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Key findings from the World Energy Outlook
18th Caspian Oil & Gas Conference
8‐9 June 2011 ‐ Baku, Azerbaijan
Didier Houssin
Director for Energy Markets and Security
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2010
The fall & rise of Caspian energy use
Primary energy demand in the Caspian by fuel
250
Other renewables
Mtoe
Hydro
200
Nuclear
150 Gas
Oil
100 Coal
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Robust economic growth – spurred in large part by rising hydrocarbons production –
pushes up energy use , with only a marginal change in the primary energy mix
© OECD/IEA 2010
Region has huge potential to use
energy more efficiently
Energy savings potential in selected Caspian countries, 2008
80 Potential energy
Mtoe
70 savings
60
50 Efficient energy
consumption
40
(OECD
30 equivalent)
20
10
0
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Were the region to use energy as efficiently as OECD countries, Caspian primary energy use
would be cut by half ‐ even allowing for climate & structural economic factors
© OECD/IEA 2010
Meeting projected electricity needs
will require major investments
Cumulative power sector investment in the Caspian
by country and type, 2010‐2035
Coal
Kazakhstan
Gas
Uzbekistan
Nuclear
Turkmenistan
Hydro
Azerbaijan Other renewables
The Caspian power sector requires $152 billion of investment in 2010‐2035; investment in
generation ($72 billion) split between gas‐fired capacity (36%), coal (30%) and hydro (18%)
© OECD/IEA 2010
Azerbaijan completes the switch
from oil to gas for power
Electricity generation in Azerbaijan by fuel
30 Other renewables
TWh
Biomass
25
Hydro
20 Gas
15 Oil
10
0
1990 2000 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Share of gas in total electricity output rises to 93% in 2035 – from zero in 1990.
Share of non‐hydro renewables remains marginal
© OECD/IEA 2010
Caspian energy riches could enhance
global energy security
Caspian oil & gas balances
6 350
bcm
mb/d
5 300
250
4
200
3
150
2
100
1
50
0 0
2000 2009 2020 2035 2000 2009 2020 2035
Oil net exports Inland oil consumption Gas net exports Inland gas consumption
Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while
Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm
© OECD/IEA 2010
New discoveries mitigate decline
in Azerbaijan output after 2015
Azerbaijan’s oil balance
1.2 Production
Consumption
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production is set to plateau within the next few years, declining gradually after 2020 to
0.9 mb/d in 2035, as new discoveries & EOR mitigate a drop in output at existing fields
© OECD/IEA 2010
Azeri gas exports poised for take‐off
Azerbaijan’s natural gas balance
60
bcm
Net trade
50 Production
Consumption
40
30
20
10
- 10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Phase II of Shah Deniz field development boosts output to 36 bcm by 2020 & other fields
drive output upwards to 50 bcm in 2035, with most of the increase going to export
© OECD/IEA 2010
Expanding supply along a southern
corridor to European markets
Transparent transportation arrangements will be essential to pave the way
for an increase in Caspian exports to Turkey and other European markets
© OECD/IEA 2010
Caspian gas claims a share of European
and Chinese markets
Caspian share of natural gas markets
in OECD Europe and China
20%
Market share of Caspian gas
16%
12%
8%
OECD Europe
4%
China
0%
2009 2020 2035
Supplies from the Caspian provide a valuable source of gas market diversity in Europe –
particularly southeast and central Europe – and in China
© OECD/IEA 2010
Caspian summary & conclusions
Ample reserves and an emerging diversity of export markets
underpin the Caspian region's potential contribution to global
oil & gas security
But there are a number of factors that are expected to constrain
the expansion of oil and natural gas supply, including:
> Sheer scale of the investments needed
> Complexities of financing and constructing transportation
infrastructure across multiple borders
> Uncertainties in some countries over the investment climate and
quality of governance
> Competition from other resources and uncertainties over export
demand for natural gas
© OECD/IEA 2010