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Energy Efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali Sector - A


Case Study of Shandong Province in China

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DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.25.3-4.661

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIALS IN THE CHLOR-ALKALI
SECTOR – A CASE STUDY OF SHANDONG PROVINCE IN
CHINA

by

Li, C., Zhu, L. and Fleiter, T.

Reprinted from

ENERGY &
ENVIRONMENT
VOLUME 25 No. 3 & 4 2014

MULTI-SCIENCE PUBLISHING CO. LTD.


5 Wates Way, Brentwood, Essex CM15 9TB, United Kingdom
661

ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIALS


IN THE CHLOR-ALKALI SECTOR
– A CASE STUDY OF SHANDONG PROVINCE IN CHINA
Changsheng LIa,b, Lei ZHUb and Tobias FLEITERc
a
School of Economics and Management, Qingdao University of Science and Technology,
Qingdao, 266061, China
b
Corresponding author: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Institute of
Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,
email lions85509050@gmail.com
c
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we assess 13 process technologies to improve energy efficiency in
the Chlor-Alkali sector of Shandong province in China up to 2025 using a techno-
economic approach. The results show energy efficiency improvement (EEI)
potentials of 9% in the caustic soda and 38% in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
production process compared to a frozen-efficiency development. The most
influential technologies are energy-efficient electrolysis technology in brine
electrolysis step and heat recovery technology in Vinyl Chloride Monomer
synthesis (VCM) step. The energy savings can be translated into mitigated CO2
emissions of 10 Mt in 2025. The larger part of this potential is found to be cost-
effective from a firm’s perspective. In conclusion, significant saving potentials are
still available. However, to achieve the all potentials, additional energy policies are
needed.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, Chlor-Alkali sector, energy saving potentials,


energy-efficient technologies, CO2 marginal abatement cost

1. INTRODUCTION
In the struggle for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, the industrial sector plays an
important role, particularly in China. Its energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions
account for 33% and 36% of total energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions
worldwide, respectively [1]. In China, about 81% of CO2 emissions came from the
industry sector (including electricity and heat generation sector) in 2011 [2]. The
Chlor-Alkali sector is an important basic chemical raw materials industry in China.
The electricity consumed in the sub-process brine electrolysis accounts for 16% of the
total electricity consumption in China’s chemical industry [3]. Thus, improving energy
662 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

efficiency in the Chlor-Alkali industry is not only an important way to save energy but
also an important measure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
Due to rich natural sea salt, rock salt, underground brine salt resources, and well-
developed land and sea transport facilities, located in the Chinese eastern coastal
region, the Chlor-Alkali sector in the Shandong Province consists of more than 50
plants and occupies a pivotal position in China. In 2012, the production capacity of
caustic soda and Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) reached 9.65 million and 3.07 million
tons, accounting for 26.6% and 13.7% of China’s total respectively [4]. However, the
sector is facing increasing pressure to improve its energy efficiency further. Firstly, the
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has published five
documents with a list of 116 key energy-efficient technologies to be promoted by the
end of 2012. More than 48 national energy efficiency standards had been put into
practice by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) by June
2012. Secondly, energy efficiency improvement targets are set by the central
government and decomposed down to local energy users since 2006. The achievement
of these targets is an important aspect of the performance evaluation of local
governments and state-owned enterprises. Lastly, the easy measures have been put into
practice by companies. In this context, implementing suitable policies can accelerate
the energy efficiency progress and contribute to achieving the energy saving target.
However, knowledge about available energy efficiency technologies potentials and
their costs is a prerequisite for designing effective and efficient policies.
Due to their importance in energy saving and mitigation of greenhouse gas
emissions, energy saving potentials issues have been studied widely. Various types of
models including top-down integrated assessment models, bottom-up technical
models, and input-output models have been widely used in assessing energy saving
potentials and CO2 emission mitigation potential. Decomposition analysis is a ‘top-
down’ method where the analysis generally sets out from total energy consumption
and emissions. An overview of decomposition algorithms and their application in
industrial energy demand analysis was presented by Ang. et al [5, 6]. Examples of
index decomposition analysis were given in [7-10]. The ODEX indicator, another kind
of ‘top-down’ method and developed as part of the ODYSSEE project, was widely
used in European countries to provide an overview of sectoral and national energy
efficiency trends [11-13]. Frozen technology and energy trends simulation and two
bottom-up methods presented, as well as supply results at the detailed level of specific
policy measures. Boonekamp [14] compared the six methods to evaluate energy
savings at a national or sectoral level. He illustrated the adverse effects of certain
choices and problems of the individual methods.
Based on a very detailed description of energy-efficiency technologies (EET),
bottom-up methods have been widely employed to analyze energy-saving potentials
and CO2 mitigation potentials in the industrial sector [15-20]. Although most of these
studies used a technology-specific model, many did not investigate the effects of
technologies diffusion on the energy-saving potential. Instead they focused on
analyzing the energy system and evaluating energy savings potential. Fleiter et al. [21]
assessed 17 process technologies to improve energy efficiency in the German pulp and
paper industry up to 2035 using a techno-economic approach based on a bottom-up
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 663
– A case study of shandong province in China

model. They explicitly considered the diffusion of technologies over time, which
allowed transparency about the degree of maturity of the technologies and yielded
more detailed policy recommendations. McKane and Hasanbeigi [22] applied the
bottom-up energy efficiency supply curve models to estimate the cost-effective
electricity efficiency and potential as well as CO2 emissions reduction for industrial
motor systems in some selected countries. Oda et al. [23] and Hidalgo [24] applied
bottom-up models to energy efficiency in iron and steel industry, which have more
detailed assumptions on the simulation of technology diffusion.
Compared to other sectors, the wide range of products and the huge heterogeneity
are the central challenges for a technology-based bottom-up analysis in the chemical
sector. Even for the same product, different process and technologies may be used.
Worrell et al. [25] assessed the energy saving potential in the process chain for major
petrochemical products on the basis of commercially available technologies (CAT).
They found that the potential savings varied from inorganic chemicals 6% to
petrochemicals 9%. The energy saving potential in the process chain for major
petrochemical products varied from 12% for ethylene to 25% for PVC. Neelis et al.
[26] performed a bottom-up analysis of energy use in the chemical industry using a
model containing datasets on production processes for 52 of the most important bulk
chemicals as well as production volumes for these chemicals. They found that there
was significant room for improving energy efficiency. Neelis et al. [27] analyzed the
process energy use in relation to the heat loss and effects of the chemical reactions in
chemical industry and 68 petrochemical processes in the petrochemical industry for
Western Europe, the Netherlands and the world. Saygin et al. [28] analyzed the energy
efficiency potential if Best Practice Technologies (BPT) were implemented in
chemical processes in 66 chemical products in fifteen countries. The results suggested
a global energy efficiency potential of 16% for this sector, excluding savings in
electricity use, savings from higher levels of process integration, combined heat and
power (CHP) and post-consumer plastic waste treatment. Lu et al. [29] evaluated the
energy saving and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential if BPT were
implemented in Taiwan in six major energy-intensive sectors. Saygin et al. [30]
developed an advanced bottom-up model (PIE-Plus) to estimate the total energy use
and the actual energy efficiency improvements of Germany’s basic chemical industry.
There was a wide range of energy efficiency improvements for the sector: 2.1-5.9%
p.a. in the period between 1995 and 2008. Tian et al. [31] quantitatively examined the
energy consumption and energy efficiency of the industrial park and evaluated the
energy-saving potentials and cost-effectiveness of ten types of energy-saving
measures by means of a bottom-up method and scenario analysis in a Chinese fine
chemical industrial park. To summarize, while several papers used a bottom-up
approach to analyze the chemical industry, not many focused particularly on the Chlor-
Alkali industry, especially based on a process-specific technology assessment.
To analyze and illustrate saving potentials and their cost-effectiveness,
conservation supply curves (CSC) and marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) have
been widely used. CSC has already been applied in 1980 to analyse and to identify
profitable energy-efficient technology during the investment decision-making process
[32]. Worrell et al. performed an in-depth analysis of the US cement industry and
664 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

developed a CSC to identify cost-effective energy efficiency measures and related


saving potentials. The results provide a basis for a least-cost greenhouse gas (GHG)
mitigation strategy in the cement industry [33]. McKinsey & Company [34] developed
a global MACC, considering more than 200 abatement opportunities, spread across ten
sectors and twenty-one geographical regions, and in a 2030 time perspective.
In this study we aim to assess the saving potential of EETs in the Chlor-Alkali
sector as well as their cost-effectiveness. In doing so, we will focus on the production
of caustic soda and PVC, which are the most important products in this sector with
regard to energy consumption. A case study is performed for the Chlor-Alkali sector
of Shandong Province in China.
Our approach can be subdivided into four main steps:
1) A technology-specific bottom-up model is developed to assess energy saving
and CO2 mitigation potential in the caustic soda and PVC production process in
the Chlor-Alkali sector in the province of Shandong. We define different
technology diffusion scenarios to assess the impact of uncertainties on the
energy-savings and emission reduction potentials.
2) The present market shares of EETs are obtained by conducting a survey among
more than 15 representative plants. In order to have robust assumptions on the
technology–specific input data, we conducted in-depth interviews with
technology vendors, equipment manufacturers, experienced engineers,
technicians and designers.
3) We employ the average costs in their service life to assess the cost-effectiveness
of individual EET’s. The results allow a MACC to be drawn to illustrate the
cost-effectiveness of EETs.
4) A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impacts of uncertainties on
EET’s cost effectiveness, which cover energy price changes, energy mix
changes, the launch of emission trading scheme, and the discount rate used.
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the methodology.
The review of production process and main EETs are given briefly in Section 3.
Section 4 focuses on the scenario setting and analysis. The main results and analysis
are presented in Section 5 in detail. The conclusions and discussion are given in the
last section.

2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Model description
The model applied in this study is a process-specific bottom-up model. It is developed
as an accounting model using a technology diffusion scenario analysis. A similar
methodology has been used in other sectoral energy efficiency studies [21, 31].
With regard to technology structure, the Chlor-Alkali sector distinguishes processes
and EETs. Processes are characterized by their specific energy consumption (SEC) and
a production output. EET are defined as technologies that reduce the SEC of a
particular process. Thus, each EET addresses a specific process. The total annual
energy savings (TES) are calculated as the sum of saving potentials achieved by
technology diffusion of individual EET.
The annual energy savings (ES) of individual EET in year t for one scenario (Sc)
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 665
– A case study of shandong province in China

are calculated based on the specific saving potential (sp), the diffusion defined by the
difference between the market shares (MS) of the saving option in year t and the
baseline year in 2012, and the industrial production (IP) of the related process (p).

ESt ,Sc , p , EET = spEET *( MSt ,Sc , EET − MSt =2012,Sc , EET ) * IPt , p (1)

Diffusion is an exogenous assumption and derived from past development or


established through questionnaires and in-depth interviews. It should be noted that the
system boundaries in this paper are limited to process-specific technologies, excluding
cross-cutting technologies (e.g. motor systems, lighting or space heating).
The energy savings of each scenario are the sum of ES of individual EETs over the
different processes for year t and the level of production.

n m
TESt ,Sc = ∑ ∑ ESt , p , EET ,Sc (2)
p =1 EET =1

The CO2 mitigation potentials of energy savings are calculated based on CO2
coefficients. Besides the energy saving and CO2 mitigation potential, the cost-
effectiveness of individual EETs is an important factor for designing effective and
efficient policies. In this paper, we use the average abatement costs in the whole
service lifetime of individual EETs to assess their cost effectiveness.
The abatement costs are based on the total costs for an EET (TC) and the total CO2
emission (TCE) abated in its whole service lifetime.

TC EET
cEET = , (2)
TCE EET

The total costs (TC) comprise the initial investment costs (CI), the running costs
(CR), the saved energy costs (CE), the saved costs for emission certificates (CC), as
well as the saved material costs (MC) for material efficiency technology. All the costs
are discounted to present the value of the investment year excluding initial investment
costs.
CRt − CEt − CCt − MC
TEET

TC EET = CI + ∑ (4)
t =1 (1 + r )t

Similarly, the total CO2 abatement achieved in the whole service lifetime (TEC) is
the sum of the annual abatement (EC) of the individual EET.

TEET

TEC EET = ∑ ECt , EET (5)


t =1
666 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

It should be noted that the CO2 emission abatements achieved by material


efficiency technologies are indirect, which are embodied in saved energy-intensive
raw materials or products.

2.2 Data gathering


There are many process-specific EETs used in the production process of Caustic soda
and PVC. In this paper, we only consider EETs, which are commercially available or
those expected to be so in the near future. To select EETs we started with the
technology list released by the MIIT ‘clean production technology programs in key
sectors’ [35], which aimed to improve the energy efficiency and reduce emissions in
industry. Then it is further processed by consulting experienced engineers, technicians,
and designers. With the help of the Shandong Province Chlor-Alkali Industry
Associations (SDCIA), scenario input parameters are obtained by conducting a survey
among more than 15 representative plants and by 10 in-depth interviews with
technology vendors, equipment manufacturers, experienced engineers, technicians
and designers. Key input data, such as investment costs, operating costs, specific
energy saved, and service life, are also determined during the interviews. To make sure
these EETs’ key inputs robust, we further discussed these EETs inputs with technical
experts in a meeting held by SDCIA in July 2013 in Qingdao. Other parameters, such
as CO2 coefficients are referred to in an energy and CO2 emissions scenario study
report [36] and in Shang et al [37].

3. REVIEW OF THE MANUFACTURING PROCESS AND ENERGY-


EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES (EETS)
3.1 The Manufacturing process of caustic soda
Chlorine and hydrogen gas and caustic soda, or sodium hydroxide solution are
produced by applying a direct electric current to a brine (water and salt) solution.
There are three main electrolytic production technologies used in the Chlor-Alkali
industry — the diaphragm cell, mercury cell and membrane cell. Among them,
membrane technology yields a high quality product that demands approximately 25-
30% less electricity than the mercury technology [38]. But it requires additional
energy (usually steam) to concentrate the caustic from 32% solution to the commercial
grade of 50%. Up to the end of 2012, the market share of membrane cell has exceeded
93% in Shandong province Chlor-Alkali sector. Consequently, we focus on the
membrane technology in our analysis. The manufacturing process of caustic soda
mainly consists of brine production, brine electrolysis, chlorine and hydrogen
processing, caustic evaporation, and electricity transformation (auxiliary). The details
are shown in Figure 1.
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 667
– A case study of shandong province in China

Figure 1: Manufacturing process of caustic soda

Step 1: Brine production. In this step, raw salt is dissolved and saturated to crude
brine. Purified brine is prepared for electrolysis sub-process after primary and
secondary crude brine treatment in which impurities like calcium, magnesium,
sulphates, and heavy metals are eliminated. With regard to energy, steam and
electricity are consumed.
Step 2: Brine electrolysis. In this step, the purified brine prepared from sodium
chloride is electrolyzed in a membrane cell. The product is a caustic soda solution of
approximately 32%-35% concentration and co-products are chlorine and hydrogen.
This process is highly electricity intensive.
Step 3: Chlorine and hydrogen processing. In this step, chlorine and hydrogen
generated in electrolysis are treated by a series of steps, such as, washing, cleaning
drying, oxygen removing and compression for the next process use. Electricity is the
main form of energy consumed.
Step 4: Caustic evaporation. Sodium hydroxide produced in a membrane cell
reaches a concentration of about 32 to 35 percent. If needed, a moderate evaporation
to increase the concentration of the caustic solution is applied. Caustic evaporation
requires huge amounts of steam.
Auxiliary step: Electricity rectified. Direct current (DC) is needed in the
electrolysis step to produce caustic soda solution. Energy losses occur during the
transformation of alternating current (AC) into DC.

3.2 Manufacturing process of Poly Vinyl Chlorid (PVC)


Two alternative process routes are mainly used for PVC manufacturing: the ethylene-
based process and the calcium carbide-based process. The former is mainly composed
of acetylene production, hydrogen chloride (HCl) synthesis, Vinyl Chloride Monomer
(VCM) production, and PVC synthesis. The details of the manufacturing process for
PVC are shown in Figure 2.
668 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

Figure 2: Manufacturing process of PVC

Step 1: Acetylene production. At the present time, wet production processes were
most frequently used in the production of acetylene, including acetylene producing,
acetylene purification, drying, compressing, and carbide slurry processing. Electricity
is the main form of energy consumed in this step.
Step 2: Hydrogen chloride (HCl) synthesis. First, chlorine reacts with hydrogen to
produce HCl in a synthesis furnace. Then HCl is cooled and pumped to produce Vinyl
Chloride Monomer (VCM). Unused HCl is diluted into hydrochloric acid after
cooling. The reaction is a significant exothermic process and has a larger reaction heat
recovery potential.
Step 3: VCM production. There two ways of producing VCM. The first one is
Calcium carbide-based process; acetylene reacts with hydrogen chloride to produce
VCM. The process comprises raw gas blending, preheating, VCM synthesis,
purification, compression, distillation, residues recycling, and discharged gas
recovery. The reaction is exothermic.
Alternative step: Ethlene Di-Chloride (EDC) production. For the Ethylene-based
route, there two main methods to produce EDC: direct chlorination and
Oxychlorination. This step includes EDC production, purification, and thermal
cracking. The thermal cracking reaction is highly endothermic and is generally carried
out in a fired heater.
Step 4: PVC synthesis. In this step, the raw material VCM is pressurized and
liquefied, and then fed into a polymerization reactor where PVC is produced. The step
consists of monomer polymerization, VCM removal, slurry storage, dewatering,
drying, packing and storage. The main consumed energy is electricity for motors and
steam used for drying.
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 669
– A case study of shandong province in China

3.3 Review of EETs


In our analysis we selected 13 individual EETs as discussed in the following and
summarized in Table 2. According to the forms of energy saved, all EETs considered
can be divided into three kinds of EET:

3.3.1 Heat recovery technologies


(1) HCl synthesis reaction heat recovery
The synthesis of chlorine and hydrogen is an exothermic reaction that generates high
temperatures up to 2,500 °C. The available energy can be used to generate steam. The
recovery of the heat is achieved in a furnace-cooler and a falling-film absorber. Heat
is retrieved in the furnace-cooler unit thanks to a pressurized-water loop flowing
toward a flash vessel and steam is generated between 0.2 and 1.4 MPa. The heat
recovery rate is up to 70%. The technology could produce 0.42 tonne steam and
decrease electricity consumption by about 7 kWh per tonne PVC produced.
(2) VCM synthesis reaction heat recovery
The reaction heat released in the VCM synthesis process can be used to provide low
pressure steam by the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and makes cold water
for cooling the circulating water used in polymerizing. A great amount of energy
savings could be achieved.
(3) Chlorination reaction heat recovery
In the direct chlorination process, EDC is produced by a highly exothermal reaction.
The process operates at boiling conditions with a temperature of about 120 °C. The
heat can be recovered by several heat recovery options, e.g. heating of distillation
columns in EDC distillation unit or heating of a fluidized bed PVC drier yielding a
reduction of steam consumption of up to 700 kg/tonne of EDC [39-40]. In the
oxychlorination process, the heat released from the reaction of ethylene with hydrogen
chloride and oxygen could be used for steam generation.
(4) Two-effect pressure swing EDC distillation
The main purpose of EDC distillation is to remove vapor, low-boiling and high-boiling
compounds and make purified EDC for thermal cracking step. A two-effect pressure
swing distillation with countercurrent heat integration process was adopted to
substitute the normal distillation process to save energy in EDC distillation [41].

3.3.2 Material efficiency technologies


(1) Dry acetylene generation
Compared to the wet acetylene process, acetylene gas is generated by hydrolysis of
calcium carbide power sprayed water mist with an amount slightly more than the
theoretical minimum. The consumption of calcium carbide is reduced by nearly 51 kg
per tonne of PVC. Indirect energy savings also come from continuous feeding, which
improves the recovery rate of acetylene and reduces the amount of acetylene entrained
by carbide slurry. However, the electric power consumption is increased by 100 kWh
per tonne of PVC resulting from the smaller carbide particle size needed in the
technology [42].
(2) VCM exhaust gases pressure swing adsorption (PSA) technology
The VCM distillation tail gas containing PVC and Acetylene is adsorbed selectively
670 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

at high pressure. When the pressure drops, the adsorbed PVC and Acetylene are
released and the adsorbent is reused. The recovery rate of PVC could reach 99.9%
which is higher by about 10% [43].
(3) Oxychlorination exhaust gases recycling technology
In EDC production process, the exhaust gases mainly contain carbon monoxide,
carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and ethylene. The gases are dewatered by gas-liquid
separation, compressed to increase their pressure and fed back to the Oxychlorination
unit. The concentration of ethylene in exhaust could be decreased by 25% [42]

3.3.3 Other EETs


(1) The bipolar membrane electrolysis cells (BME)
BME is a modular concept, with a number of advantages, including low energy
consumption, long lifetime, and low investment costs. Compared to common
membrane electrolysis cells under the same current density, the electrolysis voltage of
BME decreased by 180mV, which results in a decline in electricity consumption of
about 127kWh per tonne of caustic soda.
(2) Zero-gap membrane electrolysis cells with oxygen-depolarized cathodes (ZGMODC)
As the membrane technology has been largely optimized and no major energy savings
can be achieved by its further modification, process intensification can only be
achieved by replacing the oxygen depolarized cathode (ODC). In practice, it is
observed that the electrolysis voltage of a conventional membrane cell of about 3 V at
4 kA/m2 can be reduced by approximately 30%, which would save about 600 kWh
electricity per tonne caustic soda [43].
(3) Three-effect countercurrent falling film evaporator concentrates (TCFFEC)
This technology takes advantage of the boiling point difference of lye at various
pressures. Evaporators are operated under different pressures and the heat embodied
in the second steam in this process is recycled. The steam consumed in this step is
reduced by 0.22 tonne steam per tonne caustic soda compared to that in the double-
effect evaporation process on average [44].
(4) High-temperature and high-pressure chlorine liquefying (HHCL) technology
Chlorine liquefaction at a high pressure by applying chilled water/brine results in the
lowest total operating cost. The selection of the pressure is subject to the capacity and
the selected type of chlorine compressor to manage this capacity. For smaller plants,
the liquefaction pressure is within 0.3-0.4 MPa. For higher plant capacities, the
pressure then is in the range of 0.7 to 1.3 MPa [45].
(5) New energy-efficient rectifier
The new rectifier could reduce eddy current loss, inductance and power loss of guides
and busbars significantly, improve the average flow coefficient, and improve
efficiency and power factors. The efficiency is improved by 0.3-0.5% [46].
(6) New energy-efficient PVC drier
The flash-fluidized bed is a new energy-efficient PVC drying technology and can
improve the system reliability and reduce power and steam consumed in drying
process. Compared to cyclone drying technology, the technology could save 210 kg of
steam and 45 kWh electricity per tonne of PVC [47].
While some heat recovery technologies are not novel, they will be used more widely
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 671
– A case study of shandong province in China

due to a trend replacing the calcium carbide process by the ethylene process in PVC
production. On the other hand, material efficiency technologies could achieve considerable
indirect energy savings by saving energy-intensive raw materials or products.

4. SCENARIO SETTING AND ANALYSIS


4.1 Technology diffusion scenarios
As described in section 2, the potential energy savings depend on the future diffusion
of EETs. At the same time, there is a large number of uncertainties related to the
diffusion of EETs such as their technical maturity and the impact of competing
technologies, policies and energy prices. In this paper, we explicitly consider the
uncertainties in technology diffusion scenarios in which diffusion paths are considered
as fixed exogenous variables. The exogenous diffusion parameters are obtained
through in-depth interviews with technology vendors, equipment manufacturers,
experienced engineers and technicians, researchers and designers in the Chlor-Alkali
sector. Three diffusion scenarios are considered in this paper.
(1) Frozen-efficiency scenario
In the frozen-efficiency scenario, diffusion as well as specific energy consumption
remains constant at the level of 2012 (see Table 2). It is the baseline for estimating the
energy saving potentials.
(2) Business-as-usual (BAU) diffusion scenario
The BAU scenario assumes that barriers to technology diffusion persist in the future;
it represents an extrapolation of past trends. The saving potential is only fully achieved
for a few EETs by 2025. The exogenous technology diffusion rates are set mainly
based on the past development as well as on discussions with experts from Chlor-
Alkali producing plants, technical research institutes and technology suppliers.
(3) Speeded diffusion scenario
In this scenario, the Chlor-Alkali sector will face more pressures of product structural
adjustment. At the same time, the regulator develops more effective and efficiency
policies to speed the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies. The barriers to
technology diffusion are removed completely in this scenario. The producers are more
active in promoting energy-efficient technologies. The saving potential of individual
technologies is fully achieved by 2025 and some even by 2020. An upper limit of the
diffusion speed is derived from the lifetime of the EETs and the related stock-turnover.
Thus, the diffusion does not assume a premature replacement of technologies, which
would increase the costs substantially.
A summary of the scenario input parameters is given in Table 1. It should be
clarified that the scenario is not a forecast, but rather a method to assess the impacts
of different assumptions or uncertainties on energy-saving potential, on CO2 emission
mitigation potentials.
Some new trends should be given attention. First, currently in China industrial
plants are being forced to leave urban areas and move to special industrial parks.
Secondly, the regulator encourages the replacement of the calcium carbide process by
the ethylene-based process in PVC production- especially in eastern China. This
restricts the diffusion of some EETs particularly used in the calcium carbide process,
such as the dry acetylene producing technology (see EET number 5).
Table 1: Summary of technology assumptions: technology diffusion scenarios per EET
672

BAU Speeded Diffusion


Process Sub-process/ step Energy-efficient technology (EET)
Technology life 2012 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025
cycle % % % % % % %
Brine electrolysis 1 BME Commercial 50 55 65 75 60 70 80
2 ZGMCOD a R&D 0 5 10 15 10 15 20
Caustic
Chlorine + hydrogen disposition 3 HHCLb Commercial 10 15 30 50 20 45 65
soda
Caustic concentration 4 TCFFEC c Commercial 10 15 20 25 20 30 30
Electricity rectified 5 New energy-efficient rectifier Commercial 45 50 70 90 60 85 100
Acetylene production 6 Dry acetylene process d Demonstration 4 8 20 30 10 30 50
HCl synthesis 7 HCl synthesis reaction heat recovery Commercial 20 25 30 35 30 40 50
VCM production 8 VCM synthesis reaction heat recovery Commercial 10 20 35 50 30 40 50
9 VCM exhaust gases SPA Commercial 30 35 40 45 40 50 50
PVC 10 Oxychlorination exhaust gases recycling Commercial 20 30 35 40 30 40 50
11 Chlorination reaction heat recovery e Commercial 20 30 35 40 30 40 50
12 Two- effect pressure swing EDC distilla- Commercial
20 30 35 40 30 40 50
tion
PVC synthesis 13 New energy-efficient PVC drier Commercial 20 35 60 85 40 85 100
a
The biggest obstacle of ZGMODC diffusion may be that no hydrogen is produced, which is an important industrial material and clean energy. The market share in 2025 is
about 20% according to our survey.
b
Chlorine liquefaction does not only make chlorine easier to transport but is also a useful chlorine purification method. However, only a smaller share need to be liquefied
in most Chlor-Alkali plants with a calcium-carbide based PVC production process (maximum market share of 65% according to our survey).
c
Most of the caustic soda solution with a concentration of 32% is produced in the electrolysis step and is used as an industrial product directly and does not go through the
final evaporation step. In Shandong province, the share is about 80% according to our survey.
d
There is only one dry acetylene production facility in Shandong Province for PCV production with a capacity of 0.13 million tons and a market share of 4%.
e
EET 10-12 are related to the ethylene based PVC production process; there is only one ethylene based PVC with a production capacity of 0.6 million tons and its market
share is approximately 20%. Encouraged and forced by government industrial adjustment policies, one PVC plant in Qingdao is moving out of the city while a new eth-
ylene-based process will be put into operation in 2015. Furthermore, about half of the plants are under consideration for a change in the production process in the coming
years. However, the speed of the production process substitution depends on future industrial policies and the availability of raw materials. Hence, the final diffusion rate is
set at 50% while the share of PVC produced through the calcium carbide process drops to 50% by 2025.
Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 673
– A case study of shandong province in China

4.2 Summary of technology assumptions


The technical and economics parameters used are summarized in Table 2. The absolute
specific energy savings are defined per production output of the corresponding
process. As it is hard to find an identical conventional technology to compare for a
single EET, we use the full costs instead of the differential costs, which are used in
similar studies [e.g. 21]. As cost data is rarely found in the literature, we mainly relied
on estimates by representatives from Caustic soda and PVC plants and technology
providers. The service lifetime is used for the cost-effectiveness calculations rather
than the real technology lifetime.
The specific energy savings consist of electricity, steam, and the indirect energy
saving per unit of output. For EETs 1-5, the unit is MJ/t. Caustic soda and the rest is
MJ/t. PVC. Initial investment costs mainly include equipment payment, installation
costs. Here, power consumption is included in the running costs besides equipment
maintenance costs and labor costs.

4.3 Other economic framework parameters


The energy saving potentials are also driven by the production output of caustic soda
and PVC, which depends on future economic growth and is expected to grow in China.
Regarding the Chlor-Alkali sector in Shandong province, in the first half of 2013 the
production output of caustic soda and PVC only increased by 2.28% and 3.5%
respectively, which is much lower than before. However, the twelfth five-year plan
points out that the production output of caustic soda and PVC will reach 280 million
tonne and 150 million tonne by 2015, respectively. To account for a reasonable
economic growth rate and the impact of China’s new urbanization strategy in the next
10-15 years, it is expected that the growth of caustic soda and PVC production output
will be somewhat accelerated compared with the current growth rate. It is assumed
that the average annual growth of caustic soda production is 5%, 8%, and 7%, and for
PVC is 6%, 10%, and 9% during 2012-2015, 2016-2020, and 2021-2025 respectively.
Other input parameters like the energy and emission certificate prices and the CO2-
intensity of energy carriers are shown in Table 3. We use the average CO2-intensity of
China’s electricity generation to calculate CO2 emissions. The electricity emission
factors are calculated based on an energy and CO2 emissions scenario study report of
China [35]. Calcium carbide and PVC emission factors in 2012 refer to an academic
paper about emission in the Chlor-Alkali sector [36].
Table 2: Summary of technology assumptions: specific energy savings and costs per EETs 674

Specific Energy savings a Costs


Energy-efficient technology Materials- Initial Invest- Running Service
Process Sub-process/step Electricity Heat
(EET) related ments costs lifetime
[MJ/t] [MJ/t] [MJ/t] [RMB/t] [RMB/t] [a ]
Brine electrolysis 1 BME 457 450 83.4 10
2 ZGMCOD 2322 400 74.0 10
Caustic Chlorine and hydrogen 3 HHCL
252 150 37.7 8
soda disposition
c
Caustic concentration 4 TCFFEC 752 225 70 10
Electricity rectified 5 New energy-efficient rectifier 23.4 70 2.2 20
Acetylene production 6 Dry acetylene process -360 1754 183 34.3 10
HCl synthesis 7 HCl synthesis reaction heat recov-
43 102 56.3 2.4 8
ery
VCM production 8 VCM synthesis reaction heat re-
306 2050 28 5.5 10
covery
9 VCM exhaust gases SPA 1561 26.7 1.1 10
PVC 10 Oxychlorination exhaust gases
46 1.35 0.3 10
recycling
11 Chlorination reaction heat
109 21 1.0 20
recovery
12 Two- effect pressure swing EDC
54 15..6 1.1 20
distillation
PVC synthesis 13 New energy-efficient PVC drier 162 790 66.7 49.7 20
a .
Main sources for specific savings: 1-2: LIU [46], LIU et al [47] , and Chen and Zhang [48] The average direct current (DC) consumption of BME is about 2,100 ~
2,250 kWh/ t caustic soda with energy savings of 100 kWh per ton caustic soda. The electricity consumption of ZGMCOD is decreased by 30% compared to BME
with an equivalent about 650 kWh per ton caustic soda; 3: Zhao [49]; 4-5: Zhang [54] 6: Shao and Zhao [51], LI et al [51].Calci um carbide is required to crash into
a diameter less than 3 mm in the dry acetylene process which results in an increase in special electricity consumption by 100 kWh per ton PVC. However, the cal-
cium carbide consumption is decreased by 50 kg per ton PVC; 7: Mu [52]; 8: Zhang et al [44], Shen and Kang [53]; 9: Ma and Fu [54], Nie [40]; 10: HU et al [42];
12: Cui et al [55]; 13: Wang [56]. These sources provided the basis for the assumed values and were verified in expert interviews, where there were deviating as-
sumptions for some EETs in the table.
Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 675
– A case study of shandong province in China

Table 3: Key assumptions for parameters


Unit 2012 2015 2020 2025
Annual production
output
Caustic soda Million tonne 7.52 8.71 12.80 17.95
PVC Million tonne 1.72 2.04 3.29 5.06
Prices
Electricity RMB/kWh 0.67 0.77 0.94 1.14
Natural gas RMB/kg 1.50 1.69 2.05 2.50
Steam RMB/t 200 225 274 333
CO2 emission permit RMB/tCO2 / 34 41 50
Calcium carbide RMB/kg 3.5 3,9 4.8 5.8
Ethylene RMB/kg 8.5 9.6 11.6 14.2
PVC RMB/kg 7.0 7.9 9.6 11.7
Emission factors
Electricity kg CO2/ kWh 0.77 0.71 0.61 0.56
Calcium carbide kg CO2/kg 3.28 3.02 2.59 2.40
Steam kg CO2/ MJ 0.0946 0.087 0.075 0.0695
PVC kg CO2/kg 7.4 6.82 5.84 5.42

5. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS


5.1 EET potentials and contributions analysis
The resulting energy efficiency improvement (EEI) potentials across both processes
up to 2025 are given in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Energy efficiency improvement potentials compared to the frozen


efficiency scenario

Here, the EEI potentials not only include the saved electricity, steam, recycled heat,
but also material efficiency. Excluding economic considerations, the total EEI
potential is estimated at about 9% in BAU and 12% in the speeded scenario compared
676 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

to the frozen-efficiency up to 2025. For the Caustic soda production process, EEI
potentials are about 7% in BAU and 9% in the speeded diffusion scenario compared
to the frozen-efficiency in 2025. Compared to the Caustic soda production process, the
EEI potential in the PVC production process remains quite large, which is 30% in
BAU and 38% in the speeded scenario in 2025 compared to the frozen-efficiency
scenario.
The contributions of each type of EET in the speeded diffusion scenario in 2025 are
shown in Figure 4. Heat recovery technologies contribute to about 25%, material
efficiency technologies to 14%. A large part of the energy savings comes from other
EETs (61%), which are mainly applied to the caustic soda production process.
The contributions to the EEI potentials from individual EETs and processes are
shown in Table 4. Although the relative EEI potential in the caustic soda production
process is not very high, the contribution of the process to the total energy savings
reaches about 57%. The brine electrolysis tops the list in the Caustic soda production
process with a contribution of about 39% to the total EEI potential. The PVC
production process contributes the rest, where the VCM synthesis step contributes
most with 29%.
The contribution of individual EETs to the aggregated EEI potentials is given in
Figure 5. It can be seen that ZGMODC has the largest contribution with a share of
about 30%. Another important EET is the VCM synthesis reaction heat recovery with
a share of 22%. Other EETs, such as BME, TCFFEC, HHCL and the dry acetylene
process also have a contribution of more than 8% respectively.

Figure 4: Contributions of each type of EET to the aggregated EEI potentials


Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 677
– A case study of shandong province in China

Figure 5: The contribution of individual EET to the aggregated EEI potentials in the
speeded diffusion scenario in 2025

Among others, this result depends on the EETs’ diffusion in future, which is
particularly uncertain for technologies not yet on the market, like ZGMODC.
Although the electrolysis technology should be favorable provided that electrodes
with low cell voltage, moderate production costs and satisfactory lifetime are
available, it has to be taken into account that hydrogen which is normally exploited as
a fuel is no longer produced [59]. So it is a promising option to reduce energy use and
abate CO2 emissions especially for chlor-alkali plants without or with a lower
hydrogen gas demand. The biggest obstacle for the technology diffusion is the
regulated and somewhat low energy price, especially for electricity. The pace of
electricity price reform in China will significantly affect the contribution of ZGMODC
to the aggregated EEI potentials.
Table 4: EEI potentials and CO2 mitigation in the speeded diffusion scenario in relation to the frozen-efficiency scenario by 678
process and EET

Energy savings CO2 mitigation


Material-
Electricity Heat [% of total
Process Sub-process/ steps EET related [TJ] k[t CO2 /a] [%]
[TJ] [TJ] savigns]
2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2025 2025 2025
Brine electrolysis 3849 8302 0 0 0 0 6409 62
1 BME 878 2051 1054
2 ZGMCOD 2971 6251 5355
Caustic Chlorine and hydro-
3 HHCL 645 1809 537 5.2
soda gen disposition
Caustic concentra-
4 TCFFEC c 963 2026 772 7.5
tion
Electricity rectified 5 New energy-efficient rectifier 75 189 76 0.7
Acetylene produc-
6 Dry acetylene process -190 -474 924 2310 456 4.4
tion
7 HCl synthesis reaction heat recov-
HCl synthesis 57 142 135 337 381 3.7
ery
VCM production 252 620 1769 4321 537 1232 1246 12.1
8 VCM synthesis reaction heat re-
252 620 1688 4155 702
covery
PVC 9 VCM exhaust gases SPA 514 1186 315
10 Oxychlorination exhaust gses
23 46 35
recycling
11 Chlorination reaction heat
54 111 44
recovery
12 Two- effect pressure swing EDC
27 55 150
distillation
PVC synthesis 13 New energy-efficient PVC drier 53 123 260 600 461 4.5
Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 679
– A case study of shandong province in China

5.2 Cost-effectiveness analysis


EETs are not only important measures for reducing energy use, but are also a central
greenhouse gas abatement option. Its cost-effectiveness is an important factor in
designing effective and efficient policies. The cost-effectiveness is presented in the
form of a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), which depicts both the CO2
mitigation as well as the specific mitigation costs. As mentioned in section 2, we use
the average abatement costs in the service lifetime of EETs to evaluate their cost
effectiveness.
For ease of analysis, we use a baseline in which energy prices, main raw material
and product prices remain at the 2012 constant level (see Table 3). The discount rate
used for the cost calculations is assumed to be 10%. The MACC for the baseline is
shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: The resulting marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) in the baseline case
of the speeded diffusion scenario in 2025

It is not surprising that material efficiency technologies have much lower average
abatement costs on the whole due to a large amount of indirect CO2 emissions
reduction. The lowest one is Oxychlorination exhaust gas recycling technology with a
negative average abatement cost of -650 RMB/tCO2. Heat recycling technologies also
have negative average abatement cost in which Vinyl chloride reaction heat recovery
technology is the lowest with -370 RMB/tCO2. Among other EETs, ZGMODC has the
largest CO2 annual mitigations with a negative average abatement cost. It implies that
ZGMODC technology is one important option to mitigate CO2 emissions for the
chlor-alkali sector in the future. Some other EETs also have a positive abatement cost
in which three countercurrent falling film evaporation technologies take the lead with
a cost of 886 RMB/tCO2.
Overall, the cost-effective mitigation potential is about 8 MtCO2 per year in 2025.
However, as the barriers to ZGMODC technology diffusion still exist at present, this
680 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

potential includes a high uncertainty and might turn out to be lower if ZGMODC is be
commercially available in the near future.

5.3 Key factors and their impact on average abatement costs


In the previous section, we have discussed the cost effectiveness of individual EETs in
the baseline assuming that energy prices, main raw material or product prices remain
constant at 2012 level. We will further investigate the impact of some vital factors,
such as energy price change, energy mix change, launching an emission trading
scheme (ETS), and the discount rate used, on the average abatement cost.
The resulting impact is shown in Figure 7. First, we discuss the effects of energy
price change. It is assumed that the energy price increases 4% annually. Energy price
change affects the saved energy costs and running costs respectively. We find that the
cost of saved energy exceeds the rise in running costs and reduces the average
abatement costs with an exception of the three-effect countercurrent falling-film
evaporation technology. Most sensitive to changes in energy prices is the new PVC
drying technology for which the average abatement costs decreased by 56.43%
compared to the baseline.
Secondly, the energy mix is mainly reflected in emission factor changes. It is
assumed that the emission factors of heat, energy-intensive raw material or produce
are reduced at the same rate as electricity. It can be seen from Figure 7 that the
decrease of the emission factor will enlarge the absolute average abatement cost, since
with every unit of energy saved, less CO2 emissions are mitigated. This implies that
the absolute value becomes larger when the CO2 coefficients decrease. Most sensitive
to the energy mix change is the new energy-efficient rectifier for which the average
abatement costs increased by about 28% compared to the baseline.

Figure 7: Impacts of factors on average abatement costs of EET


Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 681
– A case study of shandong province in China

The discount rate is often used to simulate barriers to the diffusion of technology.
A higher discount rate represents barriers like information deficits, capital constraints,
capacity and knowledge constraints, or more generally bounded rationality. Figure 7
shows how the discount rate will affect the average abatement cost when it increases
from 10% to 15%. The higher discount rate increases the steepness of the MACC and
results in higher average costs for most technologies.
Saved costs for emission certificates will further improve the cost-effectiveness of
certain EETs if the carbon emission trading scheme is put into operation. We assume
that a carbon ETS will be running in 2015 and that the price will increase to
RMB/tCO2 in 2025 (see Table 4). The decrease in abatement costs depends directly on
the CO2 coefficients of the energy carriers saved.

6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS


Significant saving potentials are still available in the chlor-alkali sector of Shandong
Province. Despite the energy efficiency having been improved substantially in recent
years due to the quite stringent command and control energy regulation, there still
exist about 7% and 9% EEI potentials for the caustic soda production process, and
30% and 38% for the PVC production process in BAU and the speeded scenario in
2025 respectively.
The gap of EEI potential between the BAU scenario and the speeded scenario is
relatively small. This may imply that these technologies will be implemented even
without further policy support. But in fact, the main reason for the small difference is
that quite strict command and control energy policies are imposed on Chlor-Alkali
plants, which are considered in the BAU scenario. There are few potentials for this
kind of policy to improve energy efficiency in the future.
However, the difference of the relative EEI potentials between the caustic soda
process and the PVC process is quite large. The EEI potentials are higher in the PVC
production process, while the EEI potentials are lower in the caustic soda production.
The main reason is that there exists a large heat recovery potential from exothermic
processes in monomer synthesis and polymerization synthesis. Additionally, the
adoption of material efficiency technologies can also bring considerable indirect
energy savings potentials in the process.
The lower (relative) EEI potential in the caustic soda process could be due to two
reasons. First, the bipolar membrane electrolysis (BME) has already been used in the
brine electrolysis step. Secondly, Zero-gap membrane electrolysis cells with oxygen-
depolarized cathodes (ZGMODC), the EET with the highest savings, and the market
shares are low even in the speeded diffusion scenario in 2025. It is very likely that the
high share of energy costs in caustic soda production has already driven energy
efficiency in the past and less room for improvement remains.
The most influential technologies lie in the brine electrolysis step and heat recovery
technology in the Vinyl Chloride Monomer synthesis (VCM) step with a contribution
of about 38% and 29% of the total respectively. For individual EET, ZGMODC tops
the list with a contribution about 30% of the total and the VCM synthesis reaction heat
recovery follows with a contribution of about 22%.
The energy savings can be translated into mitigated CO2 emissions of 10 Mt/a. The
682 Energy & Environment · Vol. 25, No. 3&4, 2014

larger part of this potential is found to be cost-effective from a firm’s perspective.


Assuming constant energy prices and CO2 coefficients, the total cost-effective
mitigation potential is about 8 Mt CO2 up to 2025, which shows that energy efficiency
can substantially contribute to reduce CO2 emissions – even at negative costs.
ZGMODC has the largest CO2 mitigation potential of about 5.4 Mt CO2 in 2025
and also shows negative average abatement costs. However, it is currently still under
R&D and market success is uncertain. Consequently, policies supporting this EET
should focus on R&D and market introduction.
We further investigate the impact of some key factors, such as energy price change,
energy mix change, launching an emission trading scheme, and the discount rate used
on the average abatement cost. For example, including a CO2 certificate price will
improve the cost-effectiveness of most EETs, although with the assumed 50
RMB/tCO2 in 2025 the effect is relatively low. For example the technology with the
highest saving potential, ZGMODC, experiences an improvement in the cost-
effectiveness of close to 10% compared to the baseline. It can be doubted if this
additional incentive will drive the market introduction of this technology. In order to
have a substantial effect on the investment decision of companies, higher certificate
prices would be necessary in future.
Regarding the approach used, some special notes should be given here. First, the
system boundaries in this paper are limited to process-specific technologies. Thus, in
reality the EEI potential will be higher than included in the model in this paper,
because more technologies are available.
Second, we only investigate heat recovery in hydrogen chloride and the VCM
synthesis step in this paper. Indeed, there are large amounts of low-quality heat of
reaction to be recycled in the PVC synthesis process. These heat recovery options are
constrained by the existing technologies. If these heat losses could be recycled
effectively, the total EEI would be even higher.
Third, some options exist for abating CO2 emissions with a good cost-
effectiveness. For example, carbide, a by-product of the acetylene gas generation
process, could be used to absorb CO2 in boiler flue gas generated by Combined Heat
and Power at a low cost. However, we cannot study these technologies at present for
lack of engineering and technical information about them. The mandatory obligation
on Shandong Chlor-Alkali plants is to reduce energy consumption instead of CO2
emissions at present.
Finally, the substantial heterogeneity of producers cannot be taken into the
technology-specific bottom-up model to evaluate the EEI potentials, which may affect
the results in this paper. Thus, while the general conclusions based on the results are
robust, the average values used might differ substantially in individual firms.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.
71303126. The CAS Strategic Priority Research Program under No. XDA05150700,
and the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 71210005, No.
71273253, and No. 71133005 are acknowledged. The authors would also like to
express their thanks for the support from Shandong Natural Science Foundation under
Energy efficiency Potentials in the Chlor-Alkali sector 683
– A case study of shandong province in China

Grant No. 2013ZRB01746 and the Talent Research Fund in QUST. Many thanks are
given to Shandong Province Chlor-Alkali Industry Associations (SDCIA) for their
assistance and support during the survey and interviews. We further appreciated the
weekly seminars at CEEP in CAS, where the earlier draft of the paper was improved.
Finally we would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments
as well as Vanessa Dolbé-Raffler for the English correction of this paper.

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