Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Task 1 - Expected value, trees of decision and theory of utility

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and

Unit Engineering
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be ye ☒ N ☐
enable s o
d
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 4
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the Delivery Environment of the activity:
activity: 100 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Friday, March
Saturday, February 15, 2020 13, 2020
Competence to develop:

The student uses in real situations, the expected value, the trees of decision
and the theory of the utility in the decision making that guarantees the
development and continuity of a decision process in production and
management problems.

Topics to develop:

Unit 1. Decision models under risks

1. Expected value
2. Decision Trees
3. Utility Theory

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as

follows:

Step 1. In each of the Exercises, that is, from 1 to 3, the student must solve
the proposed questions by decision trees, find the expected values of the
perfect and sample information are key to determine the final efficiency in
the decision making process. Take into account the probabilities and values
of the demand to go step by arming the decision trees and calculate the
values that will help you solve each of the questions in the guide.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the

Exercises solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the
contributions of all the participants in the activity. To divide among the
members of the collaborative groups the proposed Exercises is not a
methodology of the course, as the qualification will be done according to the
contributions presented individually.

Step 2. The group will use the tool found in the practical learning
environment to immediately solve the proposed Exercises and check if the
answers obtained by the manual methods described above coincide and
discuss whether the use of techno pedagogical tools to solve Exercises of
operations research.

Stage 3. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment.
Activities to develop

Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up task 1, these should be
developed individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the
discussion, correction, consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online
tool that is available in the practical learning environment to check results of
manual and online methods of the Exercises raised.

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-

378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the
knowledge environment of the course.

Exercise 1. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign

market of 25 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main
plant, or if on the contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. The table shows projected
profits, in millions of dollars.

Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature
Demand low
Decision alternative Demand low- Demand High
average -
utility - utility
utility
Manufacture 321 352 367
Subcontract 335 353 381
Buy 318 361 375
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,35 0,35 0,3

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted

Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample
Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better

estimate of the demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report

a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional
probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,35 P(D/low) = 0,65

P(F/low average) = 0,41 P(D/ low average) = 0,59
P(F/high) = 0,32 P(D/high) = 0,68

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Exercise 2. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

ElectroCom, a company that manufactures electronic components for the

introduction in its product catalog, must decide whether to manufacture a
new product in its main plant, subcontract it with company supervision or if it
buys it from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the
product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

According to the corresponding information in Table 2 and the Predicted

Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample
Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better

estimate of the demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report

a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional
probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,15 P(D/low) = 0,85

 P(F/low average) = 0,45 P(D/ low average) = 0,55
P(F/high medium) = 0,3 P(D/ high medium) = 0,7
P(F/high) = 0,5 P(D/high) = 0,5

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Exercise 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign

market of 30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main
plant, or if on the contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. The table shows projected
profits, in millions of dollars.

According to the corresponding information in Table 3 and the Predicted

Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample
Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better

estimate of the demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report

a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional
probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,21 P(D/low) = 0,79

P(F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(F/high medium) = 0,42 P(D/ high medium) = 0,58
P(F/high) = 0,3 P(D/high) = 0,7

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Exercise 4. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative

activity

As a group activity enter the Practical Environment, this space presents a

URL that will direct them to a resource page and with the data entry they can
check the solution of each of the proposed Exercises, remember to attach
screenshots to their collaborative work final, income and table of results for
the exercises.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment
a single file in EXCEL format consolidating the contributions of all the
participants in the space named Task 1. Unit 1.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and
for the
monitoring environment
development
Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum
of the activity, the development and solution of each of the
proposed exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the

resource provided in the practical learning environment and
upload the screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document

must be submitted in Excel format, with the following
Products to
specifications:
deliver by
student
Expected Product: EXCEL file marked with its Working
Group_212066_TC1, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards,
with the following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively

in the consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the
proposed theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the
recourse online that performed in the practical learning
environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that
supports the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Planning of Task-based learning (TBL), also known as task-

activities for the based approach, is a model that manages to
 transform teacher-based teaching to student-based
instruction. In TBL the student is progressively
gaining responsibility with their learning from the
solution of problems of the profession which
facilitates motivation and allows significant learning.

This model promotes organizing the course

development of
according to a final task or a set of tasks that will
collaborative work
guide the presentation of the different contents
(Liang, 2008). The elaboration of the task is
contemplated, according to Nunan in three phases
called: Pre-task, Cycle of the task and Post-task.
Each of these moments will require certain specific
information for the development of the task and the
achievement of the proposed objectives
Roles to perform by Recognition of actors as subjects:
the student in the
collaborative group The students at the beginning of the course, in the
space destined to do so, will be recognized as
participants of a collaborative group, they will be
able to present their strengths to the service of the
group and they will define the channels of
communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype, social networking
links.) of which will be available to interact
effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the

principle of responsible action, students must design
a work plan based on the analytical reflection of the
activity agenda, the evaluation plan, the guides and
rubrics given for the development of each academic
activity . They will also design a proposal for the
planning of their collaborative work that responds to
the particularities and needs of the learning strategy
and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the

principles of collaborative work and implement them
from the beginning of the academic year and
thereby ensure excellence in their learning processes
and the presentation of academic products that
meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the

student, this principle materializes when defining the
ways and mechanisms that will enable interaction in
collaborative work. The intention is for students to
participate in the different spaces of Collaborative
 Work and the general forum of the Initial
Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute

to the process of the other peers. From this idea, in
the same scenario where interactions occur,
students can contribute to others in terms of
suggesting greater participation to those who do not
intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that
support the process being carried out, among others
that allow the team to advance and that each one
can strengthen its formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should

organize their work to achieve the goals set. It is
important that each one assumes actions in the
development of the work that contribute in the
achievement of good results of the equipment. The
aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of
individual efforts, allow a successful collaborative
exercise. It is also important to consider aspects of
evaluation in the student's exercise, through the
following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the

process in which the student, through an instrument
designed (Survey) recognizes and presents its
strengths and difficulties in the development of
collaborative work. A score has not been assigned
on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow
him / her to progress in his / her formative process
based on the difficulties identified during the
development of the activities, their individual
participation and their interaction with the group.
Roles and Compiler: Consolidate the document that
responsibility for constitutes the final product of the debate, taking
the delivery of into account that the contributions of all the
products by participants have been included and that only the
students participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts to warn those who did not participate, that
they will not be included in the product to be
delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the

rules of submission of work required by the teacher.

Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the

 criteria present in the rubric. You must inform the
person in charge of the alerts so that you inform the
other members of the team in case any adjustments
need to be made on the subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the
products and send the document in the stipulated
times, using the resources destined for the
shipment, and indicate to the other partners that the
delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are

notified of new developments and inform the teacher
through the work forum and messaging of the
course, which has been sent the document.
Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish
(Translation of version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of
social sciences. These are published under a Manual
that allows you to have access to the ways in which
a scientific article should be presented. Here you can
Use of references find the most relevant aspects of the sixth edition of
the APA Standards Manual, such as references,
citations, preparation and presentation of tables and
figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

Plagiarism policy In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article

99, the mistakes that infringe upon the academic
order, among others, are the following: paragraph
e) “To plagiarize is to present as your own work the
whole or part of a writing, report, task or document
of invention performed by another person. It also
implies the use of cites or lack of references, or
includes cites where there is no coincidence between
them and the reference” and paragraph f)”To
reproduce, or copy for profit, educational resources
or results of research products, which have
intellectual rights reserved for the University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face

are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the

academic work or evaluation, the score
achieved will be zero (0.0) without leading to
disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic
work of any nature, the score achieved will be
zero (0.0), without leading to disciplinary
measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Task 1 - Expected value, trees of decision and theory of utility
Type of X X
Individual activity Collaborative activity
activity
Moment of Intermediate, unit 1 X
Initial Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student
participated in the effective
participated actively
Individual forum, but his elaboration of the
and effectively in
student contributions are work is limited, so
the elaboration of
participation fairly effective in the achievement of 10
the requested
in the forum the creation of the the objectives is
product.
final product. inadequate.
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
Although the
Use of tree The objectives of
proposed theme is
criteria for the work were
treated, the body of
processes satisfactorily The document
the document does
that require fulfilled, the leaves unresolved
not adequately
decision Exercises of Trees decision trees, so
solve the situation,
making in the are solved correctly that optimality 25
the conclusions are
exercise 1 in and the analysis of decisions are left
not relevant
production their results leads unanswered.
according to the
and to an optimal
results obtained by
management decision-making.
the decision tree.
problems
Until 25 points Until 13 points Until 0 points
Use criterions Although the
The objectives of
EPVI and proposed theme is
the work were
EPMI for treated, the body of The document
satisfactorily
processes the document does leaves the EPVI
fulfilled, by the
that require not adequately and EPMI
different EPVI and
decision solve the situation, criterions
EPMI criterions were
making in the the conclusions are unresolved, so 25
solved correctly and
exercises 2 not relevant efficiency decisions
the analysis of their
and 3 in according to the are left
results led to
production results obtained by unanswered.
optimal decision-
and the different EPVI
making.
management and EPMI criterions.
problems Until 25 points Until 13 points Until 0 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
presents an lacks some elements The basic norms for
excellent structure, of the requested the construction of
all the exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of solved according to comply with the nonexistent like the
20
the Report the proposed norms for written criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
criterions of the
course.

Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points

Although the use of
The practical
The use of the the practical
environment of the
practical environment in the
course has been no
environment of the final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
that reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 20
learning analysis of these are the application lack
of the application
environment shown correctly in analysis and
to solve the
the final work conclusions
Exercises raised
presented. pertinent to efficient
has been limited.
decision making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Final score 100