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who may not be familiar with mathemat- borne infections (e.g., malaria or dengue),
Modeling Infectious
ical modeling literature, Keeling and or other environmental factors.
Diseases in Humans Rohani begin with simple deterministic Furthermore, the book addresses the
and Animals models. In addition, they establish fun- role of chance and randomness in disease
damental notions, such as the basic re- transmission. The transmission of disease
By Matthew James Keeling
and Pejman Rohani productive number, epidemic curve, dy- is probabilistic in nature; when an infec-
namic equilibrium, age of infection, and tious person comes into contact with a
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, oscillatory dynamics. They further intro- susceptible person, there is a probability
2008. (not certainty) that the infection will be
duce more-refined and advanced models
408 pp., Illustrated. $65.00 (hardcover).
by incorporating heterogeneity with be- transmitted to the susceptible person.
havior or age, which accounts for vari- These models are used in mathematical
Mathematical modeling of infectious dis- epidemiology to capture realistic aspects
ability in transmission risk in real pop-
eases has progressed dramatically over the of disease transmission. However, Mod-
ulations.
past 3 decades and continues to flourish eling Infectious Diseases in Humans and
An important feature of this book is its
at the nexus of mathematics, epidemiol- Animals deals with the stochasticity in a
attempt to connect models with real-
ogy, and infectious diseases research. Now limited way, by expanding the use of sim-
world outbreaks and/or epidemics and to
recognized as a valuable tool, mathemat- ple compartmental models with randomly
parameterize each model with relevant
ical models are being integrated into the chosen parameters (noise). It also high-
public health decision-making process disease-notification data. Throughout the
lights other techniques, such as event-
more than ever before. However, despite book, various examples are used, includ-
driven approaches and individual-based
rapid advancements in this area, a formal ing childhood respiratory infections and
modeling, and discusses important fea-
training program for mathematical mod- influenza, HIV and other sexually trans-
tures of stochasticity, such as spontaneous
eling is lacking, and there are very few mitted infections, foot-and-mouth dis-
disease extinction. The book also gives an
books suitable for a broad readership. To ease, and West Nile virus.
account of various techniques that are em-
support this bridging science, a common The book also deals with more-ad-
ployed to understand the spatial distri-
language that is understood in all con- vanced concepts, such as the circulation
bution of disease and the corresponding
tributing disciplines is required. of multiple pathogens in a population and
phenomenon of synchrony in epidemics
Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans multihost transmission—ranging from
between neighboring geographic areas.
and Animals is a timely and successful at- vector-borne infections, which require
Overall, the book covers the application
tempt to fill this gap. In this volume, Kee- persistent exchange of the pathogen be-
of classic compartmental models—and
ling and Rohani cover many important tween ⭓2 species (such as malaria or West
their more recent variants—extremely
topics in mathematical modeling of infec- Nile virus infection), to infections that are well. However, the book is less inclusive
tious diseases epidemiology and introduce spread throughout an animal population when it comes to the application of net-
a number of classic and modern tech- until they are eventually transmitted to work models to the understanding of in-
niques, with a vigilant approach that in- humans (such as avian influenza, severe fectious diseases epidemiology. Despite re-
troduces and emphasizes the concepts acute respiratory syndrome, and rabies). cent advances in this area and increases in
but avoids the inclusion of extensive The book also devotes a complete chapter the application of network-based tech-
mathematical details. This recipe is ideal to another feature of import to several dis- niques to address disease spread, only 1
for a multidisciplinary field of research like
eases—that is, the characteristic oscillatory subsection of the book is allocated to the
infectious diseases epidemiology. To intro-
pattern of disease spread (as seen in the topic; this section is very brief and much
duce basic modeling concepts to readers
case of measles, chickenpox, and rubella). less coherent than other sections of the
This oscillatory behavior may arise from book.
Clinical Infectious Diseases 2008; 47:864–6 variability in contact rate among individ- To make the book accessible to a broad
2008 by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All
rights reserved. For permission to reuse, please contact
uals (e.g., contacts among school children range of readers, the authors encountered
journalpermissions@press.uchicago.edu. may vary during the school year vs. during the difficult task of striking the right bal-
1058-4838/2008/4706-0027$15.00
summer holidays), seasonal variability in ance between including an adequate num-
DOI: 10.1086/591197 the size of the host population for vector- ber of mathematical formulas, to justify