LATIN AMERICA-US
RELATIONS (III)
The post-Cold
War years
Prof. GIAN LUCA GARDINI
IN TODAY’S CLASS: 1989-2017
Neoliberalism: from triumph to questioning
The administrations of: G. H. Bush, W.
Clinton, G. W. Bush
Analysis of the two mandates of B. Obama
US and Latin America under Donald Trump
Change and continuity in US influence in
Latin America
We will answer 4 questions:
1. What were the consequences of the end of the Cold War
for Latin America?
2. How have the Washington administrations dealt with Latin
America since 1989?
3. What changes and continuities do exist in US-Latin
American relations between the neoliberal era and the
pink tide phase?
4. How has the US influence in Latin America evolved in the
last 25 years?
The neoliberal years (the 1990s)
The end of the Cold War: consequences
and fears in Latin America
The triumph of the US model and ideology
Imposition or request?
The Summits of the Americas and the FTAA
Need for reform
Revitalization of Pan-Americanism
Revitalization of regionalism
The Latin American presidents and their role
1
 George H. Bush William (Bill) Clinton
(1989-1993) (1993-2001)
Limited interest initially: continuity
2 phases: NAFTA: ratification by Congress
Cold War (anti-communism) Labour and environment protocols
Post-Cold War (economic and democratic initiatives)
The first Summit of the Americas (1994)
The invasion of Panama (1989) The crisis in Mexico (1994)
Change in the concept of security
Variations according to interests The invasion of Haiti (1994)

Economic initiatives Good reputation: charisma and “feel good” policy

Negotiations for NAFTA
Overall
EAI
Continuity in support of neoliberalism and democracy
Latin America never a real priority
Promotion of democracy in Central America Addressed almost all issues substantially

George W. Bush Barack Obama

(2001-2009)
Good intentions
“Amigo policy” and immigration
FTAA
Democratic clause (2001 Summit of the Americas)
9/11
Relations with the pink tide and the 2004 re-election
The fall of the FTAA (2005) and the alternative strategy
Security as involving democracy and economic reform
Ideological and personalized approach (Fox, Lula, Uribe)
(2009-2016)
Great expectations
“Equal partnership”
"We have at times been disengaged, and at times we
sought to dictate our terms,[…] but I pledge to you that
we seek an equal partnership. There is no senior partner
and junior partner in our relations."
But no joint final declaration at Trinidad (2009) or
Cartagena (2012)
FTA with PAN, Peru, COL, positive climate
2 phases: limits (2009-13) and advances (2014-16)

2
 Obama and structural limitations Obama’s difficulties in Latin America

2009 Honduras: tensions with the Republicans and Brazil

No appointment of “special envoy” (role of Joe Biden)

Tensions with Mexico over the immigration reform

50 years of failure in the fight against drug trafficking

Tensions with Brazil: NSA, UNSC, Ethanol, Iran

China’s growth in LA and criticism of a reactive policy

Obama’s achievements in Latin America Donald Trump and Latin America I

Cuba US-Mexico relations and the Trump arguments

Reestablishment of diplomatic relations
↓ restrictions to travel to Cuba; ↑ limits to remittances
↓ restrictions to US companies exports to Cuba Trade
2016 official visit Bilateral trade grew 6 times since NAFTA (1994)
Mexico 2nd largest export market for US (> China+Jpn+Ger)
Mexico
Manufacturing jobs in US declined since 2001 not 1994 (1)
Cross-border cooperation to fight drug trafficking
US trade deficit with Mex < China, Jpn, Kor, Ger, Fra, Rus
Mexican trucks allowed to deliver to US
US lost 5mn jobs in 2 decades but US production grew (2)
Central America - $1 bn aid in 2 years for: NAFTA is not a job killer, US jobs related to trade with Mex grew
from 700.000 to 4.9mn since 1993
Reform of police and fight against human trafficking
Reduce youth unemployment
China and automation are the major causes of US job losses

3

Donald Trump and Latin America II
Immigration
35mn Mexicans or US-Mexicans in the US (= Canada population)
4/5 are either US citizens or legal residents
Mex sends mostly tourist to US, 20mn visitors (1/4), lots of US jobs
depend on Mex tourists (> UK+Jpn+China+Ger+Fra combined)
Since 2009 more Mexicans left than came to the US
The Wall
Executive order to build the wall but it already exists
Mex will pay for it? Tax on Mexican imports into the US but paid by
importers
Prevent crime: undocumented immigrants tripled but violent crime
decreased by 48% (1990-2013)
Future perspectives: the return of the US
or yet another missed opportunity?
69% support for Obama in Lat Am (2015)
Pink tide in decline and less assertive
Commodities prices lower
China’s slow down, cautious role and declining
investments
The Trump variable…
US influence in Latin America:
Evolving or declining?
Birns (2007) No automatic capacity to drive Latin American
countries, leadership to be gained.
Hakim (2006) Lowest point in the bilateral relationship
Petras (2006)
Economy: FTA with Peru, Colombia, Panama, Mexico, Chile, DR-
CAFTA: no concessions in agriculture, no abolition of quotas +
high profits for US companies in LA
Security: bases in (Ecuador), Paraguay, Colombia, El Salvador +
training programs (URU) and joint exercises
Ideology: free market, free trade, democracy
Crandall (2008) US still have central role but features are evolving
Reid (2015) Changes in Lat Am reduced US influence
And with the arrival of Donald Trump?
Conclusion: the current situation
“Intermestic” spaces and domestic factors in foreign
policy
Complexity
Debate over the impact of 9/11 in Latin America
Controversy over US role inevitable for power
asymmetry
Towards a new era of US-Latin American relations?