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Short-term forecasting for solar irradiation based on
the multi-layer neural network with the
Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and meteorological
data: application to the Gandon site in Senegal
* Centre International de Formation et de Recherche en Energie Solaire. ** Institut des Sciences et Techniques de l’Ingénieur d’Angers
Willy Magloire NKOUNGA
C.I.F.R.E.S*
Université Cheikh Anta Diop/Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique Université Cheikh Anta Diop/Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique
Dakar, Sénégal
wellymagloire.nkounga@ucad.edu.sn
Mamadou Lamine NDIAYE
C.I.F.R.E.S
Université Cheikh Anta Diop/Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique
Dakar, Sénégal
mamadoulamine.ndiaye@ucad.edu.sn
Mamadou BOP
C.I.F.R.E.S
Université Cheikh Anta Diop/Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique
Dakar, Senegal
mamadou1.bop@ucad.edu.sn
Abstract—This paper proposes a short-term forecast of the
solar irradiation on the Gandon site in Senegal, based on
the multi-layer artificial neural networks, with the Levenberg-
Marquardt algorithm. The meteorological data are used as
input variables. Due to the random nature of the meteorological
variables, this forecast is necessary in order to plan the energy
resources on the short-term. The forecast horizon is fixed at ten
minutes. A data analysis with the WEKA (Waikato Environment
for Knowledge Analysis) software permitted to select three input
parameters (maximum temperature, mean radiation and time)
among the nine measured and to determine four hidden layers.
A comparative study is realized between the measured solar
radiation on the site and the forecast results. The forecasted and
measured data are correlated at 99% with a root mean square
error (RMSE) of 0.0362, a time-statistical error of 9.25 and a
normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 19.37%. These
results show the efficiency of this model and the relevance of the
chosen approach.
Index Terms—Forecast, solar irradiation, artificial neural net-
work, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, WEKA .
I. I NTRODUCTION
Renewable energies has presented a growing interest for
the past decade [1]. Several works examined the following
aspects: potential evaluation [2], system sizing [3] and energy
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Mouhamadou Falilou NDIAYE
C.I.F.R.E.S
Dakar, Sénégal
mouhamadouf.ndiaye@ucad.edu.sn
Oumar CISSE
C.I.F.R.E.S
Université Cheikh Anta Diop/Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique
Dakar, Sénégal
oumar.cisse@univ-thies.sn
Alexandre SIOUTAS
I.S.T.I.A**
Ecole d’Ingenieurs/Université d’Angers
Angers, France
alexsioutas@hotmail.com
management. The works developed in the energy management
field were focused on control command [4], optimization [5],
load forecast [6] and available forecast resources [7], [8]. The
present work belongs to the last category.
The forecast resources can be developed on the short-term
[7] and on the long-term [9]. Works [8] classified the eleven
most used forecast methods in decreasing order: artificial
neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM),
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy
logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA),
particle swarm optimisation (PSO), grey prediction (GM)
and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). Moreover, the
Kalman filter [10], interpolation methods [11], Thevenin
Equivalent Circuit Model [12] , Mann-Kendall Test [13] and
Amstrong’s model [14] are used. In our work, the artificial
neural network is used for the mean solar radiation forecast
on a horizontal surface.
The artificial neural network is based on artificial
intelligence. The learning process depends on the data quality
and quantity that is used [15]. Some authors [7], [16], [17]

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proposed a preliminary data analysis which should allow the

ability to identify the parameter combinations that will likely
lead to conclusive results. This input variable selection can
be done by using different approaches. Three methods are
proposed by different authors: Salmon (system for automated
learning modelling operative networks) [7], Bayesian [16] and
the WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis)
software [18]. Furthermore, WEKA makes it possible to
select the number of ANN hidden layers. The authors [18]
could select five input variables within nine using WEKA Fig. 1. geographical position of Gandon [30]
software.
The forecast performance given by the ANN can be estimated
variables, they used solar irradiation, ambient temperature,
by statistical criteria such as [7]: the correlation coefficient
wind speed and sampling timestamp. The obtained results
(R), the root mean square error (RMSE), the normalized
presented a weighted mean absolute error equal to 22.41%.
root mean square error (nRMSE), the mean square error
In the city of Ancona in Italy, other authors [27] proposed
(MSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the
a radial basis function neural network to obtain the 24-hr
normalized mean absolute percentage error (nMAPE) and
forecast of the solar irradiation on the horizontal plane in
the time-statistical (t-statistic) [19]. Small values of RMSE,
the city; results show a percentage RMSE of 12% on the
nRMSE, MBE, and t-statistic, gives information on good
validation set. In Italy once more, forecasting of solar energy
performance [19]. On the short-term, the authors [17]
24-hours ahead is proposed [28], using a feed-forward neural
estimate that the MAPE and the nRMSE are the most relevant
network with tapped delay lines, with a percentage error less
criteria for error estimation. A forecast overvaluation (or
than 5%. In India [29], authors used artificial neural network
undervaluation) gives us a positive (or negative) MAPE
to propose a forecasting of global horizontal irradiation
value. In Italy [17], 7 parameters over 13 made it possible
with 92% accuracy; they used as input data, calculated
to realize a solar radiation forecast, with a MAPE criteria
extraterrestrial solar irradiation, meteorological forecasts of
between 1.67% and 4.25%. In south of France, authors [20]
cloud conditions, humidity, visibility and temperature.
used the ambient temperature and the solar radiation for the
daily solar radiation forecast, with an RMSE criteria of 33.10
The purpose of this paper is to realize the short-term mean
W/m2 and an MSE criteria of 16.4593 W/m2 . In Spain
solar radiation forecast, based on the multi-layer ANN, using
[21], four meteorological and geographical variables have
meteorological data from the Gandon site in the north-west
been used to forecast the solar radiation over a short-term
region of Senegal. This is realized over a short-term period
period of 1-6hours, with an RMSE of 10 to 35%. In the
ΔT equal to ten minutes.
Castile and Leon regions, the solar radiation forecast has
This present work will complete our previous studies in which
been realized with nine meteorological parameters, giving an
the authors were interested in the potential estimation [19],
nRMSE performance of less than 20% [7]. In Australia, five
[30] and a command based on the control predictive model
input meteorological variables are used for solar photovoltaic
[4], [31]. Combined with the previous results, these forecast
radiation over a period of 24 hours [16] with R2 performance
works will permit an increase in the command horizon.
equal to 0.94. With artificial neural network, authors [22]
This paper is organized as follows: Section II describes the
developed a new approach to predict global solar radiation
study site and data presentation. Section III presents and
model in Algeria, using ten years of measurements. The
explains the developed methodology. ANN modelling is pre-
model performances show MBE and R2 as 7.937 and 0.982
sented in section IV while results and discussion are presented
respectively. In India [23], the same approach is used with
in section V, and finally, the conclusion and perspectives are
five years of data collection and one hidden layer; results
given in section VI.
show best performances with least MAPE of 1.36087%
and RMSE of 1.58994 M J/m2 - day. In Argentina [24],
II. S TUDY SITE AND DATA PRESENTATION
using climatic input variables, an estimation of daily solar
radiation is obtained with statistical criteria of 2.83 M J/m2 . The study site is the Gandon region, located in the north-
 
Based on historical meteorological data and artificial neural west region of Senegal. Its location is 15o 26 50 north latitude
 
o
network, a fairly good forecasting of 24 hours ahead of and 16 26 49 west longitude (Fig.1). For the short-term solar
solar radiation had been realized in Island [25]; results radiation forecast on this site, we used meteorological data
showed the coefficient of determination ranges between 0.500 presented in previous works [19]. The collection of the fol-
and 0.851, as well as the root mean square error ranges lowing variables has been taken every ten minutes: day number
between 0.065kW h/m2 and 0.105kW h/m2 . In Italy, authors (Dn), time of measurement (h), maximum temperature (Tm),
[26] proposed a predictive model based on feed-forward mean temperature (T), maximum relative humidity (H), mean
neural network, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt back humidity (H), maximum radiation (Em), mean radiation (E)
propagation algorithm to forecast solar irradiation; as input and atmospheric pressure (P). 70% of these data are used for

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TABLE I
DATA MEASURED OVER 06 HOURS

h T Tm H Hm E Em P
(minute) (o C) (o C) (%) (%) (W/m2 ) (W/m2 ) (Pa )
460 18.49 18.65 72.6 73.4 4.327 7.02 101.2
470 18.44 18.52 72.2 73 14.27 21.05 101.2
480 18.31 18.52 73.3 73.6 22.92 28.07 101.2
490 18.13 18.25 74.1 74.5 42.8 49.12 101.2
500 18.17 18.31 74.1 74.3 62.34 84.2 101.2
510 18.33 18.58 74.6 75.3 90.6 105.3 101.2
520 18.79 19.05 73.2 74.5 102.1 133.3 101.2
530 19.17 19.39 71.7 72.4 125.5 140.3 101.2
540 19.02 19.32 72.6 73.8 166.1 189.5 101.2
550 19.23 19.58 73.2 74.2 195.5 210.5 101.2
560 19.92 20.19 70.1 71.7 241.8 280.7 101.3
570 20.21 20.39 68.81 69.69 302.1 322.8 101.3
580 20 20.12 69.55 70.2 347.7 371.9 101.3
590 20.48 21.06 67.56 69.36 394.2 414 101.3
600 21.41 21.73 63.57 65.14 416.3 435 101.3
610 21.49 21.73 62.86 63.74 430.5 463.1 101.3
620 21.32 21.52 63.64 64.07 476.6 512.2 101.3
630 21.86 22.46 62.1 63.8 525.3 547.3 242.9
640 22.86 23.13 58.27 59.51 548.2 561.3 1059 Fig. 2. methodology
650 23.35 23.53 56.66 57.7 546 582.3 1059
660 23.31 23.53 57.06 57.97 595.5 624.5 1059
670 23.31 23.66 57.25 57.91 634.5 645.5 1059
680 24.04 24.53 55.05 56.97 638.4 652.5 1059 B. Normalization and denormalization
690 25.11 25.6 51.28 53.35 628.5 694.6 1059
700 25.67 25.8 49.05 49.74 693.3 716 1059
710 25.43 25.6 49.56 50.01 716 730 1059 The data normalization consists of bringing the data to the
720 25.35 25.54 49.79 51.14 732 744 1059 same order of magnitude. It avoids undermining the ANN
730 25.19 25.4 54.08 55.36 744 751 1059 training process [17]. To provide a good data convergence
740 24.85 25 55.84 56.5 760 772 1059
750 25.16 25.33 54.52 56.03 752 772 1059 with the ANN, several works propose a data normalization
760 25.05 25.26 54.85 55.49 760 800 1059 [17], [32]. The normalization equation is given by (1).
770 25.25 25.6 54.51 55.23 796 800 1059 x represents the measured variable
780 25.66 26.07 53.38 53.82 813 828 1059 y is the normalized value of the measured variable
790 26.43 26.74 50.99 52.75 673.6 807 1059
800 26.5 26.67 50.46 51.07 739 800 1059
xmax is the maximum value of measured variable
810 26.27 26.4 50.77 51.14 723 765 1059 xmin is the minimum value of measured variable
820 26.09 26.21 51.03 51.54 771 786 1059 ymax is the maximum value of the normalized value
ymin is the minimum value of the normalized value

the ANN training process, and 30% for the test. One example
over six hours of these parameters on an unfavorable day
(January 15th , 2015) is illustrated in Tab.I. The day number
(Dn) is counted from the first day of the year in which data
measurements started.
III. M ETHODOLOGY
The methodology used (Fig.2)is divided into several steps:
variable of interest and number of layer selection for the ANN,
variable normalization and denormalization, performance eval-
uation and mean radiation forecast results.
A. Variable of interest and number of layers selection for the
artificial neural network
On the nine collected parameters of the Gandon site, a
preliminary study permitted the seclection of decision-making
variables. For this purpose, the correlation between each
variable measured at t time and the radiation value measured
at t + ΔT time is realized using the WEKA software. The
variables having a strong correlation on the forecast and easy
to measure are taken as input variables for the ANN.
y = (ymax − ymin )(x − xmin )/(xmax − xmin ) + ymin (1)
After the test process of the ANN, the data is denormalized
using (2). Denormalization consists of bringing back the
reduced data to the real values .
x = (xmax − xmin )(y − ymin )/(ymax − ymin ) + xmin (2)
IV. A RTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
A. Artificial neural network model
The ANN type used is the feed-forward multilayer
perception neural network, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt
algorithm. The multilayer neural network architecture, with
n input values, a hidden layer with Ni artificial neuron and
single neuron in the output layer is presented in Fig.3.
The mathematical expression of the neural
network output o is given by (3) and (4).

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Fig. 3. Architecture ANN [7]

Ni represents the number of artificial neurons Fig. 4. Correlation obtained from WEKA between forecasted and measured
Wj,N i is the weight associated with each connection data on Gandon site.
L1, L2 indicate which layer the weight belongs to
f, g indicate activation functions
o is the multilayer perceptron output
x1 , xj , .., xn are input data
y1 is the neuron 1 output
yj is the neuron Ni output
⎛ ⎞ Fig. 5. Layer number arhitecture
 n
 L1 
yi = g⎝ (xj ) ∗ Wj,N i ⎠ (3) 
j=1
⎛ ⎞ RM SE = (xi − x̂i )2 /N (9)
n
 L2  i
o= f⎝ (yi ) ∗ Wj,N i ⎠ (4)
j=1
nRM SE = RM SE/E(x) (10)

B. Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm M BE = (1/N ) ∗ (x̂i − xi ) (11)
i
The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm allows the system to 
perform a learning process by minimizing the error. It is t − statistic = (N − 1)M BE 2 / (RM SE 2 − M BE 2 )
described by (7) and (5) [33]. The algorithm parameters b (12)
and Wj,N i are chosen using (6).

V. R ESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Snew = S − J T J + μI J T e (5) ymax and ymin values are chosen respectively as one and
ST = [Wj,N i ...b] (6) zero.
J= [∂e/∂Wj,N i ...∂e/∂b] (7) A. Data and number of layer selection
I is the identity matrix The correlation results between the meteorological variables
e is the error vector and the mean solar radiation are presented in Fig.4. The
J is the Jacobian matrix variables of maximum temperature, time and mean radiation,
Wj,N i indicates the weight being of easy access contribute to more than 99% (correlation
b is the bias of 0.99) of the forecast on the Gandon site (refer to Fig.4).
ST is the transpose value of vector S Therefore, they are chosen as the forecast input for the rest
μ is a scalar with initial value 0.001 of our work. The number of hidden layers retained is 4. The
the expressions of J, S and e are detailed in [33] obtained model is shown on Fig.5.
C. statistical criteria B. Artificial neural network
The statistical criteria are evaluated using (8) [19]; (9),(10) 1) Training process: Fig.6 presents the training results
[17]; (11),(12) [19]. obtained thanks to the 70% of the used data. It presents
xi is the i − th measured value the evolution of mean solar radiation as a function of the
x̂i is the i − th forecasted value input data. We can observe the correlation between training,
E(x) is the mean of test values validation and test phases. The validation indicates the end
N is the total number of test values of the training process. The training process performance
  analysis is presented in Fig.7. It shows that the gradient
R2 = 1 − (xi − x̂i )2 / (xi )2 (8)
decreases according to the evolution of the epoch number
i i

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Fig. 8. training validation

Fig. 6. correlation in training process

Fig. 9. comparison between forecast and measured values

C. Performance indicators
The performance indicators are presented in Tab.II. It shows
the low values of RMSE, nRMSE, t-statistic and MBE.

VI. C ONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES

Fig. 7. Training performance analysis The ANN is used on the Gandon site for forecasting the
mean solar radiation over a period of ten minutes. Among the
nine measured meteorological parameters on the Gandon site,

in the developed ANN model. The μ scalar evolution is in

a perfect correlation with (5). The moment indicating the
validation failure corresponds to the epoch 184. The best 800 forecasted
measured
validation performance of the training process is presented in
mean solar irradiation

600
Fig.8. It is obtained at the epoch 178.
2) Test: The test phase is the one following the training 400

process. It is the phase in which the forecast is obtained; 30%

200
of the measured data is used. Fig.9 is a comparative study
between the predicted mean solar radiation and measured 0
mean solar radiation on the Gandon site. It presents a values 0 200 400 600 800
minute
1000 1200 1400

concentration following the linear correlation straight line

y = x − 2 . This concentration clearly shows the correlations Fig. 10. Comparison between forecast and measured values on january
between the different values during the whole test phase. In 15th , 2015.
order to better evaluate the model’s performances, we showed
on Fig.9 the forecast result of one unfavourable day (January TABLE II
P ERFORMANCE INDICATORS
15th , 2015). According to this figure, we can see that the
forecasted values are equal to those measured on the site in R RM SE nRM SE t − statistic M BE
more than 99%. 0.99 0.03 19% 9.25 0.0018

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three have been used. As principal contribution, this paper
presented:
• the different necessary meteorological variables, as well
as their correlation for a better forecast of mean solar
radiation on the Gandon site;
• the future mean solar radiation forecast over a time period
of 10 minutes using maximum temperature, time and
mean solar radiation recorded on the past time periods.
This model is a tool for decision-making concerning the solar
photovoltaic power stations production forecast. Indeed, the
power station operators, who actually represent 20.3% of the
total production, need a reliable production estimation at any
time. This tool can provide a contribution to this sort of need
. in Cameroon and Senegal sub-Saharan tropical regions,” Journal of
In perspectives, we intend to:
• proceed the forecast overall national territory starting
from the geographical coordinates;
• investigate the correlation between different interval mea-
surement times Δt on the mean solar radiation forecast
at the given t time in the future.
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