - 2012