1. A.

Forecast Simple Average

F2 = (23+ 25) / 2= 24
F3 = (23+ 25 + 29)/3 = 26

 MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 24/25 = 96%

 MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (24+26)/(25+29) = 92%

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand MAPE
Simple average
1 23 -
2 25 24 96%
3 29 26 92%
4 30 27 91%
5 28 27 92.3%
6 33 28 90.6%
7 33 29 90%
8 38 30 88%
9 35 30 87.8%
10 31 31 89%
11 30 30 90.2%
12 37 31 89.5%

1.B. Forecast Moving Average

F3 = (23+ 25 + 29)/3 = 25.67
F4 = (25 + 29+30)/3 = 28

 MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 25.67/29 = 88.5%

 MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (25.67+28)/(29+25) = 91%

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut

 Forecasting
Periode Demand MAPE
Moving average
1 23 -
2 25 -
3 29 25.67 88.5%
4 30 28.00 91.0%
5 28 29.00 95.0%
6 33 30.33 94.2%
7 33 31.33 94.3%
8 38 34.67 93.7%
9 35 35.33 94.8%
10 31 34.67 96.9%
11 30 32.00 97.9%
12 37 32.67 96.8%

1.C. Weight Moving Average

F3 = (23* 0.2)+ (25*0.3) +( 29*0.5) = 26.6
F4 = (25*0.2) + (29*0.3)+(30*0.5) = 28.7

 MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 26.6/29 = 91.7%

 MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (28.7+26.6)/(29+30) = 93.7%

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand MAPE
Weight moving average
1 23 -
2 25 -
3 29 26.60 91.7%
4 30 28.70 93.7%
5 28 28.80 96.7%
6 33 30.90 95.8%
7 33 32.00 96.1%
8 38 35.50 95.5%
9 35 35.50 96.5%
10 31 33.60 97.9%
11 30 31.30 98.6%
12 37 33.70 97.7%

1.D. Forecast Exponential Smoothing

F3 = (0.8* 23)+ (0.2*23) = 23.4
F4 = (0.8* 23.4)+ (0.2*25) = 24.52

 MAPE periode 1
 MAPE= 23.4/25 = 93.6%

 MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (23.4+24.52)/(29+25) = 88.7%

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand MAPE
Exponential Smoothing
1 23 23
2 25 23.40 93.6%
3 29 24.52 88.7%
4 30 25.62 87.5%
5 28 26.09 89.0%
6 33 27.47 87.7%
7 33 28.58 87.5%
8 38 30.46 86.2%
9 35 31.37 86.7%
10 31 31.30 88.2%
11 30 31.04 89.7%
12 37 32.23 89.4%

1.E. Nilai MAPE terkecil diambil dari nilai rata-rata disetiap metode.

Nilai rata-rata MAPE di metode forecasting simple average = 91%

Nilai rata-rata MAPE di metode forecasting moving average = 94%

Nilai rata-rata MAPE di metode forecasting weight moving average =96%

Nilai rata-rata MAPE di metode forecasting exponential smoothing= 88.6%

Maka nilai MAPE terkecil berada pada metode exponential smoothing

1. F. Gambar Grafik

Grafik Forecast
40
35
Simple average
30
Moving average
25 Weight moving average
20 Exponential Smoothing
15 Demand
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2. A. Forecast Simple Average
F2 = (100+ 104) / 2= 102
F3 = (100+ 104 + 108)/3 = 104

 MSE periode 2
MSE= (102-104)^2= 4

 MSE periode 3
MSE= ((102-104)^2)+ ((104-108)^2))/2 = 16

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand Squared error MSE
Simple average
1 100 - - -
2 104 102 4 4
3 108 104 16 10.0
4 112 106 36 18.7
5 115 107.8 51.8 27.0
6 118 109.5 72.3 36.0
7 120 111.0 81.0 43.5
8 123 112.5 110.3 53.0
9 125 113.9 123.5 61.8
10 122 114.7 53.3 60.9
11 126 115.7 105.5 65.4
12 128 116.75 126.6 70.9

2.B. Forecast Moving Average

F3 = (100+ 104 + 108)/3 = 102
F4 = (104+ 108+112)/3 = 104

 MSE periode 3
MSE= (104-108)^2= 16

 MSE periode 2
MSE= ((104-108)^2+ ((108-112)^2))/2 = 16

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut

 Forecasting
Periode Demand Squared error MSE
Moving average
1 100 - - -
2 104 - - -
3 108 104.00 16 16.0
4 112 108.00 16 16.0
5 115 111.67 11.1 14.4
6 118 115.00 9.0 13.0
7 120 117.67 5.4 11.5
8 123 120.33 7.1 10.8
9 125 122.67 5.4 10.0
10 122 123.33 1.8 9.0
11 126 124.33 2.8 8.3
12 128 125.33 7.1 8.2

2.C. Weight Moving Average

F3 = (100* 0.2)+ (104*0.3) +( 108*0.5) = 105.2
F4 = (104*0.2) + (108*0.3)+(112*0.5) = 109.2

 MSE periode 3
MSE= (105.2-108)^2= 7.8

 MSE periode 4
MSE= ((109.2-112)^2+ ((105.2-108)^2))/2 = 7.8

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand Squared error MSE
Weight moving average
1 100 - - -
2 104 - - -
3 108 105.20 7.84 7.8
4 112 109.20 7.84 7.8
5 115 112.70 5.3 7.0
6 118 115.90 4.4 6.3
7 120 118.40 2.6 5.6
8 123 121.10 3.6 5.3
9 125 123.40 2.6 4.9
10 122 123.10 1.2 4.4
11 126 124.60 2.0 4.1
12 128 126.20 3.2 4.1

2.D. Forecast Exponential Smoothing

F3 = (0.8* 100+ (0.2*100) = 100.8
F4 = (0.8* 100.8)+ (0.2*104) = 102.24

 MSE periode 3
 MSE= (105.2-108)^2= 33.2

 MSE periode 4
MSE= ((104.19-112)^2+ ((102.24-108)^2))/2 = 61

Sehingga gambar tabel sebagai berikut:

Forecasting
Periode Demand Squared error MSE
Exponential Smoothing
1 100 100 - -
2 104 100.80 - -
3 108 102.24 33.2 33.2
4 112 104.19 61.0 47.1
5 115 106.35 74.8 56.3
6 118 108.68 86.8 63.9
7 120 110.95 82.0 67.5
8 123 113.36 93.0 71.8
9 125 115.69 86.8 73.9
10 122 116.95 25.5 67.9
11 126 118.76 52.4 66.2
12 128 120.61 54.7 65.0

2.E. Nilai MSE terkecil diambil dari nilai rata-rata disetiap metode.

Nilai rata-rata MSE di metode forecasting simple average = 41

Nilai rata-rata MSE di metode forecasting moving average = 11.7

Nilai rata-rata MSE di metode forecasting weight moving average =5.7

Nilai rata-rata MSE di metode forecasting exponential smoothing= 61.3

Maka nilai MSE terkecil berada pada metode weight moving average

2. F. Gambar Grafik
 Gambar Grafik
140

120
Simple average
100
Moving average
80 Weight moving average
Exponential Smoothing
60 Demand

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12