Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Bank’s Performance
Chapter 2
Banking Regulations
-Bank runs and how to
over come it
Chapter 1 - Theories of
Financial Intermediation
-What do banks do? Chapter 3 - Risks in
Banking
Chapter 4 - Credit Risks
-Introduction to other
risks
Market
Chapter 5
ALM –Liquidity, Interest Operations
rate Risk
Solvency
1. Types of risks
a. Credit risk
b. Country risk
c. Market risk
• Measurement - VaR
d. Liquidity risk
e. Interest risk
f. Operational risk
g. Solvency risk
2. Risk management
a. Stages / process
b. Risk measurement – categories
3. Economic Capital
a. Definition
b. Measurement method
2
Prepared by Adam Wong
3
Prepared by Adam Wong
Aims
4
Prepared by Adam Wong
5
Prepared by Adam Wong
Learning Outcomes
Be able to:
• Describe and evaluate the variety and complexity of risks facing
banks.
• Illustrate and discuss the need for effective risk management tools
and systems
• Explain how to evaluate the risk of a given position using the Value
at Risk methodology.
6
Prepared by Adam Wong
Overview of Chapter 3 and Links to Other Chapters
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
Regulatory Capital
= at least 8%
RWA
8
Prepared by Adam Wong
9
Prepared by Adam Wong
Introduction
10
Prepared by Adam Wong
Balance Required
• Financial institutions that are run on the principle of avoiding all risks
will be stagnant and will not adequately service the legitimate credit
needs of the community.
Risk Profitability
Asset transformation
• Maturity mismatch
• Liquidity mismatch
1. Credit risk
2. Country risk Related
3. Market risk
Risk of loss occurring
4. Liquidity risk*
5. Interest rate risk*
6. Operational risk
7. Solvency risk
*mismatching risks
S I M LOCC
12
Prepared by Adam Wong
Other Types of Risks Not Mentioned in Study Guide
• Settlement risks - Settlement risk is the risk that one party will fail to
deliver the terms of a contract with another party at the time of
settlement.
13
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
or
3. One of the most material risk for commercial banks and it uses the
highest amount of capital.
16
Prepared by Adam Wong
Credit Risk - Impact
1. Loans 2. Investments
– Cause – Cause
• Loan not repaid, • deteriorate in credit quality or
• Payments being delayed default leading to deterioration
in a company’s credit standing
17
Prepared by Adam Wong
18
Prepared by Adam Wong
Overview of Chapter 3 and Links to Other Chapters
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
1- Selection
2-Limitation 3-Diversification
20
Prepared by Adam Wong
1 - Credit Risk Management - Selection
To ensure that the bank only lends to good borrowers with good credit quality
21
Prepared by Adam Wong
2
Safe assets
Asset Ratio
Total Assets > x% • maximum risk assets to total assets (see Chapter 2),
• minimum proportion of assets with negligible credit
risk, (such as cash and government securities)
Large Loans
Total Loans < y%
Loan Limit – maximum amount of total large loans
as a percentage to total loans.
25
Prepared by Adam Wong
PD (1-R) EAD M
Internal Risk
Foundation Bank MAS MAS MAS
Based
Approach Advanced Bank Bank Bank Bank
26
Prepared by Adam Wong
Example – DBS’ Credit Risk
• “Credit risk remains our most material risk as it incurs the highest
usage of capital.
27
Prepared by Adam Wong
28
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap 1
29
Prepared by Adam Wong
30
Prepared by Adam Wong
Country Risk – Definition
31
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Portugal
• Ireland PIIGS
• Italy
• Greece
• Spain
32
Prepared by Adam Wong
Country Risk
Country Risk
Credit risk of the Ability and willingness of borrowers within a
government country to meet their obligations
1 2
Sovereign Risk Transfer Risk
• Risk of default by a sovereign • Risk that the sovereign will be
government on its foreign currency or unable to secure foreign exchange
debt obligations to service its foreign currency debt.
Score Interpretation
(1) rated out of 100,
0 ~24.5 – Very high risk
(2) rated out of 50. The composite country risk rating 25~29.9 –High risk
(3) Sum of the three constituent risks divided by 200 30~34.9 – Moderate risk
35~39.9 – Low risk
The higher the score, the lower is the perceived risk > 40 – Very low risk
http://www.prsgroup.com
34
Prepared by Adam Wong
Country Risk Ratings
35
Prepared by Adam Wong
• This risk is mitigated by setting limits for the maximum transfer and
convertibility risk (“transfer risk”) exposure to each country.
• Transfer risk is the risk that capital and foreign exchange controls
may be imposed by authorities that would prevent or materially
impede the conversion of local currency into foreign currency
and/or transfer of funds to non-residents.
36
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap 2
37
Prepared by Adam Wong
38
Prepared by Adam Wong
Market Risk - Definition
– interest rates,
• Many large banks have dramatically increased the size and activity
of their trading portfolios, resulting in greater exposure to market
risk. Example of trading assets
$2.1 trillion
39
Prepared by Adam Wong
40
Prepared by Adam Wong
Credit Risk vs Market Risk
Bank purchase
Events
causing bond Losses due to decline in bond price /
price to interest rate
decline
Nest slide –
Credit Risk Market Risk managing
market risk
41
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
• VaR calculates the likely loss a bank might experience on its whole
trading book.
43
Prepared by Adam Wong
$2m
The above shows the maximum fall in the value of the portfolio ($2m) that
occurs no more than five per cent of the time.
VaR of the portfolio is defined as the loss (2%) which has precisely 5% of
the probability mass to its left – e.g. loss of $2m based on portfolio of
$100m. 44
Prepared by Adam Wong
Factors Affecting VaR
Original 5% area
-6 -4 -3 -2 0 2 3 4 6
VaR @ 95%
confidence
VaR @ 99%
confidence
Losses is
less than
$1m 99% of
1% area
the time
-6 -4 -3 -2 0 2 4 6
$ losses based on a portfolio of $100m
Original 5%
New 5%
-6 -4 -3 -2 0 2 4 6
Computing VAR
A VAR statistic has three components:
• time period
• confidence level and
• loss amount (or loss percentage)
48
Prepared by Adam Wong
1. Historical Method
• Re-organizes actual historical returns, putting them in order from
worst to best.
• Assumes that history will repeat itself, from a risk perspective.
Evaluating the Risk of NASDAQ index
Total data points = 1400 days
Daily returns
∑ of these represents the lowest 5% of observations (70 out of 1400 days) of daily
returns. The red bars run from daily losses of 4% to 8%.
Because these are the worst 5% (70 out of 1400 days) of all daily returns, we can say
with 95% confidence that the worst daily loss will not exceed 4%.
49
Prepared by Adam Wong
• That means the worst five outcomes (that is, the worst 5% i.e. 5 out of
100 trials) were more than -15%.
Daily returns
Computing Z Score
51
http://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/calc20.aspx
Prepared by Adam Wong
Weaknesses of VAR
Historical Simulation
1 - Bars represent #
of occurrence of a
particular value
52
Prepared by Adam Wong
Weaknesses of VAR - Recap
– Value At Risk does not say anything about the size of losses or
maximum possible loss this within 1%.
*
52 weeks X 5 days per week = 260 days.
1% = 2.6 days
53
Prepared by Adam Wong
54
Prepared by Adam Wong
Example – DBS’s Market Risk – 1/2
55
Prepared by Adam Wong
Risk methodologies
• Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a method that computes the potential losses
on risk positions as a result of movements in market rates and
prices, over a specified time horizon and to a given level of
confidence.
57
Prepared by Adam Wong
A16 Q3
Answer - 2 parts
Area of • SIMLOCC To be covered in later part of slides
focus • VaR
A07 Q3
58
Prepared by Adam Wong
Overview of Chapter 3 and Links to Other Chapters
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
60
Prepared by Adam Wong
Liquidity Risk - Definition Linked to Chapter 5 & 8
1. Risks that are associated with a bank finding itself unable to meet
its commitments on time,
or
61
Prepared by Adam Wong
Liquidity is required:
– as a cushion to replace net outflows of funds
• e.g. Customer withdrawals or loan disbursement > funds raised
62
Prepared by Adam Wong
Sources of Liquidity
Current
Assets
Current
Liabilities
Non Current
Assets
LT Liab
Equity
63
Prepared by Adam Wong
Alternative 1
Converting liquid assets Alternative 2 Alternative 3
to generate cash Increase Liabilities Increase Equity
New Asset New Asset New Liab New Asset
Cash Current
Assets Current Current Current
Assets Assets Liabilities
Current Current
Liabilities Liabilities
2. management strategy
– related to purpose and business directions
deposit vs.
3. access to liquidity markets (interbank borrowings) interbank vs.
– depends on banks credit standing bonds vs.
equity
65
Prepared by Adam Wong
Summary
1. Seasonal Liquidity Requirement
Affects the choice of
2. Cyclical Liquidity Requirement
funding source
3. Longer term Liquidity Requirement
66
Prepared by Adam Wong
1 - Seasonal Liquidity Requirements
* interbank borrowings
67
Prepared by Adam Wong
68
Prepared by Adam Wong
Limitation on Amount of Bought In Liquidity
69
Prepared by Adam Wong
Basel III
footnotes
1 sales of assets to raise liquidity
2 borrowings to raise liquidity
70
Prepared by Adam Wong
How Liquidity Risk is Addressed by Regulators
Basel III
Net stable
Available amount of stable funding _
>100% funding
Long term assets requiring stable funding
ratio
71
Prepared by Adam Wong
73
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
76
Prepared by Adam Wong
Interest Rate Risk – Price Impact Price drops from $100 to $90
A B C
Starting Value -100 -90 -110
10 10 10
10 10 10 Interest payment
10 10 10 remains unchanged
10 10 10
110 110 110 Final value (princ + Int)
10.0% 12.8% 7.5% Internal Rate of Return
(effective Yield)
A – Start of investment - Investor pay $100, bonds pay a coupon on 10% = $10
per period
B – Market perceive bond to be more risky, requires 12.8%, but bond still pay $10
coupon per period (lower than expected return)
→ Investor is only willing to pay $90 (IRR = 12.8%)
C – Market perceive bond to be less risky, requires only 7.5%, but bond still pay
$10 coupon per period (more than expected return)
→ Investor is now willing to pay $110 (IRR = 7.5%)
77
Prepared by Adam Wong
78
Prepared by Adam Wong
Causes of Interest Risk
• Banks are exposed to interest rate risk because they operate with
unmatched balance sheets.
Maturity Maturity
• Short Term • Short Term
• Long Term • Long Term
Examples of fixed rate vs floating rate
79
Prepared by Adam Wong
http://www.moneysmart.sg/home-loan/sibor-trend
Sibor - the rate at which an ABS Sibor contributor bank can borrow funds were it to do so
by asking for and accepting inter-bank offers, in a reasonable market size just prior to 1100
hours.
At 11 am, 17 contributor banks submit the rates at which they can borrow funds to
Thomson Reuters.
The rates are ranked in order, and those in the top and bottom quartiles are removed.
The remaining rates must come from at least eight banks. If not, ABS will make up for the
shortfall by polling money brokers.
80
Prepared by Adam Wong
Fixed vs Floating Rate
Loans Funding
Interest rate Basis
Fixed Fixed
Floating Floating
(Variable) (Variable)
Maturity Maturity
Fixed Fixed
Floating Floating
Fixed Fixed
Floating Floating
Funding cost
rates expected to
% move down at
each repricing
84
time
Prepared by Adam Wong
Other Reasons for Mis-matching of Interest Rate
Risk
3. No certainty that the banks’ borrowing costs in all cases will move
in step with market rates.
85
Prepared by Adam Wong
Interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) is part of the Basel
capital framework’s Pillar 2 (Supervisory Review Process)
Basel Standards
12 Principles
86
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap 5
87
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
Operational Risk
Eg. SARS
91
Prepared by Adam Wong
• The police stated they lack evidence to charge him with fraud and
charged him with abuse of confidence and illegal access to
computers.
• Kerviel states his actions were known to his superiors and that the
losses were caused by panic-selling by the bank. Such practices are
widespread and that getting a profit makes the hierarchy turn a blind
eye.
94
Prepared by Adam Wong
Examples of Operational Risk - Alexis Stenfors (BOA)
95
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Internal controls were not in place at the time that rogue trader
Kweku Adoboli allegedly ran up a $2 billion (£1.3 billion) loss on the
bank’s derivatives desk
96
Prepared by Adam Wong
How is Operational Risk Addressed by Regulators
Advanced Measurement
Approach
own internal data to calculate the
operational risk capital requirement
97
Prepared by Adam Wong
98
Prepared by Adam Wong
Overview of Chapter 3 and Links to Other Chapters
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
100
Prepared by Adam Wong
Solvency Risk
101
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Reputation Risk
104
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap 6
105
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
106 Basel – IRRBB Standards
Prepared by Adam Wong
107
Prepared by Adam Wong
108
Prepared by Adam Wong
Four Stages In Risk Management. Delegated Monitoring –
argument for intermediation
• Credit risk over direct financing
• Liquidity risk
• Interest rate risk
• Market risk Establish appropriate
• Country risk monitoring & control
• Solvency risk procedures
• Operational risk
Identify Establish
Measure the Balance risk
areas of monitoring /&
risk and return
risks control
1 2 3 4
1. Development of
competitive
advantages
2. Implementation of
strategy
3. Ensuring capital
Identify Measure Monitoring adequacy and
Balance solvency
Risks Risks & control
4. Reporting and
control of risks
5. Management of
portfolios of
transactions.
110
Prepared by Adam Wong
Risk Management Process – Two Approaches to
determine the amount of risks that a Bank should take
Approach 1 Approach 2
Country level
111
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap
Sensitivity
Volatility
Downside Risk
112
Prepared by Adam Wong
B11 Q 3
Explain the risk management process in banks, and critically
analyse the Value-at-Risk approach to risk measurement.
P15 Q5
Explain the different risks inherent in banking and describe
the risk management process.
113
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
116
Prepared by Adam Wong
1. Quantitative Risk Measures - Sensitivity
Sensitivity
117
Prepared by Adam Wong
Portfolio B
Portfolio A and B
have the same
number of data
points Portfolio A
1.96 SD
1.96 SD
-4% -2% 0 2% 4%
-1.6% +1.6%
-2.2% +2.2%
Mean return
Frequency .4
.3
.2
.1
Measures used
VaR
Loss of >2.5% is unlikely to happen 95% of the time
EaR
5% probability that the loss will be 2.5% or more
119
Prepared by Adam Wong
• Ch 5 – ALM
• Ch 8 – Risk mgt with derivatives
Organisation A Organisation B
Liabilities
Liabilities ($60m)
Assets ($90m) Assets
($100m) ($100m)
Capital
Capital ($40m)
($10m)
If asset value decline by >10% debt If asset value decline by >40% debt
holders will suffer loss holders will suffer loss
121
Prepared by Adam Wong
122
Prepared by Adam Wong
Types of Losses
• Earnings losses
123
Prepared by Adam Wong
124
Prepared by Adam Wong
Another Definition
http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs152.htm
The mission of the BIS is to serve central banks in their pursuit of monetary and
financial stability, to foster international cooperation in those areas and to act as a bank
for central banks.
125
Prepared by Adam Wong
loss against
Unexpected Loss which it is
judged to be
Potential unexpected loss which
too expensive
should be covered by Economic
to hold capital
Capital
against.
Unexpected
loss of this
Expected Loss extent lead to
insolvency
126
Prepared by Adam Wong
Method 1 - Value at Risk (VaR)
127
Prepared by Adam Wong
128
Prepared by Adam Wong
Earnings at Risk (EaR)
129
Prepared by Adam Wong
Earnings At Risk
• Starting Point – Earnings
– E.g. accounting earnings, interest margins and cash flows.
• The wider the distribution of a bank’s earnings, the higher the risk of
the bank.
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
130
Prepared by Adam Wong % Gain / loss
Earnings At Risk
• EaR uses the observed volatility (standard deviation) of earnings
values as the basis for calculating potential losses, and thus for
estimating the amount of capital capable of absorbing such potential
losses.
131
Prepared by Adam Wong
Drawbacks of EaR
• It does not relate the adverse deviations of earnings to the
underlying risks.
• Aggregates the effects of all risks – resulting from looking just at the
accounting income.
Unlike
• VaR which captures risks at their source, and requires the linking of
losses to each risk.
Market Risk
Other Risks
132
Prepared by Adam Wong
Recap 7
133
Prepared by Adam Wong
B09 Q3
134
Prepared by Adam Wong
End
135
Prepared by Adam Wong