TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH
LSTM NEURAL NETWORK
MALINI V1
UG Scholar
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Bannari Amman Institute of Technology
Sathyamangalam, India
Malini.cs21@bitsathy.ac.in
KARTHIKA DEVI R3
UG Scholar
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Bannari Amman Institute of Technology
Sathyamangalam, India
Karthikadevi.cs21@bitsathy.ac.in
Abstract—Agricultural, industrial and other field
depends massively on soil temperature, humidity and
moisture rate. The parameters are to be predicted
accurately, those can enhance the production rate . The
essential aim of this paper is to forecast rainfall rate, day
by day temperature, humidity of soil at 5cm depth. We
have collected five days dataset at the interval of 5
seconds. For that, we have applied machine and deep
learning methods for predicting the future values using
the past trends. Currently, the soil parameters are
forecasted using Forecasting fashions consisting of
Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA),
Vector Autoregression (VAR), Long Short-time period
memory (LSTM) fashions. In this paper, we are going to
implement these models, analyzing and comparing
them, to prove advanced RNN, a sequential network
LSTM works much better than other time series models
in predicting the multi-step ahead data values. Thus,
LSTM model is very well suited for soil temperature,
humidity and rainfall rate prediction.
Keywords: LSTM, Machine learning and deep learning,
soil temperature, humidity, and rainfall.
1. INTRODUCTION
A number of factors impact the growth of crops, including
soil temperature, moisture. These factors directly
influence the plant growth, which in turn results in
agricultural yield. In contrast, temperature and moisture
of soil also plays a significant role in land-air interaction.
This makes them vital when it comes to evaluating the
earth, analysing the global climate and evaluating the
effects of climatic change as well. There are several ways
to measure soil temperature, humidity, currently: through
1
KOWSALYA S2
UG Scholar
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Bannari Amman Institute of Technology
Sathyamangalam, India
Kowsalya.cs21@bitsathy.ac.in
KAVYASHREE R4
UG Scholar
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Bannari Amman Institute of Technology
Sathyamangalam, India
Kavyashree.cs21@bitsathy.ac.in
simulation, retrieve by remote sensing or ground
observations. In addition to predicting the growing
condition of plants, modelling soil temperature and
moisture gives farmers insight into how plant grows and
helps them make decisions about what to do to ensure the
successful growth of crops. As the prediction possibilities
widens, the greater the likelihood of taking productive
steps will be.
This could be very useful to maximize the manufacturing
and precision agriculture can turn out to be a reality. But,
the larger the prediction window, the larger the errors, If
the errors are too massive, the prediction results will
change into vain. Artificial intelligence, prediction and
analysing image/ video have become common
applications of deep learning algorithms in the recent
decades. For predicting sequential data, a number of
modelling algorithms have been developed, including
Bayesian models, Linear regression models),
Autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA)
model, Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, Exponential
smoothing and deep neural network models. These are the
most popular and widely used algorithms for time series
forecasting.
The linear machine learning models like ARIMA, VAR,
gives effective output for predicting the temperature,
humidity of soil. But they did not consider the spatial
correlation and only predicts one-step ahead. Therefore,
we develop a multistep ahead prediction model, featuring
( LSTM ) long short-term with encoder and decoder for
spatial correlation. The experimental evaluation of the
model on real-time data has clearly demonstrated that this
model is more effective and superior to existing models.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
1. X. Li, J. Tang and C. Yin [1], They advanced a version
for multistep in advance prediction of soil temperature
and moisture, series to series version which factors
lengthy short-time period memory (LSTM) primarily
based totally encoder- decoder structure. The RMSE
and MSE are 0.22°C and 0.17°C for temperature and
0.28% and 0.23% for moisture, which justifies the
powerful functioning of the version.
2. Q. Li et al. [2], via way of means of the use of an
progressive characteristic that hyperlinks LSTM loss
and hostile term, they expanded the correlation among
soil temperature and its environmental factors, which
can’t be done with an adversarial model. The RMSE
and MSE are 2.2776 and 1.796 which concludes the
increased performance of the model GANs-LSTM.
3. [3] , designed a innovative weather forecasting model,
that deals with TCN (temporal convolutional network)
and LSTM (long short-term memory) networks. The
TCN model predicts better than other machine
learning approaches.
4. [4] , to come up with best prediction for strawberry
yield , they compared different techniques, mean
predictions, machine and deep learning models and
with the help of evaluation metrics they concluded
AC-LSTM and ACV-LSTM as best performing
model.
5. H. Hao, F. Yu and Q. Li [5], To expect the soil
temperature at 3 areas, depths and 3 specific delays,
they used a brand new mixture known as EEMD-
CNN, ensemble empirical mode decomposition
primarily based totally CNN. The evaluation with
different fashions finish that EEMD-CNN has the
higher performance.
6. Shirvani A, Moradi F, Moosavi A A. [6], weekly data
of soil temperature are taken into account, and
ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) ,
a stochastic model was developed. The predicted
model indicated a high correlation coefficient, which
proves the accurate prediction of soil temperature
anomalies
7. Saeed Samadianfard, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani,
Babak Mohammadi [7], Their fundamental purpose
turned into to assess month-to-month soil temperature
at more than one depths : 5cm, 10cm, 20cm, 50cm,
100cm, with MLP-FFA (multi- layer perceptron
algorithms with firefly optimizer), a hybrid set of rules
to get massive statistical accuracy. With the forecasted
2
output, it's far nicely visible that the MLP-FFA version
outshines the standalone multi-layer perceptron
version.
8. A. Horelu, C. Leordeanu, E. Apostol, D. Huru, M.
Mocanu and V. Cristea [8], short-term dependencies
and long-term dependencies obtained with the help of
farm-monitoring sensors are considered, predictions
are made with Hidden Markov models and Neural
Network models. It is concluded that RNN with LSTM
performs better than Hidden Markov model, by
providing excellent accuracy.
9. [9], they predicted the near future of the crop irrigation
requirements using machine learning approaches. It is
seen that LSTM model performs well compared to
other models with 0.72% RMSE and 0.52% cross
validation error
10. Xuezhi Wang, Wenhui Li, Qingliang Li [10], they
designed GRU based embedded prediction system,
considering the soil temperature at different depth
(5cm, 10cm, 15 cm) and time stamps (6hrs, 12hrs,
24hrs). The result i.e., performance of RMSE, MAE,
MSE, R2, shows that their model works well when
compared to other neural network models.
3. PROPOSED METHOD
The time collection is the gathering of facts of a variable
over a length of time . A time collection forecast is the
technique of creating clinical predictions primarily based
totally on history. Models are built through past data
analysis and using them to predict future events and make
strategic decision. Typically, these type of data are
collected on a periodic basis like, month (e.g. CPI), week
(e.g. Money supply), quarter (e.g. GDP) or annual (e.g.
Government Budgets) data. Numerous applications make
use of time series data including statistical analysis,
mathematical finance, earthquake and weather
predictions and in many other fields.
Fig. 3.1 Time Series Forecasting workflow
3.1 Dataset Collection
Farm Monitoring Sensor Dataset, the dataset that has been
used is a real time dataset. In this database we have three
attributes and variation of three categories. These class
variants contain numerical values. This dataset has no
missing values. Data sets are split into two, of these 80%
are used for training and 20% are used for testing. Other
features of the database are:
1. Temperature
2. Humidity
3.2. Farm Monitoring Sensor Data Distribution
Fig. 3.2. Parameters Plotting (temperature, humidity)
3.3 Data decomposition
Fig. 3.3. a Trend and Seasonality of temperature
3
Fig. 3.3.b Trend and Seasonality of humidity
3.4 Pre-processing of Data
The raw data is converted to an accessible dataset
using a preprocessing approach. To put it another way,
whenever the Information is obtained from a variety of
sources and stored in a database. The analysis cannot be
done in a raw format.
Fig. 3.4.a Data Pre processing
3.7 Data Splitting
After preparing and evaluating information, it is clean
and unpredictable. First trained the data with algorithms
and ignoring the test dataset and split the data. The
preparation model will be done using ingenuity and
mathematics, as well as a partial level of preparation
knowledge. The objective of standardization is to place
every one of the characteristics on a similar scale.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
LSTM are form of recurrent community which can
be networks that reuse the output from a preceding step as
an enter for the subsequent step. Each node in the neural
community calculates the enter and returns an output. In
recurrent community this output is then used alongside the
subsequent element, because the centre for the subsequent
step and so on. In LSTM the nodes are recurrent however
additionally they have an inner nation as a running
reminiscence space, because of this that statistics may be
saved and retrieved over many time steps. The enter cost,
the preceding output and the inner nation are all used
withinside the nodes calculation. The consequences of the
calculation are used now no longer simplest to offer an
output cost however additionally to replace the nation.
Like any neural community LSTM nodes have parameters
that decide how the inputs are used withinside the
calculations however LSTM additionally have parameters
referred to as gates that manipulate the glide of statistics
in the node, particularly how lots the secure nation
statistics is used as an enter to the calculations. These gate
parameters are weights and biases, because of this that the
conduct relies upon at the inputs. Similarly, there are gates
to govern how lots of cutting-edge statistics is stored to
the nation and what kind of the output is decided through
the cutting-edge calculations as opposed to the saves
statistics. So, LSTM nodes are definitely greater complex
than everyday recurrent nodes however this makes them
higher at getting to know the complicated
interdependencies withinside the sequences.
5. CONCLUSION
The success of farming and precision of agriculture
depends on the use of multifaceted predictive models that
assume several parameters of soil as the key value that
affect crop yield. In this paper, we are implemented
different models, analyzing and comparing them, to prove
advanced RNN, a sequential network Bi- LSTM works
much better than other time series models in predicting
the multi- step ahead data values. Thus, Bi-LSTM model
is very well suited for soil temperature, humidity rate
prediction. The RMSE values are 0.9873 for temperature,
4.4793 for humidity.
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