BU PhD STUDENTSHIPS 2017

PROJECT DESCRIPTION
PROJECT DETAILS

Project Title

An econometric analysis of changing dietary trends and its implications for health around the world.

Project Summary
The aim of this PhD is to analyse global dietary trends using advanced econometric and statistical methods to
enable policy-makers to prevent unhealthy diets taking hold in vulnerable countries of the world. As underlined by
Bleich et al. (2015), the relationship between food and health is complex since everyone needs food to live, but a
poor diet (in terms of either quantity or quality) can lead to negative consequences on health. Over the years we
have witnessed a “nutrition transition” (Popkin, 1993) induced by both industrialization and globalization.
Industrialization has led to changes in food production, distribution and trade, while globalization has accelerated
the abandonment of local and traditional foods in favour of foods and habits from around the world, characterised by
non-traditional, international branding and fast food (Belasco, 2008; Hawkes, 2006). These two driving forces have
led to a change from traditional to modern dietary patterns, i.e. from a cereals-oriented diet to a high-calorie,
nutrient-poor diet high in fats and sweeteners. However, Popkin (1993) suggested that countries adopting modern
diets have incentives to move toward a healthy diet owing to the growing socio-economic burden of obesity, diet-
related chronic diseases, and of non-communicable diseases in general (Ezzati & Riboli, 2013; World Health
Organization, 2011). Therefore, understanding the relationship between diet and health and understanding the
socio-economic factors influencing the transition from the traditional to the modern diet, and the possible transition
to a healthier diet, become crucial public health objectives.

To increase understanding of the relationship between diet and health, this research will adapt state-of-the-art
statistical and econometric methods to analyse trends and similarities in diet among countries. By doing so, the
research will identify countries whose consumption patterns are evolving in healthy/unhealthy ways, and hence
provide information pertinent to public policy so that poor diets (whether in rich or poor countries) can be averted
before the effects materialise. From a technical perspective, fuzzy clustering algorithms will be used to identify
groups of countries characterized by similar trends and dietary patterns over time. Several methods to detect
clusters have been developed in the recent data mining literature where it has been demonstrated that fuzzy
clustering is more robust and efficient than more traditional clustering techniques. Moreover, similarity among time
series can be detected in different ways accordingly to the different definitions given to this concept. A recent
approach consists of interpreting similarities among time series in terms of their co-movements (concordance) that
can be interpreted by copula functions. Therefore, adopting a Copula-based fuzzy clustering algorithm it will be
possible to identify a number of distinct dietary patterns in the world that reflect similarities among time series which
measure key aspect of diet (such as fat, sugar and calorific value). It will then be possible to label each dietary
cluster according to its healthiness. In the literature, different food indices have been developed to evaluate the
healthiness of a country’s diet but none of them has been shown to be the superior in all respects (Waijers et al.,
2007). Therefore, this research project will compared the results obtained from the use of a number of extant health
indices (including, the Healthy Eating Index, the Diet Quality Index, the Mediterranean Diet Score and the Healthy
Eating Indicator) to arrive at robust and authoritative conclusions. The association between socio-economic macro
factors (such as GDP, economic and cultural capital, migration, income, etc.) and the membership of a country to a
cluster (i.e. diet) will be evaluated through suitable econometric models. The data required to undertaken this
research is freely downloadable from international agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation
(FAOSTAT) and World Bank.

Academic Impact

The application of advanced statistical techniques to a highly detailed database of dietary intake is anticipated to
deliver novel and significant research findings that will be of substantive interest to researchers in a number of
interlocking fields, both within BU and internationally in the fields of economics, nutrition and health policy.
BU PhD Studentship Project Description
The immediate academic beneficiaries of the proposed research will be those working in the social and economic
analysis of food consumption and dietary aspects of health policy. In combination with its policy-relevant focus, it is
intended that the research will also make a methodological contribution that will benefit researchers in many other
fields. Application of these frontier methods to large and complex datasets is highly topical in academic circles, as is
the cross-cutting nature of the proposed research, with the result that there is a realistic expectation that its findings
will be attractive to scientific committees of major international conferences and editors of top journals in these
fields.
It is envisaged that the findings of this research will be disseminated through a variety of media, principally
academic publications in leading international (3* and 4*) journals with high impact factors (accessible through open
access where possible). Theoretical and methodological findings will be presented at leading international academic
conferences, such as The International Association of Agricultural Economics and the World Congress of Public
Health Nutrition. Key findings will be published online on BAFES (the working paper series of Accounting, Finance
and Economics Department) and sites such as the Research Gate.

Societal Impact

In the global action plan 2013-2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined specific actions for the
development or strengthening of food and nutrition policies and measures, and the implementation of
recommendations and strategies to monitor and control dietary intake all over the world. In line with the WHO plan,
the methodologies and findings of this research will help governments and policy makers 1) monitor dietary intake
and 2) adopt harmonised methodologies for nutrition surveillance across countries, encouraging the adoption of
common policies where similar trends dietary are identified.
In doing so, this project responds to the World Health Organization’s call for the adoption of national and
international surveillance systems on nutritional status to monitor and control dietary risk on the incidence of non-
communicable diseases. Therefore, this research will help governments to improve their knowledge on where they
are and where they are going in terms of dietary patterns in order to prevent and control unhealthy situations before
the socio-economic costs fully develop. As a result, the new knowledge created has the potential to inform policy
makers and improve the quality of evidence available to them. It will also resonate in the public debate on diet and
health that is taking place at all levels of civil society both nationally and internationally. Findings will be
disseminated to this wider audience through social networks (e.g. twitter) and outreach events such as the UK’s
Festival of Science the BU Festival of Learning.

Training Opportunities
The PhD student will gain knowledge and expertise in 1) the management, manipulation and use of large and
complex data sets, 2) the application of novel statistical and econometrics techniques and 3) in the use of suitable
software.

Training for this will be led by the student's supervisors and will include relevant courses offered by Bournemouth
University and other external short courses where necessary. Professor Lloyd is an internationally recognised
expert in food economics and has supervised over 20 students to completion. Dr. Marta Disegna has extensive
experience of programming languages and the management of large databases using R and STATA which will be
an additional source of training for the student.

It is anticipated that the student will present findings flowing from the research to academic, policy and public
audiences and thus gain valuable experience in the translation, presentation and communication of technical
research.

SUPERVISORY TEAM

First Supervisor Professor Tim Lloyd

Additional Supervisors Dr Marta Disegna

Recent publications by Davidson, J., Halunga, A., Lloyd, T.A., McCorriston, S. and Morgan, C.W. (2016)
supervisors relevant to this ‘World commodity prices and domestic retail food price inflation: Some insights
BU PhD Studentship Project Description
project from the UK inflation’ Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol 67(3), pp.566-584.
D’Urso, P., Disegna, M., Massari, R., Osti, L. (2016) “Fuzzy segmentation of
postmodern tourists”, Tourism Management, 55, 297-308.
D’Urso P., Disegna M., Durante F. (2015) “Copula-based fuzzy clustering of time
series”, 10th Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group
(CLADAG), editors: Francesco Mola, Claudio Conversano, pp. 65-68. CUEC
editrice, Cagliari. ISBN: 978-88-8467-749-9
D’Urso P., Disegna M., Massari R. (2015) “Dynamic time warping-based fuzzy
clustering for spatial time series”, 10th Scientific Meeting of the Classification
and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG), editors: Fran- cesco Mola, Claudio
Conversano, pp. 65-68. CUEC editrice, Cagliari. ISBN: 978-88-8467-749-9
Lloyd, T.A. (2017) ‘Presidential Address: Forty Years of Price Transmission
Research in the Food Industry: Insights, Challenges and Prospects’ Journal of
Agricultural Economics, doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12205.
Lloyd T.A. (2014) ‘Retail Food Prices: Insights from Supermarket Scanner Data’
Transactions of the Manchester Statistical Society 2012-13, pp. 31-46.

INFORMAL ENQUIRIES

To discuss this opportunity further, please contact Professor Tim Lloyd via email: tlloyd@bournemouth.ac.uk

ELIGBILITY CRITERIA

Studentship candidates must demonstrate outstanding academic potential with preferably a 1 st class honours
degree and/or a Master’s degree with distinction or equivalent Grade Point Average. An IELTS (Academic) score of
6.5 minimum (with a minimum 5.5 in each component) is essential for candidates for whom English is not their first
language. In addition to satisfying basic entry criteria, BU will look closely at the qualities, skills and background of
each candidate and what they can bring to their chosen research project in order to ensure successful completion.
Additional Eligibility
Applicants holding degrees in economics or statistics (or a similarly quantitative subject) are strongly encouraged to
apply. Preference will be given to those candiates who currently hold an MSc in a relevant discpline. Applicants
currently studying for a MSc are eligible to apply and must be available to commence the proposed project by it
official start date. Experience of Statistical software such as STATA and R will be beneficial.

HOW TO APPLY

Please complete the online application form by 12:00 GMT on Wednesday 10th May 2017. Further information on
the application process can be found at: www.bournemouth.ac.uk/studentships

BU PhD Studentship Project Description