LI BUSINESS
DOW JONES
220.75 to 28,132.05
Over the past year:
29,000
21,000
CRUDE OIL
$0.42 to $59.18
Over the past year:
$67
$42
TRADE-DEAL OPTIMISM
DRIVES MARKETS UP
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq
closed at all-time highs Thurs-
day on renewed optimism that
the United States and China are
close to reaching a deal in their
costly trade war.
Financial, technology and
health care stocks powered
much of the rally.
The market has been quick to
react to headlines and remarks
out of the Trump administration
about the 16-month trade war,
and Thursday was no different.
Shares jumped in the early
going after President Donald
Trump said the United States is
getting close to a “big deal” with
China. Traders were also encour-
aged by a Wall Street Journal re-
port saying Washington has of-
fered to slash existing tariffs and
cancel new ones set to kick in on
Sunday in exchange for more
agricultural purchases and intel-
lectual property protection.
“If we do see the tariffs re-
moved, that’s saying, ‘OK, China
must be agreeing to things or we
must be right there,’ ” said Ben
Phillips, chief investment officer
at EventShares. “That’s why the
market is looking at tariffs as the
bellwether to a trade deal.”
The S&P 500 climbed 26.94
points, or 0.9%, to 3,168.57. The
index is up about 0.5% from its
last all-time closing high on
Nov. 27. The Dow rose 220.75,
or 0.8%, to 28,132.05. The Nas-
daq gained 63.27 points, or
0.7%, to 8,717.32. — AP
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newsday.com/biz
Suffolk GDP surges
Backed by 2018 gain,
county’seconomy
edgespastNassau’s
forthefirsttime
BY JAMES T. MADORE
james.madore@newsday.com
Suffolk County’s economy is
slightly larger than that of Nas-
sau County for the first time,
according to data released on
Thursday.
Suffolk’s gross domestic
product, the sum of all goods
and services produced in the
county, totaled $81.21 billion in
2018, the federal Bureau of Eco-
nomic Analysis reported. Nas-
sau’s GDP totaled $81.19 billion
in 2018.
It’s only the second time the
bureau has released county-
level GDP figures and the first
time that the data stretches back
to 2001. The figures are adjusted
for inflation, according to bu-
reau spokesman Thomas Dail.
National GDP totaled $18.6
trillion in 2018; GDP for the
New York metro area was $1.5
trillion, according to the bureau.
Experts said one of the rea-
sons that Suffolk moved ahead
of Nassau in terms of size of
economy is that Nassau’s GDP
contracted 0.1% between 2017
and 2018 while Suffolk’s GDP ex-
Economists see U.S. slowing but avoiding recession
The Associated Press
The nation’s business econo-
mists expect U.S. economic
growth to decelerate this year
and next but for the economy
to avoid stumbling into reces-
sion, extending a record-break-
ing expansion already in its
11th year.
AP / MARK LENNIHAN
The latest survey by 53 fore-
casters with the National Associ-
ation for Business Economics
shows that they expect eco-
nomic growth to slow from 2.9%
last year to 2.3% in 2019 and 1.8%
in 2020. The forecasts are un-
changed from the association’s
previous survey in October.
The economists put the odds
of a recession starting at 5% this
year, 21% in the first half of 2020
and 43% by the end of next year.
However, they peg the odds of
a recession by mid-2021 at 66%.
$80
$71.7
$70
Nassau
$62.9
Suffolk
Figures in billions, rounded
$60 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
panded 0.1% in the same period.
Richard Vogel, an economist
and dean of Farmingdale State
College’s business school, said
“a minor shift in population”
from one county to the other
in the past two years may have
given Suffolk the edge over
Nassau.
He said there may be “some
cost and regulatory differ-
ences for licenses, real estate
and other aspects of doing
business” that favor Suffolk.
Nassau saw declines in
durable-goods manufacturing,
finance/insurance, govern-
ment and lodging/food service
sectors between 2017 and 2018,
the data show.
Since 2001, Nassau’s econ-
omy has contracted year over
year on six occasions. Suffolk’s
economy has contracted three
Work continues at 30 Hudson Yards in Manhattan. The economic expansion is in its 11th year.
The American economy is
likely to remain resilient this
year and next, they say, despite
risks arising from President
Donald Trump’s trade war with
China and skirmishes with
other U.S. trading partners: Half
A29
$82.5 $81.21
$81.19
$78.0
Long Island’s economy
Gross domestic product is the sum of
all goods and services produced in a
municipality. Data here detail annual
GDP in Nassau and Suffolk counties.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
times in the same period.
Suffolk is geographically
larger than Nassau, has a bigger
population, and is home to
much of the region’s manufac-
turing and construction activity.
Among New York State’s
counties, Suffolk ranked No. 4
behind Manhattan, Queens
and Brooklyn in terms of size
of economy. Nassau was No. 5.
Both Long Island counties
had slower economic growth
than the state and metropoli-
tan area. State GDP rose 1.2%
between 2017 and 2018 while
metro area GDP was up 1.6%.
Still, that’s not a cause for
concern, said John Rizzo,
chief economist for the Long
Island Association business
group and a Stony Brook Uni-
versity professor.
“We’re at full employment;
the respondents call trade ten-
sions the No. 1 downside eco-
nomic risk through the end of
next year.
The Trump administration
has slapped tariffs on $360 bil-
lion in Chinese imports and is
LI BUSINESS
the unemployment rate has
been below 4% since April
2018,” he said on Thursday. “The
economy is performing at capac-
ity, it’s hard to do better than
we’re doing. I’m not worried
about the data released today.”
The new data show that the
private sector is bigger in Nas-
sau, accounting for $72 billion in
economic activity last year, com-
pared with $69 billion in Suffolk.
Both counties saw an expan-
sion of the health care and pro-
fessional services sectors be-
tween 2017 and 2018. The gov-
ernment, finance/insurance
and lodging/food service sec-
tors contracted in both coun-
ties, year over year.
Nassau GDP totaled $71.7 bil-
lion in 2001 and added $9.5 bil-
lion in the subsequent 18 years.
Suffolk GDP totaled $62.8 bil-
lion in 2001 and added $18.4 bil-
lion in the same period.
Vogel, the Farmingdale State
economist, said Thursday that
2019 GDP may be impacted by
the 2018 federal government
shutdown and 2017 federal tax
law changes, which capped at
$10,000 deductions of state
and local taxes on federal in-
come tax returns.
“There had been concerns
throughout the past two years
of a possible [economic] slow-
down,” he said. “Also, the Fed
raised interest rates in 2018 and
Long Island may have been sen-
sitive to those rate increases.”
newsday.com
NEWSDAY, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2019
scheduled to hit another $160
billion Dec. 15. China has retali-
ated by targeting $120 billion
worth of American products.
The economists expect
American consumers to con-
tinue driving the economy.