ISIJ International, Vol.

56 (2016),
ISIJ International,
No. 12 Vol. 56 (2016), No. 12, pp. 2113–2117

Bed Permeability State Prediction Model of Sintering Process

Based on Data Mining Technology

Xiaoxian HUANG, Xiaohui FAN,* Xuling CHEN, Guiming YANG and Min GAN

School of Minerals Processing and Bioengineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, 410083 China.
(Received on April 1, 2016; accepted on August 4, 2016)

The bed permeability state prediction model of sintering process based on data mining technology was
proposed in this study. Firstly, the sintering production data were analyzed by fuzzy clustering algorithm,
to make a comprehensive evaluation of the bed permeability state. Then the prediction model of bed
permeability state was established via support vector machine, based on the sample data that obtained
in the cluster analysis. The bed permeability prediction model has a good learning and generalization abil-
ity, its prediction hit rate reached 87.5%. The practical application showed that: the sintering process could
be stabilize effectively, since the operation parameters was adjusted according to the prediction results of
bed permeability state; the standard deviation of burn through temperature and burn through point was
decreased by 47% and 34% respectively.

KEY WORDS: iron ores sintering; bed permeability; prediction model; data mining.

original material bed or granulation of single iron ore.

1. Introduction
Iron ore sintering is a complex industrial process, which
involves a large number of physical parameters such as
temperature, pressure, velocity and flow. It also referred
to many issues like the gas distribution in the material bed
and the temperature field distribution.1) The sintering pro-
cess state is the major factor affecting the sinter quality and
yield indices, it mainly includes the thermal state and bed
permeability state. Since the temperature data of sintering
process are relatively easy to obtain, thermal state has been
extensively studied. The typical evaluation methods of bed
permeability like Ergun formula and Voice formula are lim-
ited in the practical application,2,3) because the online mea-
surements of their variables are difficulty and inaccuracy. In
the Operation Guidance System that developed by Japan’s
Kawasaki Steel Corporation in 1980s,4) the bed permeability
state was evaluated with a three-dimensional matrix which
including the air flow of main exhaust fan, the maximum
temperature of wind box and the burn through point (BTP).
Bo Jiang et al.5,6) established a comprehensive evaluation
model of bed permeability state via fuzzy logic method,
in which the bed permeability was evaluated through the
parameters of raw materials, operating parameters and
process state parameters. But this model almost considered
all factors related with bed permeability, it had the problem
that some variables cannot be detected in continuous in the
practical application. In addition, some researchers7,8) estab-
lished the bed permeability prediction model that considered
the parameters such as particle size distribution, air velocity
and chemical composition, but it is only suitable for the
* Corresponding author: E-mail: csufanxiaohui@126.com
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2355/isijinternational.ISIJINT-2016-193
Data mining is a technology to discovery the relationship
between the pattern, knowledge and data. At present, data
mining is the research and application focus of telecom-
munications, banking, transportation, retail and other com-
mercial areas, and it also has the technology advantage in
biology, astronomy and other scientific research fields.9–12)
In sintering production, engineers or operators usually adjust
the production parameters according to the bed permeability
state, which is evaluated through current operating param-
eters and thermal state. Therefore the large amount of sin-
tering production data contained the relevant information of
bed permeability. In this study, the data mining technology
was used to analysis the sintering production data, and the
clustering and classification models were established. It will
play an important role in guiding the sintering production.
2. Model Structure and Modeling Method
The bed permeability state of sintering process is dif-
ficult to measure directly, and the Ergun formula or Voice
formula cannot be used in practical application due to the
inaccurate measurement of related variables. However, the
permeability state determines the vertical sintering speed of
material bed, then effect the highest temperature of waste
gas and its position in the moving direction of sintering
pallet, which calls the burn through temperature and burn
through point. Meanwhile, the permeability state determines
the adjustment of moving speed of sintering pallet or air
quantity below the material bed. In other words, the burn
through temperature, burn through point and pallet speed or
air quantity can reflect the bed permeability state. Since the
bed permeability state is mainly influenced by the physical
and chemical properties of raw materials, the moisture con-

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 ISIJ International, Vol. 56 (2016), No. 12
tent and coke breeze ratio of mixture, the way of granulation
and distributing. It means that the permeability state can be
predicted by the variables such as mixture size, moisture
of mixture, coke breeze ratio, mixture temperature, bed
height, negative pressure of ignition furnace and No.1 wind
box. The relationship between bed permeability state and
other sintering parameters is shown in Fig. 1. Where, the
mixture size is the average particle size of mixture, and it
is calculation results according to the size composition and
proportion of raw materials; the moisture of mixture refers
to the water content of mixture after mixing and granulating;
the coke breeze ratio refers to the proportion of coke breeze
in the mixture; the mixture temperature is the temperature of
mixture after steam preheating; the bed height is the height
of mixture bed on the sintering pallet before ignition; the
negative pressure of ignition furnace and No.1 wind box
refers to the pressure values that detected in the ignition
furnace and No.1 wind box.
Clustering and classification are both commonly used
data mining methods. Clustering is to divide a data set into
different classes or clusters according to a particular stan-
dard, and fuzzy clustering is to determine the degree of each
data belonging to each cluster via membership function.
Classification is a supervised learning method, which is to
find the classification rules by training the data sets that has
known classes, and to predict the class of new data. Support
vector machine (SVM) is a classification algorithm, and a
new kind of machine learning method which is based on the
structure risk minimization principle of statistical learning
theory. SVM can solve the problem of high dimensional and
local optimal, and has good learning ability and generaliza-
tion ability. In this study, the fuzzy clustering was used to
analyze the variables that can reflect the bed permeability
state in sintering process, to realize the comprehensive
evaluation of permeability state, and the SVM was used
to establish the prediction model of bed permeability state.
3. Modeling
3.1. Evaluation of Bed Permeability State
For the sample data set X = {x1, x2,…, xn} that extracted from
Fig. 1. The relationship between bed permeability state and other sintering parameters.
© 2016 ISIJ
the sintering production, xk(k = 1,2,…,n) is a 3-dimensional
vector, each feature value represents the burn through point,
burn through temperature and air quantity respectively.
The data set X is divided into 5 clusters, V = {v1,v2,…, v5},
and vi(i = 1,2,…,5) is the center of each cluster. The fuzzy
membership function µik ∈( 0,1) is used to describe the
membership degree between sample data xk and cluster cen-
ter vi. Fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCM) is using
iterative optimization method that based on the least square
principle to divide the data set. The expression of objective
function Jm is as follows:
5 n
J m (U ,V ) = ∑ ∑ µikm dik2 ....................... (1)
i =1 k =1
Where, dik = xk − vi is represent the Euclidean distance of
sample data xk and cluster center vi; m(m > 1) is a weighted
index, which is used to adjust the degree of membership
degree in different fuzzy cluster. The sum of all the mem-
bership degree of any one sample data for every cluster must
be 100%, as follows
5
∑ µik = 1, ∀k = 1, 2, n ....................... (2)
i =1
Using Lagrange multiplication to solve the optimization
problem of minimizing the objective function Jm under
above constrains. The fuzzy membership function μik and
cluster center vi can be written as
1
µik = 2
, ∀i = 1, 2,, 5; ∀k = 1, 2,, n
5
 dik  m −1 .... (3)
∑  d jk 
j =1
n
∑ µikm xk
vi = k =1
n
, ∀i = 1, 2,, 5 .................... (4)
∑µ m
ik
k =1
The optimal fuzzy classification matrix and cluster
centers are obtained through iterative algorithm according
to formula (3) and formula (4), and finally complete the
fuzzy clustering division. In addition, considering the FCM
algorithm is a local search algorithm essentially. It is very
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 ISIJ International, Vol. 56 (2016), No. 12

sensitive to the initial value of cluster center, and easy to fall onto the 2-dimensional plane, and the different clusters were
into local minimum point. Therefore, the genetic algorithm, marked in different colors and shapes. It can be seen that
which has the strong global search ability, was introduced the fuzzy clustering algorithm can divide the sintering data
to search the whole state space in this study, which made set into several cluster effectively. Fuzzy clustering model is
the individual get rid of the local optimal solution. The an effective method to evaluate the bed permeability state,
algorithm flow as illustrated in Fig. 2. In this algorithm, the and it can provide important data for establish the predic-
genetic algorithm is used to optimize the cluster center. So tion model.
in the population initialization process, the cluster centers
are randomly initialized according to the population size. 3.2. Prediction of Bed Permeability State
The algorithm evaluates the individual by the objective The sample data set {(xi,yi), i = 1,2,…,N} can be set up
function of fuzzy C-means clustering, that the fitness func- by combining the fuzzy clustering results of bed perme-
tion can be expressed by formula (1). The iterative process ability and sintering production data, where xi is the input
is to do the genetic operations included selection, crossover parameters, and yi is the output parameter. xi is a 7-dimen-
and mutation, to find the best cluster center and optimized sional vector, each feature value represents the mixture
the objective function of fuzzy C-means clustering. size, moisture of mixture, coke breeze ratio, bed height,
The sample data of clustering were selected from the his- mixture temperature, negative pressure of ignition furnace
torical data of sintering production of Steel Corp. in China, and No.1 wind box; yi represents the bed permeability state;
where the air quantity is represented by the frequency of N represents the total number of samples. For the nonlinear
exhaust fan. Accordingly, three feature parameters that
reflect the bed permeability state are frequency of exhaust
fan, burn through point and burn through temperature. For Table 1. The clustering centers of bed permeability state.
the fuzzy C-means clustering, the weighted index m in Bed permeability Frequency of Burn through Burn through
formula (1) is 3, and the number of iterations is 20. For state exhaust fan (Hz) point (m) temperature (K)
the genetic algorithm, the population size, which means Very good 42.84 39.26 625.15
the group number of cluster centers, is 20, the maximum
Good 43.17 39.78 597.87
generation, which means the highest number of iterations,
is 100, the crossover probability is 0.7, and the mutation Normal 43.71 38.87 647.64
probability is 0.05. After clustering analysis via above algo- Bad 44.96 39.02 626.09
rithm, the objective function Jm = 89.43, and the results of Very bad 45.77 39.45 591.24
multiple runs were very close, which means the algorithm
can converge to the global optimal point. Table 1 shows
the clustering centers, and the corresponding relationship
between each cluster and bed permeability state can be con-
firmed according to expert experience. The clustering results
as shown in Fig. 3, the 3-dimensional data set was projected

Fig. 3. The clustering results. (a) is the relationship between fre-

quency of exhaust fan and burn through point; (b) is the
Fig. 2. The flow chart of fuzzy clustering algorithm that improved relationship between frequency of exhaust fan and burn
by genetic algorithm. through temperature.

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 ISIJ International, Vol. 56 (2016), No. 12

separable cases, the input vectors are mapped to a high
dimensional feature space using the nonlinear function ϕ,
and then one optimal hyper-plane is constructed in the high
dimensional feature space:
ω T ⋅ φ ( x ) + b = 0 ............................ (5)
Taking into account that some samples cannot be cor-
rectly separated in the case of linear non-separable, the
slack variables ξi ≥ 0, i = 1,2,…, N were introduced. Finally,
the classification problem of original sample space can be
expressed as:
yi [ω T ⋅ φ ( x ) + b] ≥ 1 − ξi , i = 1, 2,, N ............. (6)
According to the principle of construction risk minimiza-
tion, the minimum risk bounds of the classification problem
can be obtained from the following optimization problem:
N is RBF kernel, and the model parameters are optimized by
1
min J (ω , ξ ) = ω T ω + c ∑ ξi .................. (7)
2 i =1
Through a series of optimization methods, such as intro-
ducing the Lagrange function, the optimization problem is
transformed into solving the maximum value of following
function, under the constraint conditions of 0 ≤ ai ≤ c and
n
∑ ai yi = 0 . Where ai is a Lagrange multiplier.
i =1
Only small parts of the solution ai of formula (9) are not
zero, and the corresponding samples xi are the support vec-
tor. Thus, the optimal classification function is as follows:
 l 
f ( x ) = sgn  ∑ ai yi K ( xi , x ) + b  .............. (10)
 i =1 
Where sgn is the symbolic function, l is the number of
support vectors, and b is the classification threshold. The
model structure is shown in Fig. 4.
The prediction model of bed permeability state was
established based on the above SVM classification algo-
rithm. According to the sintering production data and the
clustering result of bed permeability state, 700 sets of data
samples were constructed, among which 500 sets were used
as training sample, and the other 200 sets were used as test-
ing sample. The kernel function of support vector machine
cross validation method. The prediction results of the model
are shown in Fig. 5. Where, the abscissa represents sample
number, which was optionally given, and the ordinate rep-
resents bed permeability state. Each sample has an actual
state and a predict state, expressed in different colors and
shapes in this figure. When the predict state and actual state
matches, it indicates that the prediction result is correct,
otherwise it is not correct.

1 N N
Q a, φ ( xi ) = − ∑ yi y j φ ( xi ) φ ( x j ) ai a j + ∑ ai ...... (8)
T

2 i , j =1 i =1

The above optimization problem is a quadratic program-

ming problem under the inequality constraints. In order to
reduce the computational complexity, the kernel function
K(xi,xj) is introduced to replace the dot product of high
dimensional feature space. The quartic programming prob-
lem can be expressed as follows:
 1 N N

 max Q ( a , K ( xi , x j ) ) = − ∑
2 i , j =1
yi y j K ( xi , x j ) ai a j + ∑ ai
 i =1

 N
s.t. ∑ ai yi = 0 , i = 1, 2,, N
  i =1
 0 ≤ ai ≤ c
.......................................... (9)
Fig. 5. The prediction results of bed permeability state.

Fig. 4. The structure of the prediction model of bed permeability state.

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 ISIJ International, Vol. 56 (2016), No. 12

Table 2. The statistical data of burn through state.

5. Conclusions
Average Maximum Minimum Standard
Items Date (1) According to the characteristics of sintering process
value value value deviation
05:00~10:00
and the difficulty of bed permeability measurement, the bed
Burn (Manual 575 641 510 53.65 permeability state prediction model based on data mining
through control) technology was proposed in this study. This model evaluates
temperature 10:00~15:00 the bed permeability state through the clustering analysis of
(K) (Intelligent 638 656 555 28.29 historical production data, and then establishes the classifi-
control)
cation prediction model by support vector machine.
05:00~10:00 (2) The comprehensive evaluation of bed permeability
(Manual 39.35 42.81 37.32 1.25
Burn control)
state was realized through the fuzzy clustering algorithm
through that improved by genetic algorithm. The clustering results
point (m) 10:00~15:00
(Intelligent 38.72 41.56 38.74 0.83
show that this algorithm can divide the sintering data set
control) into a number of clusters clearly. The prediction model of
bed permeability state was established based on support
vector machine, it has a good learning and generalization
As can be seen from Fig. 5, there are only 25 sets of sam- ability, and its prediction hit rate reached 87.5%.
ples that the predicted state were not match with the actual (3) The practical application in sintering production
state, which means that the prediction hit rate is 87.5%. The show that the prediction model can accurately predict the
classification model of bed permeability state based on SVM bed permeability state, and realize the stable control of the
has a good learning and generalization ability. sintering process state while combined with soft sensor
model of thermal state and intelligent control model. The
standard deviation of burn through temperature and burn
4. Model Applications
through point was decreased by 47% and 34% respectively.
The bed permeability prediction model based on data
mining technology was applied to the sintering production Acknowledgements
of a Steel Crop. in China. The intelligent control system of The authors would like to thank the National Natural
sintering process was established, which combined with the Science Foundation of China (No. 51474237) and the
prediction model of bed permeability state, the soft sensor Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2013M540639) for
model of thermal state and the intelligent control model. The the support given to this research.
intelligent control system has been put into used in sinter-
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