Letter of transmittal

20th April, 2020

To,
Dr.Md. Nazrul Islam
Associate Professor
Department of Environmental science and management,
North South University

Subject: letter of Transmittal

Sir,
We hope you will be pleased to know that we have completed our report. The work we did is
Climate Change Impact and Comprehensive Disaster Management Approach in Bangladesh’.
We would like to thank you for your enormous support and valuable guidance.
At every segment of making this project we tried to enhance our knowledge about the
significance of Environmental aspects and how to enhance Geographical efforts by the power
of research.
This report will give the picture of our effort and ability.
It will be very kind of you to examine our project work and give us further suggestions and
enhance our skill for future prospects.

Sincerely yours,

Md. Sajid Saadat Ali

Md. Ashiquzzaman
Sobuj Kumar Ghosh
Ditiya Malek Aparajita
Gazi Rokibul Hasan
Md. Sayef
Protyaee Saha
Md Farhanuzzaman Bhuiyan
Prantanu Roy
Sadia Rahman Tanha
Syeda Raisa Hasnat
Nayem Sarkar
Adipta Ghosh.
Acknowledgement
First and foremost, praises and thanks to the God, the Almighty, for His showers of
blessings throughout my research work to complete the research successfully.

I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to our honorable faculty Dr. Md.
NazrulIslam (Zru) sir , Department of Environmental science and Management, North
South University, for giving us the opportunity to do research and providing in valuable
guidance throughout this research. His dynamism, vision, sincerity and motivation have
deeply inspired us. He has taught us the methodology to carry out the research and to
present the research works as clearly as possible. It was a great privilege and honor to
work and study under his guidance. We are extremely grateful for what he has offered
us. We would also like to thank him for his friendship, empathy, and great sense of
humor. We are extending my heartfelt thanks to his wife, children, family for their
acceptance and patience during the discussion we had with him on research work and
reportpreparation.

Finally, our thanks go to all the people specially Ishtiak Ahmed who have supported us
to complete the report work directly or indirectly. Despite their busy schedule they gave
us their valuable time in making this report unique.

Thanking you,

Md. Sajid Saadat Ali

Md. Ashiquzzaman
Sobuj Kumar Ghosh
Ditiya Malek Aparajita
Gazi Rokibul Hasan
Md. Sayef
Protyaee Saha
Md Farhanuzzaman Bhuiyan
Prantanu Roy
Sadia Rahman Tanha
Syeda Raisa Hasnat
Nayem Sarkar
Adipta Ghosh.
1.0 Introduction:

Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world that is extremely vulnerable to natural

disasters because of its geographic location, flat and low-lying landscape, population density,

poverty, illiteracy, lack of institutional setup and so on (Denissen, 2012). 147,570 sq km

consists mostly of floodplains (almost 80%) leaving major part of the country prone to

flooding during rainy season. Bangladesh experiences various types of natural disasters

almost every year because of global warming issues as climate impacts- floods, cyclones and

storm surges, salinity intrusion, extreme temperature and drought etc. In a changing climate

the pattern of impacts is eroding our assets, investment and future. It also started threatening

settlements and number of people displaced from their land due to riverbank erosion,

permanent inundation and sea level rise which are increasing rapidly every year.

Resources and efforts of government and people are quickly drained addressing the impact of

one event when another hazard strikes. Summers are becoming hotter, monsoon irregular,

untimely or heavy rainfall, crop damages, increasing mortality, extreme cold, outbreak of

dengue, malaria, diarrhea etc are almost running our generation to hazard every year. The

insecurities for food, water, life, property settlement, and livelihood assets are shown in our

country dimensionally. A major concern for Bangladesh are climate change victims who are

increasing in number everyday and must seek refuge due to loss of their homes, land,

settlement to river erosion, coastal erosion and permanent barrage. It has been estimated

that by 2050, one in every seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change.

Up to 18 million people may have to move because of sea level rise alone. [ CITATION Env20 \l

1033 ]

The urban poor are the ones who are directly affected by these changes of climate and

disasters. Risk of natural disasters is being enhanced by the impacts of climate change
especially in the absence or shortage of the necessary infrastructure as well as employment

opportunity for them in the major cities of Bangladesh. Women are especially vulnerable

because of the gender inequalities in the socio-economic and political institutions. During the

1991 Cyclone and storm surge in Bangladesh, the death rate in case of women was almost

five times higher than men. Although vulnerability depends on religion, ethnicity, gender and

the size of their farm operations, social power and local influences often help them from

being long term affected. Government is not always capable to approach their problematic

criticism but reliefs are rarely being delivered to the victims. Policy makers sometimes

overlook local social dynamics when providing early warnings, food, or other social services.

Reacting without careful planning or understanding local societies could leave some people

vulnerable and risks overlooking groups who are already under stress because of climate

change. As Bangladesh seeks ways to adapt to climate change, it could set an example of

inclusive planning for other nations to follow.[ CITATION Zak19 \l 1033 ]

1.1 Statement of the Problem

Weather is the mixture of temperature, cloudiness, humidity etc. in the atmosphere and the

average weather in any specific geographical region is known as Climate. Rain on any

random day of August month is known as weather of Dhaka.On the opposite side, November

to March is considered as the dry season of Bangladesh which is the average weather

condition or the climate of Bangladesh. It does not change in a day rather it takes hundreds of

years to change.

However, the climate is not consistent. Elements of the environment like air, water, land,

decomposers may face imbalance due tounacceptable human activities. Those imbalance in

the ecosystem causes extreme weather events like no rainfall or heavy rainfall, melting ice,
raising the sea level. In the long run, it changes the climate. In most cases the change is

negative.

An analysis on global climate risk [ CITATION Eck18 \l 1033 ] published on German watch

website identifies the most affected countries for climate change werePuerto Rico, Sri Lanka

and Dominica. Bangladesh is in the 7th position.According to CNN [ CITATION Hur17 \l 1033 ] ,

Puerto Rico and Dominica were severely hit by hurricane Mariawhich is the strongest

hurricane on record to make landfall in 2017.“Massive rainfalls have led to floods across

Nepal, Bangladesh and India which affected more than 40 million people among them 1200

people lost their lives in these three countries and millions were displaced throughout the

region.” [ CITATION Eck18 \l 1033 ]Vietnam also got affected by storms, typhoons, droughts,

landfallin the same year. Those disasterstook100 deaths, destroyed thousand houses and

water supplies of Vietnam. Another impact for climate change is mudslides. A devastating

mudslidetook 500 lives away in Sierra Leone. Hence, people of this country faced health

issues like cholera and malaria. Climate risk report [ CITATION Eck18 \l 1033 ] also shows

that80 people died and 270000 people lost their homes for a major flood and storm in

Madagascar same year.

Poor countrieslike Bangladesh suffer most for climate change situations. It is located in the

tropical area. For that reason, natural disastersarea common scenario there. In an Action Aid

research report Bangladesh ranked fifth most vulnerable country to climate change and

hunger. According to the World Risk Index 2017, Bangladesh ranked sixth. There is avery

high chance (19.17%) of disasters.Bangladesh will be warmer than today by 0.5 to 0.2 degree

Celsius by the year 2030 which means“temperature is relatively higher during the monsoon

than during summer”.[ CITATION Mah \l 1033 ]By 2030, the best estimate projection is for

monsoon rainfall to increase by 10 to 15% and winter rainfall by 5 to 10% (kafiluddin, 2005).
Comprehensive disaster managementsystem of Bangladesh aims to reduce disaster risk.

Government and the United Nations Development Programme,UNDPissued funds to avoid

and fight during the disaster in both rural and urban areas through structural and

nonstructuralsettlements and awareness. The absence of stable and transparent institutions

those steps remain on paper. A research published on the IntechOpen website by C. Emdad

Haqueand M. Salim Uddin finds the real scenario of the disaster management system of

Bangladesh. It says There is a very limited culture of partnership in disastermanagement has

yet been established. The core reason is politicians and poor governance. The policymakers,

government agencies, and NGO’s know lessabout impacts of climate, disasters,

vulnerabilities and how to support in extreme situations.

1.3 Significant of the Study:

Bangladesh is known for its disaster management and framework. Bangladesh is the most

disaster prone country in South Asia. Bangladesh has its own disaster management BUREAU

from 1993.To achieve technical monitoring, capacity building it has it has a good number of

institutional structures. The ministry of food and disaster management takes control over all

the disaster agencies. A national disaster management policy will be formulated to define the

national perspective on disaster risk reduction and emergency management and to describe

the strategic framework and national principles of disaster management of Bangladesh.

Disaster management council has planned a national plan regarding climate changes and

disaster management .The main aim is to reduce vulnerability of the poor during disasters.

This plan has been developed with the government mission. Over the last three decades GOB
has donated 10 billion dollars to resilient the climatic condition and less vulnerable to natural

disaster.

Climate change affects human health in various way .The floods in Bangladesh in 2004 is a

good example of direct affect as it caused 800 deaths .The recent cyclone cidr affected 8.5

millions of people. 3500 people died in cidr. The impacts of climate change on Bangladesh

have significant implications for its economic development. There are many human

dimensions for climate change. Climate change affects our agriculture a lot. Bangladesh is an

agricultural country. It is very much dependent on its agricultural sector. Climate change

heavily affects it. Climate change affects our forests and biodiversity a lot.

Bangladesh has a diverse range of forest ecosystem including bamboo, fresh water swamp

forest and mangrove. Climate change has a detrimental effect on all of these.

1.4 Limitations of the study

During research on comprehensive disaster management approach in Bangladesh there’s few

limitation both on study and the approach has been noticed. Various investigations show that

on account of conventional considering community, bureaucratic disposition of government

authorities, shortage of assets and predominant socio-social standards and values, network

interest in a debacle the board was unrealistic to accomplish at wanted level.

The limitations on community participation is discussed bellow –

1. Old-aged considering appropriating help materials during debacle are existed among

the individuals of Bangladesh. A significant number of them believe that it is the duty

of government or potentially willful agencies to give all the offices to the fiasco
 casualties. In this manner, to present the hazard decrease culture and practices sets

aside some effort to supplant the longstanding relief culture[ CITATION Naz01 \l 1033 ].

2. Accessibility of money related assets is an imperative part of calamity the executives

program. Despite the fact that the Government of Bangladesh endorsed yearly

designation of US$ 12 million, it is far from adequate request in the profoundly

populated nation with various perils. Moreover, the national and local deliberate

organizations have absence of sufficient monetary assets to work network based

program. Due to shortage of assets the individuals couldn't fix fiasco safe house, street

or courses without anyone else.

3. Constraint of sanitation offices for ladies in open structures is another obstruction.

[ CITATION Rah \l 1033 ] to implementation of CBDM program. The calamity

influenced individuals frequently take cover at school, college or other scholastic

foundations when they don't get asylum at fiasco covers where sanitation facilities are

not accessible for ladies that dishearten them (ladies) to take cover in these places.

Therefore, absence of offices stays a test to successful usage of CBDM.

There is an evident need for more effective and accurate weather forecasting process and

mechanism in Bangladesh. Bangladesh authority has already been recognized it. The research

community and the other international institutes approves the need of more timely

forecasting. Tough regarding forecasting, there’s a number of issues still needs to be

addressed.
For agricultural sectors accurate seasonal weather forecasting is not available this should be

available to the researcher and the farmers to help them prepare for natural disasters such as

drought and floods.

For flood the lead time for forecasting is only 72 hours which is not enough for planners to

make a move or take any decisions. There’s also no report available on net regarding this to

improve the research. Long term forecasting might help o mitigate loss and damages.

WHO provides support and suggestions to the government and non-governmental health

sectors through its country office. BDRCS administrates CPP in cooperation with the DMB.

1.5 Organization of the study

This chapter is based on the basic terms and ideas that introduce us with geography. We all

should know the basics before learning the important topic or else we won’t be able to

understand them. As our topic is climate change and this is a mandatory part of geography,

this chapter helps us to get to know the core of climate change. There are two important parts

of geography, Physical geography and Human geography.

The scientific study of the natural features of the Earth's surface, especially in its current

aspects, including land formation, climate, currents and distribution of flora and fauna. It is

also called physiographic.

And human geography is the branch of geography dealing with how human activity affects or

is influenced by the earth's surface.So in climate change both the physical and human

geography took place we got to know from this chapter. We also learned about the

vulnerability of Bangladesh. There a climate calendar shows that flood occurs from May-

October with severe flooding during July to August period. So flood is already listed in
affects of climate change. Flash flood, draught, river bank erosion, cyclone, tornadoes and

cold wave has become very common in Bangladesh.

In physical geography some of the phenomena studies are – rocks and minerals, landforms,

soils, animal, plant, water atmosphere, environment, climate and weather. In human we also

see – population, settlements, economic activities, transportations, urban systems, human

migrations and social traditions. Holistic synthesis is the common major sub-disciplines of

human and physical geography.

Climate change is the biggest problem at the moment not just in Bangladesh but also in the

entire world. But it has specially become one of the biggest problems for Bangladesh as we

are suffering so much more than other countries for it. Lots of floods, cyclones, typhoons are

occurring almost every year and millions of people are losing houses and farming lands

because of it. So we should be very careful about the climate change and do everything

necessary to stop it from getting worse or else we will be in deep danger in recent future.

2.1 Study Areas:

Bangladesh is a land of river and almost more than 700 rivers that engage coastal area

covered with a suitable systematic way of behavior. Padma, Meghna, and Jamuna are the

main river which may fall into the Bay of Bengal. Basically, our studies area is fall into this

four-dimensional division:

 To study about the most significant natural disasters in Bangladesh.

 To find out the effects of these disasters on how can we manage or tackle or minimal

of these disasters.

 To study in details about the disaster ‘flood’ and its management.

  To study about the emergency response and disaster.

Bangladesh has 710 km long coastline with 200 Nautical Miles of an exclusive economic

zone inside the Bay of Bengal. Marine fisheries contribute 19.4% of the total fish production

of the country. Bay of Bengal has the most resource to do with an ocean based business or

Blue Economy. Rather we focus on Bay of Bengal our prime focus on specific disaster

management and what area we choose to find historical data through reach the vulnerability

rate of natural calamities. However, nowadays from the past experience beside the coastal

area and the Mangrove forest Sundarbans have exploited by the human nature and thus effect

directly on the mainland of southern and western part of Bangladesh heavily damaged.

Bangladesh suffers from different types of disasters such as floods, cyclones, storm surge,

river bank erosion, earthquake, drought, salinity intrusion, fire and tsunami.Coastal zone of

Bangladesh consists of 19 coastal districts that are Jessore, Narail, Gopalganj, Shariatpur,

Chandpur, Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirozpur, Jhalakati, Barguna, Barisal, Patuakhali,

Bhola, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong, and Cox's Bazar and these are the most

affected areas. These are the area that mostly affected during the time of natural hazard and

calamities.

2.2 Data sources of the study

Bangladesh is one of the greatest victims of climate change and is repeatedly being struck by

disasters associated with climatic events. For instance, about half of the population in

Bangladesh lives less than 5 meters above the mean sea level. It is predicted that Bangladesh

will lose 17 per cent of its land by 2050 due to flooding caused by climate change, and this

will trigger around 20 million climate refugees. Considering that 161 million people live

within areas with a population density of 1,240 people per sq. km. of land area and the risk
factors, Bangladesh is ranked as the world’s sixth most disaster prone country. Most notably,

the 1970 great Cyclone Bhola caused 300,000 casualties; Cyclone Sidr in 2007 caused 3,406

fatalities with 2.3 million households damaged; Cyclone Aila in 2009 caused 234 deaths; and

the 1998 flood submerged about two-thirds of Bangladesh. Although Bangladesh is ranked as

162 out of 199 countries listed by The World Bank (2014) in terms of producing CO2, the

impacts of climate change are catastrophic in Bangladesh. Some major climatic facts about

Bangladesh are as follows:

 Bangladesh will be among the most affected countries in South Asia by an expected

2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures in the next decades, with rising sea

levels and more extreme heat and more intense cyclones threatening food production,

livelihoods and infrastructure as well as slowing the reduction on poverty).

 Around 34 million people will be affected and 22,000 sq. km. land area will be

inundated by 150 cm of sea level rise that will occur in about 150 years or even).

 The extreme climatic events are responsible for migration and conflict in Bangladesh.

This migration would be enough to cause conflict in today’s tumultuous environment

in South Asia, add a few hundred million people to the mix, and it will be a ticking

time bomb).

In this article, Bangladesh is used as a case study. Bangladesh has been severely affected by

climate change in recent decades, and it represents centuries of deprivation as a result of

colonization, imposed war, economic repression and fragile governance that are considered

as the root causes of vulnerability). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration

(NASA) confirmed that the global level of CO2 has passed 400 parts per million (PPM) for

the first time (that is the point of no return) because of industrialization and fossil fuel

burning, whereas the safe level of CO 2 in the atmosphere is 350 PPM (NASA, 2013). This
will worsen the impacts of climate change in present world and generations to come; and

ultimately will trigger climate refugees. Therefore, it is high time to address these issues and

develop a framework for taking the responsibilities by the liable countries in a common

global platform.

Climate change alters habitats and disrupts ecosystems. Displacement due to climate change

is also common in other species including mammals, birds and amphibians. It was found that

about 3,000 species were forced to move for survival in response to climate change.

Similarly, humans are also subject to migration following the impacts of climate change that

have impacted on their livelihoods, homestead or family members. Interestingly, uprooted

mammals, birds, fish and amphibians due to climate change are free to relocate or move

anywhere, however humans are not.  Suggested five principles to address the climate refugee

problems:

1. planned relocation and resettlement;

2. resettlement instead of temporary asylum;

3. collective rights for local populations;

4. international assistance for domestic measures; and

5. International burden sharing.

There is also an urge to recognize climate refugees in international law and develop a

convention for them. In reality, the liable countries are mistreating climate refugees in the

absence of a formal recognition system

In contrast, the aim of this concept paper is to develop a method for taking responsibility of

climate refugees by the top climate polluting countries. In this article, climate refugees are

defined as “people who must leave their homes and communities because of the effects of
climate change and global warming”. This paper also takes into account the history of

oppression that made Bangladesh socio-economically vulnerable to tackle upcoming disasters

by hindering the preparation of emergency management plans and disaster risk reduction

(DRR) strategies.

1 .Who consumes the planet’s resources?

With increasing human activities, the consumption of resources and production of wastes are

increasing simultaneously. The ecological footprint helps to calculate human pressure on the

planet. The consumption pattern of the earth’s resources on a world map reveals that the

citizens from the most industrialized countries are consuming more, and the least developed

countries have less impact on the planet. The bio-capacity per person on earth is currently 1.7

global hectares, which should be equal to the world’s ecological footprint. Bangladeshi

citizens use almost 50 per cent less resources than the planet’s average. On the contrary, a

total of approximately 5.5 planets would be required to fulfil the Australian citizens’ resource

needs (Global Footprint Network, 2016). In other words, if everyone lived the lifestyle of an

average UK standard, then three additional planets would be needed. Hence, it has to be

asked – “How is it possible that the citizens of industrialized countries are surviving? Where

are they getting the additional resources from? Are they doing any harm to planet earth? Who

is going to suffer ultimately?”

2. Who causes climate change?

Over the past century, a sharp increase has been observed for the global average of combined

land and ocean surface temperature, greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (including CO 2,

methane and nitrous oxide) and for global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions mostly from the

burning of fossil fuels, cement and flaring. Some key points from the Fifth Assessment

Report of the IPCC are as follows:

  Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions

of GHGs are the highest in history (2000-2010) (p. 2).

 An increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and

an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events are evident in a number of

regions (e.g. all these events are already distinct in Bangladesh) (p. 7).

 Continued emissions of GHGs will cause further warming and it would cause

increasing likelihood of severe and irreversible impacts on people and ecosystems

(p.8). Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks (p.13).

 The global mean surface temperature change for the end of the twenty-first century

(2081-2100) is projected to likely exceed 1.5°C to 2°C, extreme precipitation events

over the wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent,

the global ocean will continue to warm and the sea level will continue to rise at the

rate of 8-16 mm/year (pp.60-62).

 About 70 per cent of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience significant

increase in sea level rise (p.62), and this applies to the coastlines of Bangladesh.

Despite a number of mitigation policies undertaken, it is clear that the negative impacts of

climate change are mounting alarmingly. It is mentioned “climate change can make some

hazards worse, for example, tropical cyclones seem to be decreasing in frequency but

increasing in intensity due to climate change). This kind of less frequent cyclone with higher

intensity has the greatest potential to initiate catastrophic disasters. It is also obvious that:

[…] coastal Bangladesh will be seriously affected by climate change over the next

decades, with elevated air and sea temperatures, sea-level rise and more intense cyclones all

threatening livelihoods and lives.

To tackle the negative impacts of climate change on local communities and vulnerable groups

(including the coastal communities, small island states, women, youth, indigenous people,

poor people, disabled and the elderly), the “Climate Justice” initiative brought some hope.

The climate justice concept with a formal framework first came into light at the United

Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development in Bali in June 2002.

3 Impacts of climate change in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world worst hit by climate change. Due to the

changes in rainfall and temperature pattern, hydro-meteorological disasters are becoming

more frequent in Bangladesh, e.g. cyclones, tidal surges, flooding, sea level rise, coastal and

riverbank erosion, ground and surface water scarcity, salinity intrusion, drought, heat stress

and rainfall induced landslides and flash flooding. The climate induced extreme weather

events and associated disasters are causing problems such as land soil degradation, loss of

crops and agricultural productivity, food insecurity, water borne diseases, threatening

livelihoods, gender inequality, stress on human health, human displacement and migration,

social instability, unemployment, poverty and ultimately triggering conflicts.

For example, hundreds of villages and several districts were severely affected by flooding in

Bangladesh in July 2016. The disastrous situation lasted for few months, and approximately 4

million people were stranded by floodwater, losing their houses and crops.. On the other

hand, the tropical cyclones and associated tidal surges are usual in the coastal region (with

approximately 580 km of coastline) of Bangladesh that has nearly 28 million people with an

average density of 853 people per sq. km. The magnitudes of increasing global warming are

causing serious problems to the coastal communities by triggering frequent tropical cyclones

and coastal area inundation. Almost every year, the coastal communities or the coastal rural

villages are washed out by cyclones. Most recently, monsoon rains have triggered flooding
across 19 districts (out of 64) in north-eastern Bangladesh and killed at least 120 people as of

21 August 2017. Hundreds of villages are now under water and at least 50 million people are

seriously affected. Again, deadly landslides triggered by torrential monsoon rains in south-

eastern Bangladesh are estimated to have claimed at least 160 lives in June 2017. This

landslide disaster occurred just two weeks after the Cyclone Mora killed 9 people and caused

significant damages in the coastal belt of Bangladesh. Thus, river flooding, flash flooding,

landslides, storm surges and cyclones devastate at least one-third of Bangladesh each year.

Climate change impacts have the potential to exacerbate this catastrophic hydro-

meteorological disaster scenario in Bangladesh.

It is estimated that around 6 million people were either seriously affected or displaced by the

climate-induced disasters in Bangladesh in recent years. The displaced population from the

disaster hit areas or the climate refugees were forced to leave their homes, migrate to urban

areas and end up living in slums that are highly exposed to other hazards like flooding and

water pollution The major cities in Bangladesh are getting bigger due to this excessive in-

migration and population pressure, and are expanding rapidly. This is causing unplanned

urbanization, degrading the natural vegetation and water bodies. The largest cities are now

highly vulnerable to urban life problems like water logging, flash flooding, encroachment of

floodplain areas, development of informal settlements, urban heat islands, urban landslides,

traffic jams, air and water pollution and scarcity of drinking water, even as the city dwellers

lack other city life facilities. All these problems are evident in Dhaka city, the capital of

Bangladesh. As a result, Dhaka was ranked as one of the worst livable cities in the world .

4. Rising from the ashes

The combination of 315 years of British enslavement and Pakistani Army Dictatorship left

the Bangladeshi people with nothing to fight the imposed poverty (In the last few decades,
Bangladesh has moved forward quite progressively. The country’s life expectancy at birth

has increased to 72 years in 2014 (82 years for Australia in 2014) from only 46 years, back in

1960. In Bangladesh, the gross enrolment at primary school, for both sexes, was only 55 per

cent in 1970, but that has increased to 112 per cent in 2011), surpassing most of the

developed countries (in Australia 106 per cent, and in the USA 100 per cent).

Over the past few decades, Bangladesh has also achieved remarkable progress in public

health and the empowerment of women. According to Amartya Sen:

it is important to understand how a country that was extremely poor a few decades

ago, and is still very poor, can make such remarkable accomplishments particularly in

the field of health, but also in social transformation in general

5. Combating climate change

The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) was held in Paris, France from 30

November to 12 December 2015. At COP21, parties to the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) reached a historic agreement to address the climate

change issues. The agreement highlights in keeping the rise in global temperature below 2°C

(even though this rise in temperature could potentially inundate the coastal region of

Bangladesh), taking action plans to reduce GHGs, raising US$100bn (in loans and donations)

each year from 2020 to finance projects that enable vulnerable countries to adapt with the

impacts of climate change (such as a rise in sea level or droughts), establishing an obligation

for the industrialized countries to fund through the climate finance for the victim countries

and finally this agreement will enter into force once it is ratified by the 55 countries,

representing at least 55 per cent of emissions (UNFCC, 2016). Most importantly, on 3

September 2016, the USA and China, together responsible for 40 per cent of the world’s

carbon emissions, both formally joined the agreement. The Paris Agreement came into force
on 4 November 2016, and as of 21 August 2017 160 parties out of 197 have ratified the

convention. Unfortunately, on June 1, 2017 the USA announced that it would cease all

participation in the 2015 Paris Agreement. It proves the progress towards a global consensus

to combat climate change is under serious threats. The future is lying ultimately on how the

parties will deal with the issues like international political strategies, carbon emissions cut,

climate finance, addressing the climate refugees and helping the affected countries For

instance, on 18 January 2016, Oxfam Great Britain published a briefing paper titled – “An

Economy for the 1 per cent” that calculated:

 Just 62 individuals (down from 388 individuals in 2010) had the same wealth as the

bottom half of humanity.

 Since 2010, the wealth of the richest 62 people has increased by 45 per cent; and the

wealth of the bottom half dropped by 38 per cent.

This squeezing trend of global economy is horrifying, and it indicates that the rich are getting

richer and poor are becoming poorer; and the world’s net wealth is being concentrated.

Professor Muhammad Yunus had pointed out this problem and asked for a review of the

world’s current economic system. This is an example of how the current global economic

system can make other countries economically vulnerable. In addition to this, over

exploitation of resources and, thus, emissions of CO2 by the industrialized countries trigger

climate change. The IPCC as part of its future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and

sustainable development has clearly signposted that, “adaptation can reduce the risks of

climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with greater

magnitudes and rates of climate change, p. 79). This scenario applies to Bangladesh, and the

county is now seeing an overwhelming increase in the number of climate refugees than

previously recorded. It is becoming impossible for the climate victims to return to their
normal livelihoods in the disaster affected area). The biggest challenges in the upcoming

years to combat climate change and implement effective initiatives like the COP21 agreement

include the global monopoly of the economic system, and the negligence by a major portion

of politicians and corporations depicts how Bangladesh (a victim country for an example)

became socio-economically vulnerable after centuries of inflicted wars and tyranny by the

developed world, and how Bangladesh is now facing discriminating problems because of the

climate-change-induced extreme events that are externally being triggered by the same

developed world. This vicious cycle of oppression, disaster and poverty is hindering the

overall sustainable development and DRR progress in Bangladesh.

6. Addressing climate refugees and climate migration

It is projected that over the next 40 years (from 2011 to 2050), around 16 to 26 million people

are likely to migrate long-term from areas affected by inland flooding, storm surges and

riverbank erosion in Bangladesh. Among them, a significant portion would migrate solely

due to climate change, and the remaining, due to the current context of climatic disasters,

economic needs and population growth.Traditionally, migration is treated with fear, but the

Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) at University of Dhaka has

suggested that migration should be considered one of the climate change adaptation

techniques

Recent estimates suggest that by 2050, one in every 45 people in the world and one in every 7

people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change In the context of Bangladesh,

climate refugees are those who have lost their homestead, arable land or livelihoods in the

rural settings after extreme climatic disasters.. In 2015, the Government of Bangladesh

developed a “National Strategy on the Management of Disaster and Climate-Induced Internal

Displacement (NSMDCIID)” to address the multiple human rights challenges faced by the
migrating people in the aftermath of climatic disasters This is a great achievement in terms of

recognizing the climate refugees and climate migration in Bangladesh, although it only

concentrates on internally displaced or migrated population caused by climatic hazards. This

should be considered the first milestone, but there is still a need to develop such formal

strategies through international consensus to share the burden and responsibilities of climate

refugees by the top climate polluting countries.

3.1 Previous scenarios or condition

Speculation on the future has been a constant in human history, embedded in mythology,

religion, social versions and literature. Since the 1970s, scenario explorations have brought

the problem of the environment and development to the forefront of political attention. Early

work included mathematical simulation models (Meadows et al., 1972; Herrera et al., 1976;

Mesarovicand Pestel, 1974), qualitative exercises. Input-output analysis (Leontieff, 1976) and

eclectic approaches (Barney, 1980).Reviews and critiques of global assessments introduced

fresh insight (University of Sussex, 1973; Meadows et al., 1982)

More recently, a second wave of global scenario studies have included narrative scans of

alternative futures(Burrows et al.,1991;Milbrath,1989),an optimistic analysis by the Dutch

Central Planning Bureau(1992),the pessimistic analysis by Kaplan(1994),a consideration of

surprising futures and the United Nations Global Outlook (United Nation, 1990).The climate

change issue gave rise to numerous model based world energy scenarios, most importantly,

those of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change(IPCC,1992),which generally remain

within conventional notions of long-range development. In addition, authors have revisited

first-wave studies and affirmed by their essential findings despite intense and sometimes

rancorous criticism in the interim (Barney et al., 1993; Meadows et al., 1992).
3.2 Compare with other countries and Global perspective

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have

shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted

and trees are flowering sooner. Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result

from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and

longer, more intense heat waves.Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will

continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human

activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more

than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise

of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century (The Effects of Climate Change).

Mainstreaming disaster risk management into development planning can reverse the current

trend of rising disaster impact. Furthermore, when countries rebuild stronger, faster and more

inclusively after disasters, they can reduce the impact on people’s livelihoods and well-being

by as much as 31%, potentially cutting global average losses.If countries act decisively, they

can save lives and assets. However, many developing countries lack the tools, expertise, and

instruments to factor the potential impacts of disasters into their investment decisions

(Disaster Risk Management, 2019).

Bangladesh is a disaster-prone country of an area of about 147,570 sq. km. with population

nearing 180 million. The country is well within the tropics and is the largest delta in the

world formed by the mighty rivers namely the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna.

Bangladesh has special geographical feature. It has the Himalayan range to the north. The

Bay of Bengal to the south with its funneling towards Meghna estuary and the vast stretch of

Indian land to the west. The combined effects of the role played by this special geographical

features have significant bearing on weather system of Bangladesh. The weather system are
not always favorable. Due to this weather system, Bangladesh becomes the worst victim.

Major disasters that occur in Bangladesh are: tropical cyclone, tidal bore, flood, tornado, river

bank erosion, earthquake etc. A large number of poor people are to live in vulnerable areas of

the southern part of Bangladesh. The adverse impacts of all the natural hazards affecting

socio-economic condition need to be reduced for sustainable development. Realization of this

reality, the Government of Bangladesh has undertaken a lot of plans and programs for

disaster reduction through disaster management (Disaster Management in Bangladesh).

The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters publishes an Annual Disaster

Review to provide valuable information on the occurrence of natural disasters and their

impacts on society. They told in 2014 that China, the United States, the Philippines,

Indonesia, and India as the five countries most frequently hit by natural disasters. For years

now these same countries have regularly featured at the top of this annual list (Jonathan,

2015).

Natural Disaster Risk Management in India: For two consecutive years, the south Indian

State of Kerala has experienced heavy flooding which has affected one sixth of its population

—about5.6 million people. The disaster also dealt a significant financial blow as it washed

away nearly 2.6 per cent of the state’s gross domestic product.Between 1 June and 19 August

2018, Kerala received abnormally high rainfall, about 42 per cent above normal, resulting in

the worst-ever floods since 1924, which affected almost 5.4 million people.After the 2018

floods, the Kerala State government initiated the Rebuild Kerala Development Program to

not only rebuild areas impacted by the flood but also to build a more resilient, green,

inclusive and vibrant Kerala State.In India, its focus is on developing capacity to undertake

ecosystem restoration as part of the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guaranteed

Scheme, a nation-wide program, which employs 2.6 million women in Kerala. This will be
implemented in partnership with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority and the

Kerala Institute of Local Administration. (Promoting livelihoods through nature- based

disaster risk reduction in India, 2019).

Natural Disaster Risk Management in Indonesia: Natural disasters are events that friendly

to Indonesia. Every year natural disasters come in turns ranging from earthquakes, volcanoes,

tsunamis, floods, tornado, landslides, forest fires, social conflicts and so on and covering the

entire territory of Indonesia. To deal with these disasters, the Government of Indonesia has

developed community-based disaster management (CBDM).Between 1815 and 2014 (200

years ) there was 13.172 times disaster happened and killed 291.427 people. The Community

Based Disaster Management in Indonesia is implemented to institutionalize this effort, it has

been developed disaster organization by local conditions; increase public knowledge and

awareness and maintain the possibility of catastrophe caused by human (Community based

disaster management: Indonesian experience, 2019).

After 2004, Indonesia and the rest of the world recognized that development without

environmental considerations was simply impractical and even hazardous. Furthermore, there

was an increased demand for solutions to Indonesia’s environmental problems that focused

on prevention and risk reduction in conjunction to post-disaster response. This led to the

adoption of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations

and Communities to Disasters and then the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

2015-2030. Budget becomes an issue when the consequences of natural disasters cost over

20% of the municipal budget and the additional costs cannot be covered by the provincial

government. In the case of the Aceh tsunami in 2004, the disaster occurred at the end of the

fiscal year which meant that the following year’s budget had already been approved, resulting

in aid being delayed (Deserter Risk Reduction and Management in Indonesia, 2019).
Natural Disaster Risk Management in Philippian: The Philippines by virtue of its

geographic circumstances is highly prone to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic

eruptions, tropical cyclones and floods, making it one of the most disaster prone countries in

the world. The Philippine institutional arrangements and disaster management systems tend

to rely on a response, or reactive approach, in contrast to a more effective proactive approach,

in which disasters are avoided, by appropriate land-use planning, construction and other pre-

event measures which avoid the creation of disaster-prone conditions. To evolve to a more

proactive role, it is important that a national framework for comprehensive disaster risk

management be prepared and implemented. The framework should incorporate the essential

steps of integrated risk management, which include risk identification, risk reduction, and

risk sharing/financing the Government and individual households bear the majority of costs

caused by natural disasters. More effective options for financing disaster risk, and relieving

the burden of disasters from the public sector should be explored, including the idea of a

catastrophe insurance pool, and/or contingent credit facilities. Also found was that, despite

the high hazard risk in the Philippines, the insurance coverage for residential dwellings'

catastrophes is almost non-existent.

Natural disaster risk management in United States: The United States is extremely

vulnerable to natural disasters. Every state is exposed to one or more of a host of hazards:

earthquakes, droughts, floods, hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanoes, and

wildfires. As Hurricane Hugo demonstrated in 1989, natural disasters can undo years of

development and devastate natural resources in minutes or hours. The Committee proposes

an integrated, multidisciplinary program for the nation to reduce the impacts of natural

hazards. Key elements of the Decade program include hazard and risk assessments;

awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response, recovery, and

reconstruction; prediction and dissemination of warnings; strategies for learning from

disasters; and international cooperation. Collectively, they can save lives and limit losses,

making the United States and the world a safer place now and for future generations.The

Decade's progress, therefore, should be judged in the short term by using surrogate measures

— for example, the number of state and local jurisdictions that improve their hazard and risk

assessments, train response teams, develop and exercise emergency response and recovery

plans, or take steps to strengthen building codes or their enforcement; documented changes in

the awareness and actions of such groups as the media, health workers, architects, engineers,

policy makers, and the public; qualitative and quantitative changes in efforts to transfer

technology and enhance professional skills through conferences and workshops; and the

number of new bilateral and multilateral projects (The US Decade for Natural Disaster

Reduction, 1991).

Natural disaster risk management in China: Floods, droughts, earthquakes, and typhoons

continue to pose serious threats to life and property across China. The 2008 earthquake that

struck Sichuan province, for example, killed at least 69,000 people, injured hundreds of

thousands, and left 15 million homeless. From 2006 to 2011, The Asia Foundation worked

with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MOCA), local Departments of Civil Affairs, Chinese and

American business associations, and Chinese charity organizations team prove disaster

management through increased public-private partnerships. By the end of 2012, there were

over 1,200 such communities around China, and the central government aims to develop a

total of 5,000 by the end of 2015. In the wake of this project, Ministry of Civil Affairs also

issued Regulations on the Relief of Natural Disasters, whichencourages village committees,

community centers, businesses, NGOs, and the public to assist in natural disaster relief

efforts. As China develops the capacity of its disastermanagement system at home, it is also

assistingother countries to do the same (Disaster Management in China).

Natural Disaster Risk Management in Bangladesh: A large number of poor people are to

live invulnerable areas of the southern part of Bangladesh. The vulnerability is so miserable

that they have to go and settle in the newly accreted land in Bay of Bengal and its

surrounding areas which is occasionally hit by tidal bore or devastating cyclone. The adverse

impacts of all the natural hazards affecting socio-economic condition need to be reduced for

sustainable development. On realization of this reality, the Government of Bangladesh has

undertaken a lot of plans and programs for disaster reduction through disaster management.

The Government of Bangladesh initiated a project "Support to Comprehensive Disaster

Management" in 1993 with overall goal to reduce the human, economic and environmental

costs of disaster in Bangladesh. One of the main elements for the development objective of

the project was to increase the capacities of the households and local communities in the

highly disaster prone areas through establishment of Local Disaster Action Plans (LDAPs) to

cope with cyclones, floods and other potentially disaster situations. The project has been

completed on 30 June, 2001, making scope for the formulation of Comprehensive Disaster

Management Program (CDMP) for more holistic approach to risk management with support

from development partners and international agencies.

The high powered National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) and In-Ministerial

Disaster Management Co-ordination Committee (IMDMCC), developed as effective bodies

to promote and coordinate risk-reduction, preparedness activities and mitigation measures,

meet twice and four times a year respectively. While NDMC formulates and reviews disaster

management policies and issues directives to all concerned, the IMDMCC plays key role in

implementing the directives maintaining inter-Ministerial coordination, supervising the

services of the Armed Forces as well as NGOs working in the field of disaster management in

the country. Under the mechanism there exists a well-established organization named

Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation (DRR) within the administrative control of the
MDMR wherein Emergency Operation Center (EOC) is located. The MDMR has a small

dynamic professional unit known as Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) to perform

specialist functions and ensure coordination with line departments/agencies and NGOs by

convening meetings of Disaster Management Training and Public Awareness Building Task

Force (DMTATF), Focal Point Operational Co-ordination Group on Disaster Management

(FPOCG), NGO Co-ordination Committee on Disaster Management (NGOCC) and

Committee for Speedy Dissemination of Disaster Related Warning Signals (CSDDWS) every

three months regularly (Disaster Management in Bangladesh, 2003).

According to other countries in the world Bangladesh is one of the disaster prone countries of

the world, with extremely limited resources, its real development is not possible without the

integration of disaster mitigation programs like other countries. Governments planning is

therefore diverted towards disaster management as a major consideration in regional

development planning. Bangladesh is striving hard to establish an elaborate and experienced

disaster management system from national down to community level to mitigate the effects

of disasters. Being aware of the limitations and the vulnerability of the country to natural

disaster, the Government has been making continuous efforts to make Bangladesh a part of

safer world in the 21st century and seek help of development partners. Our country is not that

much undated but our Government is trying hard to protect our country.

3.3. Future Scenarios and Our Concern

Bangladesh is one of the world’s most vulnerable nations, which will become even more

vulnerable due to climate change. According to Global Climate Risk Index 2020, Bangladesh

is the 7th most climate-affected nation in the world. Nearly every year Bangladesh encounters

different forms of natural disasters due to climate change. Due to its geographical location,
flat and low lying landscapes, population density, poverty, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to

natural disaster. As global temperature and sea level is rising, low lying coastal cities are

already experiencing catastrophic flooding. According to New York Times, Bangladesh 0.3

percent of the pollution related to climate change but the country is facing some of the

biggest consequences of rising sea level. By 2050, Oceans could flood 17% of the land of

Bangladesh and displace approximately 18 million of its residents.[ CITATION Tal19 \l 1033 ]

Because of the global warming the ice is melting in the Himalayas. So by the end of this

century, sea levels are likely to rise up to 1.5m along the coastline of Bangladesh which will

come with more seasonal fluctuation in sea level. Today, catastrophic hurricanes and

exceptionally high tides occur once a decade but by 2100 it could become as normal as three

to fifteen times a year. [CITATION Par19 \l 1033 ]

Almost 80% area of Bangladesh consists primarily of Floodplains which is making prone to

flooding during the rainy reason. In addition, the adverse effects of climate change will be –

Rising temperature, sea level rise, salinity intrusion, cyclone, storm surges, drought, heavy

monsoon downpours etc.[ CITATION Ann12 \l 1033 ]

From above picture we can see the 2018’s data about impacts of climate change of

Bangladesh. From this picture we can predict that if this situation goes on then how much

climate change will affect Bangladesh in future. Climate change can affect various sectors of

Bangladesh.

Impactful sectors of Bangladesh can be:

 Forestry/Biodiversity: Bangladesh has a wide variety of habitats including

Mangrove Forests on the country’s extreme south. The “Sundarbans” a World

Heritage is the biggest Mangrove forest in the world, which comprising 577,00ha of

land along the Bay of Bengal. A total of 425 species have been identified have been
 identified over there and the most glaring is the famous Royal Bengal Tiger.

According to climate model Projection, it is obvious that the Sundarbans region will

face a temperature rise of 2 – 3 degree Celsius during the 2050s. Therefore, climate

change affects will have negative consequences on the ecosystem of the forest

resources in Bangladesh while the Sundarbans is possibly to suffer the most.

[ CITATION MdR17 \l 1033 ]

 Urban Areas: There were four cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in 2016 which are –

Rauna, Kyant, Nada and Vardah, whereas normally there is only one of. Riverbank

erosion is the number one cause of inland climate displacement. Up to 50% of those

who are now living in urban slums in Bangladesh may be there because they were

pressured to escape their rural homes due to riverbank erosion. [ CITATION Cli \l 1033 ] .

Specific impacts can occur during severe events due to increased flooding, drainage

congestion and water longing as well as damage to infrastructure. Urban

infrastructure, Industry, Trade, Commerce and Utility services are the main urban

sectors that may suffer significantly from previous floods in here. As a result, it may

disrupt the normal productivity during major flood. [ CITATION Ann12 \l 1033 ]

 Coastal Areas: Nearly one fourth of the country’s total population lives in

Bangladesh’s coastal areas, where majority of the population is somehow directly or

indirectly affected by Coastal floods or tidal surges, river bank flooding salinity

cyclones etc. In fact, with the rise of sea level to a mere 1 meter, Bangladesh could

lose up to 15% of its land area under the sea and about 30 million people living in

Bangladesh’s coastal area will become refugees due to global climate change.

However, most of the country’s part is less than 10 meter above than sea level and

approximately 10% of this country’s population lives below 1 meter elevation, so the

entire coastal area is extremely vulnerable to high tides and storm surges. In addition,
 the Bay of Bengal is located at the tip of the northern Indian Ocean, where extreme

cyclonic storms and long tidal waves are frequently produced and have extreme

impacts due to the Shallow and Conical shape of the Bay near Bangladesh.

 Displacement: As rainfall pattern change, Bangladesh’s drier north-western regions

are at risk of drought, which drives people away through destruction of crops and

disruption of livelihood. Currently there does not have any major factor in

displacement, this risk is expected to increase as climate change progresses.

Landslides, which are also caused by way of an increasing number of erratic rainfall,

affect Bangladesh’s hilly north-eastern and south eastern regions and can cause

displacement by damaging homes, property and disrupting farming.

 Water Resources and Hydrology: The outcome of climate change on the surface

and ground water sources may be very extreme and alarming as Bangladesh is an over

populated country. Changes in water resources and hydrology will have a significant

impact on the economy of the country, where people are mostly depend on the surface

water for irrigation, fishing, industrial production, navigation and other similar

activities.

 Agriculture and Fisheries: Bangladesh’s economy is a primarily based on

agricultural activities as two third of the population directly or indirectly is engaged

on Agricultural activities. Beside extreme temperature and drought, salinity intrusion

in the coastal area may create serious implication for the coastal land that has

historically been used to grow rice. Whereas, the fisheries sectors contributes around

3.5% of Bangladesh’s GDP and also people of here rely on fish products to meet most

of their daily Protein needs. If the climate changes drastically then it may create an

adverse impact on fisheries sector.

Conclusion

Climate change is now affecting every country on every continent. It is disrupting national

economies and affecting lives, costing people, communities and countries dearly today and

even more tomorrow. Weather patterns are changing, sea levels are rising, weather events are

becoming more extreme and greenhouse gas emissions are now at their highest levels in

history. Without action, the world’s average surface temperature is likely to surpass 3 degrees

centigrade this century. The poorest and most vulnerable people are being affected the most.

Affordable, scalable solutions are now available to enable countries to leapfrog to cleaner,

more resilient economies. The pace of change is quickening as more people are turning to

renewable energy and a range of other measures that will reduce emissions and increase

adaptation efforts. Climate change, however, is a global challenge that does not respect

national borders. It is an issue that requires solutions that need to be coordinated at the

international level to help developing countries move toward a low-carbon economy. As

decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute

through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate

change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international

levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to

transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Climate

change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for--

and in many cases is already affecting--a broad range of human and natural systems. The

compelling case for these conclusions is provided in many studies, part of a congressionally

requested suite of studies actually. While noting that there is always more to learn and that

the scientific process is never closed, many researches shows that hypotheses about climate

change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious

debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

Recommendation

 To focus not only on improving understanding, but helps to inform solutions for

problems at local, regional, national, and global levels;

 To integrate diverse kinds of knowledge and explicitly engages the social, ecological,

physical, health, and engineering sciences;

 Emphasizing coupled human-environment systems rather than individual human or

environmental systems in isolation;

 Evaluating the implications of particular choices across sectors and scales so as to

maximize co-benefits, avoid unintended consequences, and understand net effects

across different areas of decision making;

 Developing and employs decision-support resources and tools that make scientific

knowledge useful and accessible to decision makers;

 Focusing, where appropriate, on place-based analyses to support decision making in

specific locations or regions, because the dynamics of both human and environmental

systems play out in different ways in different places and decisions must be context-

specific; and

By supporting adaptive decision making and risk management in the face of inevitable

uncertainty by remaining flexible and adaptive and regularly assessing and updating research

priorities.

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