Philippine Public Safety College

National Police College

MASTER IN PUBLIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION

COURSE DIRECTOR INSTRUCTION:

Choose one from any of the attached risk assessment scenarios.

1. Identify the risks according to level of priority

2. Create a plan to address the identified risks.

RISK ASSESSMENT SCENARIO: THE FOOTBALL MATCH

I. SITUATION : The Scenario

You have been asked to carry out a risk assessment for a local football match which is being
played in four weeks’ time at your local school. The school is hosting a quarter-final cup match
for the regional schools knock-out challenge cup between the school’s under-14 team mixed
(boys’ and girls’) team against a school team from a town some 100 kilometres away. The two
teams have not played in the competition before. The ‘away’ team (the Red Rascals) will be
travelling to your local school by a team coach. In the last round of the cup the Red Rascal’s
supporters were involved in some very disturbing and violent scenes with the supporters of their
opponents (the Black Cats) who were narrowly beaten by a controversial penalty during extra
time. There was a pitch invasion at the end of the game by Black Cats supporters and racist
chants were reported during the match coming from the same Black Cats fans. Unconfirmed
reports are circulating on social media platforms suggesting that some Black Cats supports are
planning to disrupt the match at your local school and ‘seek revenge’ for their recent defeat.
There is a rumour circulating in your local school that the Black Cats fans may be bringing
weapons with them. Your local police are aware of the match, but do not think the Black Cats
supporters will travel such a distance and are downplaying local concerns. The Red Rascals
school management committee is worried about possible reprisals, but do not want the match to
be cancelled. It is believed that any trouble will be started by the Black Cats supporters.

II. EVALUATION OF RISK:

The given scenario presents several risks arising from the final round of the local football
match between the Red Rascals and the Black Cats. Particularly, when the Black Cats were
narrowly beaten by a controversial penalty during extra time prompting, their supporters were
reported to have been chanting racist remarks during the match and thereafter committed a pitch
invasion at the end of the game. Supporters from both teams became involved in some very
disturbing and violent scenes and soon unconfirmed reports began circulating on social media
platforms regarding the alleged plans of some Black Cats supporters to disrupt the match and
‘seek revenge’ for their recent defeat while also bringing weapons along with them. These
threats were taken lightly by the local police as they believe that the Black Cats supporters would
unlikely travel such a long distance in the first place. However, based on the given scenario, we
believe that there are certain risks which may be encountered en route to the quarter-final cup
match as well as on site the venue. These risks are outlined as follows:

During Movement:

 Assault/attack to the competing team

 Mobs and Disturbances
 Discovery of suspected bomb
 Bombing incident at the roadside
 Shooting and other crime incident
 Medical Emergencies

At the site/venue of event:

 Assault/attack to the competing team

 Conflict between and among competing teams
 Stampede
 Mobs and Disturbances
 Bombing incident
 Medical Emergencies

III. RISK AND VULNERABILITY:

Applying the Risk Assessment Matrix, there were five (5) possible scenarios identified:

During Movements
Scenarios Likelihood Consequences
(1-5) (1-5)
1. Mobs and Disturbances 5 3
2. Assault/attack to the 4 2
competing team
3. Medical Emergencies 3 3
 4. Shooting and other crime 2 4
incident
5. Bombing incident at the 1 5
roadside

At the site/venue of event

Scenarios Likelihood Consequences
(1-5) (1-5)
1. Conflict between and among 5 2
competing teams
2. Mobs and Disturbances 4 3
3. Stampede 4 2
4. Medical Emergencies 3 1
5. Bombing incident 1 5

Risk Assessment Matrix

During Movements
Probable Mobs and
5 Disturbances
(15)
Likely Assault/
attack to the
4 competing
team
(8)
Likelihood

Possible Medical
3 Emergencies
(9)
Unlikely Shooting and
other crime
2 incident
(8)
Very Bombing
unlikely incident
1 at the
roadside
(5)
1 2 3 4 5

Insignificant Minor Significant Major Critical

Consequences
Based on the above Risk Assessment Matrix for en route risks, the possibility of having mobs
and disturbances en route is the most probable safety risk scenario with significant impacts due
to the hostilities observed between the competing teams in the past match where the team’s
supporters were involved in some very disturbing and violent scenes. Likewise, there was the
incident from the Black Cats supporters doing a pitch invasion and chanting racist remarks in the
past match. Since the supporters have displayed similar actions in the past match, it is likely that
they may escalate to form mobs and at the least disturbances in the following game.
Assault/attack to the competing team likewise poses a likely safety risk scenario although with
minor foreseen impacts as the past events in the previous match showed the inclination of the
supporters from both teams to engage in such violence. On the other hand, medical emergencies
pose a possible health risk scenario with a significant impact most likely due to the high
possibility of mobs, disturbances, and assault as well as the 100 kilometre travel necessary which
may make take medical responders longer to address any medical emergency. Finally, shooting
and other crime incident as well as bombing incidents on the roadside poses an unlikely and very
unlikely safety risk scenario respectively but are foreseen to have major to critical consequences.
These threats of shooting and bombing are derived from the unconfirmed reports circulating on
social media regarding the potential use of weapons by the opposing team – the Black Cats yet
are unlikely due to the movement of the buses which makes use of weapons and bombing
difficult to commit and to get away with due to lengthy travel distance.

At the site/venue of event

Probable Conflict
between and
among
5 competing
teams
(10)
Likelihood

Likely Stampede Mobs and

4 (8) Disturbances
(12)
Possible Medical
3 Emergencies
(3)
Unlikely 2
Very Bombing
unlikely 1 incident
(5)
1 2 3 4 5
Insignificant Minor Significant Major Critical
Consequences

Based on the above Risk Assessment Matrix for on-site risks, conflict between and among
competing teams poses the most probable security/safety risk scenario but with only minor
consequences due to the past actions seen in the previous match where supporters from both the
Red Rascals and the Black Cats were seen to be in conflict with one another as they were
involved in violent scenes during the game. Following this are stampedes as well as mobs and
disturbances which poses a likely security/safety risk scenario with minor and significant impacts
respectively – these risks are derived from the past inclination shown by supporters from the
previous match to form large crowds committing violence and was most observed during the
pitch invasion committed by the Black Cats supporters. Medical emergencies pose a possible yet
insignificant risk as while there are possible medical emergencies due to potential violence
between and among supporters of various teams, on-site medical personnel will be available to
address these concerns promptly thereby decreasing its impacts. Lastly, bombing incidents are
very unlikely due to possible checking of weapons on-site however; it has a critical impact
should it occur.