2568 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting
Severe Weather Forecasting
D J Stensrud, H E Brooks and S J Weiss, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Norman, OK,
USA
Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Introduction
Severe weather is any type of violent or extreme
weather event that represents a hazard to public safety
and welfare. As such, the forecasting of severe weather
events is both an important endeavor and a difficult
one. It is important because the human and economic
costs of severe weather events can be very high,
involving injuries, lost lives, and significant pro-
perty damage. It is estimated that over 15 000 deaths
and billions of dollars in damage occur annually
around the world as a result of severe weather.
The increasing worldwide population and greater
dependence on complex technology-based infra-
structures suggests that our risk exposure is in-
creasing; and severe weather occurs on every continent
except Antarctica, so no country is completely safe.
Severe weather forecasting is difficult because severe
weather events often occur on very small scales
that are not well observed and the physical processes
that produce severe weather are not completely
understood. This combined lack of observational
detail and physical understanding is partially com-
pensated for by the presence of repeatable syno-
pticscale atmospheric features in many of these
events. Thus, the forecasting of severe weather is
based largely upon knowledge of climatology,
pattern recognition, and meteorological parameter
evaluation, in which the human forecaster plays the
crucial role.
In the United States, the country that arguably has
the largest severe weather threat, the term severe
weather is applied only to those events associated with
severe local thunderstorms, such as hail, lightning,
damaging surface winds, and tornadoes. In other
countries it is more common to include hurricanes,
flash flooding, fire weather, or winter storms in the
definition of severe weather, since these weather-
related events may most affect public welfare. Hurri-
canes, in particular, are a significant weather hazard,
but owing to their longer lifetimes and limited
geographic region of influence, they are not considered
here. The specific events that are covered under the
umbrella of severe weather forecasting are not as
important as the recognition that weather events
influence our daily lives and can be both a blessing
and a hazard. When they are a hazard, accurate
forecasts of these events can save lives and lessen the
economic disruption produced.
The primary mission of the Storm Prediction Center,
a national center within the US National Weather
Service, is to forecast severe weather events associated
with thunderstorms. This forecasting mission has been
part of the weather service since 1952 and is supported
because of the rarity of severe weather events in any
one locality and the recognition that these events cross
geopolitical boundaries. In some regions of the coun-
try a local weather forecaster may experience a
significant severe weather event once during her or
his career. This requires the forecaster to make all the
right decisions, based upon limited understanding and
limited observations, the very first time this magnitude
of threat is encountered. In contrast, a forecaster at a
center with national responsibility experiences signif-
icant severe weather events on many days each year.
Thus, the experience base upon which to guide
decisions grows rapidly and can be shared easily
with local forecasters and the general public through
modern communication networks. Countries of
smaller physical size than the United States may
benefit greatly from a multicountry severe weather
forecasting center.
In this article the process of forecasting severe
weather events prior to and during their development
is discussed. This is not the same process as nowcast-
ing, in which the present weather situation is moni-
tored and linear extrapolation is used to predict future
events as illustrated in Figure 1. The forecasting
process does not necessarily involve a longer time
scale, but nonlinear methods are used in the process.
Forecasts typically extend from 0 hours out to a day
or two. Since it is impossible for a human being
to visualize the evolving atmosphere over a period
this long, numerical weather prediction models
play a significant role in the forecasting process.
But one should never lose sight of the fact that
the human forecaster is what makes the process
successful.
Elements of Forecasting
The forecasting process typically begins by defining a
broad region of potential severe weather threat and
then refining this area of potential threat so that the
final forecast product is as specific as possible. This
forecasting process requires a knowledge of climatol-
ogy and incorporates the techniques of pattern recog-
nition and parameter evaluation. We assume that the
 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting 2569

at the most recent observational time, followed

100% by an analysis of numerical weather prediction
Total weather knowledge model data to help extend the forecast further into
the future.
Weather knowledge

Climatology
Linear

eteorology One of the first elements used in the forecasting of

e of m
ledg
extrap

o w e ls severe weather is knowledge of the climatologies of the

Kn l e mod various types of severe weather events. These cli-
ca els
olation

os od matologies increase the awareness of where severe

es
M le
ca
e -s
r g
La
0 1 234 56 9 12
Time (h)
Figure 1 Schematic of the utility of various techniques used in
weather forecasting as a function of time. (From Doswell CA III
(1986) Short-range forecasting. In: Ray P (ed.) Mesoscale Mete-
orology and Forecasting, pp. 689–719. American Meteorological
Society.)
forecaster has access to a standard suite of meteoro-
logical observations, including at a minimum data
from surface stations and upper-air soundings. Real-
time data from radars, satellite, radar wind pro-
filers, lightning detection systems, and aircraft are
also very useful. Observational data are typically
analyzed first, to develop a picture of the atmosphere
m
Climatology weather has occurred in the past, so that the forecaster
is prepared and is looking for indications of a severe
weather threat during these seasonal and/or diurnal
time periods. Comparison of the patterns of yearly
15 18 21 24 cycles of mean monthly tornado and 25.4 mm h 1
rainfall (which is used as a proxy for flash floods)
over the United States indicates that the regions of
highest probabilities for these events are different
(Figures 2 and 3). In addition, the frequencies are
different, with 25.4 mm h 1 rainfalls much more
common than a tornado within 40 km of a given
location. Knowledge of these patterns and their
differences helps forecasters better anticipate when
severe weather may be most likely. In addition, there
are days when the potential for severe weather is
high but the expected type of severe weather event
(e.g., tornadic supercell or damaging windstorm) is un-
clear. Climatological information can help determine
which event is most likely. However, the usefulness of

40 40
35 35
30 30
Days per century

Days per century

25 25
20 20
15 15

10 10

5 5

2 2
(A) (B)

40 40
35 35
30
Days per century
Days per century

30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
2 2
(C) (D)

Figure 2 Tornado days per century over the United States for the months of (A) January, (B) April, (C) July, and (D) October, illustrating
the seasonal cycle of tornadic activity. Fifteen years of data were used to create these analyses.
2570 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting

(A) (B)

H
L

(C) (D)

Figure 3 Isolines of 25.4 mm h 1 rainfall events per year over the United States for the months of (A) January, (B) April, (C) July, and (D)
October, illustrating the seasonal cycle of heavy rainfall. Isolines of 0.1, 0.2, 0.25, 0.33, 0.5, 0.66, and 0.75 events per year are shown.
Forty years of data were used to create these analyses. (From Brooks HE and Stensrud DJ (2000) Climatology of heavy rain events in the
United States from hourly precipitation data. Monthly Weather Review 128: 1198–1199.)

climatology is dependent on the robustness of the
climatological record, which depends to some extent
upon a public recognition of the severe weather threat.
Climatological analyses have become more sophis-
ticated over the years and are beginning to address the
variability in the timing and location of severe weather
events. Annual cycles of various severe weather events
are now being generated for specific locations. These
cycles highlight both the year-to-year reliability and
the year-to-year variability of the severe weather
threat (Figure 4). This information helps forecasters
to anticipate when severe weather is more likely, and
also helps them – to provide information to the public
about why an apparently unlikely event – such as a
tornado during the winter in the state of Mississippi –
is not really all that unlikely.

2.0 2.0
1980 _ 1984 1980 _ 1984
1985 _ 1989 1985 _ 1989
1990 _ 1994 1990 _ 1994
1995 _ 1999 1995 _ 1999
1.5
1.5
1980 _ 1999 1980 _ 1999
Probability (%)
Probability (%)

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0 0
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/112/31 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 12/31
(A) Date (B) Date

Figure 4 Probability (%) of a tornado within 40 km for (A) Lubbock, Texas, USA, and (B) Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA, plotted versus
day of the year (month/day). The probabilities were calculated using three different 5-year data sets, illustrating the robustness or the
variation of the threat. The black line is the mean probability for the complete 20-year period.
 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting 2571

Pattern Recognition phere in a three-dimensional perspective and can

Many repeatable atmospheric features have been
associated with severe weather events. These large-
scale atmospheric patterns are observed by our present
data networks and are used routinely by forecasters as
a first step to help assess the severe weather threat.
Composite charts, in which specific features found at
different pressure levels within the troposphere are
plotted on a single chart, are often used. These
presentations allow forecasters to view the atmos-
highlight the vertical relationships between synoptic
features and selected parameter fields considered
important for the type of event being forecast. Com-
posite charts plotted for typical tornadic thunder-
storm, derecho (damaging windstorm), and flash flood
days illustrate that the synoptic and mesoscale features
associated with these events are different, although
there also are some similarities (Figure 5). Individual
events do not always contain all of the features seen in
these composite analyses, but a number of these

L ULJ

Td =21°C

Td =21°C
DD =16°C Td =14°C

J
UL

LLJ
Td =21°C DD =16°C
LLJ Td =10°C
(A) Td =10°C (B)

DD ≤6°C

SW DD ≤6°C

L
Td =10°C

Td =14°C
LLJ

Td = 21°C

Td =21°C
(C)

Figure 5 Composite charts for (A) tornadic thunderstorm, (B) derecho, and (C) flash flood days. Dark wind vectors indicate the position
of the low-level jet (LLJ); white wind vectors indicate the position of the upper-level jet (ULJ); and smaller dark wind vectors indicate the
500 hPa flow patterns. SW denotes 500 hPa short-wave location, and wavy line denotes 500 hPa dewpoint temperature depression isoline
in (C). L denotes the surface low-pressure center. Dash-dot line indicates the 850 hPa dewpoint temperature (Td ) isoline; dash-dot-dot line
indicates the surface dewpoint temperature isoline; dash-dash-dot line indicates the 700 hPa dew-point temperature depression (DD)
isoline; and dash-circle line indicates position of dryline. Cold and warm frontal boundaries are denoted using standard convention.
Shaded polygon-shaped area indicates where threat of the event is focused. (Part (A) after Barnes SL and Newton CW (1986)
Thunderstorms in the synoptic setting. In Kessler E (ed.) Thunderstorm Morphology and Dynamics, 2nd edn, pp. 75–112. Norman:
University of Oklahoma Press. Part (B) after Johns RH, Howard KW, and Maddox RA (1990) Conditions associated with long-lived
derechos: An examination of the large scale environment. Preprints, 16th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alberta,
pp. 408–412. Boston: American Meteorological Society. Part (C) after Maddox RA, Chappell CF, and Hoxit LR (1979) Synoptic and meso-
a scale aspects of flash flood events. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 60: 115–123.)
2572 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting

features are likely to be observed. Composite analyses
assist in defining the broad region of potential threat,
but more information is needed to develop a more
specific forecast product.
Parameter Evaluation
Parameter evaluation techniques are based upon
our understanding of the physical processes that
produce severe weather, and have changed significant-
ly over time as our understanding has advanced.
Through numerical simulations of severe weather
events and special observational facilities and field
experiments, knowledge of the types of local environ-
ments in which severe weather occurs is growing. This
knowledge leads to the development of various
parameters that are used to assess the severe weather
threat.
Whereas pattern recognition focuses primarily
upon the synoptic-scale features, parameter evalua-
tion often looks at point observations. In particular,
the vertical thermodynamic and wind profiles can
provide many clues as to the types of severe weather
that can be expected. For example, thunderstorms
require large values of convective available potential
energy to produce updrafts strong enough to form
large hail. However, we also know that updraft
strength is not the only factor influencing hailstones
and that the depth over which the hailstone is falling
through temperatures above freezing is also impor-
tant. Tornadic thunderstorms often are associated
with environments having very moist boundary layers
topped by an inversion and steep midlevel lapse rates
(Figure 6). Tornadic thunderstorms also often have a
low-level veering wind profile in which the storm-
relative environmental helicity is large. Parameters
that quantify aspects of the vertical thermodynamic
and wind profiles help further refine the regions in
which severe weather is possible.
Once the broad region of potential severe weather
threat has been defined, the forecaster then looks for
additional limiting factors that reduce the likelihood
of severe weather in the threat region. These factors
are often empirical and discovered from experience. In

100

_ _
SREH = 352 m 2 s 2
_ _
BRNSHR = 68 m 2 s 2
_ 30 _ 10 10 30
12 16 20 24 28
200
Pressure (hPa)

300

400

500

600
3 5 8 12 20
700
800
900
1000
_ 30 _ 20 _ 10 0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (°C)

Figure 6 Skew-T log p diagram of mean temperature (heavy line), dew-point temperature (light line), and winds from tornado proximity
soundings. Full wind barb is 5 m s 1. Hodograph plotted in upper right for winds at surface, 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 500 hPa, 300 hPa, and
200 hPa levels showing significant curvature of the wind profile with increasing height. Values of storm-relative environmental helicity
(SREH) and bulk Richardson number shear (BRNSHR) calculated from this wind profile are shown. SREH calculated using a
climatological storm motion based upon the mean wind in the 850–200 hPa layer. (Thermodynamic sounding after Fawbush EJ and Miller
RC (1953) A method for forecasting hailstone size at the earth’s surface. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 34: 235–244;
wind profile after Maddox RA (1976) An evaluation of tornado proximity wind and stability data. Monthly Weather Review 104: 133–142.)
 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting 2573
the past, limiting factors were related to output from
numerical weather prediction models. More recently,
limiting factors have often been related to the mete-
orological parameter evaluations. If one or more
parameters are unfavorable for severe weather, then
the region of severe weather threat may be reduced or
these factors may be discussed in the forecast text.
However, a variety of environmental factors influence
the development of severe weather. It is not always
clear in advance whether one marginal ingredient
(such as instability) can be offset by sufficient
vertical wind shear to develop an isolated severe storm
or will perhaps result in more widespread severe
weather.
Initiation
Convective initiation is one of the most difficult
aspects of severe thunderstorm forecasting. It is not
uncommon for all the above factors to indicate that the
storm environment is favorable for severe weather,
assuming thunderstorms develop. It is this last caveat,
that thunderstorms actually develop, that often proves
very challenging to forecast accurately. Three elements
are necessary for the development of thunderstorms:
low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and lift.
Many of the above analysis techniques evaluate the
low-level moisture content and steep midlevel lapse
rates, but whether or not a parcel of boundary layer air
can reach its level of free convection, above which it is
warmer than the environment and rises freely to near
the tropopause, is not easy to assess. Even when we
believe it is likely that deep convection will develop,
specifying the time and location of initiation can prove
very elusive.
Convective initiation is a small-scale process and is
influenced by small-scale features such as boundary
layer thermals, terrain, and vegetation contrasts; by
mesoscale features such as cold surface outflows from
previous convective activity, drylines, and sea breeze
fronts; and by synoptic-sale features such as cold and
warm fronts. All these features can interact to produce
the lift needed to initiate deep convection at a given
location. In one case, strong surface outflows were
observed to collide and a new area of convection was
forecast to occur in the region of collision. No new
convection developed. Postanalysis with special data
indicated that a collision of upper-level anvil outflow
also occurred over a large region above the surface,
producing sinking motion that inhibited further con-
vective initiation, as drawn schematically in Figure 7.
This multiscale process is beyond our present ability to
observe using routine observational facilities, while
many of these features also are not understood
completely. It should be no surprise that accurate
forecasts of convective initiation continue to elude
even the best forecasters.
The difficulty of forecasting the exact details of
convective initation was one factor that led to the
development of the ‘severe local storm watches’ for
both tornadic thunderstorms and severe (nontornadic)
thunderstorms in the United States. A severe local
storm watch means that severe local storms are likely if
storms develop. These watches are usually issued for
periods of 4–6 h over a region of 52 000 km2 and have
a quadrilateral shape. They are intended to focus
attention on a smaller region in which the forecaster
believes there is a significant threat of severe weather
and in which convective initiation is most likely to
occur first within a broader region of threat. Watches
are an effective way to alert the public to stay abreast
of current developments so that they can take appro-
priate action if necessary.
Evolutionary Concerns
Once convection develops, or a severe weather event is
under way, it is necessary to determine how long the
severe weather threat will last, what additional areas
will be affected by the event, and how the structure of
the developing system will evolve. In many cases, it is
not unusual for the type of severe weather threat to
H
A Perturbation flow,
H B upper level
Observed flow,
H low level
C H D
250 hPa A B
H H
Observed flow,
upper level
H H
Surface C D
Figure 7 Schematic of hypothesized mesoscale features and
circulations showing observed colliding low-level storm outflows
and the perturbation upper-level converging anvil outflows. Lower
schematic depicts hypothesized vertical motions driven by the
convergence of both upper-level and low-level outflows through a
vertical cross-section connecting points A, B, C, and D in the upper
schematic. (After Stensrud DJ and Maddox RA (1988) Opposing
mesoscale circulations: A case study. Weather and Forecasting 3:
189–204.)
2574 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting
change. The initial threat may be tornadic thunder-
storms, but over time these thunderstorms may merge
and form a line of convection or a mesoscale convec-
tive system. At this later time, the severe threat may be
flash flooding or damaging surface winds. This change
in the severe weather threat often requires a different
type of response from local officials such as emergency
managers, and is another important piece of severe
weather forecasting.
Role of Numerical Models
Output from numerical weather prediction models
provides the forecaster with valuable information on a
possible future state of the atmosphere. The ability to
predict how the atmosphere will evolve is very
important, because patterns and parameters that
affect severe weather potential are rarely static. They
continuously undergo change, and small changes in
some parameters can lead to either severe weather
occurring or no storms at all. Since model-generated
forecasts are available at regular time intervals and
over a three-dimensional grid that covers the forecast
area of interest, the same techniques used for assessing
the severe weather threat with observational data can
be used to assess the severe weather threat at future
times. These techniques include pattern recognition
and parameter evaluation. The added difficulty is that
numerical weather prediction models are not perfect
and often have biases, and one must account for these
model errors in the preparation of the forecasts. An
additional challenge arises because known biases
and systematic errors often change as models are
routinely updated. This model improvement process
requires forecasters to continuously monitor model
performance.
Measures of numerical model skill indicate that the
operational models in use today are much better at
forecasting the synoptic-scale features of the atmos-
phere than were the numerical models in use 20 years
ago. Unfortunately, the skill of numerical models to
forecast the small-scale and mesoscale features so
important in the forecasting of severe weather has not
seen a similar increase. Thus, even though numerical
models predict details such as convective initiation
and evolution, these fields cannot be treated with the
same certainty as the synoptic-scale patterns. Convec-
tion is one of the most difficult forecast fields to predict
accurately, since it is influenced strongly by all the
other physical processes in the numerical model and is
sensitive to mesoscale variability in initial conditions
that are not resolved by standard observational data
networks.
Forecasters often begin examining numerical model
output through an analysis of model performance over
the previous day or two. Since several numerical
models are available at any given time, forecasters also
compare the output from the various models to learn
where they agree and where they disagree. The amount
of agreement between models often provides the
forecaster with a measure of confidence that the model
solutions are more right than wrong.
Once the likely evolution of the synoptic-scale
weather pattern has been determined from the numer-
ical model output, the forecaster then applies the same
techniques of pattern recognition and parameter
evaluation to the model data. From this analysis a
likely evolution of the severe weather situation is
developed. Close monitoring over time of the accuracy
of the model forecasts occurs by comparing the model
fields with all available observational data. This is
usually accomplished using computer workstations
that display simultaneously a multitude of real-time
data (such as surface and upper-air observations, and
radar and satellite imagery) and model output valid at
the current time. This nearly continuous process of
model forecast evaluation often provides information
on where the model forecast is in error and leads to
adjustments in the severe weather forecasts. The
process begins again as a new model forecast is
produced and made available to the forecaster.
Forecasting Severe Weather Events
It is difficult to illustrate the process of severe weather
forecasting without examining events that show the
complexities one encounters when using observations
and numerical model output. Therefore, two severe
weather events that show the diversity of the issues are
illustrated. Since these are brief analyses of events that
have already happened – so that the ‘answer’ to the
forecast problem is known – the importance of partic-
ular synoptic features and meteorological para-meters
is typically clearer now than it was prior to the event.
Flash Flood Event: 8–9 October 1992
The growth of outdoor recreational activities in
mountainous areas has increased the risks due to
heavy precipitation events, since people are now more
frequent visitors to remote areas where the terrain is
steep and flash floods can occur quickly with moderate
amounts of rainfall. Delivering weather information
to these locations with long enough lead times to allow
the public to take safety precautions likely requires a
watch product similar to that used for tornado and
severe thunderstorm forecasts in the United States.
 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting 2575
One flash flood event that illustrates the difficulties
in forecasting these events occurred over the coast of
eastern Spain on 8–9 October 1992. Over 200 mm of
rain fell in the mountains to the west of Valencia within
a 24-h period, with amounts exceeding 100 mm over a
much larger area. The fall season is the climatological
maximum for flash floods and heavy rainfall in this
region of Spain, so forecasters are always alert for
signals that this type of event could occur.
A composite analysis of conditions during the event
(Figure 8) shows many similarities to flash flood
composite analyses. These features include a moist
low-level environment, strong low-level flow across
the warm front producing strong moisture and warm
temperature advection, and a short-wave trough at
500 hPa just upstream of the surface low center.
However, as with most forecast situations, there are
also a number of differences between this event and the
more classic flash flood patterns shown in Figure 5.
The surface moist layer for this case is shallower,
extending to below 850 hPa, and the atmosphere is
drier above this moist layer than is typical. This
shallow moist layer, topped by a dry mid-troposphere,
might cause a forecaster to doubt the heavy rainfall
potential. However, the orography of eastern Spain,
L Td =15°C
LLJ
SW
Figure 8 Composite chart for 1200 UTC 8 October 1992 for a
flash flood case in eastern Spain. Dark wind vector indicates the
position of the 850 hPa low-level jet (LLJ); gray wind vectors
indicate the position of the near-surface jet; thin dark wind vectors
indicate the 500 hPa flow pattern. SW denotes 500 hPa short-wave
location. L denotes the surface low-pressure center. Dash-dot-dot
line indicates the surface dew-point temperature (Td) isoline. Cold
and warm frontal boundaries are denoted using standard conven-
tion. Steep terrain regions in eastern Spain are indicated by black
triangles. Shaded polygon-shaped area indicates where threat of
the event is focused.
with coastal mountains extending to above 2000 m
and oriented almost perpendicular to the low-level
flow on this day, is a factor that is not considered in the
flash flood composites. It is well known that orog-
raphy can play a significant role in the production of
heavy rainfall when the flow is upslope and strong, and
the moisture content of the low-level air is high, by
lifting the air to its lifting condensation level and
producing clouds and persistent heavy rainfall up-
stream of the highest terrain. This orographic lifting of
warm, moist, low-level air appears to have been the
major contributor to the heavy rainfall and flash floods
on this day.
Tornadic Thunderstorm Outbreak Event:
3 May 1999
Since strong and violent tornadoes are almost always
associated with supercell thunderstorms, a subset of
all thunderstorms that have strong, persistent mid-
level rotation coincident with the storm updraft, the
forecasting of significant tornadoes is very similar to
the forecasting of supercell thunderstorms. Envi-
ronmental factors that are favorable for supercell
UL
J
Td =19°C
SW
LLJ
Td =10°C Td =10°C
Figure 9 Composite chart for 0000 UTC 4 May 1999 for a
tornado outbreak case in the south–central United States. Dark
wind vector indicates the position of the 850 hPa low-level jet (LLJ);
white wind vector indicates the position of the upper-level jet (ULJ);
and thin dark wind vectors indicate the 500 hPa flow pattern. SW
denotes 500 hPa short-wave location. Dash-dot line indicates the
850 hPa dew-point temperature (Td ) isoline; dash-dot-dot line
indicates the surface dew-point temperature isoline. Cold frontal
boundary is denoted using standard convention. Dash-circle
indicates position of dryline. Shaded polygon-shaped area indi-
cates where threat of the event is focused.
2576 WEATHER PREDICTION / Severe Weather Forecasting

thunderstorm development are moderate to large
values of convective available potential energy and
vertical wind shear, often evaluated by calculating the
storm-relative environmental helicity. Many studies
have demonstrated that these two factors lead to the
development of midlevel rotation in thunderstorms,
the key characteristic of supercells. It has recently been
suggested that the development of low-level rotation
in thunderstorms is influenced by the distribution of
rainfall near the updraft. This effect has been evalu-
ated using various measures of midlevel storm-relative
winds. Thus, once a prediction of supercell thunder-
storms is made, forecasters examine the strength of the
midlevel storm-relative winds to determine the likeli-
hood of tornado development.
On 3 May 1999 a tornado outbreak occurred over
the south–central United States that produced more
than 60 tornadoes and resulted in 45 deaths and over
US$1 billion in damage. This event is unusual in that
some of the synoptic features common to tornado
outbreaks were absent, notably the lack of a strong,
fast-moving short-wave trough and a deepening sur-
face low-pressure center. In addition, there are no clear
signals in the data as to why convection developed in
one region as opposed to another, and the numerical
model output provided little useful information on
convective initiation. However, a composite analysis
of fields from a 24-h forecast valid at the time of the
tornadoes shows many features seen in tornado
composite analyses (Figure 9). The low levels are
moist and a strengthening low-level jet advects addi-
tional moisture into the region of threat. At upper
levels a jet stream is crossing the region, although the
short-wave trough is relatively weak, slow moving,
and located too far west. A surface dryline is also in
place ahead of the cold front, which could act to
initiate convection, although convergence along the
dryline is predicted to be modest at best. Thus, pattern
recognition techniques using 24-h model forecast data
suggest a potential for severe thunderstorms, assuming
storms can develop.
Parameter evaluation techniques further suggest a
threat for supercell thunderstorms. Model forecast
soundings show moist low levels, capped by an
inversion, with steep midlevel lapse rates, allowing
for large values of convective available potential
energy as seen in Figure 10. The vertical wind shear
is moderate and calculations of storm-relative envi-
ronmental helicity are well above the threshold values
typically associated with supercell thunderstorms.
Now that the threat of supercell thunderstorms has
been diagnosed, further analysis of the midlevel storm-
relative winds indicates that these are favorable for
the development of low-level rotation, or tornadoes.

100
_ _
CAPE = 3000 m 2 s 2
_ _ _ 30
SREH = 250 m 2 s 2
_2 _2
BRNSHR = 50 m s

_ 20
8 12 16 20 24 28 32
200
_ 10
Pressure (hPa)

300 0

400 10

500
30
600
1 2 3 5 8 12 20
700 40
800
900
1000
_ 30 _ 20 _ 10 0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (°C)

Figure 10 Skew-T log p diagram of 24-h model forecast temperature (heavy line), dew-point temperature (light line), and winds from
central Oklahoma at time of the tornadoes. Full wind barb is 5 m s 1. Values of convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm-
relative environmental helicity (SREH) and bulk Richardson number shear (BRNSHR) calculated from this wind profile are shown. SREH
is calculated using a climatological storm motion based upon the mean wind in the 850–200 hPa layer.

Thus, the threat for tornadic supercell thunderstorms
is recognized, but the question of initiation remains. If
storms initiate, there is a high likelihood of some
tornadic thunderstorms, but it is doubtful that anyone
could have anticipated the number and violent nature
of the storms on this day. Forecasters at the Storm
Prediction Center closely monitored the observational
data and issued a tornado watch as soon as convective
initiation appeared likely. They were alert to the
potential danger from this weather scenario and acted
quickly once the threat was realized.
Future Directions
As computer power continues to increase, it is likely
that numerical weather prediction models will be able
produce forecasts over large regions of the globe that
can explicitly resolve individual thunderstorms in
great detail. Some have taken this capability to mean
that the need for human forecasters will be reduced,
since numerical model guidance will have so much
detail. Unfortunately, the atmosphere is a complex
system and this complexity may be the greatest for
severe weather events, suggesting that processes like
convective initiation will continue to be difficult to
forecast accurately. Advances in our scientific under-
standing of the processes that lead to the development
of severe weather may alter many of the parameter
evaluation methods mentioned. Therefore, the need
for human forecasters and their ability to assimilate
vast amounts of information quickly and incorporate
recent scientific advances into their work will remain
for the foreseeable future.
WEATHER REGIMES AND MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA
F Molteni, Abdus Salam International Centre for
Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Introduction
The atmosphere can be regarded as a dynamical
system with an infinite number of degrees of freedom.
If one considers the whole spectrum of atmospheric
phenomena, covering different spatial and temporal
scales, the number of states that can be assumed by the
atmospheric variables is indeed infinitely large. How-
ever, when interest is restricted to the large-scale
WEATHER REGIMES AND MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA 2577
See also
Convective Storms: Convective Initiation; Overview.
Flooding. Lightning: Overview. Mesoscale Meteorol-
ogy: Overview. Microbursts. Operational Meteo-
rology. Radiosondes. Severe Storms. Synoptic
Meteorology: Forecasting; Weather Maps. Tornados.
Further Reading
Bluestein HB (1993) Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in
Midlatitudes, vol. 2, Observations and Theory of Weath-
er Systems. New York: Oxford University Press.
Browning KA (ed.) (1982) Nowcasting. New York: Aca-
demic Press.
Cotton WR and Anthes RA (1989) Storm and Cloud
Dynamics. New York: Academic Press.
Doswell CA III (ed.) (2001) Severe Convective Storms.
Boston: American Meteorological Society.
Houze RA Jr (1993) Cloud Dynamics. New York: Academic
Press.
Johns RH and Doswell CA III (1992) Severe local storms
forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 7: 588–612.
Kessler E (ed.) (1983) The Thunderstorm in Human Affairs.
Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Kessler E (ed.) (1986) Thunderstorm Morphology and
Dynamics. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Pielke RA (1984) Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling. New
York: Academic Press.
Ray PS (ed.) (1986) Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecast-
ing. Boston: American Meteorological Society.
Saucier WJ (1983) Principles of Meteorological Analysis.
New York: Dover.
URLs
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard
features of the atmospheric circulation (especially in
the extratropics during the cold season), many stati-
stical analyses of the multidecadal record of observed
data suggest the existence of preferred circulation
patterns that seem to be particularly recurrent and/or
persistent.
Examples of these recurrent flow types are presented
in Figure 1: the monthly mean geopotential height at
500 hPa in January of four different years is shown,
superimposed on the corresponding anomalies (i.e.,
deviations from climatology) over the northern extra-
tropical regions. It is evident that the two circulation
anomalies shown in each row of Figure 1 are quite