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Wind Based Distributed Generation Uncertainties An PDF
Wind Based Distributed Generation Uncertainties An PDF
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This proposed technique is deemed viable especially after the When the shape index k equals to 2, which is the most realistic
great progress in the energy storage system, i.e. (VRB energy for a likely wind turbine, the pdf is called Rayliegh probability
storage system) DIFINE VRB[8]. In order to accomplish this density function:
task, uncertainty of the wind DG is estimated by using Rayleigh
probability density function in order to model the behavior of 2v ⎡ v ⎤
wind speed each month in the year. Hence the average power f (v ) = ( 2
) exp ⎢− ( ) 2 ⎥ Rayliegh pdf (5)
output during each month can be calculated, and from which the c ⎣ c ⎦
total average output power during the year can be calculated. If the mean value of the wind speed for a site is known, then the
Further, by comparing the average power of each month with scaling index c can be calculated as in (6),(7).
the annual average power, the proper selection of the storage
∞ ∞
size can be determined. 2v 2 ⎡ v ⎤ π
v m = ∫ v. f (v)dv = ∫ ( 2
) exp ⎢− ( ) 2 ⎥dv = c
II. PROBLEM FORMULATION 0 0 c ⎣ c ⎦ 2
The following subsections explain the statistical method used to (6)
model and estimate the average power of the wind DG c ≈ 1.128vm (7)
∑f ∑f
f(v )
0.04
i i
i =1 i =1 0.03
v1 v2
0
B. Wind power probability Density Function. wind speed
The wind speed frequency curve is modeled by a continuous Fig.2. Probability density function.
function, called probability density function (pdf). The feature
of this pdf as shown in Fig. 2, is that the area under the curve is 0.25
equal to unity, and the area under the curve between any two
wind speeds equal to the probability that the wind is between
0.2 k=3
those two speeds, as shown in the following equation
v2
v1 k=2
∞
probability (0 ≤ v ≤ ∞) = ∫ f (v )dv = 1 (3) 0.1
0
C. Weibull and Rayleigh Probability Density Functions 0.05
Fig. 3. Weibull probability density function with different values of shape index k.
k v k −1 ⎡ v ⎤
f (v ) = ( ) exp ⎢− ( ) k ⎥ Weibull pdf (4)
c c ⎣ c ⎦ D. Estimating the Capacity Factor
Capacity factor is defined as the ratio of average output power
where k is the shape index, while c is the scale index. As the
over the rated output power.
shape index k changes, the shape of the pdf will change
Pave
accordingly as shown in Fig. 3. CF = (8)
Prated
3
In order to calculate the rated and average power output of wind 0.14
between the wind speed and the output power of such 0.08
turbine as shown in [4].
f(v)
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
W ind speed
Pr
a
0.16
April
0.14 May
June
0.12
0.1
Vci Vr V co
f(v)
0.08
Fig. 4. Typical wind turbine output power versus wind speed
0.06
In this section monthly pdfs are generated for wind speed in 0.02
TABLE I
f(v)
0.12
Aug 4.95 22.704
Sep 3.23 10.049 0.1
0.08
Table II 0.02
TABLE III energy capture. Turbine number 2 in this case study is the
THE MONTHLY AND ANNUAL AVERAGE OUTPUT POWER (KW) FOR
chosen candidate as shown from Fig. 6.
DIFFERENT TYPES OF WIND TURBINES
Turbine Turbine Turbine
IV. ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM DESIGN
1 Turbine2 3 4
Jan 338 831 854 1280 In order to determine the capacity of the appropriate energy
Feb 255 620 639 960 storage system that will be installed with the wind DG to level
the output power and facilitate the implementation of such DG
Mar 284 709 727 1090
in planning problems as a power capacity, which means a
Apr 300 748 776 1163 constant output power DG, two parameters should be
May 279 689 706 1059 calculated, namely, the maximum duration for the energy
Jun 175 420 420 630 storage in which it discharges and The level of output power.
Jul 139 350 355 532
Aug 101 265 267 396
Sep 95 390 405 607 0.4 Turbine2
0.35
Oct 193 493 496 744 Turbine3 Turbine4
Capacity factor
0.3 Turbine1
Nov 203 537 550 823 0.25
Dec 302 727 759 1138 0.2
564.916 0.15
Annual 222 7 579.5 868.5 0.1
0.05
The Monthly capacity factors for those turbines, computed 0
using the mathematical formulation (8), are shown in Table IV. 1 2 3 4
TABLE IV
MONTHLY CAPACITY FACTORS
Fig. 6. Annual capacity factors.
Turbine
Turbine1 Turbine2 3 Turbine4 A. The maximum duration for the energy storage in which it
0.39764 0.50363 0.42666 discharges.
Jan 7 6 0.427 7 This is a time based parameter which depends mainly on the
0.37575 annual wind speed pattern in the site under study. The analysis
Feb 0.3 8 0.3195 0.32 here will focus on the month that has the minimum average
0.33411 0.42969 0.36333 power, which is August as shown in table IV. This month will
Mar 8 7 0.3635 3 be considered as the worst case scenario, and the period of
0.35294 0.45333 0.38766 discharge during this month will be considered as the longest
Apr 1 3 0.388 7 period in which the energy storage system will be designed. In
0.32823 0.41757 order to estimate this period, historical data collected from
May 5 6 0.353 0.353 Madison weather station for years 2000 to 2005 is considered.
0.20588 0.25454 By calculating the real time output power during this month, it
Jun 2 5 0.21 0.21 was found that this period is about 90 hours as shown in Fig. 7.
0.16352 0.21212 0.17733 B. The level of output power.
Jul 9 1 0.1775 3
0.11882 0.16060 This parameter is dependant mainly on the profile of the
Aug 4 6 0.1335 0.132 monthly average output power of the wind DG, as shown in Fig.
0.11176 0.23636 0.20233 8. Due to the great difference between the average power in the
winter and summer, two scenarios were proposed.
Sep 5 4 0.2025 3
• Work on the annual average output power of the wind DG.
0.22705 0.29878
The disadvantage of this scenario is its high uncertainty,
Oct 9 8 0.248 0.248
because in the winter months there will be an excess in the
0.23882 0.32545 0.27433
output, while there will be a shortage in output power
Nov 4 5 0.275 3
during summer months, thus it is recommended to reject
0.35529 0.44060 0.37933 this scenario from the planning point of view.
Dec 4 6 0.3795 3
• Work on the minimum monthly average output power. The
disadvantage of this scenario is the great waste of power
The annual capacity factors are then calculated. The wind
during the winter months, thus it is recommended to reject
turbine that has the highest capacity factor will be considered
this scenario from the economic point of view.
the best matched turbine to the site from the point of view of
The final conclusion is that the integrated wind DG with energy
storage system can facilitate the implementation of wind DG as
5
power capacity in the planning problem if and only if the are used to select the best turbine that match with the site under
following two conditions are satisfied for the site under study. study; a selection that is mainly dependant on the highest
1. Small periods of discharge of the energy storage capacity factor.
system, which will have a great impact on reducing the This paper also showed that using integrated wind DG with
size of the storage, and in turn the cost of it. energy storage system to facilitate the implementation of wind
2. Small difference between the monthly average output DG as a power capacity in the planning problem is not
power, which will have a great impact on reducing the considered as a favorable solution from both planning and
uncertainty of output power if the first scenario is used economic point of view, in case of sites that have long periods
in planning, or reducing the waste of power if the of discharge and a great difference between the monthly average
second scenario is used in planning. output powers. However, it might be considered as a viable
For the sites that cannot satisfy the above two conditions such solution for sites characterized by small periods of discharge
as the site under study in this paper, alternative solutions can and small difference between the monthly average output
be used such as constructing a hybrid system consisting of the powers. In case of systems characterized long periods of
wind DG with another renewable source of energy such as discharge, using hybrid systems, by utilizing other type of
photo voltaic (PV) in order to compensate the lack of output generation, to level the monthly average output profile may be a
power in the summer months. Nevertheless, it has to be better solution.
mentioned here that the second source to be integrated to the
wind DG doesn’t have to be renewable and this might help in VI. REFERENCES
reducing the degree of uncertainty associated with the
planning process. [1] Canadian Wind Energy Association (www.canwea.ca).
[2] I. Gary, Johnson, “Economic Design of Wind Electric systems”, IEEE
1800 Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-97, No.2, March/April
1600
1978, pp. 854- 561.
[3] M. Ziyad. Salameh, I. Safari, “Optimum Windmill- Site Matching”, IEEE
1400 Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vo1.7, No.4, Dec. 1992, pp, 669-676.
1200
[4] S.H.Jangamshetti, V.G. Rau, “Site matching of wind turbine generators: a
case study”, IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 1537–
1000 1543, Dec. 1999.
[5] B. S. Borowy, and Z. M. Salameh, “Dynamic response of a stand-alone
KW
800
wind energy conversion system with battery storage to a wind gust”, IEEE
600 Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 73–78, Mar. 1997.
[6] A. G. Bakirtzis, P. S. Dokopoulos, E. S. Gavanidou, and M. A. Ketselides,
400
Monthly average “A probabilistic costing method for the evaluation of the performance of
200 grid-connected wind arrays,” IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 4,
no. 1, pp. 34–40, Mar. 1989.
0
[7] G. Carpinelli, G. Celli, F. Pilo, and A. Russo, “Distributed Generation
300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400
Sitting and Sizing under Uncertainty”, 2001 IEEE Porto Power Tech
Hour
Conference
Fig. 7. Maximum period of discharge. [8] www.vrbpower.com
[9] IEC 614001, Wind turbine conversion systems, Prentice Hall, 1990.
900
Jan
800 A pr
M ar Dec
M ay
700 VI. BIOGRAPHIES
Feb
600 Yasser M. Attwa (S’06) was born in Alexandria, Egypt,
A nnual average
Oct
in 1975. He received the B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in
500 Nov
electrical engineering from Alexandria University,
KW
Jun
400
Sep Alexandria, Egypt in 1998, and 2004 respectively. He is
Jul
currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree in the Department of
300 Aug Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of
Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada. His research interests
200
are distribution system planning, power quality,
100 reliability, and distributed generation.
0
Ehab F. El-Saadany (SM’05) was born in Cairo, Egypt,
in 1964. He received the B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in
Fig. 8. Monthly and annual average output power of turbine 2. electrical engineering from Ain Shams University, Cairo,
Egypt, in 1986 and 1990, respectively, and the Ph.D.
degree in electrical engineering from the University of
V. CONCLUSION Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, in 1998. Currently, he
Detailed analytical study to calculate the monthly average is an Associate Professor in the Department of Electrical
and Computer Engineering, University of Waterloo. His
output power, annual average output power, and capacity factor research interests are distribution system control and
of wind speed in northernwest using data from Madison weather operation, power quality, distributed generation, power
station is presented. Wind speeds are modeled using Rayleigh electronics, digital signal processing applications to power systems, and
probability density function, and the relation between the output mechatronics.
power and the wind speed for different types of wind turbines