Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Company Update
BEML
Focus on new products; better WC Rating: Buy
R&M bolsters sales while M&C and defense sales drops in FY19 Target Price: INR 1,180
BEML (BEML IN) revenue rose by 7% YoY to an all-time high of INR Upside: 25%
34.8bn in FY19 as rail & metro (R&M) revenue jumped 45% YoY to INR CMP: INR 946 (as on 1 October 2019)
Global Markets Research
14.8bn and constituted 43% of total FY19 revenue (vs 31% in FY18).
Key data*
While mining & construction (M&C) revenue fell by 6% YoY to INR
Bloomberg /Reuters Code BEML IN/BEML.BO
16.5bn as equipment was down 6%, spares was slightly lower by 3%
Current /Dil. Shares O/S (mn) 42/42
and services declined by 12%. Defense revenue plunged 36% YoY to
Mkt Cap (INR bn/USD mn) 39/555
INR 32bn, the lowest in the past four years, as equipment sales declined
Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 876,929
by 55%. About 87% of product revenue was from orders through
Face Value (INR) 10
competitive bidding in FY19 vs 83% in FY18.
1 USD = INR 71.1
In-house developed product share jumps 1,200bp in FY19 Note: *as on 1 October 2019; Source: Bloomberg
Revenue from in-house developed products increased by 1,200bp YoY
to 68% in FY19. R&D spend stood at INR 710mn, down 31% YoY, and Price & Volume
contributed 2% of total FY19 revenue. In FY19, the company developed 1,200 15
new products, such as diesel electric tower cars, main line electrical 1,000
10
multiple units (MEMU), and track width mine plough. Indigenization
800
level in mainline M&C products and rail coaches & EMU was at 90%, 5
600
high mobility vehicle at 80% and metro cars at 60%+.
400 0
Working capital cycle improves with quality of receivables Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
The working capital cycle has improved by 60 days YoY to 268 in FY19. Vol. in mn (RHS) BEML (LHS)
Inventory days declined by 24 to an all-time low of 178 and receivables Source: Bloomberg
fell by 16 days to a three-year low of 169, as receivables of more than Share holding (%) Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
six months fell by 31% and constituted 36% of total receivables (vs 52% Promoter 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0
in FY18). Payables increased by 20 days to 80 in FY19. Institutional Investors 26.6 28.4 29.0 29.5
Cashflow from operations doubles in FY19 Other Investors 6.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
General Public 12.7 11.9 11.3 10.8
Despite lower profitability in FY19, a sharp improvement in the working
Source: BSE
capital cycle led to a two-fold rise in cashflow from operations to INR
2.6bn in FY19. While higher dividend (INR 8 per share in FY18 vs INR 4 Price performance (%) 3M 6M 12M
per share in FY17) and the rise in interest cost due to higher interest rate Sensex (3.5) (1.5) 4.9
led to a 28% rise in cashflow from finances to INR 1.3bn in FY19. Free BEML 3.5 (6.2) 61.7
Key Financials
YE Revenue YoY EBITDA EBITDA Adj PAT YoY Fully DEPS RoE RoCE P/E EV/EBITDA
March (INR mn) (%) (INR mn) growth (%) (INR mn) (%) (INR) (%) (%) (x) (x)
FY19 34,811 7.2 2,368 (5.7) 635 (50.9) 15.2 2.9 3.7 66.5 19.4
FY20E 39,415 13.2 2,957 24.9 1,445 127.6 34.6 6.5 7.3 27.3 15.0
FY21E 44,539 13.0 3,438 16.3 1,774 22.8 42.5 7.6 8.1 22.3 12.7
FY22E 48,162 8.1 3,722 8.3 1,969 11.0 47.1 8.1 8.5 20.1 11.6
Note: pricing as on 1 October 2019; Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
(INR mn)
Extra-ordinary Items (net) - - - - 40,000
6.8
(%)
7.0
Depreciation 696 739 771 803
35,000
EBIT 1,904 2,472 2,941 3,207
6.5
Less:- Interest Expenses 594 595 638 650 30,000
PBT 1,310 1,877 2,304 2,558
25,000 6.0
Less :- Taxes 675 432 530 588 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
PAT 635 1,445 1,774 1,969 Net Sales EBITDA margin
Adjusted PAT 635 1,445 1,774 1,969
Balance Sheet (INR mn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Share Capital 418 418 418 418
Reserves 21,455 22,293 23,385 24,596
Net Worth 21,873 22,711 23,802 25,014 Adjusted profit growth trend
Loans 4,020 6,005 5,475 5,975
3,000 127.6 150
Net Deffered Tax Liability (1,175) (1,175) (1,175) (1,175)
Capital Employed 24,717 27,541 28,103 29,814 2,000 100
(INR mn)
Gross Block 8,590 8,843 9,243 9,643 22.8
1,000 11.0 50
Less:- Accumulated Depreciation 2,391 3,131 3,902 4,706
(%)
Add:- Capital work in progress 253 400 400 400 0 0
Net Fixed Assets 6,452 6,112 5,741 5,337
(1,000) (50)
Investments 26 26 26 26 (50.9)
Net Working Capital 17,926 20,271 21,049 22,243 (2,000) (100)
Cash & Bank Balance 314 1,132 1,287 2,208 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Application of Funds 24,717 27,541 28,103 29,814 Adjusted PAT PAT growth
Cash Flow Statement (INR mn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Cash Profit adjusted for non cash items 2,678 3,211 3,713 4,011
Add/Less : Working Capital Changes 137 (2,345) (778) (1,194)
Operating Cash Flow before Tax 2,815 866 2,935 2,817
Tax (247) (432) (530) (588) Return ratios
Operating Cash Flow 2,567 434 2,405 2,229 10 8.5
8.1
Less:- Capex (638) (400) (400) (400) 7.3
8
Free Cash Flow 1,929 34 2,005 1,829
8.1
Investing Cash Flow 25 - - - 6 7.6
CF from Fin. Activity (1,288) 783 (1,850) (908) 3.7 6.5
4
Net Change in Cash 666 818 155 921
Ratio Analysis FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E 2
2.9
Income Statement Ratios (%)
0
Revenue growth 7.2 13.2 13.0 8.1 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
EBITDA growth (5.7) 24.9 16.3 8.3
ROE (%) ROCE (%)
PAT growth (50.9) 127.6 22.8 11.0
EBITDA margin 6.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Net margin 1.8 3.7 4.0 4.1
Per Share data (INR/Share)
Diluted EPS 15.2 34.6 42.5 47.1
DPS 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Book value per share 523.6 543.7 569.8 598.8
Payout (incl. Div.Tax) (%) 46.1 23.1 21.2 21.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1
Valuation (x)
P/E 66.5 27.3 22.3 20.1
EV/EBITDA 19.4 15.0 12.7 11.6
EV/Sales 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
Price/Book value 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6
Return and Liquidity Ratios
Net debt/Equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
ROE (%) 2.9 6.5 7.6 8.1
ROCE (%) 3.7 7.3 8.1 8.5
Note: pricing as on 1 October 2019; Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Indigenization becomes key focal point Exhibit 3: R&D as a % of total sales at 2% in FY19
Import substitution is a major drive of the Government of 1,200 4
India (GoI). As part of its zero import policy, the company 1,000
intends to enter into joint ventures for local production of 3
(INR mn)
800
defense spares, aggregates, cabins and high value metro
(%)
car aggregates with renowned MNC. Accordingly, it has 600 2
launched for the first time an indigenous design and 400
manufactured large-size electric dump trucks. 1
200
Exhibit 1: Indigenization level in key products 0 0
Indigenization FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Capital Goods
Mainline M&C 90 90 90 90 90 R&D expenses as % of sales
R&D as a % of sales declines by 100bp to 2% in FY19 A sharp rise in raw material cost may drag margin as
import content in rail & metro, the fastest-growing
Research & development (R&D) expenses declined by
segment, stands at 40%. A slowdown in execution may
30% YoY to INR 710mn in FY19. R&D costs as a percentage
lead to lower revenue and a delay in order inflows due to
of total revenue stood at 2% in FY19 vs 3% in FY18. The
approvals may drag revenue.
company developed two new products in railways —
diesel electric tower cars and electric multiple units — and
one in defense, ie, track width mine plough. It also
upgraded 22 products across all verticals.
Exhibit 5: Revenue split in product, spares & services Exhibit 6: In-house product sales up 1,200bp YoY
40,000 80
30,000
60
(%)
(INR mn)
20,000
40
10,000
20
0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Earth Moving Equipment Spare Parts 0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Equipment Servicing Rail & Metro Products
Defence Products Wind Energy Sales from in-house R&D developed products
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 7: Rise in value of production per employee Exhibit 8: Employee count declines every year
36,000 6 12,000 0
5 10,000 (2)
34,000
(nos)
(INR mn)
8,000
(INR/employee)
(%)
32,000 (4)
3 6,000
(6)
30,000 4,000
2
2,000 (8)
28,000 1
0 (10)
26,000 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Value of production VoP/employee No. of employees Employee growth
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 9: Interest costs rises on higher WC debt Exhibit 10: Cashflow from operations doubles in FY19
800 30 6,000
700 20 4,000
600 10
(INR mn)
(INR mn)
2,000
500
(%)
0
400 0
(10)
300 (2,000)
200 (20)
(30) (4,000)
100
0 (40) (6,000)
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 11: Sharp decline in > six months receivables Exhibit 12: WC cycle improves YoY
18,000 325
16,000
14,000 275
12,000
(INR mn)
225
10,000
(days)
8,000 175
6,000
4,000 125
2,000
75
0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 25
More than six months receivables FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Contingent liability
Commitments
Capital Goods
Estimated amount of contracts remaining to be
525 153
executed on capital account and not provided
Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 14: BEML anticipated inflow opportunity and new developments in FY19
Inflows opportunity New developments may lead to inflows
Exhibit 15: BEML R&D facilities engagement in three business verticals in FY19
Defence Rail & Metro Mining and construction
Coverage History
2,500
2,000
1
1,500 2
3 4
1,000
Capital Goods
5
500
0
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Apr-19
May-19
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
May-17
Dec-17
Aug-17
Apr-18
May-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Aug-19
Sep-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Sep-19
Feb-17
Nov-17
Sep-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Oct-16
Jul-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-17
Mar-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Oct-19
Not Covered Covered
Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed to Elara Securities (India) Private
Limited.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited was incorporated in July 2007 as a subsidiary of Elara Capital (India) Private Limited.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is a SEBI registered Stock Broker in the Capital Market and Futures & Options Segments of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited [NSE], in the Capital Market Segment of BSE Limited [BSE] and a Depository Participant registered with Central Depository Services (India) Limited [CDSL].
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited’s business, amongst other things, is to undertake all associated activities relating to its broking business.
The activities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom it is registered in
last five years. However, during the routine course of inspection and based on observations, the exchanges have issued advise letters or levied minor penalties on
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited for minor operational deviations in certain cases. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited has not been debarred from doing
business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has the certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited offers research services primarily to institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are
registered or proposed to be registered.
Details of Associates of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited are available on group company website www.elaracapital.com
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is maintaining arms-length relationship with its associate entities.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) may have financial interest in the subject company. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited does not have any financial interest
in the subject company, whereas its associate entities may have financial interest. Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have actual/beneficial ownership of
1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Elara Securities (India)
Private Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date
of publication of Research Report. Associate entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the
subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or Elara Securities
(India) Private Limited or its associate entities does not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the Research Report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Associate
entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara
Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve
months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking
or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities may
have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company or
third party in connection with the Research Report in the past twelve months.
8
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not manage an offering for BEML Limited.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not receive compensation from BEML Limited in the last 12 months.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate does not expect to receive compensation from BEML Limited in the next 3 months.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or
strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice,
and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the
interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please
note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a
different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that
investment to the investor. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment
decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of
particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable
for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute “forward-looking statements.” These “forward-looking statements” are not
guarantees of future performance and are based on numerous current assumptions that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual future
performance could differ materially from these “forward-looking statements” and financial information.
9
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Ravi Sundar Muthukrishnan Ph.D Head - Institutional Equity Research ravi.muthukrishnan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8572
Research
Abhishek Shindadkar Analyst IT Services, Internet abhishek.shindadkar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8502
Akhil Parekh Analyst Midcap akhil.parekh@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8519
Ankita Shah Analyst Infrastructure, Ports & Logistics ankita.shah@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8516
Biju Samuel Analyst Quantitative & Alternate Strategy biju.samuel@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8505
Gagan Dixit Analyst Oil & Gas, Aviation gagan.dixit@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8504
Garima Kapoor Economist garima.kapoor@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8527
Harshit Kapadia Analyst Capital Goods harshit.kapadia@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8542
Karan Taurani Analyst Media & Entertainment karan.taurani@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8513
Jay Kale, CFA Analyst Auto & Auto Ancillaries jay.kale@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8507
Param Desai Analyst Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate param.desai@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8528
Pradeep Kumar Kesavan, CFA Analyst Strategy pradeep.kesavan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8541
Pratik Tholiya Analyst Agrochemicals, Travel & Hospitality pratik.tholiya@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8518
Rakesh Kumar Analyst Banking & Financials rakesh.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8559
Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement, Building Materials ravi.sodah@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8517
Ritika Dua Analyst Diversified Financials ritika.dua@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8526
Rupesh Sankhe Analyst Utilities, Renewables, Capital Goods rupesh.sankhe@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8581
Sagarika Mukherjee Analyst FMCG, Dairy sagarika.mukherjee@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8594
Saurabh Mitra Sr. Associate Cement, Building Materials saurabh.mitra@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8546
Ankeet Pandya Associate Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Real Estate ankeet.pandya@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8535
Anushka Chhajed Associate Strategy anushka.chhajed@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8536
Ashish Agrawal Associate IT Services, Internet ashish.agrawal@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8573
Chintan Shah Associate Banking & Financials chintan.shah@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8521
Jatan Gogri Associate Economics jatan.gogri@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8591
Pratik Poddar Associate Diversified Financials pratik.poddar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8506
Rachael Alva Associate Oil & Gas, Aviation rachael.alva@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8525
Rohit Harlikar Associate FMCG, Dairy rohit.harlikar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8562
Vijay Gyanchandani Associate Auto & Auto Ancillaries vijay.gyanchandani@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8511
Viren Deshpande Associate Media & Entertainment viren.deshpande@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8565
Vinayak Patil Database vinayak.patil@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8510
Priyanka Sheth Editor priyanka.sheth@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8568
Gurunath Parab Production gurunath.parab@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8515
Jinesh Bhansali Production jinesh.bhansali@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8537
Access our reports on Bloomberg: Type ESEC <GO> Also available on Thomson & Reuters
10