‘The More Things Change,

The More They Remain The Same’

Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr Presented by Bismarck Rewane

CEO, Financial Derivatives Company Ltd.
August 22nd, 2019
New Team- Features & Characteristics
Total ministers: 43
By profession
20 19

14 Old 15

29 New 10
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2 2
0
New Old Lawyers Politicians Accountants Oil experts

Gender Demography

36 men 7 women Youngest : 44years Oldest: 73years 3

Ministerial Structure

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Spot the Difference (2015 Vs 2019)
 Finance, budget & national planning merged
 Police affairs ministry resuscitated
 Power, works & housing spilt
 No more water resources ministry
 A new ministry of Humanitarian affairs
established

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Likely Impact – High Hopes
Expectations Reality
(2020)
GDP growth rate (%) 3.7 2-2.2
Inflation (%) 6-9 11-12

Exchange Rate (N/$) 305/360 365/375

Oil production(mbpd) 1.75 1.9

External reserves ($’bn) 45 42

Unemployment 25 25

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Impact on Policy
 Alignment between monetary and fiscal teams
 More forex restriction & economic patriotism
 Additional Eurobond borrowing
 Stock market weakness to continue
 Emphasis on infrastructure investment

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Resulting In

 Labour productivity: now at -0.1%

 Total factor productivity: up to
0.7% in 2021
 Measures economic efficiency

 A predictor of future growth

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Risks

 Price of oil declines below $50pb

 Production is disrupted
 Boko Haram insurgency resurfaces

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What Next?
 Execution of budget 2019
 Full implementation of new minimum wage
 Further guidelines on forex restriction
 Preparation of budget 2020
 MPC in September: status quo

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