CEEMEA Emerging Markets

Research
30 April 2020

Pakistan: External support

shores up confidence
Stay long the 16-Jul-20 T-bills (FX-unhedged)

 The pandemic has pushed the economy to recession together with the rest EM, Economic and Policy
of the world. In response, the authorities have unveiled stimulus measures to Research
support activity including sharp policy rate cuts. However, we expect only a Giyas M Gokkent AC
modest 2.4% growth rebound next fiscal year after a 1.4% contraction in the (44-20) 7134-6789
current fiscal year ending in June. giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com
Emerging Markets Strategy
 The shutdown is expected to sharply weaken the fiscal position. The fiscal
Milo Gunasinghe AC
targets under the EFF program had already been too ambitious, we note, and we (44-20) 7134 8063
now see the deficit widening to almost 10% of GDP. milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com
Saad Siddiqui
 Despite a likely decline in remittances, we expect the current account (44-20) 7742-5067
deficit to remain low supported by lower oil prices. saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
 Following the announcement of $1.4bn (0.5% of GDP) IMF funding under
the Rapid Financing Instrument, sentiment has been improving.

 Strategy: We remain long Pakistan 16-Jul-20 T-bills (FX-unhedged) with

3m left to maturity. With three months left to maturity we hold our T-bills for
three reasons: (1) the scope for further sharp foreign deleveraging is lower; (2)
the adjustment of the currency is likely sufficient for now; and (3) the
multilateral lenders support leaves the financing of the balance of payments in
reasonable shape in coming quarters.

 That said, given lower nominal interest rates and limited scope for capital gains
via currency appreciation, we do not recommend fresh positions at prevailing
yields.

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

The official number of COVID-19 cases has been low so far, but the authorities
have prudently introduced measures to limit the spread of the outbreak.
Pakistan has reported 15,759 cases and 346 deaths, amongst the lowest in the
MENAP region as a proportion of the population (Exhibit 1). However, concerns
were raised due to the very low level of testing the country is currently running
(Exhibit 2). Pakistan has run as few as 751 tests per million, similar to Morocco and
Egypt, but far fewer than in wealthy countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar.
As a result, authorities imposed a strict lockdown despite frictions between provinces
and the federal government, with the latter less keen on shutting down the country.

Exhibit 1: MENAP COVID-19 cases Exhibit 2: MENAP COVID-19 testing

Cases (LHS); Cases per million (RHS) Thous of tests performed (LHS); Thous of tests performed per mn of persons (RHS)
20000 4500 1200 120
IR: 91,472
4000
1000 100
15000 3500
Cumulative 3000 800 80
Per million of people 2500
10000 600 60
2000
1500 400 40
5000 1000
200 20
500
0 0 0 0
IR SA PK QA AE EG MA DZ KU BH OM IQ TN LB JO AE IR SA KU PK BH EG QA IQ JO LB MA TN
Sources: J.P. Morgan, Johns Hopkins University as of 27-Apr-20 Source: J.P. Morgan, Worldometer as of 27-Apr-20

Authorities have put in place significant monetary and fiscal measures to

counteract the negative economic impact of the pandemic. The federal
government approved a stimulus package of PKR1.2tn (about 3% of GDP) and
earmarked a further PKR200bn to help workers. Authorities also introduced an
additional PKR75bn relief package for workers this week (see here). SBP also
introduced a number of funds to provide liquidity, to facilitate the import of medical
instruments and drugs, and slashed interest rates by a cumulative 425bps in just a
month. SBP first lowered policy rates by 75bp in its scheduled march meeting and a
further 150 bps and 200 bps in two emergency meetings, bringing the key policy rate
from 13.25% to 9.0%. The sharp monetary easing came despite the pressure on the
rupee which lost 8% of its value against the dollar in March amidst foreign portfolio
investment outflows (Exhibit 3) which lowered international reserves by $2bn.

Exhibit 3: Foreign portfolio investment in Pakistan

$mn
3000 FPI FPI 12m rolling avg
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17 Dec-17 Sep-18 Jun-19 Mar-20

Source: J.P. Morgan, SBP

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

However, the latest high frequency data seems to suggest that most of the
pressure has abated following likely SBP intervention and announcement of
international assistance. Rupee has regained some of the lost ground, appreciating
against the dollar in April and international reserves increasing by about $1bn. The
SBP also hinted that more monetary easing might be on the way and we now believe
that the key policy rate will be cut by a further 50bp in the scheduled May meeting
(Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4: Pakistan SBP target rate and headline inflation

%yoy and %. Shaded is JPM forecast.

14
SBP target rate (%) Headline inflation (%yoy)
12

10

0
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Source: J.P. Morgan, SBP.

Following the pandemic, we expect the economy to contract by 1.4% this year,
after growing 3.3% last year. Prior to the outbreak, we had penciled in a weak, but
still positive growth at 2.1% in FY20/21. We now believe that the economy will
contract by 1.4% in the fiscal year ending in June, with risks skewed on the
downside. The authorities expect the economy to contract by 1.6%. We believe that
the bounce-back will be gradual and expect 2.4% growth in 20/21 (down from 3.2%
in the previous forecast). This will be the first contraction in the economy on record.

Multilateral lenders have played a key role to support sentiment. IMF approved
the disbursement of $1.4bn (0.5% of GDP) to Pakistan under the Rapid Financing
Instrument (RFI) on April 16th, to help the country in addressing the challenges
related to COVID-19. However, the $6bn EFF program review was put on hold. The
second review of the EFF, which would have potentially given the green light to the
$0.5bn disbursement, was supposed to happen in April. Following the COVID-19
crisis, we believe performance criteria and indicative targets under the EFF were
unlikely to be met and the program parameters will likely need substantial revision.

The World Bank also approved a new $200mn loan and diverted a further $1bn
from different projects. Moreover, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has agreed
in principal to an $800mn loan. On the bilateral side, G-20 countries proposed a
suspension of debt repayments from May to December 2020. While details are not
clear yet, this could result in relief of about $1.8bn this year (0.6% of GDP).

Given high debt, the prospect of international assistance is a welcome relief.

Pakistan has about $90bn of public external liabilities with almost half of this due
during the EFF program period which is scheduled to end in the first quarter of
FY22/23 (Table 1). China is by far the largest creditor with $15.5bn plus a further
$6.7bn in commercial debt (Exhibit 5 and Exhibit 6).

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

Table 1: Pakistan public external liabilities and repayment schedule over EFF period ($mn)
Outstanding Debt FY2019/20 FY2020/21 FY2021/22 FY2022/23 1Q Total
Paris Club 10,924 709 788 838 43 2,378
Austria 23 3 4 4 0 11
Belgium 16 2 3 3 0 8
Canada 395 15 23 24 0 62
Finland 3 0 1 1 0 2
France 1,572 132 156 169 16 473
Germany 1,300 74 83 86 0 242
Italy 163 3 5 5 0 13
Japan 5,534 311 326 337 27 1,002
Korea 424 38 46 52 1 136
The Netherlands 81 5 5 5 0 14
Norway 10 1 2 2 0 5
Russia 68 10 11 13 0 33
Spain 61 4 5 5 0 14
Sweden 86 12 14 16 0 42
Switzerland 75 8 9 11 0 28
United Kingdom 5 1 1 1 0 2
United States 1,108 90 96 105 0 291
Non-Paris Club Bilateral 25,015 7,902 7,023 1,881 375 17,181
China 15,519 3,353 3,481 700 365 7,899
Kuwait 159 13 14 15 8 49
Libya 4 0 0 0 0 1
Saudi Arabia 2/ 6,805 3,029 2,523 1,165 0 6,717
UAE 2,028 1,006 1,005 2 2 2,015
Qatar 500 500 0 0 0 500
Multilateral 30,313 2,314 1,640 1,726 603 6,283
Islamic Development Bank 3/ 1,901 870 91 92 25 1,079
ADB 12,509 825 886 875 282 2,867
AIIB 73 0 0 7 4 11
ECO Trade Bank 42 41 1 0 0 42
IBRD 1,422 102 123 135 58 419
IDA 14,013 459 520 599 230 1,809
Int'l Fund for Agri. Development 266 8 9 10 2 28
Nordic Development Fund 7 1 1 1 0 2
OPEC FUND 80 8 8 8 1 25
EIB 0 0 0 0 0 0
Commercial 9,597 4,164 3,410 4,491 0 12,065
China commercial 6,736 2,200 2,500 4,391 0 9,091
Others 2,861 1,964 910 100 0 2,974
Bonds 6,855 1,000 0 1,000 0 2,000
IMF 6,373 744 1,006 1,018 259 3,026
Total 89,078 16,833 13,866 10,955 1,279 42,932
Sources: IMF. 1/ Estimated as of end-August 2019; IMF as of end-September 2019. 2/ Including agreed inflows from oil facilities
scheduled to be disbursed over FY20. 3/ Includes short-term oil facilities of $0.6 billion.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

Exhibit 5: Outstanding public external liabilities Exhibit 6: Outstanding public external liabilities - selected partners
$bn $bn, debt over $1bn
35 18
o/w China 16
30
14
25 12
10
20
8
15
6
10 4
2
5
0
CN IDA ADB SA CN JP AE ISDB FR IBRD DE US
0
Multilateral Non-Paris Paris Club Commercial Bonds IMF pvt

Source: J.P. Morgan, IMF Source: J.P. Morgan, IMF

The shutdown is expected to sharply weaken the fiscal position. Since the start of
the EFF program, fiscal targets had already appeared too ambitious. Pakistani
authorities were actually able to relax some targets related to tax collection
compensating this with an increase in non-tax revenues. We currently expect a deficit
just shy of 10% of GDP (9.9%) for FY20/21 as a result of plunging revenues and
stimulus measures. The authorities expect the deficit to widen to 9.6% of GDP.

Despite a likely decline in remittances, we expect the current account deficit to

remain low supported by lower oil prices. The current account deficit is projected
at -1.8% of GDP in this FY with a marginal pick-up in the next year in line with
economic activity. The external accounts improved a lot from a deficit of -4.9% of
GDP in FY18/19 thanks to a sharp contraction in imports after the rupee devaluation
of May 19. However, a big source of uncertainty for the near future is related to
remittances (Exhibit 7). This secondary income component is the key positive
component of Pakistani balance of payments, equivalent to almost 8% of GDP. In the
latest print for March, remittances were up by more than 9%oya, but they are now
expected to plunge due to the global recession and likely fall of income of expatriates
in the region. Pakistani remittances are very concentrated with about 50% coming
from the GCC and a further 30% from the US and the UK. We expect remittances to
contract this fiscal year before starting to pick-up gradually in the next year once
economic activity recovers in those economies. While a decline in remittances is
likely to have a large negative effect on BOP, plunging oil prices are having the
opposite effect. Imports of oil and petroleum products accounted for about a quarter
of total imports and 4.5% of GDP prior to the pandemic.

Exhibit 7: Current account balance improved on lower imports

US$ bn (12mma; LHS); US$bn (RHS)

Source: J.P. Morgan, SBP

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

Strategy: Stay long the 16-Jul-20 T-bills (FX-unhedged) with

3m left to maturity
We remain long Pakistan 16-Jul-20 T-bills (FX-unhedged) with 3m left to
maturity (mark to market: 0.2% in USD since entry on 17-Jan). We bought 6m
Pakistan T-bills (FX-unhedged) in late January as a classic stabilization trade with an
IMF program anchor (see Pakistan: The New Frontier). Since then Pakistan
government securities first, attracted close to $3.4bn of foreign inflows (from close to
flat at the start of the year), and then, had an equally rapid bout of outflows on
COVID-19 related shocks. Despite the large volatility, Pakistan local market returns
have been one of the outperformers across Frontier Markets following a strong
rebound this month (Exhibit 8).With three months left to maturity we hold our T-
bills for three reasons: (1) the scope for further sharp foreign deleveraging is lower;
(2) the adjustment of the currency is likely sufficient for now; and (3) the multilateral
lenders support leaves the financing of the balance of payments in reasonable shape
in coming quarters.
Exhibit 8: Positive returns YTD following strong rebound in April
Total FX return vs USD including carry or T-bill/govt bond return if more representative. Returns calculated
using mid/mid levels.
Frontier market returns (2020YTD and 1m ago, %, mids)
15 2020YTD 1m ago
9.0
10 6.6 7.35.9
4.4 5.8
3.9 3.7
5 1.8 1.5 0.8
0
-5 -1.0 -1.3-1.8
-4.0
-10 -6.2
-8.2
-15 -12.4 -13.5 -14.4 -13.0
-20
-25
-30 -26.8
UAH PKR GHS KZT NGN GBIEM EMBI GD EGP RSD ZMW KES
GD
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Note: 12-m T-bill used for NGN and EGP (adj. for withholding tax), 4y govt bond for GHS, Dec-27s
for ZMW, Jan-33 KENIBs for KES, 12m NDF mid for KZT, and UAH; Feb-28s for RSD; and 31-Dec-20 T-bill for PKR

The large foreign deleveraging in T-bills has likely stabilized. Pakistan

government securities attracted a large amount of foreign inflows with ownership
peaking at PKR527bn in late February (roughly $3.4bn, Exhibit 9), from close to flat
at the start of 2020, amid a much more benign global risk environment. The outflows
on COVID-19 related shocks have been equally as rapid. Non-residents sold more
than half of their pre COVID-19 stock of Pakistan government securities, slightly
more than our estimates for the larger frontier carry markets of Egypt and Nigeria
(Table 2). With the currency now reversing the depreciation vs the dollar, outflows
have subsided with latest weekly data indicating small net foreign inflows into
Pakistan T-bills.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

Exhibit 9: Foreign outflows from Pakistan T-bills have been sharp

Non-resident ownership of Pakistan government securities in SCRA scheme
600
(PKRbn)
T-bills Bonds
500

400

300

200

100

0
20-Sep
27-Sep

03-Jan
10-Jan
17-Jan
24-Jan
31-Jan
07-Feb
14-Feb
21-Feb
28-Feb
06-Mar
13-Mar
20-Mar
27-Mar
03-Apr
10-Apr
17-Apr
01-Nov
08-Nov
15-Nov
22-Nov
29-Nov
06-Dec
13-Dec
20-Dec
27-Dec
04-Oct
11-Oct
18-Oct
25-Oct
Source: J.P. Morgan, SBP. Latest values as of week 17-Apr.

Table 2: Foreign holdings of Pakistan government securities more than halved since COVID-19

Outflows around COVID-19 Latest holdings

Latest foreign holdings
% of foreign stock % FX
($bn, as of) $bn %GDP
pre COVID-19 reserves
Pakistan $1.2bn (17-Apr) $2.2bn 69% 0.4% 7.3%
$7.7bn YTD (JPM
Nigeria $7bn (Apr) 52% 1.8% 20.7%
estimate)
Egypt $6.3bn (Apr) $14bn (JPM estimate) 67% 1.8% 16.1%
Ghana $6.8bn (end Feb) We estimate marginal outflows 10.8% 67.3%
Ukraine $4.2bn (21-Apr) $0.5bn 12% 2.4% 16.7%
Source: J.P. Morgan. Outflows around COVID-19 defined as net foreign outflows since early March with exception of Nigeria (YTD).
Egypt, Nigeria, and Ghana are J.P. Morgan estimates (see here for more details). % of foreign stock is non-resident net outflows as
share of foreign stock prior to COVID-19. E.g. non-residents sold 12% of their stock of Ukraine government securities.

The currency adjustment is likely sufficient for now. The Pakistan Rupee has
regained some of the lost ground (Exhibit 10), appreciating 5.7% vs the USD since
the peak of the sell-off in early April. This is on a likely combination of the
slowdown in foreign deleveraging and news on multilateral external support, with
total liquid reserves increasing by about $1.48bn in the same period (as of 24-Apr).
In our view, the likelihood of a further gap higher in USDPKR is low given cleaner
foreign positioning and the shift recovery in several global risk markets (see here).
Moving forward, we expect gradual medium-term depreciation of the currency to
resume.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

Exhibit 10: USDPKR retracing move higher Exhibit 11: Short-end yields around 550bp lower since end February
after 425bp of policy rate cuts
Pakistan local government yield curve (%)
28-Feb 24-Apr
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Policy O/N 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Label value as of 30-Apr-20
rate repo rate
Source: J.P. Morgan, SBP, Refinitiv/Haver, SBP. Latest T-bill yields as of 22-Apr auction, and
long-end yields from Refinitiv as of 24-Apr-20

Short-end yields have moved sharply lower following the large COVID-19
related policy easing. The SBP cut the policy rate by a cumulative 425bp in a month
in one scheduled and two emergency meetings. In line with the policy easing, the
Pakistan curve has moved markedly lower with the short-end leading the way
(Exhibit 11). We expect an additional 50bp rate cut in the scheduled May meeting
bringing the policy rate down to 8.50%.While Pakistan would still be left with one of
the highest forward looking real policy rates across the Frontier Markets (Exhibit
12), given lower nominal interest rates and limited scope for capital gains via
currency appreciation, we do not recommend fresh positions at prevailing yields,
particularly as uncertainty regarding the future shape of the existing EFF remains.

Exhibit 12: Pakistan’s forward looking real policy rate is one of the highest in Frontier Markets
%, J.P. Morgan 4Q20 policy rate minus 4Q20 average headline inflation forecasts as of 27-Apr-20
7.0 Forward looking real policy rate premium (4Q20 policy rate minus 4Q20 avg
headline inflation forecasts)
6.0
5.0
4.0

3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Egypt Pakistan Ukraine Ghana Nigeria Kazakhstan Serbia

Source: J.P. Morgan

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

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Global Sovereign Research Universe 13% 71% 16%
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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ahmet.x.berkmen@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

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10

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 Giyas M Gokkent Saad Siddiqui CEEMEA Emerging Markets Research
(44-20) 7134-6789 (44-20) 7742-5067 Pakistan: External support shores up confidence
giyas.gokkent@jpmorgan.com saad.siddiqui@jpmorgan.com 30 April 2020
Milo Gunasinghe
(44-20) 7134 8063
milinda.gunasinghe@jpmorgan.com

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11
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