Service Demand Estimation

Eye Care Services

Dr Ramachandra Pararajasegaram
Community Eye Health Education Centre
L V Prasad Eye Institute
COMMON WEALTH OF AUSTRALIA

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Estimation of Cataract Backlog
• Blindness and Cataract Data

Total Size of the Target Population

% Blindness in Target Population

% Blindness Due to Cataract

Estimated Cataract Eyes

Cataract Surgical Coverage

o Proportion of cataracts that can be
operated upon with existing resources

Cataract Surgery Backlog

Service Demand Estimation

• Cataract Surgery Delivery

Cataract Surgical Rate (CSR)

No. of New Cataracts / Year

Estimated Surgeries / Year

Unmet Demand / Year

Annual addition to Backlog

Required Cataract Surgical Rate

Estimation of Uncorrected RE

• Refractive Error Data

Size of Each Age Group

Incidence in Each Age Group

Spectacle Use in Each Age Group

Uncorrected RE in Each Age Group

o 0 – 4 years

o 5 – 14 years

o 15 – 44 years

o Above 44 years
Service Demand Estimation

• Optical Service Delivery

Potential Spectacle Users

Estimated Spectacle Users

Average Life of Spectacles

Spectacle Pairs per Person

Utilized Optical Market Size

Potential Optical Market Size

Untapped Optical Market Size

Estimation of DR Need

• Diabetic Retinopathy Data

Population at Risk of Diabetes

o Urban and rural population

Prevalence of Diabetes in Above

o Urban and rural prevalence

Incidence of Diabetic Retinopathy

o Urban and rural incidence

Laser Treatment Coverage & Backlog

o Urban and rural coverage and rate
Service Demand Estimation

• DR Service Delivery

Frequency of Diabetic Patient Visits

Frequency of DR Patient Visits

Estimated Out Patient Visits

Required Out Patient Visits

Number of Lasers per DR Patient

Estimated No. of Laser Procedures

Unavailable Laser Procedure Sessions

Sources of Data

• WHO Reports

• IAPB Website

• Publications

• Surveys
Appendix

• Blindness

Presenting vision in the better eye is < 6/60

• Unilateral Blindness

Presenting vision in one eye is < 6/60

Presenting vision in the other eye is ≥ 6/60