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A muddled regulatory vision of New India, high public spend, over-zealous tax officials, imposition of price controls on various sectors,
overdue and delayed reimbursements from government to companies is making Corporate India, hesitant to commit new capital for
growth. Economic downturns are usually great entry points from an investment perspective to generate above normal returns over
the medium term. We are focused on maintaining a portfolio where its top line growth is higher versus sectoral growth, and flowing
down to higher than benchmark profit growth, which would translate into higher vs. benchmark returns to the long-term investor.
Asian Paints, India’s largest paint manufacturer, was up 6.3% in August on the back of market share gain from un-organised players.
During the quarter, gross margin expanded by 30 bp to 43.5% led by price hikes and moderation in raw material prices. SBI Life
Insurance, was up 5.2%, on increasing protection business leading to better VNB Margins. RVNL, a Miniratna company under Ministry
of Railways, was up 5.6% on better than expected results on the back higher execution. Among the weaker performers, LIC Housing
Finance, was down 13.5%, as its NIMs missed estimates by 19bp at 2.35%, and GNPA missed estimates by 43bp to 1.98%, leading
to PCR at 44.9%, down 470bp. The company is trading close to its trough and we continue to monitor the situation.
Portfolio Outlook:
The current economic slowdown is likely to lead to earnings cut for benchmark indexes from 20-23% to 10-12% for FY20 and a revival
in FY21. The debate that been doing the rounds of whether the contracting economic statistics, such PMI, consumer confidence, new
capital formation indicate whether India is going through a cyclical downswing, or a structural slowdown. Each requires a different
policy response. A cyclical downswing will need monetary and fiscal actions, but a structural slowdown will need deep reforms such
as, trying to phase out automobiles powered by fuels to focus intensely on electric vehicles, ahead of time when enabling technical
capabilities on a commercial scale do not exist with the global automotive industry for electric vehicles.
A structural decline is evidenced in one or few related sectors, and is usually not a broad-based weakness that we are seeing across
disparate sectors such as falling manufacturing, lower hotel occupancies, weak auto sales, anaemic freight and construction activity.
A concerted effort to revive private capex, higher government spend on infrastructure, and ease of doing business would revive
economic and GDP growth. We believe this is a cyclical downturn as evidenced by this broad-based weakness. The portfolio is well
placed for the economy to turn up and to improve its outperformance. We sidestepped the volatility with alacrity. Primario, as a premier
corporate capitalization fund invests in 30-50 companies which require growth or turnaround capital across sectors. The fund’s
investments are on track to deliver potentially strong CAGR returns over the three and half years life of the fund, as the capital infusion
translates into strong company balance sheets and therefore higher investment returns. The institutional placement pipeline is very
strong at Rs. 72,000 crores and is set to resume as market stability returns.
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of liquidity, which are characteristics of the investments described herein. In making an investment decision, investors must rely on their own examination of the Fund documents and the terms of
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its own tax advisor with respect to specific tax consequences arising due to the investment in the Fund. SEBI Registration details IN/AIF3/17-18/0324