REGRESSION

Regression deals with “prediction with precision” and it generally does the following:
(i) Identifies the regression line (that is best fitting straight line) for a scatter plot
between two variables
(ii) It uses variable X (which is the horizontal axis of the scattergram) and a variable Y
(which is the vertical axis of the scatter plot)
(iii) X is the independent variable or the predictor variable
Y is the dependent variable and or the criterion variable
(iv) Two concepts are used to describe the regression line, they include:
(a).The slope of the regression line
(b).The intercept; the point at which the regression line touches the vertical
axis
(v) The regression can be used to make predictions; by estimating the most likely
score on variable Y for any given score on variable X.
(vi) The standard error can be estimated: which is the variability of any statistical
estimate. In regression calculation, the standard error of the slope and the
standard error of the intercept can be calculated.
Standard error is normally the standard deviation indicating the likely spread of
any estimate.

10

7
SOIL TEMPERATURE

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
SOIL MOISTURE

Figure 1.1: scatter diagram (scattergram) of the relationship between soil

temperature (X) and soil moisture (Y).
A regression line is chosen, which gives the closest fit to the points on the
scattergram. The sum of the deviation ( Σ d ) of the scatter diagram points from
the regression line should be minimal (the sum of the squared deviations be
minimal) this is termed as the least squares solution.

The regression line for any scattergram, quantifies two things:

(i) The intercept (denoted as α); Point at which the regression line cuts the vertical
axis at X=0 .this is the number of units of measurements from zero point of the
vertical axis. It can be positive or negative value depending on whether the
vertical axis is cut above or below its zero point.

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 (ii) The slope of the regression line denoted as b. This is the gradient of the best
fitting line through the points on the scattergram. It can be positive or negative.
Slope is the number of units that the regression line moves up the vertical axis for
each unit it moves along the horizontal axis.
Example; if the slope horizontal axis is 20 and the vertical axis is 4, the slope will
be 4/20 which is equal to + 2. This means that for every increase of one unit on
the horizontal axis (X axis), there is a corresponding increase of 2 on the vertical
axis (Y axis) or vice versa if the slope is
-2 .

Calculation
Step one: set out the measurement scores as shown in Table 1.2

Table 1.2: essential steps in the calculation of correlation coefficient

X (soil temp) Y (soil

Site moisture) X2 XxY
1 8 2 64 16
2 3 6 9 18
3 9 4 81 36
4 7 5 49 35
5 2 7 4 14
6 3 7 9 21
7 9 2 81 18
8 8 3 64 24
9 6 5 36 30
10 7 4 49 28
ΣX =¿ 62 ΣY =¿ 45 ΣΥ 2 = 446 ΣΧΥ =¿ 240

Step two: determine the slope of the regression line (b)

b=
ΣΧY − ( ΣΧΣY
Ν )
ΣΧY 2
ΣΧ 2−
Ν

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b=
240− ( 6210x 45 )
( 62)2
446−
10

b=
240− ( 2790
10 )
3844
446−
10

240−270
b=
446−384.4

−39
b=
61.6

b=−0.63

The slope of the regression line is negative, it moves downwards from top left to bottom
right. For every unit of increase on the horizontal axis (X), the regression line moves 0.63
units down the vertical line, as it is a negative slope.

Step four: calculate the intercept (α) of the regression line on the vertical axis

Σ Y −b ΣΧ
α
N

45−(−0.63 x 62)
α
10

45−(−39.06)
α
10

84.06
α
10

α =8.41

Y (predicted score) = α (intercept) + b (slope) * X (known

score)
Example: predict soil moisture, if the soil temperature is 8

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Y= 8.41 + (-0.63 * 8)
Y = 8.41 + (-5.04)
Y = 3.37
This means that when the soil temperature is 8, the soil moisture would be 3.37

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