Probability Theory

and ETA
Subtitle
Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
• A bottom-up approach
• ETA begin with an initiating event and work
toward a final result.
• Provide information on how a failure can
occur and the probability of occurrence.
• Explore how safeguards and external
influences, called lines of assurance, affect
the path of accident chains.
Example of ETA
 Example 3: Probability of failure rates and ETA
A high-temperature alarm has been
installed to warn the operator of a high
temperature within the reactor. Assume the
initiating event is a loss-of-coolant, draw the
event tree.
Step 1: Identify the four safety functions.
Step 2: Use the identifier (failures/demand)
table below to calculate each event
occurrences/year.

System safety functions Failure/demand

High temperature alarm 0.01
Operator notices 0.25
Operator restarts cooling 0.25
Operator shuts down 0.1
reactor
• Step 3:
1. Determine the net frequencies of shutdown occurrences per year.
(0.2250 occurrence/yr)
2. Determine the sum of frequencies of runaway occurrences per year.
(0.02500 occurence/yr)
 High-temp Operator Operator Operator
alarm alerts notices restarts shuts down Results
Safety function: operator high temp cooling reactor
Identifier: B C D E
Failures/demand 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.1
A
Continue operation
0.7425
AD
Shut down
0.99 0.2227

0.2475 ADE
Runaway
0.02475
A AB
1 Continue operation
0.005625
Initiating event: ABD Shut down
0.001688
Loss of cooling
1 occurrence/yr 0.001875 ABDE
Runaway
0.01 0.0001875
ABC Continue operation
0.001875
ABCD
Shut down
0.0005625

0.000625 ABCDE
0.0000625 Runaway