Glacier-related hazards and climatic change

Stephen G. EvansJohn J. Clague

Citation: AIP Conference Proceedings 277, 48 (1992); doi: 10.1063/1.43890

View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.43890
View Table of Contents: http://aip.scitation.org/toc/apc/277/1
Published by the American Institute of Physics
 GLACIER-RELATED HAZARDS AND CLIMATIC CHANGE

Stephen G. Evans
Geological Survey of Canada
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8

John J. Clague
Geological Survey of Canada
Vancouver, British Columbia V6B 1R8

ABSTRACT
Climatic warming during the last 100-150 years has resulted in a significant
glacier ice loss from mountainous regions of the world. Most glaciers have undergone
thinning and their margins have retreated significantly since the Little Ice Age. Natural
processes associated with this loss of glacier ice pose hazards to people and the
economic infrastructure in mountain areas. These processes include glacier avalanches,
landslides and slope instability caused by debuttressing, catastrophic outburst floods
from moraine-dammed lakes, and outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes
(jOkulhlaups). The total loss of life from glacier-related catastrophic events in the
Andes, Himalayas, Alps, and other major mountain systems is in excess of 30,000;
damage to the economic infrastructure of the affected regions is probably in excess of
one billion dollars. In 1941, for example, a single outburst from a moraine-dammed
lake in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru killed over 6000 people.

INTRODUCTION
Glaciers in all mountain regions of the world have undergone both dramatic
thinning and retreat during the last hundred or so years 1,2. Little Ice Age glacier limits,
which generally represent the maximum Holocene extent of mountain glaciers, are
evident both in clearly visible a'imlines above present-day glacier surfaces and morainal
complexes beyond present-day glacier termini. The rapid glacier ice loss since the Liule
Ice Age has destabilised adjacent slopes and glacier ice masses themselves, and has also
created unstable natural impoundments of significant volumes of water adjacent to
glaciers. Catastrophic landslides and outburst floods (Figure 1) have resulted from these
changes, and their incidence is directly related to late nineteenth and twentieth century
climatic warming.
The objective of this paper is to review the range of catastrophic processes
generated by rapid ice loss since the Little Ice Age. Examples are reviewed from
mountainous regions of the world with particular emphasis on the Cordillera of western
Canada.

GLACIER AVALANCHES
A glacier avalanche3,4 is a sudden, rapid, downslope movement of ice following its
detachment from the terminus of a glacier. Conditions favourable for ice avalanching
are created when the terminus of a glacier retreats up a steep slope. Glacier avalanches

48 9 1993 American Institute of Physics

 S. G. Evans and J. J. Clague 49

G L A C I E R - R E L A T E D H A Z A R D EVENTS 1842 - 1992

O 9 "~'~

OO \

s' '~, J \ \',~ ??

f" [

Figure 1. Location of glacier-related hazard events 1842-1992.

are common in mountainous areas and are hazardous in their own right; for example, at
least 124 people were killed by glacier avalanches between 1901 and 1983 in the Swiss
Alps alone 5. In addition, as detailed below, when the avalanching ice plunges into a
moraine-dammed lake, it can generate waves that overtop the dam, which may trigger a
catastrophic outburst. Glacier avalanches usually occur during the summer months and
result from a destruction of tensile strength in the ice mass through progressive
fragmentation associated with crevasse development, the melting of parts of the glacier
that may be frozen to the substrate, and the reduction of frictional resistance at the
ice/rock interface due to increased water pressures.
Three examples are illustrative of the scale and effects of the process:

Altels, Switzerland; On September 11, 1895, approximately 4.5x106 m 3 of ice broke

away from a glacier just above the 3000-m level on Altels (3629 m) 6,7. The
detachment took place on a smooth bedrock surface dipping towards the valley at 35 ~
The ice descended the steep slope and became airborne when launched off a ledge at
about 2200 m. This generated an air blast, created by the escape of trapped air beneath
the avalanche, which killed 4 people in a hut 250 m beyond the margin of the
avalanche and also destroyed parts of a mature forest. A total of 6 people and 158 head
of cattle were killed and a large part of the summer's produce of cheese, butter, and
whey was destroyed. When it hit the valley bottom, 1440 m below the source, the
avalanche was travelling at about 120 m/s 7. The glacier had undergone considerable
retreat since 1841 when the first topographic survey was made.
50 Glacier-Related Hazards and Climatic Change

Fallen Glacier, DisenchantmentBay, Alaska; A glacier avalanche involving 29• m3

of ice, occurred on the steep western slope bordering Disenchantment Bay, Alaska, in
July 19058,9. The ice fell from an altitude of about 300 m, on an average slope of 28 ~
and plunged into the waters of Disenchantment Bay along a front 800 m wide. The
rapid entry (est. velocity 60 m/s9) of the ice mass generated a massive displacement
wave in the Bay. Eight hundred meters south of the entry zone the wave rose 33 m
breaking off alder bushes at that height. About 4.8 km north of the zone vegetation
was killed by the wave up to 20 m a.s.l, and 3.5 km across the Bay from the entry
zone, it reached a point 35 m a.s.1, at the northwest end of Haenke Island. A similar
event in about 1850 reportedly killed about one hundred Indians who were at a summer
seal camp in Disenchantment Bay. It appears that Fallen Glacier was destabilized by
rapid glacier retreat in the mid to late nineteenth century which occurred in response to
the marked regional warming noted by Hansen and Lebedeff1~

Allalin Glacier, Switzerland; On August 30, 1965, a major disaster took place at the
Mattmark dam construction site when about 106 m3 of ice detached from the terminus
of the Allalin Glacier3,4. The avalanche killed 88 construction workers (Figure 2).
Photographs taken hours before the disaster indicate that the ice mass was heavily
fractured. The Allalin Glacier underwent significant retreat after 1923 (Figure 3) up a
steep rock slope above the Saas valley and it failed when the terminus reached a steeper
portion of the slope.

Figure 2. Oblique aerial view of the 1965 Allalin Glacier avalanche which killed 88
construction workers at the Mattmark Dam construction site, Switzerland
(Photo by COMET, Zurich).
 S. G. Evans and J. J. Clague 51

Figure 3. Profile of 1965 Allalin Glacier ice avalanche showing the dramatic retreat
of the glacier between 1923 and 1965 (modified from Rothlisberger4).

Figure 4. Schematic diagram showing relation between glacier thinning/retreat and

landslides.
52 Glacier-Related Hazards and Climatic Change

LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS

Slopes adjacent to glaciers which have undergone retreat and thinning are
particularly prone to landslides (Figure 4). Erosion by glaciers during the Little Ice Age
and subsequent debutressing during retreat have destabilised slopes.
Two highly destructive landslides from the north peak of Nevados Huascaran 11,12,
in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru in 1962 and 1970 were probably due in part to the
effects of rapid glacier thinning and retreat from Little Ice Age limits. During the period
1886-1942, the f'Lrn limit on Huascaran rose in elevation from 4320 m to 5100 m,
including a 500-m rise between 1932 and 194213. In addition, the canopy of ice on the
summit ridge of Huascaran thinned dramaticallyTM.In 1962 approximately 13x106 m3
of rock and glacier ice detached from the north peak of Huascaran and travelled 16 km
down the Rio Shacsa, overwhelming several towns and villages. The average velocity
of the landslide was in the order of 47 m/s. The landslide killed about 4000 people,
mostly in the town of Ranrahirca.
In 1970, 50-100x106 m 3 of rock and ice, undermined by the 1962 event, detached
from a similar position on Huascaran's north peak. The landslide was triggered by an
earthquake (M = 7.7), the epicentre of which was located 130 km to the west. The
landslide exhibited spectacular mobility: in the upper part of the path, boulders were
hurled into ballistic trajectory and impacted 4 km from their launch positions. The
debris travelled a vertical distance of about 4200 m in a horizontal distance of 16 km
with a mean velocity of 75 m/s. The landslide caused an estimated 18000 deaths,
mainly in the town of Yungay.
Mass movements caused by glacier downwasting and retreat are common on steep
slopes adjacent to glaciers in the Canadian Cordillera15. Fifty-three percent of 30 known
historical rock avalanches in the Canadian Cordillera have occurred on slopes adjacent to
glaciers. Studies have shown that detachment surfaces of some of these rock avalanches
intersect rock slope surfaces below well marked Little Ice Age trimlines and were thus
exposed during recent glacier thinning. Examples from the Coast Mountains of British
Columbia are the Tim Williams Glacier16 rock avalanche (estimated volume 3x106 m3,
Figure 5) and the 1975 Devastation Glacier debris avalanche (estimated volume ca.
12x106 m3) 15.
A particularly good example of a landslide caused by Little Ice Age steepening and
subsequent debutressing is the 1992 rock avalanche (estimated volume 5-10x106 m 3)
from the flanks of Mount Fletcher in the Southern Alps of New Zealand 17. The
adjacent glacier had undergone approximately 250 m of thinning since the Little Ice
Age maximum. This thinning, which accelerated after the middle of the present century,
exposed a steeper toe slope through which rupture took place.
Glacier downwasting and retreat may also give rise to non-catastrophic slope
deformation. This type of movement is manifested in slope cracking, subsidence at the
top of the slope and bulging at its base. Examples have been reported from slopes
adjacent to glaciers in the St. Elias Mountains of British Columbia and AlaskaTM,a
region that has experienced substantial glacier ice losses in the twentieth century. At
Melbern Glacier, for example, thinning of 400--600 m since the Little Ice Age
 S. G. Evans and J. J. Clague 53

Figure 5. Vertical aerial photograph (BC 2182-52) of Tim Williams Glacier rock
avalanche, British Columbia, taken in 1956, A = detachment zone; B =
run-up on west valley wall; C = flow lines in debris; D = transverse
banding resulting from compositional variation in the debris; E = East Tim
Williams Glacier. Little Ice Age trimline is also apparent (arrowed).
54 Glacier-Related Hazards and Climatic Change

-E
1200
\l
LITTLE ICE AGE
800

400
\
1979
\
?
0
Figure 6. Topographic profile of Melbem Glacier, St. Elias Mountains, British
Columbia, and adjacent slope showing glacier thinning between Little Ice
Age maximum and 1979. Thinning has destabilised slope which is
manifested in sagging (arrowed) and bulging.

Figure 7. Aerial photograph (Canada A12856-385) of slope deformation adjacent to

Melbem Glacier, St. Elias Mountains, British Columbia. Little Ice Age
trimline is arrowed and cracking associated with slope deformation is visible
on the right hand side of the photograph.
 S. G. E v a n s a n d J. J. C l a g u e 55

maximum has debuttressed adjacent mountain slopes, causing extensive, non-

catastrophic slope deformation (Figures 6, 7).
Debris flows are also associated with recent glacial retreat. In the Swiss Alps
during the summer of 1987, numerous debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall of
unusually long duration 19. In a large number of cases, the source of the debris were
Little Ice Age terminal moraine complexes exposed during recent retreat. Debris
production may also have been related to the decay of ice cores within the moraines.
Similar factors have been suggested by Jordan to explain the occurrence of some recent
debris flows in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia2~

OUTBURSTS FROM MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES

Moraine-dammed lakes are found in high mountains close to existing glaciers.
They formed when glaciers retreated from moraines built during the Little Ice Age and
where the moraines dam glacial streams (Figure 8). Moraine dams are susceptible to
failure because they are steep-sided, have relatively low width-to-height ratios, and
consist of poorly sorted, loose sediment. In addition, these dams and the lakes behind
them commonly occur immediately downslope from steep slopes that are prone to
glacier avalanches and rockfalls. Moraine dams generally fail by overtopping and
incision. The triggering event is most frequently a glacier avalanche21 from the toe of
the retreating glacier which generates waves that overtop the dam (Figure 8). Melting of
ice cores and piping are other reported failure mechanisms21.
Four major moraine dam failures22,23 and related outburst floods occurred in the
Cordillera Blanca, Peru, between 1938 and 1950 following dramatic glacier ice losses
initiated in the 1920s and '30s. The most devastating was the 1941 catastrophic
emptying of moraine-dammed Lake Cohup. The discharged water entered another lake
downstream, causing it to drain. These events triggered a debris flow (estimated volume

Figure 8. Schematic diagram showing relation between glacial thinning and retreat,
and the formation and destruction of moraine-dammed lakes. Avalanching of
unstable glacier ice (A) into the lake generates waves that overtop moraine
dam (B) initiating catastrophic breaching.
56 Glacier-Related Hazards and Climatic Change

8 x 106 m 3) which destroyed 1/3 of the city of Huaraz, killing more than 6000
people22,23.
Several moraine dam failures have produced large floods and debris flows in the
Canadian Cordillera in recent years21,24,25. In the early 1970s, for example, the sudden
failure of the moraine impounding Klattasine Lake in an unpopulated part of the British
Columbia Coast Mountains released approximately 1.7x106m3 of water and triggered a
massive debris flow (estimated volume 2--4x106m3) that travelled 8 km to block the
Homathko River.
In the same region, ca. 6x106 m3 of water was released from Nostetuko Lake when
the moraine impounding the lake failed in 1983 (Figure 9). The breach was initiated by
waves generated by a glacier avalanche into the lake which overtopped the moraine. The
resulting flood wave devastated the valley below the moraine and travelled more than
100 km to the sea.

JOKULHLAUPS
Glacier-dammed lakes are found mainly at the margins of valley glaciers, although
some occur within or beneath cirque and valley glaciers and mountain ice caps. Some of
the largest lakes are situated in main valleys dammed by tributary glaciers and at the
mouths of tributary valleys blocked by trunk glaciers. These lakes may drain suddenly
and rapidly by the formation and enlargement of subglacial and englacial tunnels, and
occasionally by overtopping; the resulting flood is termed a jtikulhlaup.
Some of the world's largest documented historical j0kulhlaups occurred in the
Karakoram Himalayas in the first half of this century26,27. The damming of the Upper
Shyok River by the Chong Kumdan Glacier formed a lake with an estimated volume of
1.4 x 109 m3. A sudden outburst from this lake occurred in 1929, and the flood wave
travelled down the Shyok River into the Indus River. A rise in the level of the Indus of
8 m was measured at Attock, 740 km downstream from the ice dam.
Some formerly stable, glacier-dammed lakes have gone through a cycle of
jOkulhlaup activity during this century as glaciers have retreated from maximum
positions achieved during the Little Ice Age. An example is Summit Lake, dammed by
the Salmon Glacier in the northern Coast Mountains of British Columbia28,29 (Figure
10). This lake first drained catastrophically in 1961 after a lengthy period of stability,
and has drained annually since 1970, with peak discharges of the largest floods in excess
of 3000 m3/sec28,29.
In contrast, many lakes that formerly produced j0kulhlaups have disappeared since
the Little Ice Age due to glacier retreat. Lake Alsek, one of the largest Holocene glacier-
dammed lakes in the world, formed behind Lowell Glacier in the Saint Elias
Mountains, Yukon Territory, and periodically produced j0kulhlaups with peak
discharges larger than the mean flow of the Amazon River3~ Lake Alsek formed and
emptied many times during the nineteenth and perhaps early twentieth centuries, but
has not existed in recent years due to retreat of Lowell Glacier.
J0kulhlaup frequency is related to climate warming through glacier retreat, as
illustrated in Figure 11. The inititiation of a j6kulhlaup cycle occurs when a threshold
of retreat and thinning is reached. JOkulhlaups then take place with decreasing
magnitude and frequency until the glacier dam ceases to exist.
 S. G. E v a n s a n d J. J. C l a g u e 57

Figure 9. Oblique view of Nostetuko Lake, a moraine-dammed lake in the Coast

Mountains of British Columbia which drained catastrophically in 1983. The
bulky, sharp-crested Little Ice Age moraine complex formed during the
nineteenth century. Approximately 6 x 106 m3 of water was released from
the lake. A glacier avalanche from the Cumberland Glacier, visible above
the remnant lake, probably initiated the breaching event. About
1.5 • 106 m 3 of material was eroded from the moraine dam during the
outburst, much of which was deposited in a debris fan immediately
downstream.
58 Glacier-Related Hazards and Climatic Change

Figure 10. Oblique photo of Summit Lake, British Columbia, looking down the
Salmon Valley. Salmon Glacier forms the ice dam which impounds the
lake. Summit Lake has drained annually since 1970.

I~ MAXIMUM LITTLE ICE AGE

STAND OF GLACIER
JOKULHLAUP CYCLE BEGINS
o_ JCJKULHLAUP CYCLE ENDS
5
"l- PRESENT
u

(~' @ (~) 1900 (~) 1800

GLACIER RECESSION I~l--- ADVANCE

Figure 11. Conceptual model of a jOkulhlaup cycle, initiated due to glacier relleat.
 S. G. Evans and J. J. Clague 59

CONCLUSIONS
Global warming has caused significant glacier ice loss since the Little Ice Age
resulting in both glacier retreat and thinning. Catastrophic natural processes triggered
by these glacier changes have been responsible for considerable death and destruction in
glaciated mountain areas of the world. These processes include glacier ice avalanches,
landslides and debris flows, outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes and j6kulhlaups
(outbursts from glacier-dammed lakes). Glacier avalanches have occurred where glaciers
have retreated up steep rock slopes. Landslides caused by debutressing due to glacier
thinning include rapid, mobile rock avalanches and non-catastrophic slope deformation.
Sources of debris flows are frequently moraine complexes exposed during glacier retreat,
which also may be ice-cored. Outbursts from moraine-dammmed lakes result from the
catastrophic breaching of the moraine dam, a process which is commonly initiated by
glacier avalanche-generated waves that overtop the moraine. J0kulhlaups occur once a
threshold is reached during glacier retreat. A j6kulhlaup cycle is thus initiated, during
which outburst floods occur with decreasing magnitude and frequency to a point where,
because of continued retreat, the glacier dam ceases to exist. Glacier-related hazards are
an important, underdocumented response to global warming.

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