Introduction:

Global warming refers to the continuous increase of the Earth’s climate system. It is going to be
one of the biggest environmental and humanitarian crises in the very foreseeable future. A lot of
reasons are responsible for global warming. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) of the United Nations reported with more than 90% certainty that man-made
generation of CO2 is the primary cause of global warming. In 2013, the IPCC concluded that the
largest driver of global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion,
cement production, and land use changes such as deforestation. Tropical deforestation is
another major contributor to global warming. When these forests are burned, they release huge
amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and the forests no longer available to absorb CO2.
Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of
global warming and climate change. This is due to its unique geographic location, dominance of
floodplains, low elevation from the sea, high population density, high levels of poverty, and
overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services.
The country has a history of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past
development gains. Variability in rainfall pattern, combined with increased snow melt from the
Himalayas, and temperature extremes are resulting in crop damage and failure, preventing
farmers and those dependent from meaningful earning opportunities. In a changing climate the
pattern of impacts is eroding our assets, investment and future. This stands for families,
communities and the state.
The current and expected effects of climate change differ locally, nationally and regionally. The
impacts of climate change effects on livelihoods, food and water security, ecosystems,
infrastructure etc. differ per country and region as well as community and individual, with gender
a particularly important vulnerability factor.
Bangladesh faces significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. Often cited
as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Bangladesh’s topography and
geographical location make it particularly susceptible to extreme weather events including
cyclones, floods and storm surges.
Global warming and climate change threatens settlements and the number of people displaced
from their land due to riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise which are
increasing rapidly every year.
Resources and efforts of government and people are quickly drained addressing the impact of
one event when another hazard strikes. Impacts of global warming and climate change have the
potential to challenge our development efforts, human security and the future.
Its vulnerability is caused not only by its biophysical factors (being a flat, low, delta country
exposed to flooding and cyclones), but also its socio-economic factors (such as high dependence
on agriculture, population density, and poverty).
Hotspots of climate change vulnerability, where both biophysical and socio-economic
vulnerability are high, are in the central and western coastal area, the north-western highlands,
and along the main rivers.

Biophysical Vulnerability:
Bangladesh has a unique geography, situated on the Bay of Bengal and forming one of the largest
deltas in the world with a dense network of tributaries of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna
(GBM) Rivers. Most of the country is less than 10 m above sea level (and 10% is less than 1 m).
Bangladesh has a monsoon-type climate. It has three seasons:
hot, humid summers (March-June) with average maximum temperatures of 37 °C and relatively
little rainfall and often drought
cooler monsoon seasons (June-September) with heavy rainfall frequently resulting in flooding for
up to two-thirds of the country
dry, cooler winters (October-February) with average maximum temperatures of 28 °C.
The highest temperatures are in the southwest, the lowest in the northeast of the country. The
average temperature ranges between 13 and 26 degrees °C during the cool season and 25 to 31
°C during the hot season.
Rainfall in Bangladesh also differs per season and per location. The central west receives the least,
less than 1,400 mm per year, while the northeast and southeast receive over 3,000 mm per year.
About 80% of all precipitation falls during the monsoon season, in heavy, torrential rains.
Due to its topography and climate, Bangladesh is subject to devastating cyclones, mostly in April-
May and September- November. UNDP has ranked Bangladesh first of all countries in the world
in terms of vulnerability to tropical cyclones. The country is hit by a severe cyclone on average
every three years.
Bangladesh is also vulnerable to flooding, with 80% of its surface forming a giant floodplain.
Floods originate from precipitation in the whole of the GBM Basin, not just the 7% that lies within
Bangladesh, and can therefore be of great magnitude.
Almost every year floods occur in July and August. In an average year, about 25% of the country
is inundated. During severe floods, occurring every 4-5 years, over 60% of the country is covered.
These floods have devastating effects.
Riverbank erosion results in the loss of thousands of hectares of agricultural lands and affects the
population for decades. Moreover, floods contribute to further salinization of coastal lands,
causing not only loss of harvests but also of productive agricultural land.
Out of 2.85 million hectares of coastal and offshore areas, about 1.2 million hectares of arable
land are already affected by varying degrees of soil salinity.
While many parts of Bangladesh suffer from widespread and common floods, other parts
experience seasonal droughts. These occur especially in the northwest of the country, and mostly
in the months leading up to the November-December rice harvest for an overview of the different
types of extreme climatic events and their distribution over the country.
Overall Ranking of Bangladesh:
Bangladesh is the 33rd most vulnerable country and the 25th least ready country, meaning that
while it is highly vulnerable it is not ready to prevent or reduce climate change effects.
Vulnerability measures the country’s exposure, sensitivity, and ability to cope with the negative
effects of climate change by considering vulnerability in six life-supporting sectors: food, water,
ecosystem service, health, human habitat and infrastructure. Readiness measures a country’s
ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions by considering economic,
governance and social readiness.
For per capita GHG emissions, Bangladesh ranks 152 out of 188 countries and contributes less
than 0.36% of global emissions. Although making only a small contribution to global emissions, it
is highly vulnerable to climate change. Bangladesh ranked sixth on Global Climate Risk Index 2017
of the countries most affected by climate change since 1995. In the widely used ND-GAIN index
(2017), Bangladesh ranks 160 out of 181 countries for climate vulnerability.

Current Climate Trends of Bangladesh:

Changes have been observed in the climate of Bangladesh. Overall, weather patterns have been
erratic and less predictable than before. Total annual rainfall for the country as a whole did not
change significantly between 1960 and 2003, although there was a significant increase in some
areas, most notably the west and northwest.
There has also been a significant increase in certain seasons, including a 3.4% increase in country-
wide rainfall during the pre-monsoon summer season and a 1.7% decrease in monsoon rainfall
for a differentiation per season for different regions.
The rainy season has become shorter, and heavy rainfall occurs within a shorter period. The cool,
dry season has also decreased in length. Average temperature shows an increasing trend,
especially during the monsoon season (June-August) at 0.07°C per decade and during early winter
(September-November) at 0.12°C per decade. According to IPCC figures (2007), higher
temperatures and erratic rainfall have in some areas contributed to wetlands drying up and
ecosystems degrading.
Under the current climatic trends, the incidence of extreme events is also changing. A significant
increase has been observed in cyclone frequency during the ‘cyclone seasons’ in November and
May. In the end of May in 2017, for example, Tropical Storm Mora made landfall in Cox’s Bazar
district, Chittagong division and affected 3.3 million people, including the already vulnerable
Rohingya refugees hosted in the area, with heavy rains in June impairing recovery.
Some regions of Bangladesh are increasingly prone to drought; a small increase in dry months
has been measured in the far northwest of the country. A relatively new phenomenon in

Bangladesh is landslides which have in recent years occurred more frequently, caused by heavy
rain events.
Significant sea level rise has been measured in Bangladesh, with 4 mm per year at Hiron Point in
the west, 6 mm per year at Char Changa in the center of the country, and even 8 mm per year at
Cox’s Bazar in the southeast. Sea level rise has been one of the factors that led to an increase in
soil salinity in Bangladesh, from 1.5 million hectares under mild salinity in 1973 to 3 million in
2007.
Lastly, glacial melt in the Himalayas – accelerated by increasing temperatures – is having effects
on many of the great river basins downstream, including the GBM Basin. Himalayan glaciers have
reduced by 21% (in area) since the 1980s and have lost about 174 gigatonnes of water between
2003 and 2009, which contributed to catastrophic floods in these basins.

Present Impact of Global Warming in Bangladesh:

Though Bangladesh contributes lowest (only 0.3%) to the amount of emission driving global
warming, it is one of the worst victim of global warming effects. The country tops the Global
Climate Risk Index, a ranking of 170 countries most vulnerable to climate change, published in
2009 and compiled by Germanwatch, an international nongovernmental organization that works
on environment and development issues.

The effects of global warming leads to climate change in various aspects. Though all the climate
change aspects are related to each other, they are described below separately.

1. Rise of Temperature
Now global warming is not any more a hypothetical issue. It is an issue which can be visualized
all around. Due to rapid industrialization, green houses gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxides, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) have been increased significantly over the last
century. Scientists have predicted that the world will experience an average temperature rise of
20C in the next decades.
According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh has experienced an
average temperature rise of 0.60 C over the last 100 years and the Dhaka city, the capital has got
an increase of 20C during the same period. According to the research in Bangladesh University of
Engineering and Technology (BUET), 65% of Dhaka city has a temperature 3-50C higher than the
average temperature in Dhaka.
Some of these areas have seen a temperature rise of 60C over a period of about 24 years. This
year in 2014 (24 April), Dhaka has the highest temperature of 40.20C in the last 54 years. This
temperature is about 80C above the usual maximum temperature in Dhaka in April. The main
reasons for this unusual temperature rise in Dhaka are the unplanned urbanization, excessive
population density, and the increase of cars, and public transports in the city.
Also the use of fridges and air conditioners used by the dense city dwellers make a huge amount
of HFCs (hydrofluocarbons) contribution to the air, which destroys the protective ozone layer of
the Earth. These gases are more dangerous than CO2 as they have a heat trapping capability of
1600 times larger than CO2. This year in 2014, the intolerable temperature rise caused many of
the city dwellers of Dhaka to install air conditioners in their apartments. Air conditioners require
too much electricity, the generation of which by conventional methods will emit more CO2 in the
atmosphere heating up the environment even more. So the city is heating up in cyclic way.

2. Sea-Level Rise and Inundation of Low-Lying Lands

Recently, European Research Agency has revealed their research on ice melting in the Antarctica.
In those revelations, they have found that the current rate of melting of the ice in the Western
Antarctica is two times greater than what was 4 years before. The research finds that the Western
Antarctica is losing 159 billion tons of ice per year which may increase the sea-level by 0.5 mm
per year.
According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report published recently, the sea-level of the Bay of
Bengal is rising at a rate of 1.5 mm per year. Bangladesh with the Bay of Bengal on the South will
be directly affected by the sea-level rise because of its low elevation. If the sea-level rises by 45
cm, a permanent loss of up to 15600 square kilometers of land is expected.
If one-meter rise happens, around 14000-30,000 sq. km land are expected to be flooded, which
means more than 20% of Bangladesh will be under water. Scientists predict that rising sea-levels
to submerge 17 percent of Bangladesh's land area will displace 18 million people in the next 40
years by 2050.

3. Frequent Storms and Floods

Scientists believe that rising temperatures will lead to more extreme weather worldwide,
including stronger and more frequent cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. And rising seas will make any
storm more dangerous because flooding will become more likely to accompany.
Bangladesh is particularly at risk because the country, with its low elevation, is crisscrossed by as
many as 230 rivers, many of which unstably swell during the monsoon rains. According to data
from the government’s Centre for Environmental and Geographic Information Systems (CEGIS),
two-thirds of the country is only five meters above sea-level.
This geology, along with river water from the melting Himalayan glaciers in the north caused by
the temperature rise, makes the region more vulnerable to severe flooding. The situation is
worsened by the prevalence of intense storms, a marker of climate stresses. Sidr, the Category 4
cyclone that ravaged southern Bangladesh in November 2007, killed some 3,500 people,
displaced 2 million, and wiped out paddy fields. Sidr was followed by two heavier-than-normal
floods that killed some 1,500 people and damaged about 2 million tons of food.
 4. Salinity of Ground Water
With the rise of seal level, the saline sea water from the Bay of Bengal intrudes to the farmlands,
which jeopardizes the food output in Bangladesh. Particularly, rice production is significantly
affected by this saline water. A 2007 report by the IPCC estimates that the production of staple
foods could drop steeply by 2050 because of soil salinity.
This would be devastating in a country where agriculture is the key economic driver with around
65% of the total population being employed in agriculture. This sector accounts for about 22
percent of the nation's economic output, with an additional 33 percent derived from the rural
non-farm economy, which is also linked to agriculture, according to the World Bank. Moreover,
the salinity intrusion is gradually destroying the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the
world.

5. Effects on Agriculture and Fisheries

The three cropping seasons in Bangladesh namely Rabi, Kharif-I, Kharif-II may be negatively
affected by the climate change effects. Due to drought and lowering of ground water, irrigation
will be obstructed as the largest demand for surface and ground water is to support the irrigation
of crops in dry months. Increase in temperature may rise the irrigation demands to 200 Mm 3 in
the month of March alone. Moreover, flooding causes a loss of arable lands causing a drop in the
crop yield.
The IPCC estimates that Central and South Asia can expect a 30 percent drop in yield by 2050.
Bangladesh is a land of rivers. Being so, fish is a part of their daily meals and many people in the
coastal areas have undertaken fishing as their livelihood. Fisheries sector contribute to 3-5% of
the GDP of the country.
Global warming will also affect the fisheries of the country. Since the solubility of oxygen in water
decreases with increasing temperature, it could be a problem for fisheries. Also the reduced river
flowing during the dry season worsens the problem. Besides, freshwater fishes will face a survival
problem in the south western part of Bangladesh because of increased salinity from sea-level
rise.

6. Health Hazards

Global warming has significant effects on human health. Mosquito-borne diseases like malaria
can be a threat because of warmer weather. Infectious disease like dengue fever caused by
dengue virus can be another consequence of warmer weather.
According to ICDDR,B (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research), climate change will
make the people of Bangladesh more vulnerable to disease like Cholera, dengue, cardiovascular
and respiratory disease, and malnutrition because of reduction of food production.
This year in April (2014), there were a serious heat waves in the country that triggered illness,
mainly viral infections and gastro-enteric disorders. Climate change has also an impact on mental
health.
According to American Psychologist Clayton & Doherty, global climate change has substantial
negative impacts on mental health and well-being. Main victims are the vulnerable populations
and those with pre-existing serious mental illness. Apart from the above stated consequences of
global warming Bangladesh may face a lot of climate abnormalities like unpredictable weather
pattern, seasonal irregularities, food and water insecurity etc.

Future Impacts of Global Warming:

Future climate change projections for Bangladesh are less ambiguous than for many other
countries: there is agreement among most models that both temperatures and rainfall will
increase significantly. Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 1.8°C by the
2060s and 2.7°C by the 2090s (compared to 2010), although some projections suggest increases
up to 4.1°C for the 90s (compared to the 1970-2000 mean).
The largest increase is projected for the dry winter season, where a temperature increase of 4.1°C
may occur by the 2070s. Southern regions are likely to have a somewhat smaller increase than
northern regions: the latter may, in the most extreme scenarios, experience an increase of 5.3°C
by the 2090s, relative to the 1970-2000 mean climate.
All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are
considered ‘hot’ in the current climate. Annually, projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur
on 17–39% of days by the 2060s.
Bangladesh is expected to be 4% wetter by the 2050s. By the 2090s, mean annual rainfall is
projected to increase by on average 7% compared to the 1970-2000 mean climate (although
some models project increases up to 24%). Regionally, this increase is expected to be higher in
the north and northwest, and lower in the south of the country.
The highest increases will take place in the monsoon season (on average 14% by the 2090s) and
the post-monsoon season (September-November; 17% by the 2070s). For the dry winter season,
projections are mixed – with some models projecting rainfall decreases and others projecting
increases of about 10% by the 2070s. Large increases are expected in 5-day rainfall maxima,
especially during the wet season, and an increasing portion of total rainfall will fall during ‘heavy
rainfall events’ indicating a rainfall pattern with more extremes.
Extreme events in Bangladesh, such as cyclones and floods, will be both heavier and more
frequent. Floods will not only be more frequent and cover a larger area of land, but inundation
depth will also increase significantly in most of the country. In some parts of the northwest
seasonal droughts may become heavier due to erratic rainfall and delayed monsoons.
The sea level will also rise further. The IPCC projected increases of 14 cm by 2030, 32 cm by 2050,
and 88 cm by 2100 (compared to 2000). Relative sea level rise in Bangladesh is greater than in
many other countries, due to the simultaneous submergence of low coastal areas. This will affect
a large number of people: by 2050, about 27 million will be at risk due to the effects of sea level
rise.
A 1-meter sea level rise would inundate 18% of the country’s land. Moreover, sea level rise and
cyclones have combined effects: cyclone-induced storm surges are projected to inundate an
additional 15% of the coastal area.
For glacial melt in the Himalayas, the future is highly uncertain; projections of the rate and effects
of melting are lacking. However, the already reported rate of current melting combined with
findings that the rate of glacial retreat is accelerating over time give reason to expect major
effects in the future.

Preparation of Bangladesh to Face the Impact of Global Warming:

The preparation of Bangladesh to face the challenges of global warming, though not enough,
cannot be overlooked. It has gone a long way to protect its people by developing an early-warning
system and building at least 2,500 concrete storm shelters. This has resulted in a vast reduction
in storm related deaths.
The country has so far invested more than US$ 1, 50,000 to reduce vulnerability to natural
disasters by building embankments and cyclone shelters and creating a storm early-warning
system. But billions more are needed to build similar infrastructure in the next 15 years to
mitigate the threats, along with enhancing research on climate-resistant agriculture.
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) is working to devise salt-tolerant strains of food crops,
especially rice. Scientists from BRRI are also striving to breed Saltol—agene on the rice
chromosome that confers salinity tolerance at the seedling stage—into different varieties of rice.
The institute is also developing water management technology to capture fresh water during the
monsoon, when soil salinity is less prevalent.
This stored fresh water can be used for irrigating rice during the dry season. Adaptation initiatives
are visible in the community level to fight the growing of crops in the flood prone areas. One
example of this adaptation activity is the ‘floating bed agriculture,’ where crops and vegetables
can be grown on floating platforms during inundation of land. Reducing Vulnerability to Climate
Change (RVCC) was the first project of its kind on Community Based Adaptation (CBA) to climate
change.
The GoB is appealing for more aid from the industrialized countries that are the largest emitters
of greenhouse gases and are responsible for global warming, to help Bangladesh adapt and avoid
calamity. With the help of the development partners and World Bank, the Government of
Bangladesh (GoB) established Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) in May, 2010.
This fund is enabling the GoB to channel in over US$ 188 million to millions of Bangladeshis to
fight the effects of climate change.
GoB has another fund called the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund in order to address the
climate change effects. It has allocated US$ 350 million from its own resources for the last five
years consecutively from 2009 to 2013. The GoB is also trying to introduce clean energy sources
instead of conventional sources that are responsible for emitting GHGs. It has already targeted a
5% of the total electricity generation from renewable sources by 2015 of which 500 MW will be
from solar.
Along with this, the GoB has undertaken a major project of generating electricity by nuclear
energy at Ruppur. This will contribute significantly to the reduction of carbon emission to the
atmosphere.
In this regard, the following measures are recommended to reduce the carbon emission in the
country’s atmosphere:
1. Carbon emitting activities should be discouraged. The GoB can do this by increasing the
tax for the companies emitting carbons to the atmosphere. This tax should be
proportionate to the amount of carbon emitted by that company.
2. Air conditioners (ACs) should not be allowed as an appliance of luxury. For this, residential
buildings should not be allowed for installing ACs.
3. Illegal deforestation should be severely deal with. Strict laws should be passed in the
parliament with the provision of punishment and restitution for illegal cutting of trees. In
Dhaka city, trees can be grown on the building tops.
4. Cars driven by renewable energy sources should be introduced.
5. The GoB should reduce duty on the import of all the energy efficient products. For an
example, the price of the energy efficient bulbs like LED bulbs, CFL bulbs should be
lowered.
6. Alternative power sources like solar power should be introduced extensively instead of
conventional power sources. Bangladesh has a 724 km long coast line and many small
islands in the Bay of Bengal, which have potential for wind energy generation. Bangladesh
has also potential for harnessing ocean wave energy from the Bay of Bengal.

Conclusion:
This assignment has discussed the effects of global warming on Bangladesh and its initiatives to
mitigate changes. Bangladesh received the climate change initiative award ‘Lighthouse Activities
2013’ for its outstanding contribution to climate change adaptation. It has shown its urgency to
move towards the green sources of energy. About 2,677,896 solar home systems (SHS) s have
already been installed by the end of November 2013, which mainly covered rural areas.
The GoB has taken different initiatives to face the challenges of the global warming. Becoming a
developing country, it cannot manage the required funds for this. The developed countries of the
world should come forward to help the poor countries in this respect. Moreover, NGOs, the GoB
and the civil society should act together to raise awareness among the mass people about global
warming, its mitigation and adaptation techniques.
References:
a) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
b) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Climate Change-Greenhouse Gas Emissions,”
2011 Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks prepared by EPA for the years
1990 through 2009.
c) Gore, The Inconvenient Truth, Directed by Davis Guggenheim, 2006.
d) EPRI Discussion Paper, ‘‘The power to reduce CO2 emissions—The full portfolio,’’ EPRI
Energy Technology Assessment Center, Aug., 2007.
e) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
f) http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/global_warming_101
g) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse
h) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
i) http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/03/26/how-global-warming-
threatens-millions-in-bangladesh
j) http://www.prothom-alo.com/bangladesh/article/203719/
k) http://www.prothom-alo.com/bangladesh/article/201178/
l) http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-climategasesidUSTRE7AK0GO20111121
m) http://news.heartland.org/newspaperarticle/2013/07/23/global-warming-
alarmistsseek-restrict-airconditioning
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indirectlycontribute-to-global-warming/
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"Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat- Geophysical Research
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Consequences”, Germanwatch, 2004
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bangladeshconfronts-the-consequences-of-climatechange.html?_r=0
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with Degrees of Global warming”, Asian Journal of Applied Science and Engineering, Vol.
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13-11-07
 An Assignment
On
The Consequences of Global Warming &
Probable Measures to Get Rid from This:
Context of Bangladesh.

Submitted to,
Laila Haseen
Associate Professor
Department of Economics
Jahangirnagar University.

Submitted by,
Tanvir Sadik
MA in Economics
Batch: 02
ID No: 20181124

Date of Submission: 8th February 2018.