Huth and Allee Territorial Claims Data, 1919-1995

Outcome data set

Data set that can be used to examine: 1) the level of concessions made by territorial dispute
adversaries (in rounds of talks over disputed territory), and/or 2) the level of military
escalation by territorial dispute adversaries (in MIDs over disputed territory)

File Name: huth_allee_outcomedata.dta

Overview and Comments:

 The purpose of this particular version of the data set is to analyze the outcomes of talks or
militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) that were initiated by territorial dispute challengers (see
Status Quo data).
 The Outcome data set includes data regarding the outcomes of 1,528 rounds of negotiations
and 374 MIDs over disputed territory. In addition, the Outcome dataset also includes an
additional 4,370 observations in which no rounds of talks were launched and no MID was
initiated. These “no action” observations are included in the Outcome data set in case one wants
to run a selection-type model that examines the outcomes of negotiations and MIDs, while also
accounting for the challenger’s initial decision to initiate negotiations or to initiate a MID.
Because this version of the data includes data on both “terminal moves” in talks and MIDs, as
well as “initial moves” to initiate/not initiate those talks and MIDs, this is the most relevant
version of the data for those interested in applying game theoretic logic and strategic estimators
to our data.
 The number of rounds of negotiations and number of MIDs is lower in the Outcome data set
(1,528 rounds of negotiations and 374 MIDs) as compared to the Status Quo data set (1,782
rounds of negotiations and 390 MIDs). This is because 254 rounds of talks and 16 MIDs were
“jointly” initiated by both sides. It makes since to include and analyze all of these “jointly
initiated” cases in the Status Quo data set (see the Status Quo data set codebook for more
details). However, now that the focus shifts from the initiation of talks and MIDs to the
outcomes of talks and MIDs, one of the two “duplicate” observations for the Status Quo data set
is randomly deleted from the Outcome data set, in order to avoid the outcome of any given round
of negotiations or MID from being analyzed twice.
 We generated three parallel—and very similar—versions of the Outcome data set. Each of the
three data sets represents a different “random draw” in which one of the two pairs of duplicate
observations was randomly deleted for the 254 rounds of talks 16 MIDs referenced above.
 In order to analyze the outcomes of negotiations or the outcomes of MIDs, one must separate
the observations for negotiations, as well as the observations for MIDs, from all other
observations in this data set. In order to analyze the outcomes of negotiations, one should either
type “if dvsq1==1” at the end of the Stata command, or one can simply create a smaller,
“negotiation” version of the larger Outcome data set by separating out all 1,528 cases of
negotiations (dvsq1=1) from the broader data set. Similarly, in order to analyze the outcomes of
MIDs, one should either type “if dvsq1==2” at the end of the Stata command, or one can simply

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create a smaller “MID” version of the Outcome data set by separating out the 374 MIDs
(dvsq1=2) from the broader data set.
 As was the case for the Status Quo data set, most variables in this data set are measured on a
month-specific, or month-by-month basis.
 For each round of negotiations or MID in the Outcome data set, the independent variable data
for that observation is drawn from the final month of the talks (or final month of the MID), when
the ultimate decision regarding the level of concessions to make (or level of escalation to pursue)
is ultimately made. This contrasts with the data accompanying the observations in the Status
Quo data set, which are taken from the initial month of any negotiations or any MID, when the
negotiations or MID are first initiated.
 Therefore, since most rounds of negotiations and MIDs span several months, the independent
variable data corresponding to a given round of talks or MID will different slightly across the
Status Quo and Outcome data sets.
 Many of the independent variables in the Outcome data set end in “j”, “1”, or “2”. Those
variables ending in “j” are variables that apply “jointly” to both the challenger and target, such as
a variable to indicate whether the challenger and target are allies. Variables that end in “1” apply
to the challenger state. In nearly all cases, a parallel variable exists that ends in “2”, to indicate
that this variable applies to the target state.

Variables in the Outcome Data Set

challenger – COW country code for the territorial dispute challenger

target – COW country code for the territorial dispute target

edatepog – Final month and year of the round of negotiations or MID

bdatepog – Beginning month and year of the round of negotiations or MID (same as datetm in
Status Quo data)

dispno – Dispute number, by region

region – Region (Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Near and Middle East)

dispno2 – Dispute number, all regions

chgname – Challenger country name

tgtname – Target country name

dual – Equals 1 if this is a dispute in which both states are coded as challengers (the round of
negotiations or MID is only listed once in this data set, although it was listed twice in the Status
Quo data set)

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dupnegno – Identification number used to identify the entry that was maintained in situations
where one of the two entries for a given round of negotiations was randomly deleted (in a “dual”
challenger dispute) from the Outcome data set.

dupescno – Identification number used to identify the entry that was maintained in situations
where one of the two entries for a given MID was randomly deleted (in a “dual” challenger
dispute) from the Outcome data set.

dvsq1 – Initial foreign policy action taken by the challenger: 0 if the challenger took no action,
1 if the challenger initiated negotiations, 2 if the challenger initiated a militarized interstate
dispute. The various dvneg variables only apply if dvsq1=1 and the various dvesc variables only
apply if dvsq1=2.

dvsqngbi – Binary version of dvsq1 that can be used as the first dependent variable in a selection
model intended to explain the outcome of rounds of negotiations; 0 if dvsq1 = 0 or 2, 1 if
dvsq1 = 1

dvsqesbi - Binary version of dvsq1 used that can be used as the first dependent variable in a
selection model intended to explain the outcome of MIDs over disputed territory; 0 if dvsq1 = 0
or 1, 1 if dvsq1 = 2

dvneg1 – (if engaged in negotiations) Level of territorial concessions made by the challenger in
the current round of talks (1=no concessions, 2=limited concessions, 3=major concessions)

dvnegbi1 - (if engaged in negotiations) Binary version of dvneg1, which is intended to gauge
whether the challenger made at least some territorial concessions in the current round of talks
(0=no concessions, 1=limited or major concessions)

dvneg2 – (if engaged in negotiations) Level of territorial concessions made by the target in the
current round of talks (1=no concessions, 2=limited concessions, 3=major concessions)

dvnegbi2 - (if engaged in negotiations) Binary version of dvneg2, which is intended to gauge
whether the target made at least some territorial concessions in the current round of talks (0=no
concessions, 1=limited or major concessions)

dvesc1 – (if engaged in a MID) Level of military escalation by the challenger in the current MID
(1=low or limited escalation, 2=moderate escalation, 3=high escalation)

dvescbi1 – (if engaged in a MID) Binary version of dvesc1, which is intended to gauge whether
the challenger escalated the MID to high levels of escalation (0=limited or moderate escalation,
1=high escalation)

dvesc2 – (if engaged in a MID) Level of military escalation by the target in the current MID
(1=low or limited escalation, 2=moderate escalation, 3=high escalation)

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dvescbi2 – (if engaged in a MID) Binary version of dvesc2, which is intended to gauge whether
the target escalated the MID to high levels of escalation (0=limited or moderate escalation,
1=high escalation)

allyj – Is there currently a defense pact or entente military alliance between the challenger and
target? 0 if no, 1 if yes

comoppj – Do the challenger and target currently share a common territorial dispute adversary?
0 if no, 1 if yes

comadv2j – Equals 1 if the states have shared a common adversary in a militarized conflict
within the past 2 years; such conflicts include civil wars, international wars, extra systemic wars,
MIDs, and MIDs in territorial disputes (NOTE: This variable is only year-specific, not month-
specific).

comadv5j - Equals 1 if the states have shared a common adversary in a militarized conflict
within the past 5 years; such conflicts include civil wars, international wars, extra systemic wars,
MIDs, and MIDs in territorial disputes (NOTE: This variable is only year-specific, not month-
specific).

endriv5j – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have been involved in at least 5 militarized
conflicts (MIDs, territorial dispute MIDs, ICB crises, any type of war) in the past 20 years

endrv10j – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have been involved in at least 10 militarized
conflicts (MIDs, territorial dispute MIDs, ICB crises, any type of war) in the past 20 years

demdyadj - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are democratic according to the Polity net-
democracy measure (dem1=1 and dem2=1)

mixdyadj - Equals 1 if the challenger and target comprise a mixed dyad according the Polity net-
democracy variable; that is, if either dem1=0 and dem2=1 OR dem1=1 and dem2=0

autdyadj - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are non-democratic according to the Polity
net-democracy measure (dem1=0 and dem2=0)

noutdemdyad - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are democratic according to the
lagged, violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem1 = 1 and nviodem2 = 1)

noutauthdyad - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are non-democratic according to the
lagged, violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem1 = 0 and nviodem2 = 0)

noutmixdyad – Equals 1 if the dyad is a mixed dyad according the lagged, violence-based
measures of democratic norms (nviodem1=1 and nviodem2=0 OR nviodem1=0 and nviodem2=1)

dmdynpj - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are democratic according to the lagged,
Polity-based measure of democratic norms (pnvdem1 = 1 and pnvdem2 = 1)

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mixdynpj – Equals 1 if the dyad is a mixed dyad according the lagged, Polity-based measures of
democratic norms (pnvdem1=1 and pnvdem2=0 OR pnvdem1=0 and pnvdem2=1)

authdynpj - Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are non-democratic according to the
lagged, Polity-based measure of democratic norms (pnvdem1 = 0 and pnvdem2 = 0)

bothdw2j – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are currently democratic (dem1=1 and
dem2=1) and both have become democratic within the current calendar year or the previous two
calendar years

bothdw5j – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are currently democratic (dem1=1 and
dem2=1) and both have become democratic within the current calendar year or the previous five
calendar years

bothd10j – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are currently democratic (dem1=1 and
dem2=1) and both have become democratic within the current calendar year or the previous ten
calendar years

bothgviol10 – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are nondemocratic according to the
lagged, violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem1=1 and nviodem2=1), and both
had experienced internal violence in at least 10 of the past 20 years (nviol20lag1<10 and
nviol20lag2<10)

authdypnd10j – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are nondemocratic according to the
lagged, Polity-based measure of democratic norms (_20dmlag1<15 and _20dmlag2<15) & both
countries are very nondemocratic (netdem1 and netdem2 <=-5 for at least 10 of the past 20 years)

authdypnd15j – Equals 1 if both the challenger and target are nondemocratic according to the
lagged, Polity-based measure of democratic norms (_20dmlag1<15 and _20dmlag2<15) & both
countries are very nondemocratic (netdem1 and netdem2 <=-5 for at least 15 of the past 20 years)

affinitj – A dummy variable equal to 1 if the challenger and target share a common regime type
(if tdrgtyp1 = tdrgtuyp2); note that affinitj = 1 only if tdrgtyp1 and tdrgtyp2 are equal to 1, 2, 3,
4 or 5

affdemj – Equals 1 if affinitj=1 and both states are democratic (tdrgtyp1=1 and tdrgtyp2=1)

affmonj – Equals 1 if affinitj=1 and both states are monarchies (tdrgtyp1=2 and tdrtyp2=2)

affjunj – Equals 1 if affinitj=1 and both states are military juntas (tdrgtyp1=3 and tdrgtyp2=3)

affcomj – Equals 1 if affinitj=1 and both states are communist regimes (tdrgtyp1=4 and
tdrgtyp2=4)

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chgsim3j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 3 years that shifted the two states from having
dissimilar regime types to similar regime types

chgsim5j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 5 years that shifted the two states from having
dissimilar regime types to similar regime types

chgsm10j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 10 years that shifted the two states from having
dissimilar regime types to similar regime types

chgdis3j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 3 years that shifted the two states from having
similar regime types to dissimilar regime types

chgdis5j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 5 years that shifted the two states from having
similar regime types to dissimilar regime types

chgds10j – Equals 1 if either the challenger or target experienced a change in regime type (as
classified by tdrgtyp1 or tdrgtyp2) in the past 10 years that shifted the two states from having
similar regime types to dissimilar regime types

milrat1 – Military balance between challenger and target, expressed as a percentage of the
overall dyadic military capabilities held by the challenger (ranges from 0-1); this variable is an
average of the two sides’ ratios of military expenditures (expratio), troops (trpratio), and
spending per troop (sptrprat).

locad1 – (applies to MIDs only) Equals 1 if the challenger has an advantage in the local balance
of forces

odi1 – Is the challenger currently engaged in another military conflict (MID, territorial dispute
MID, any type of war); 0 if no, 1 if yes

strval1 – Strategic value of disputed territory to the challenger; 0 if no strategic value, 1 if

strategic value

ecoval1 – Economic value of disputed territory to the challenger; 0 if no economic value, 1 if

economic value

netdem1 – POLITY net-democracy score for challenger; ranges from –10 (most non-
democratic) to +10 (most democratic)

dem1 – Dummy variable to indicate that the challenger is democratic; 0 if netdem1 is less than
+6, 1 if netdem1 is greater than or equal to +6

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ndem1 – Dummy variable to indicate that the challenger is non-democratic; 0 if netdem1 is
greather than or equal to +6, 1 if netdem1 is less than +6

erv5netdem1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying endriv5j * netdem1

erv10netdem1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying endrv10j * netdem1

erv5dem1 – An interaction term equal to 1 if endriv5j=1 and dem1=1

erv10dm1 – An interaction term equal to 1 if endrv10j=1 and dem1=1

stalea1 – Equals 1 if the challenger suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
target and that round of talks took place within the past twelve months; from the challenger’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the challenger made no or limited concessions (dvneg1 in
the previous talks was 0 or 1), while the target made no concessions (dvneg2 in the previous talks
was 0)

staleb1 – Equals 1 if the challenger suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
target and that round of talks took place within the past twenty-four months; from the
challenger’s point of view, a “stalemate” is when the challenger made no or limited concessions
(dvneg1 in the previous talks was 0 or 1), while the target made no concessions (dvneg2 in the
previous talks was 0)

stalec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
target and that round of talks took place within the past sixty months; from the challenger’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the challenger made no or limited concessions (dvneg1 in
the previous talks was 0 or 1), while the target made no concessions (dvneg2 in the previous talks
was 0)

netdem1stale1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem1 * stalea1

netdem2stale1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem1 * staleb1

netdem5stale1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem1 * stalec1

ethval1 – Does the challenger have ethnic co-nationals located in the disputed territory? 0 if no,
1 if yes

netdemethval1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval1 * netdem1

ethvdem1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval1 * dem1

mil46unc1 – Indicates a situation of relative military parity between the challenger and target
(milrat1 is between .4 and .6)

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netdemmilunc1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem1 * mil46unc1

tgirneg – A dummy variable equal to 1 if the target signaled an initial lack of willingness to
make concessions in response to the challenger’s initiation of negotiations

tgiresc – A dummy variable equal to 1 if the target signaled resolve to escalate force after the
challenger initiated military action

tgirnegnetdem – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgirneg by netdem1

tgirescnetdem - An interaction term generated by multiplying tgiresc by netdem1

tgirnegd – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgirneg by dem1

tgirescd – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgiresc by dem1

allupp1 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the upper house of bicameral
challenger states (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1); in states
where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow1 is used for allupp1

alllow1 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the lower house of the challenger
state (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

leadup1 – The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the upper house of
bicameral challenger states (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1);
in states where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow1 is used for
allupp1

leadlow1 - The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the lower house of the
challenger state (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

nparty1 - The number of parties in the governing coalition in the challenger state (this variable
only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

mingovc1 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the challenger state has a minority of seats
(allow1<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

mingovp1 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the challenger state holds a minority of seats
(leadlow1<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1)

majgovc1 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the challenger state has a majority of seats
(allow1>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

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majgovp1 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the challenger state holds a majority of seats
(leadlow1>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1)

elecnt1 – The number of months since the last general election was held in the challenger state
(this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

ele12m1 – Equals 1 if a general election has been held in the challenger state in the past twelve
months (elecnt1<=12); also note that this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1

_3intgt1 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a challenger state is in a close race within 3
months of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

_6intgt1 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a challenger state is in a close race within 3
months of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

ndneg1 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state is significantly non-democratic; that

is, if netdem1 is less than or equal to 0; (this variable only applies to non-democratic
challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

vndneg1 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state is very non-democratic; that is, if
netdem1 is less than or equal to -5; (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=0)

ncou1yr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has not experienced a coup within
the past twelve months (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

ncou2yr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has not experienced a coup within
the past twenty-four months (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=0)

nvrebyr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has NOT experienced some form
of violent political rebellion (vrebyr1=0) in the past calendar year (this variable only applies to
non-democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

chnd_td1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is the non-democratic state in a mixed dyad; that is, if
dem1=0 and dem2=1

nviol20lag1 - Number of the past twenty years in which the challenger state has NOT
experienced violent political conflict; that is, the number of the past twenty years in which
nvrebyr1=1

nviodem1 - Equals 1 if the challenger is democratic according to the lagged, violence-based

measure of democratic norms (nviol20lag1 is 16 or higher)

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_20dmlg1 – Number of the past twenty years the challenger state has been democratic (in which
netdem1>=6)

pnvdem1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is democratic according to the lagged, Polity-based

measure of democratic norms (_20dmlag1 is 15 or higher)

nv20stlyr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea1)

nv20st2yr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb1)

nv20st5yr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec1)

nv20milad1 - Equals nviol20lag1 if milrat1 > .6666

nv20milmj1 - Equals nviol20lag1 if milrat1 > .5

st1dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea1)

st2dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 24 months (stalea2)

st5dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 60 months (stalea5)

pnormad1 - Equals _20dmlag1 if milrat1 > .6666

pnormmj1 - Equals _20dmlag1 if milrat1 > .5

dem2yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous two calendar years

dem5yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous five calendar years

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dem10yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous ten calendar years

gviol10 – Equals 1 if the challenger is nondemocratic according to the lagged, violence-based

measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1), and had experienced internal violence in at least 10
of the past 20 years (nviol20lag1<10); NOTE – this variable is a hold-over from a previous
version of the Outcome data set

yrsvnd1 – The number of the past twenty years in which the challenger has been very non-
democratic; that is, its Polity net-democracy score was –5 or less

pn4_10v1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the

lagged, violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger was
free from internal violence for 10 or fewer years during the past twenty years (i.e., if
nviol20lag1<=10)

g10viol1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger experienced
significant internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag1<10, which means
the challenger experienced internal violence in at least 10 of the past 20 years)

g15viol1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger experienced
very high levels of internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag1<5, which
means the challenger experienced internal violence in at least 15 of the past 20 years)

ndnormmix1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according
to the lagged violence measure (noutmixdyad=1 and nvioldem1=0)

mixdypolnondem1 - Equals 1 if the challenger is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad

according to the lagged, Polity-based measure (mixdynpj=1 and pnvdem1=0)

tdrgtyp1 – The regime type of the challenger state, based on the following classifications: 1 if
democracy (netdem1 >= 6), 2 if hereditary non-democratic monarchy, 3 if collective rule by
military junta, 4 if single-party-dominant communist state, 5 if single-party-dominant fascist
state; 9 if other

dominsec1 - Equals 1 if the regime in the challenger state is facing a domestic political threat
(current civil war or revolution; insurgency, coup, or attempted coup within the past calendar
year)

expolsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is facing an external political threat

ps3dominsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the challenger is facing a domestic political threat (dominsec1=1)

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ps3expolsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the challenger is facing a external political threat (expolsec1=1)

ps4ex1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have different regime types (affinitj=0), the
challenger is facing an external political threat (expolse1c=1) and the country constituting the
external threat has the same regime type as the target state (as classified by tdregtyp1 & 2 )

milrat2 – Military balance between target and challenger, expressed as a percentage of the
overall dyadic military capabilities held by the target (ranges from 0-1); this variable is an
average of the two sides’ ratios of military expenditures (expratio), troops (trpratio), and
spending per troop (sptrprat).

locad2 – (applies to MIDs only) Equals 1 if the target has an advantage in the local balance of
forces

odi2 – Is the target currently engaged in another military conflict (MID, territorial dispute MID,
any type of war); 0 if no, 1 if yes

strval2 – Strategic value of disputed territory to the target; 0 if no strategic value, 1 if strategic
value

ecoval2 – Economic value of disputed territory to the target; 0 if no economic value, 1 if

economic value

netdem2 – POLITY net-democracy score for target; ranges from –10 (most non-democratic) to
+10 (most democratic)

dem2– Dummy variable to indicate that the target is democratic; 0 if netdem2 is less than +6, 1
if netdem2 is greater than or equal to +6

ndem2 – Dummy variable to indicate that the target is non-democratic; 0 if netdem2 is greater
than or equal to +6, 1 if netdem2 is less than +6

erv5netdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying endriv5j * netdem2

erv10netdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying endrv10j * netdem2

erv5dem2– An interaction term equal to 1 if endriv5j=1 and dem2=1

erv10dm2 – An interaction term equal to 1 if endrv10j=1 and dem2=1

stalea2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past twelve months; from the target’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2 in the

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previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the previous
talks was 0)

staleb2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past twenty-four months; from the
target’s point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2
in the previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the
previous talks was 0)

stalec2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past sixty months; from the target’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2 in the
previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the previous
talks was 0)

netdem1stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * stalea2

netdem2stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * staleb2

netdem5stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * stalec2

ethval2 – Does the target have ethnic co-nationals located in the disputed territory? 0 if no, 1 if
yes

netdemethval2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval2 * netdem2

ethvdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval2 * dem2

mil46unc2 – Indicates a situation of relative military parity between the target and challenger
(milrat2 is between .4 and .6)

netdemmilunc2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2* mil46unc2

allupp2 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the upper house of bicameral target
states (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1); in states where the lower
house has effective legislative power, the value for allow2 is used for allupp2

alllow2 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the lower house of the target state
(this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

leadup2 – The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the upper house of
bicameral target states (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1); in states
where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow2 is used for allupp2

leadlow2 - The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the lower house of the
target state (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

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nparty2 - The number of parties in the governing coalition in the target state (this variable only
applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

mingovc2 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the target state has a minority of seats
(allow2<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

mingovp2 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the target state holds a minority of seats
(leadlow2<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

majgovc2 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the target state has a majority of seats
(allow2>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

majgovp2 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the target state holds a majority of seats
(leadlow2>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

elecnt2 – The number of months since the last general election was held in the target state (this
variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

ele12m2 – Equals 1 if a general election has been held in the target state in the past twelve
months (elecnt2<=12); also note that this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=1

_3intgt2 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a target state is in a close race within 3 months
of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

_6intgt2 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a target state is in a close race within 6 months
of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

ndneg2 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state is significantly non-democratic; that is, if
netdem2 is less than or equal to 0; (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=0)

vndneg2 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state is very non-democratic; that is, if
netdem2 is less than or equal to -5; (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=0)

ncou1yr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced a coup within the
past twelve months (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

ncou2yr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced a coup within the
past twenty-four months (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

nvrebyr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced some form of
violent political rebellion (vrebyr2=0) in the past calendar year (this variable only applies to non-
democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

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chnd_td2 – Equals 1 if the target is the non-democratic state in a mixed dyad; that is, if dem2=0
and dem1=1

nviol20lag2 - Number of the past twenty years in which the target state has NOT experienced
violent political conflict; that is, the number of the past twenty years in which nvrebyr2=1

nviodem2- Equals 1 if the target is democratic according to the lagged, violence-based measure
of democratic norms (nviol20lag2 is 16 or higher)

_20dmlg2 – Number of the past twenty years the target state has been democratic (in which
netdem2>=6)

pnvdem2– Equals 1 if the target is democratic according to the lagged, Polity-based measure of
democratic norms (_20dmlag2 is 15 or higher)

nv20stlyr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea2)

nv20st2yr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb2)

nv20st5yr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec2)

nv20milad2 - Equals nviol20lag2 if milrat2 > .6666

nv20milmj2 - Equals nviol20lag2 if milrat2 > .5

st1dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea2)

st2dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb2)

st5dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec2)

pnormad2 - Equals _20dmlag2 if milrat2 > .6666

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pnormmj2 - Equals _20dmlag2 if milrat2 > .5

dem2yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently become
democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year or the
previous two calendar years

dem5yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently become
democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year or the
previous five calendar years

dem10yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous ten calendar years

yrsvnd2 – The number of the past twenty years in which the target has been very non-
democratic; that is, its Polity net-democracy score was –5 or less

pn4_10v2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target was free from
internal violence for 10 or fewer years during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<=10)

g10viol2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target experienced
significant internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<10, which means
the target experienced internal violence in at least 10 of the past 20 years)

g15viol2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target experienced very
high levels of internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<5, which means
the target experienced internal violence in at least 15 of the past 20 years)

ndnormmix2 – Equals 1 if the target is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according to the
lagged violence measure (noutmixdyad=1 and nviodem2=0)

mixdypolnondem2 - Equals 1 if the target is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according
to the lagged, Polity-based measure (mixdynpj=1 and pnvdem2=0)

tdrgtyp2 – The regime type of the target state, based on the following classifications: 1 if
democracy (netdem2>= 6), 2 if hereditary non-democratic monarchy, 3 if collective rule by
military junta, 4 if single-party-dominant communist state, 5 if single-party-dominant fascist
state; 9 if other

dominsec2 - Equals 1 if the regime in the target state is facing a domestic political threat (current
civil war or revolution; insurgency, coup, or attempted coup within the past calendar year)

expolsec2 – Equals 1 if the target state is facing an external political threat

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ps3dominsec2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the target is facing a domestic political threat (dominsec2=1)

ps3expolsec2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the target is facing a external political threat (expolsec2=1)

ps4ex2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have different regime types (affinitj=0), the target
is facing an external political threat (expolsec2=1) and the country constituting the external threat
has the same regime type as the challenger state (as classified by tdregtyp1)

Variables carried over from the Status Quo data set

 The next several dozen variables that you see in the Outcome data set are variables that were
originally in the Status Quo data set. They are included in the Outcome data set in order to
facilitate the estimation of a Heckman-type selection model (or similar strategic estimator), using
either dvsqngbi as the “selection” dependent variable (when attempting to explain the level of
concessions in rounds of negotiations) or dvsqesbi as the “selection” dependent variable (when
attempting to explain MID escalation). See the codebook for the Status Quo data set for more
details.

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