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Kunci Soal Latihan
Kunci Soal Latihan
MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 24/25 = 96%
MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (24+26)/(25+29) = 92%
MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 25.67/29 = 88.5%
MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (25.67+28)/(29+25) = 91%
MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 26.6/29 = 91.7%
MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (28.7+26.6)/(29+30) = 93.7%
MAPE periode 1
MAPE= 23.4/25 = 93.6%
MAPE periode 2
MAPE= (23.4+24.52)/(29+25) = 88.7%
1.E. Nilai MAPE terkecil diambil dari nilai rata-rata disetiap metode.
1. F. Gambar Grafik
Grafik Forecast
40
35
Simple average
30
Moving average
25 Weight moving average
20 Exponential Smoothing
15 Demand
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2. A. Forecast Simple Average
F2 = (100+ 104) / 2= 102
F3 = (100+ 104 + 108)/3 = 104
MSE periode 2
MSE= (102-104)^2= 4
MSE periode 3
MSE= ((102-104)^2)+ ((104-108)^2))/2 = 16
MSE periode 3
MSE= (104-108)^2= 16
MSE periode 2
MSE= ((104-108)^2+ ((108-112)^2))/2 = 16
MSE periode 3
MSE= (105.2-108)^2= 7.8
MSE periode 4
MSE= ((109.2-112)^2+ ((105.2-108)^2))/2 = 7.8
MSE periode 3
MSE= (105.2-108)^2= 33.2
MSE periode 4
MSE= ((104.19-112)^2+ ((102.24-108)^2))/2 = 61
2.E. Nilai MSE terkecil diambil dari nilai rata-rata disetiap metode.
Maka nilai MSE terkecil berada pada metode weight moving average
2. F. Gambar Grafik
Gambar Grafik
140
120
Simple average
100
Moving average
80 Weight moving average
Exponential Smoothing
60 Demand
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12