Hungry Dawg Restaurants

Initial Conditions Assumptions

Number of Covered Employees 18,533 Increasing 2% per month
Average Claim per Employee $250 Increasing 1% per month
Amount Contributed per Employee $125 Constant

Number of Employee Avg Claim Total Company

Month Employees Contributions per Emp. Claims Cost
1 18,904 $2,363,000 $252.50 $4,773,260 $2,410,260
2 19,282 $2,410,250 $255.03 $4,917,488 $2,507,238
3 19,667 $2,458,375 $257.58 $5,065,826 $2,607,451
4 20,061 $2,507,625 $260.15 $5,218,869 $2,711,244
5 20,462 $2,557,750 $262.75 $5,376,391 $2,818,641
6 20,871 $2,608,875 $265.38 $5,538,746 $2,929,871
7 21,289 $2,661,125 $268.03 $5,706,091 $3,044,966
8 21,714 $2,714,250 $270.71 $5,878,197 $3,163,947
9 22,149 $2,768,625 $273.42 $6,055,980 $3,287,355
10 22,592 $2,824,000 $276.16 $6,239,007 $3,415,007
11 23,043 $2,880,375 $278.92 $6,427,154 $3,546,779
12 23,504 $2,938,000 $281.71 $6,621,312 $3,683,312
Total Company Cost $36,126,069
PortaCom Risk Analysis

Basic Risk Analysis Probaility Inputs

Selling Price Per Unit $249 Direct Labor Cost/Unit $45
Administrative Cost $400,000 Parts Cost /Unit $90
Advertising Cost $600,000 First Year Demand (Units) 15,000

Estimate First Year Profitability $710,000 =(B4-E4-E5)*E6-B5-B6

What if Analysis Worst Best

Direct Labor Cost/Unit $47 $43
Parts Cost /Unit $100 $80
First Year Demand (Units) 1,500 28,500

Estimate First Year Profitability ($847,000) $2,591,000

=(B4-D12-D13)*D14-B5-B6 =(B4-E12-E13)*E14-B5-B6

Direct Labor Cost/Unit Probability Parts Cost (Uniform Distribution) Demand (Normal Distribution)
$43 0.1 Smallest Value $80 Mean
$44 0.2 Largest Value $100 Std Deviation
$45 0.4 Part Cost = SV+RAND()*(LV-SV) Demand=NORMINV(RAND(),μ, σ)
$46 0.2
$47 0.1
Sum 1

Summary Statistics Result Excel@ Formula

Mean Profit $216,340 =AVERAGE(O55:O57)
Standard Deviation $962,498 =STDEV(O55:O57)
Min Profit ($592,547) =MIN(O55:O57)
Max Profit $1,280,843 =MAX(O55:O57)
Number of Losses 2 =COUNTIF(O55:O57,"<0")
Number of Trials 3 =COUNT(O55:O57)
Probability of Loss 66.67% =B31/B32
Standard Error $555,698 =STDEV(O55:O57)/SQRT(B32)
Margin of Error $1,089,149 =NORMINV(0.975,0,1)*B34
Lower 95% Limit ($872,809) =B27-B35
Upper 95% Limit $1,305,489 =B27+B35

8784.34416726172
 (Normal Distribution)
15000
4500
=NORMINV(RAND(),μ, σ)

Direct Labor Cost/Unit Cumulative Random No. Intervals

Cost $/Unit Probability Probability From To
$43 0.1 0.10 0 0.10
$44 0.2 0.30 0.10 0.30
$45 0.4 0.70 0.30 0.70
$46 0.2 0.90 0.70 0.90
$47 0.1 1.00 0.90 1.00
Sum 1

Parts Cost (Uniform Distribution)

RN Part Cost =Smallest + RAND()*(Largest -Smallest)
0.8484 $96.97 =$D$19+H36*($D$20-$D$19)
=RAND()
Demand (Normal Distribution)
RN Demand =NORMINV(RAND(),mean, std)
0.1170 9,644 =NORMINV(H40,$F$19,$F$20)
=RAND()
Random Number or Probability RAND() is partically implemented in Excel@ formulas
Direct labor Parts
Trial RN Cost/Unit RN Cost/Unit
1 0.3462 $45.00 0.9050 $98.10
 2 0.9596 $47.00 0.2272 $84.54
3 0.1592 $44.00 0.7728 $95.46
=VLOOKUP(I45,$K$27:$M$31,3)
=$D$19+K45*($D$20-$D$19)
Random Number or Probability RAND() is fully implemented in Excel@ formulas
Direct labor Parts First Year
Trial Cost/Unit Cost/Unit Demand Net Profit $
1 $45.00 $81.69 16,462 $1,013,434
2 $47.00 $92.51 20,257 $1,217,951
3 $44.00 $99.80 11,924 $254,336
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$K$27:$M$31,3)
=$D$19+RAND()*($D$20-$D$19)
=NORMINV(RAND(),$F$19,$F$20)
=($B$4-I53-J53)*K53-$B$5-$B$6
 H I J
Cost 25 Direct Labor Cost/Unit Cumulative
($)/Unit 26 Cost $/Unit Probability Probability
$43 27 $43 0.1
$44 28 $44 0.2
$45 29 $45 0.4
$46 30 $46 0.2
$47 31 $47 0.1
32 Sum 1
33
34 Parts Cost (Uniform Distribution)
-Smallest) 35 RN Part Cost
36 0.0014
37
38 Demand (Normal Distribution)
d) 39 RN Demand
40 0.5197
41
cel@ formulas =NORMINV(M45,$F$19,$F$20) 42 Random Number or Probability RAND() is partically implemented
First Year 43 Direct labor
RN Demand Net Profit $ 44 Trial RN Cost/Unit
0.0066 3,847.53 ($592,547) 45 1 0.3462
 0.0648 8,179 ($39,276) 46 2 0.9596
0.9021 20,821 $1,280,843 47 3 0.1592
=($B$4-J45-L45)*N45-$B$5-$B$6 48
$D$19+K45*($D$20-$D$19) 49
50 Random Number or Probability RAND() is fully implemented in E
51 Direct labor Parts
52 Trial Cost/Unit Cost/Unit
53 1 $45.00 $95.39
54 2 $43.00 $90.14
55 3 $44.00 $80.44
56 =VLOOKUP(RAND(),$K$27:$M$31,3)
57 =$D$19+RAND()*($D$20-$D
AND(),$F$19,$F$20) 58
($B$4-I53-J53)*K53-$B$5-$B$6 59
 K L M N O
Random No. Intervals Cost A B
From To ($)/Unit Summary Statistics Results
$43 Mean Profit
$44 Standard Deviation
$45 Min Profit
$46 Max Profit
$47 Number of Losses
Number of Trials
Probability of Loss
Standard Error
Margin of Error
Lower 95% Limit
Upper 95% Limit

is partically implemented in Excel@ formulas

Parts First Year
RN Cost/Unit RN Demand Net Profit $
0.9050 0.0066
 0.2272 0.0648
0.7728 0.9021

is fully implemented in Excel@ formulas

First Year
Demand Net Profit $
9,994 $85,400
10,296 $192,846
14,979 $865,773
D(),$K$27:$M$31,3)
D$19+RAND()*($D$20-$D$19)
=NORMINV(RAND(),$F$19,$F$20)
=($B$4-I53-J53)*K53-$B$5-$B$6
 C
Excel@ Formula
 Net Profit Net Profit
-600000
Mean 721,415 =AVERAGE(E121:E620) -300000
Standard Error 24,029 =STDEV(E121:E620)/SQRT(B15) 0
Median 741,847 300000
Mode #N/A 600000
Standard Deviation 537,314 =STDEV(E121:E620) 900000
Sample Variance 2.8871E+11 1200000
Kurtosis 0.39237 1500000
Skewness (0.22063) 1800000
Range 3,097,796 2100000
Minimum (965,849) =MIN(E121:E6200) 2400000
Maximum 2,131,947 =MAX(E121:E620) 2700000
Sum 3.6071E+08 More
Count 500 =COUNT(A121:A620) Number of Losses
Largest(100) 1,134,089 Probability of Loss
Smallest(100) 299,340 Std Error of % Loss
Confidence Level(95.0%) 47,211 =TINV(0.05,B15-1)*B4 Margin of Error (%)
Lower 95% Limit 674,204 =B3-B18 Lower 95% Limit
Upper 95% Limit 768,627 =B3+B18 Upper 95% Limit

Profit Bins Net Profit Histogram

Min -600000
140
Frequency

-300000
Frequency
Cumulative
0 % 119
120
300000 104 100.00% 100.00% 100.
600000 97.00% 99.60%
100 93.60%
900000 89
82.60%
80 1200000
1500000
61.80%
60 1800000 55 55
2100000
40 2400000
29 38.00%
2700000
20 17
20.20% 13
8 9
Net Profit 2 0 0
0 9.20%
1.60% 3.40%
-6.00E+05-3.00E+05 0.00E+00 3.00E+05 6.00E+05 9.00E+05 1.20E+06 1.50E+06 1.80E+06 2.10E+06 2.40E+06 2.70E+06 Mo

1.96472939098769
 Frequency Cumulative %
8 1.60%
9 3.40%
29 9.20%
55 20.20%
89 38.00%
119 61.80%
104 82.60%
55 93.60%
17 97.00%
13 99.60%
2 100.00%
0 100.00%
0 100.00%
46 =COUNTIF(E121:E620,"<0")
9.20% =E15/B15
1.293% =SQRT(E16*(1-E16)/B15)
2.53% =NORMSINV(0.975)*E17
6.67% =E16-E18
11.73% =E16+E18

120.00%

100.00%
0% 99.60% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%
13
2 0 0
0.00%
+06 2.10E+06 2.40E+06 2.70E+06 More
 Net Profit Frequency Cumulative %
-600000 8 1.60%
-300000 9 3.40% Histogram
0 29 9.20% 140

Frequency
Frequency
300000 55 20.20% 119
120 Cumulative %
600000 89 38.00% 104
900000 119 61.80% 100 93.60% 97.00
89
1200000 104 82.60% 82.60%
1500000 55 93.60% 80
1800000 17 97.00% 60 55 61.80% 55
2100000 13 99.60%
2400000 2 100.00% 40
29 38.00%
2700000 0 100.00%
20 17
More 0 100.00% 8 9 20.20%
0 9.20%
1.60% 3.40%
5 5 0 5 5 5 6 6 6
E+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 Net EProfit
+0 E+0
.0
0
.0
0 00 00 00 00 20 50 80
-6 -3 0. 3. 6. 9. 1. 1. 1.

140

Frequency 119
120
Cumulative %
104 97.0
100 93.60%
89
82.60%
80

61.80%
60 55 55

40 38.00%
29

20 1
8 9 20.20%
9.20%
0
1.60% 3.40%
0) 0) .0
0 00 00 00 00 00 00
0 .0 0 .0 0 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
,0 ,0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
00 00 30 60 90 20 50 80
(6 (3 1 , 1 , 1 , 2,
Net Profit
 Histogram
120.00%
119
100.00%
104 99.60% 100.00%100.00%100.00%
93.60% 97.00%
80.00%
82.60%

60.00%
61.80% 55
40.00%

17 20.00%
13
2 0 0
0.00%
5 6 6 6 6 6 6 e
E+0 E+0 Net EProfit
+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 E+0 or
0 M
20 50 80 10 40 70
1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.

120.00%

119
100.00%
104 100.00%100.00%100.00%
97.00% 99.60%
93.60%
80.00%
82.60%

60.00%
61.80%
55

40.00%
%

17 20.00%
13
2 0 0
0.00%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e
0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 or
M
00 00 00 00 00 00 00
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20 50 80 10 40 70
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2,
Net Profit
PortaCom Risk Analysis

Selling Price Per Unit $249

Administrative Cost $400,000
Advertising Cost $600,000

Direct Labor Cost Parts Cost (Uniform Distribution)

Lower Upper Smallest Value $80
Random No. Random No. Cost per Unit Largest Value $100
0.0 0.1 $43
0.1 0.3 $44
0.3 0.7 $45 Demand (Normal Distribution)
0.7 0.9 $46 Mean 15000
0.9 1.0 $47 Std Deviation 4500

=NORMINV(RAND(),$E$13,$E$14)
Simulation Trials =$E$8+RAND()*($E$9-$E$8)
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$A$10:$C$14,3) =($C$3-B21-C21)*D21-$C$4-$C$5
Direct labor Parts First Year
Trial Cost/Unit Cost/Unit Demand Profit
1 $44.00 $89.64 15,648 $805,187
2 $47.00 $92.29 9,164 $5,391
3 $46.00 $97.18 16,673 $764,362
4 $45.00 $97.28 19,577 $1,089,285
5 $43.00 $98.07 11,127 $200,887
6 $44.00 $86.95 16,379 $933,573
7 $45.00 $99.59 16,201 $691,580
8 $45.00 $81.51 14,543 $781,325
9 $45.00 $82.05 13,646 $664,116
10 $44.00 $84.62 5,665 ($318,010)
11 $43.00 $87.58 11,900 $409,282
12 $46.00 $82.24 13,729 $657,988
13 $44.00 $87.54 11,706 $374,950
14 $46.00 $84.12 16,816 $998,951
15 $43.00 $91.08 17,839 $1,050,009
16 $44.00 $81.49 -806 ($1,099,514)
17 $44.00 $81.14 17,149 $1,123,991
18 $44.00 $87.93 12,043 $409,866
19 $43.00 $86.95 19,325 $1,300,649
20 $47.00 $96.63 12,988 $368,611
21 $45.00 $98.58 23,512 $1,478,605
22 $45.00 $90.65 20,842 $1,362,531
23 $45.00 $95.43 18,830 $1,044,293
24 $45.00 $90.79 7,649 ($134,042)
25 $46.00 $87.23 13,117 $518,569
26 $45.00 $99.78 12,925 $347,046
27 $45.00 $83.41 11,267 $358,665
28 $43.00 $92.00 16,933 $930,375
29 $43.00 $82.23 8,017 ($7,782)
30 $46.00 $95.02 5,757 ($378,434)
31 $44.00 $85.70 12,586 $501,610
32 $47.00 $82.45 17,891 $1,138,805
33 $46.00 $98.01 19,545 $1,051,997
34 $46.00 $86.89 13,738 $595,201
35 $44.00 $96.30 24,424 $1,654,968
36 $44.00 $82.60 9,610 $176,251
37 $47.00 $87.65 26,636 $2,045,806
38 $47.00 $96.93 6,768 ($288,906)
39 $44.00 $92.07 10,412 $175,908
40 $45.00 $96.62 13,436 $442,806
41 $44.00 $86.44 18,937 $1,245,132
42 $47.00 $93.14 10,820 $177,850
43 $45.00 $89.24 13,519 $551,463
44 $44.00 $94.75 18,755 $1,067,782
45 $45.00 $99.35 19,350 $1,024,986
46 $43.00 $93.83 14,587 $636,204
47 $46.00 $92.48 18,739 $1,070,972
48 $45.00 $81.48 20,976 $1,570,008
49 $43.00 $82.10 20,976 $1,598,922
50 $44.00 $87.98 9,076 $62,072
51 $45.00 $81.56 11,429 $399,365
52 $47.00 $84.42 12,156 $429,280
53 $43.00 $85.57 12,925 $556,537
54 $43.00 $95.22 20,600 $1,282,101
55 $46.00 $89.45 11,734 $332,407
56 $44.00 $99.88 3,452 ($637,113)
57 $44.00 $84.92 15,527 $864,481
58 $45.00 $91.27 14,333 $615,787
59 $46.00 $97.64 10,999 $158,913
60 $45.00 $86.28 21,271 $1,504,043
61 $45.00 $92.52 12,598 $404,405
62 $47.00 $87.10 18,302 $1,102,839
63 $46.00 $99.09 19,151 $990,033
64 $46.00 $82.03 16,157 $954,581
65 $45.00 $99.09 8,366 ($122,306)
66 $44.00 $97.27 10,676 $150,096
67 $46.00 $89.00 22,997 $1,621,553
68 $45.00 $97.39 17,259 $839,975
69 $45.00 $82.77 19,921 $1,415,114
70 $45.00 $98.48 13,278 $401,094
 71 $45.00 $98.10 11,679 $236,818
72 $43.00 $85.36 17,619 $1,125,655
73 $44.00 $90.52 11,006 $260,031
74 $47.00 $83.19 13,505 $604,463
75 $46.00 $98.35 14,196 $485,602
76 $44.00 $83.67 17,731 $1,151,363
77 $46.00 $89.88 17,580 $988,594
78 $45.00 $85.47 17,543 $1,079,348
79 $46.00 $82.97 8,537 $24,664
80 $46.00 $99.46 6,220 ($356,024)
81 $45.00 $84.96 18,356 $1,185,223
82 $47.00 $95.44 11,772 $254,451
83 $44.00 $86.61 11,126 $317,166
84 $45.00 $83.62 11,447 $378,000
85 $44.00 $92.59 13,527 $520,568
86 $44.00 $85.95 6,186 ($263,521)
87 $46.00 $95.85 11,806 $264,989
88 $44.00 $87.30 16,310 $919,644
89 $46.00 $82.41 15,380 $854,667
90 $45.00 $86.66 15,846 $859,283
91 $45.00 $83.58 18,354 $1,210,127
92 $45.00 $85.63 20,236 $1,395,422
93 $46.00 $83.70 22,079 $1,634,096
94 $47.00 $91.17 15,635 $732,924
95 $47.00 $97.45 11,530 $205,490
96 $46.00 $82.85 15,912 $911,819
97 $44.00 $83.34 17,376 $1,114,041
98 $45.00 $87.35 21,907 $1,555,316
99 $45.00 $94.42 10,569 $158,109
100 $43.00 $83.22 15,075 $850,907
101 $45.00 $80.65 13,134 $620,074
102 $46.00 $85.15 12,210 $438,973
103 $45.00 $84.04 9,654 $158,094
104 $44.00 $97.90 10,882 $165,476
105 $45.00 $91.31 12,680 $428,903
106 $45.00 $98.29 9,992 $56,257
107 $47.00 $96.95 18,832 $978,259
108 $45.00 $95.92 18,397 $988,284
109 $45.00 $89.36 10,572 $212,033
110 $47.00 $84.78 15,571 $825,272
111 $45.00 $83.26 22,015 $1,658,026
112 $45.00 $97.89 13,385 $420,376
113 $46.00 $85.46 17,924 $1,106,754
114 $45.00 $94.37 18,622 $1,041,641
115 $45.00 $94.89 18,757 $1,046,477
116 $46.00 $95.71 9,891 $61,249
117 $43.00 $86.57 15,557 $857,977
118 $46.00 $80.30 20,037 $1,458,545
119 $46.00 $83.43 11,385 $361,243
120 $45.00 $80.81 14,411 $775,323
121 $43.00 $89.63 21,173 $1,463,960
122 $45.00 $99.99 15,160 $576,842
123 $45.00 $96.05 19,994 $1,158,359
124 $45.00 $90.65 7,440 ($156,634)
125 $43.00 $86.86 16,008 $907,188
126 $43.00 $97.26 12,866 $399,148
127 $46.00 $80.89 24,138 $1,947,441
128 $45.00 $94.96 17,823 $943,375
129 $43.00 $87.94 12,706 $500,022
130 $43.00 $88.93 7,842 ($81,954)
131 $45.00 $93.19 17,720 $963,580
132 $46.00 $92.00 12,446 $381,601
133 $45.00 $85.37 9,773 $159,420
134 $46.00 $89.07 19,348 $1,204,352
135 $45.00 $96.88 7,733 ($171,689)
136 $47.00 $92.45 19,372 $1,122,235
137 $47.00 $98.92 12,953 $335,116
138 $45.00 $86.06 20,800 $1,453,270
139 $45.00 $88.28 20,922 $1,421,154
140 $44.00 $98.75 12,285 $305,323
141 $43.00 $83.99 8,097 ($12,129)
142 $44.00 $97.46 15,765 $695,438
143 $46.00 $98.17 10,023 $50,735
144 $44.00 $96.53 11,871 $287,618
145 $45.00 $96.99 11,752 $257,573
146 $46.00 $94.56 6,980 ($243,108)
147 $46.00 $96.60 20,588 $1,190,696
148 $45.00 $82.78 13,532 $640,385
149 $43.00 $83.03 12,862 $581,663
150 $45.00 $85.03 21,587 $1,568,150
151 $45.00 $87.11 17,396 $1,033,377
152 $43.00 $91.64 23,168 $1,649,561
153 $43.00 $81.34 13,659 $702,812
154 $43.00 $86.76 15,246 $817,927
155 $45.00 $84.42 19,082 $1,281,906
156 $44.00 $99.42 18,495 $952,778
157 $45.00 $97.27 8,922 ($47,768)
158 $45.00 $94.65 17,525 $916,287
159 $46.00 $83.82 15,556 $853,960
160 $44.00 $93.87 16,138 $793,399
161 $45.00 $99.35 8,915 ($67,020)
162 $44.00 $83.21 17,534 $1,135,437
163 $46.00 $85.53 16,498 $938,003
164 $45.00 $88.25 16,189 $873,968
165 $45.00 $98.24 16,008 $693,069
166 $46.00 $87.80 8,513 ($19,309)
167 $45.00 $87.10 7,262 ($151,098)
168 $44.00 $84.82 16,608 $995,823
169 $45.00 $96.55 12,832 $378,863
170 $46.00 $92.31 20,683 $1,289,396
171 $46.00 $82.68 11,972 $440,535
172 $47.00 $82.61 16,912 $1,019,182
173 $43.00 $87.84 22,167 $1,619,115
174 $45.00 $97.75 16,653 $769,414
175 $44.00 $98.17 15,510 $656,973
176 $45.00 $95.87 19,380 $1,095,658
177 $45.00 $88.35 9,614 $111,883
178 $43.00 $83.23 8,925 $95,801
179 $45.00 $95.34 17,994 $955,208
180 $45.00 $94.33 10,933 $199,022
181 $46.00 $95.77 15,634 $676,528
182 $47.00 $84.93 14,103 $651,028
183 $45.00 $92.49 12,161 $356,172
184 $44.00 $85.58 14,365 $715,541
185 $45.00 $83.69 17,429 $1,096,860
186 $45.00 $95.77 12,687 $373,172
187 $47.00 $92.35 12,429 $362,846
188 $45.00 $96.62 14,531 $560,268
189 $45.00 $83.95 16,689 $1,003,501
190 $47.00 $80.59 2,965 ($639,973)
191 $44.00 $88.28 12,280 $433,362
192 $45.00 $83.87 16,249 $952,022
193 $45.00 $85.90 13,172 $555,634
194 $46.00 $89.76 23,199 $1,626,987
195 $45.00 $96.48 13,550 $456,804
196 $47.00 $95.15 10,533 $125,395
197 $47.00 $81.23 13,064 $577,762
198 $45.00 $89.75 21,129 $1,413,935
199 $44.00 $98.46 16,791 $788,858
200 $45.00 $86.87 25,787 $2,020,372
201 $43.00 $89.48 17,568 $1,046,998
202 $45.00 $80.96 11,815 $453,830
203 $46.00 $80.90 17,101 $1,088,033
204 $45.00 $88.00 13,051 $513,841
205 $46.00 $88.36 5,695 ($347,084)
206 $45.00 $90.30 15,401 $751,106
207 $43.00 $87.30 17,053 $1,024,184
208 $45.00 $99.43 18,651 $950,366
209 $45.00 $85.48 19,088 $1,262,346
210 $47.00 $82.25 14,712 $761,846
211 $47.00 $94.18 20,731 $1,235,251
212 $45.00 $92.54 22,877 $1,549,924
213 $46.00 $82.32 21,022 $1,536,905
214 $45.00 $87.88 19,887 $1,309,253
215 $44.00 $88.45 9,291 $82,765
216 $43.00 $82.45 12,697 $568,751
217 $44.00 $82.72 17,362 $1,123,070
218 $45.00 $82.93 7,281 ($118,515)
219 $47.00 $83.82 18,332 $1,166,454
220 $46.00 $93.46 17,412 $907,280
221 $43.00 $84.13 14,651 $785,532
222 $43.00 $83.35 16,375 $1,008,367
223 $44.00 $94.04 9,887 $97,134
224 $47.00 $86.58 14,835 $712,190
225 $44.00 $96.36 13,952 $515,809
226 $46.00 $83.03 17,667 $1,119,484
227 $45.00 $99.74 24,829 $1,588,547
228 $43.00 $82.32 7,762 ($39,921)
229 $46.00 $94.81 18,356 $985,953
230 $44.00 $81.04 11,217 $390,501
231 $45.00 $91.59 14,136 $589,039
232 $43.00 $85.47 12,777 $540,052
233 $45.00 $89.18 19,546 $1,244,158
234 $43.00 $82.37 12,267 $516,585
235 $45.00 $87.57 16,098 $874,372
236 $45.00 $84.74 12,994 $549,614
237 $45.00 $95.63 20,188 $1,187,728
238 $45.00 $88.44 19,551 $1,259,405
239 $45.00 $99.98 11,364 $182,114
240 $45.00 $95.10 16,749 $823,996
241 $47.00 $94.55 11,934 $282,360
242 $46.00 $88.92 13,574 $548,583
243 $45.00 $87.70 14,802 $721,412
244 $43.00 $85.18 19,441 $1,348,879
245 $46.00 $99.92 12,860 $325,648
246 $45.00 $88.11 25,857 $1,996,487
247 $46.00 $86.72 24,849 $1,889,374
248 $45.00 $84.39 14,732 $761,991
249 $45.00 $80.26 12,253 $516,196
250 $46.00 $87.93 12,019 $383,062
251 $45.00 $81.67 16,830 $1,058,916
252 $43.00 $85.17 16,673 $1,014,544
253 $45.00 $94.75 23,189 $1,533,379
254 $44.00 $90.05 14,890 $711,565
255 $47.00 $86.52 14,480 $672,135
256 $47.00 $93.64 13,591 $472,634
257 $45.00 $81.95 24,714 $2,016,209
258 $45.00 $98.53 2,706 ($714,569)
259 $43.00 $96.69 13,512 $477,006
260 $46.00 $92.25 13,842 $533,088
261 $43.00 $87.92 15,617 $844,091
262 $46.00 $80.67 17,082 $1,089,606
263 $46.00 $90.59 17,019 $913,040
264 $45.00 $93.97 16,268 $790,034
265 $45.00 $89.16 20,624 $1,368,477
266 $46.00 $95.55 15,961 $714,962
267 $45.00 $94.92 13,164 $435,896
268 $46.00 $99.68 12,901 $332,871
269 $45.00 $93.66 9,254 $21,139
270 $45.00 $97.89 14,030 $488,629
271 $47.00 $83.40 12,818 $520,200
272 $43.00 $83.10 17,134 $1,105,858
273 $45.00 $86.27 6,029 ($290,195)
274 $44.00 $96.26 19,489 $1,119,303
275 $43.00 $89.69 18,009 $1,094,544
276 $45.00 $95.74 13,020 $409,573
277 $43.00 $82.36 20,760 $1,566,794
278 $45.00 $84.06 15,219 $825,384
279 $45.00 $96.73 14,098 $512,389
280 $44.00 $82.67 16,033 $961,225
281 $47.00 $87.57 18,162 $1,078,343
282 $45.00 $89.10 11,911 $368,592
283 $47.00 $93.35 13,512 $468,059
284 $45.00 $88.44 11,330 $309,298
285 $45.00 $89.58 18,041 $1,064,287
286 $47.00 $82.29 18,777 $1,247,841
287 $43.00 $83.91 14,360 $753,280
288 $46.00 $88.89 15,466 $764,907
289 $46.00 $80.01 15,034 $849,013
290 $46.00 $86.84 14,188 $648,059
291 $45.00 $82.79 19,844 $1,405,390
292 $45.00 $92.10 16,459 $841,731
293 $45.00 $90.85 20,730 $1,345,537
294 $45.00 $86.65 15,540 $823,586
295 $46.00 $93.38 11,080 $214,601
296 $46.00 $99.43 17,758 $839,216
297 $45.00 $89.78 8,555 ($22,829)
298 $45.00 $89.86 20,105 $1,294,837
299 $44.00 $90.25 16,875 $936,436
300 $44.00 $98.96 20,735 $1,198,667
301 $45.00 $81.00 16,781 $1,064,100
302 $44.00 $83.19 15,926 $939,887
303 $46.00 $99.75 12,013 $240,274
304 $46.00 $88.50 22,910 $1,623,172
305 $44.00 $93.22 13,390 $496,742
306 $45.00 $98.10 8,902 ($57,292)
307 $46.00 $83.86 13,813 $645,632
308 $46.00 $96.78 15,706 $668,403
309 $45.00 $97.85 14,108 $497,555
310 $43.00 $91.48 16,314 $868,227
311 $45.00 $89.30 17,360 $991,194
312 $45.00 $86.69 12,048 $413,380
313 $45.00 $90.62 14,678 $664,106
314 $47.00 $81.45 17,913 $1,159,385
315 $45.00 $86.48 22,447 $1,638,066
316 $45.00 $81.58 13,644 $670,276
317 $45.00 $83.63 19,004 $1,287,473
318 $45.00 $86.28 20,332 $1,393,555
319 $47.00 $96.72 24,761 $1,606,748
320 $45.00 $93.82 13,389 $475,242
321 $47.00 $94.63 14,147 $518,917
322 $44.00 $81.30 24,070 $1,977,430
323 $44.00 $95.16 16,578 $820,883
324 $44.00 $99.55 12,573 $325,832
325 $46.00 $98.66 14,322 $494,314
326 $45.00 $95.03 11,715 $276,586
327 $44.00 $92.87 7,679 ($138,938)
328 $45.00 $83.31 21,805 $1,631,714
329 $45.00 $83.15 14,288 $726,725
330 $46.00 $98.33 11,519 $205,687
331 $45.00 $90.25 19,584 $1,227,734
332 $46.00 $99.80 15,252 $574,019
333 $47.00 $87.81 18,756 $1,141,725
334 $45.00 $87.78 8,498 ($12,374)
335 $44.00 $93.82 15,425 $714,952
336 $45.00 $91.95 11,032 $236,052
337 $46.00 $80.61 10,655 $304,028
338 $46.00 $93.41 18,504 $1,027,912
339 $44.00 $91.79 8,220 ($69,399)
340 $45.00 $87.22 11,121 $298,724
341 $45.00 $97.29 14,300 $525,963
342 $47.00 $82.47 14,133 $689,328
343 $45.00 $96.53 16,349 $756,992
344 $44.00 $96.74 11,369 $230,867
345 $45.00 $87.60 8,676 $9,868
346 $44.00 $87.06 12,563 $481,589
347 $45.00 $87.11 11,070 $293,967
348 $47.00 $90.35 21,096 $1,355,224
349 $46.00 $93.72 11,106 $213,663
350 $45.00 $95.66 21,247 $1,301,884
351 $45.00 $95.64 22,289 $1,415,182
352 $46.00 $88.60 14,301 $636,116
353 $44.00 $82.71 20,133 $1,462,032
354 $45.00 $96.82 25,276 $1,709,006
355 $47.00 $97.91 10,954 $140,225
356 $46.00 $89.62 9,773 $108,057
357 $45.00 $91.06 25,084 $1,832,949
358 $45.00 $98.30 9,127 ($35,219)
359 $43.00 $86.64 18,126 $1,163,591
360 $47.00 $93.79 9,294 $5,753
361 $43.00 $98.45 10,243 $101,656
362 $47.00 $89.98 14,851 $663,693
363 $47.00 $82.76 17,653 $1,104,854
364 $45.00 $94.77 13,026 $422,831
365 $45.00 $81.48 23,689 $1,902,473
366 $45.00 $82.39 20,029 $1,435,746
367 $43.00 $93.02 8,571 ($31,634)
368 $45.00 $98.09 10,437 $105,376
369 $43.00 $86.11 15,070 $806,761
370 $45.00 $84.74 9,484 $131,007
371 $44.00 $84.42 12,986 $565,909
372 $44.00 $89.45 12,732 $471,104
373 $47.00 $98.73 8,072 ($166,426)
374 $46.00 $85.98 18,817 $1,202,048
375 $46.00 $88.76 18,355 $1,096,860
376 $45.00 $85.89 20,247 $1,391,319
377 $45.00 $81.74 24,197 $1,958,178
378 $46.00 $81.80 15,086 $828,447
379 $47.00 $94.19 8,361 ($98,638)
380 $44.00 $92.64 20,885 $1,346,701
381 $45.00 $90.21 15,630 $778,552
382 $44.00 $80.25 18,211 $1,271,773
383 $47.00 $92.80 13,774 $504,230
384 $45.00 $83.04 17,771 $1,149,571
385 $46.00 $95.67 16,348 $754,627
386 $47.00 $80.48 14,535 $766,278
387 $46.00 $92.66 16,023 $767,930
388 $45.00 $94.20 8,694 ($45,427)
389 $46.00 $91.30 12,244 $367,653
390 $45.00 $90.96 14,118 $595,909
391 $44.00 $90.34 13,966 $601,316
392 $46.00 $80.41 12,217 $497,638
393 $45.00 $84.22 10,058 $204,662
394 $46.00 $85.69 12,017 $409,622
395 $45.00 $93.90 18,699 $1,058,687
396 $43.00 $91.63 13,540 $548,580
397 $46.00 $97.08 18,721 $982,963
398 $44.00 $93.72 16,801 $869,546
399 $45.00 $93.03 16,311 $810,015
400 $43.00 $87.97 15,641 $846,175
401 $43.00 $92.01 14,361 $637,108
402 $45.00 $85.95 21,989 $1,595,835
403 $45.00 $97.35 16,812 $793,053
404 $43.00 $82.89 21,766 $1,679,696
405 $44.00 $83.08 16,652 $1,030,298
406 $46.00 $80.40 18,709 $1,293,802
407 $45.00 $97.72 19,685 $1,092,048
408 $47.00 $91.40 16,651 $841,549
409 $46.00 $94.91 20,656 $1,232,684
410 $46.00 $82.17 18,710 $1,260,739
411 $46.00 $87.83 15,315 $763,948
412 $47.00 $87.19 13,839 $588,886
413 $47.00 $80.15 16,873 $1,055,985
414 $44.00 $98.62 12,274 $305,706
415 $45.00 $81.19 13,421 $648,177
416 $45.00 $98.67 18,655 $964,887
417 $44.00 $83.06 17,286 $1,107,910
418 $45.00 $82.03 14,719 $795,299
419 $45.00 $95.50 11,279 $223,806
420 $44.00 $90.09 14,868 $708,542
421 $44.00 $84.36 13,696 $652,199
422 $44.00 $93.03 12,340 $381,746
423 $45.00 $97.57 13,507 $437,496
424 $46.00 $85.63 15,254 $790,337
425 $45.00 $81.83 20,530 $1,508,094
426 $45.00 $84.52 14,211 $697,975
427 $46.00 $93.62 10,955 $198,263
428 $47.00 $81.96 14,700 $764,624
429 $45.00 $86.59 20,471 $1,403,553
430 $45.00 $84.76 12,037 $435,343
431 $45.00 $91.52 6,182 ($304,619)
432 $45.00 $87.03 16,057 $878,259
433 $44.00 $96.15 19,526 $1,125,391
434 $46.00 $93.20 19,987 $1,194,628
435 $46.00 $80.30 15,197 $864,710
436 $43.00 $87.45 17,310 $1,052,137
437 $43.00 $91.08 16,384 $882,797
438 $44.00 $93.73 14,295 $590,624
439 $46.00 $80.22 12,616 $549,019
440 $45.00 $97.97 13,280 $408,094
441 $44.00 $85.92 15,829 $884,972
442 $45.00 $92.36 21,345 $1,383,061
443 $44.00 $88.15 12,001 $402,263
444 $45.00 $99.15 2,634 ($723,830)
445 $47.00 $91.44 10,931 $208,523
446 $43.00 $93.26 8,972 $11,469
447 $43.00 $85.70 15,527 $867,880
448 $45.00 $89.21 6,798 ($219,713)
449 $43.00 $98.99 6,452 ($309,584)
450 $43.00 $90.96 19,907 $1,290,136
451 $45.00 $82.92 20,275 $1,454,911
452 $45.00 $84.33 15,520 $857,177
453 $45.00 $80.36 11,853 $465,448
454 $43.00 $81.33 8,136 $14,268
455 $45.00 $96.41 12,739 $370,676
456 $45.00 $81.68 12,322 $507,233
457 $44.00 $94.96 14,049 $546,001
458 $45.00 $82.44 15,536 $888,589
459 $45.00 $84.22 16,451 $970,388
460 $44.00 $96.37 19,489 $1,117,037
461 $45.00 $93.86 8,749 ($36,472)
462 $45.00 $90.17 24,245 $1,759,867
463 $45.00 $88.64 10,683 $232,455
464 $45.00 $81.42 12,637 $549,055
465 $44.00 $99.31 11,280 $192,235
466 $45.00 $80.12 15,000 $858,222
467 $45.00 $99.71 14,002 $460,295
468 $46.00 $81.24 11,421 $390,647
469 $44.00 $85.09 17,320 $1,076,897
470 $45.00 $81.09 16,719 $1,054,927
471 $44.00 $99.22 9,682 $24,115
472 $43.00 $94.24 11,547 $290,484
473 $46.00 $82.56 23,258 $1,801,158
474 $45.00 $92.40 10,788 $203,914
475 $45.00 $95.81 13,592 $470,502
476 $46.00 $84.26 16,260 $930,708
477 $46.00 $92.42 16,168 $787,840
478 $45.00 $90.47 11,335 $286,797
479 $44.00 $85.84 10,494 $250,468
480 $46.00 $92.91 13,273 $461,253
481 $47.00 $89.79 11,463 $286,279
482 $45.00 $81.26 25,053 $2,074,895
483 $43.00 $89.10 10,492 $226,470
484 $44.00 $98.70 10,056 $68,959
485 $45.00 $95.93 17,304 $870,047
486 $45.00 $99.31 17,275 $808,479
487 $46.00 $89.98 9,740 $100,883
488 $43.00 $92.91 10,839 $225,732
489 $43.00 $80.94 16,345 $1,044,226
490 $46.00 $84.57 15,134 $792,286
491 $45.00 $98.60 18,234 $921,943
492 $46.00 $85.35 8,273 ($26,701)
493 $46.00 $87.88 19,757 $1,274,389
494 $45.00 $82.96 19,161 $1,319,315
495 $45.00 $86.84 8,735 $23,345
496 $43.00 $91.91 7,076 ($192,660)
497 $44.00 $90.64 22,892 $1,617,990
498 $44.00 $87.54 12,969 $523,256
499 $46.00 $95.06 17,423 $880,620
500 $45.00 $92.93 17,655 $960,963
501 $44.00 $99.04 11,235 $190,380
502 $45.00 $84.86 18,979 $1,261,225
503 $44.00 $99.80 11,640 $224,520
504 $45.00 $82.70 18,175 $1,204,527
505 $45.00 $98.77 11,216 $180,268
506 $45.00 $99.10 13,915 $459,765
507 $45.00 $82.37 11,474 $395,613
508 $45.00 $89.50 15,132 $732,585
509 $45.00 $95.92 13,742 $485,206
510 $45.00 $89.98 8,151 ($70,646)
511 $45.00 $95.47 15,371 $668,213
512 $46.00 $91.19 15,763 $762,436
513 $47.00 $89.03 6,362 ($281,299)
514 $45.00 $80.64 24,004 $1,961,114
515 $46.00 $96.64 18,866 $1,006,568
516 $46.00 $89.04 18,761 $1,137,953
517 $47.00 $95.93 10,915 $157,791
518 $47.00 $99.65 19,940 $1,040,911
519 $44.00 $90.08 17,705 $1,034,730
520 $44.00 $93.75 6,853 ($237,563)
521 $45.00 $97.27 15,553 $660,051
522 $44.00 $86.92 14,939 $763,990
523 $46.00 $80.72 19,343 $1,365,265
524 $45.00 $90.50 10,007 $135,825
525 $45.00 $80.88 19,049 $1,345,215
526 $46.00 $84.41 24,021 $1,848,754
527 $45.00 $93.50 14,053 $552,832
528 $44.00 $82.81 11,397 $392,703
529 $44.00 $84.47 16,384 $974,811
530 $45.00 $98.14 22,272 $1,357,680
531 $45.00 $97.86 12,344 $310,192
532 $46.00 $94.72 12,263 $327,748
533 $43.00 $93.77 15,184 $704,106
534 $45.00 $91.51 8,774 ($13,049)
535 $47.00 $86.57 19,232 $1,220,056
536 $45.00 $87.63 10,059 $170,512
537 $45.00 $87.65 16,728 $946,251
538 $45.00 $91.47 14,531 $635,157
539 $44.00 $95.40 18,394 $1,015,883
540 $46.00 $93.90 19,777 $1,157,640
541 $47.00 $87.89 18,115 $1,067,238
542 $44.00 $97.90 22,799 $1,441,786
543 $44.00 $81.34 12,483 $543,656
544 $45.00 $81.20 9,256 $136,684
545 $45.00 $98.47 13,971 $474,453
546 $47.00 $82.23 13,231 $584,685
547 $46.00 $84.29 19,920 $1,364,723
548 $45.00 $90.32 26,137 $1,971,322
549 $45.00 $89.94 13,802 $574,299
550 $45.00 $91.14 9,207 $39,093
551 $47.00 $81.44 5,341 ($356,096)
552 $43.00 $95.70 10,553 $164,035
553 $46.00 $98.84 14,801 $541,667
554 $45.00 $92.53 25,241 $1,813,681
555 $45.00 $92.96 22,165 $1,461,273
556 $43.00 $95.75 14,971 $650,448
557 $45.00 $90.05 11,601 $321,959
558 $45.00 $88.96 17,851 $1,053,614
559 $44.00 $81.48 14,524 $794,104
560 $47.00 $96.69 10,521 $107,992
561 $47.00 $86.37 21,411 $1,475,808
562 $45.00 $81.03 17,358 $1,134,480
563 $45.00 $80.06 11,145 $381,317
564 $46.00 $93.59 20,635 $1,257,565
565 $45.00 $93.79 19,695 $1,170,577
566 $45.00 $80.61 15,967 $970,212
567 $44.00 $80.34 6,312 ($213,177)
568 $45.00 $80.77 10,648 $312,168
569 $45.00 $95.29 19,618 $1,132,755
570 $44.00 $81.58 12,405 $531,008
571 $47.00 $86.01 10,419 $208,538
572 $44.00 $95.96 19,535 $1,130,104
573 $45.00 $90.76 14,660 $660,145
574 $46.00 $82.79 13,024 $565,658
575 $45.00 $87.45 7,591 ($115,244)
576 $45.00 $84.52 22,616 $1,702,069
577 $44.00 $90.81 11,662 $331,669
578 $44.00 $93.98 16,455 $826,805
579 $45.00 $99.74 17,410 $815,223
580 $44.00 $98.14 8,194 ($124,312)
581 $43.00 $89.01 14,663 $715,404
582 $43.00 $84.60 21,208 $1,574,666
583 $45.00 $96.23 5,639 ($392,243)
584 $46.00 $96.11 10,406 $112,300
585 $46.00 $92.38 15,463 $710,581
586 $44.00 $92.94 26,773 $2,000,220
587 $44.00 $80.60 11,909 $481,424
588 $47.00 $81.54 17,120 $1,062,236
589 $47.00 $82.55 13,210 $577,963
590 $45.00 $95.08 5,091 ($445,521)
591 $45.00 $92.35 16,235 $812,582
592 $44.00 $82.20 16,329 $1,005,155
593 $44.00 $83.25 15,931 $939,602
594 $46.00 $80.32 18,942 $1,323,802
595 $43.00 $85.95 11,721 $407,146
596 $45.00 $96.35 19,431 $1,091,860
597 $45.00 $82.92 12,654 $532,070
598 $45.00 $80.08 18,967 $1,350,389
599 $46.00 $94.58 13,192 $430,300
600 $45.00 $83.25 11,654 $407,266
 Summary Statistics
Mean Profit $727,587 =AVERAGE(E121:E620)
Standard Deviation 525820 =STDEV(E121:E620)
Min Profit ($723,830) =MIN(E121:E6200)
Max Profit $2,074,895 =MAX(E121:E620)
Number of Losses 42 =COUNTIF(E121:E620,"<0")
Number of Trials 500 =COUNT(A121:A620)
Probability of Loss 8.40% =H6/H7
Standard Error $23,515 =STDEV(E121:E620)/SQRT(H7)
Margin of Error $46,201 =TINV(0.05,H7-1)*H9
Lower 95% Limit $681,385 =H2-H10
Upper 95% Limit $773,788 =H2+H10

Range $2,798,724
Number of Groups 12
Group Width $300,000.00

-B21-C21)*D21-$C$4-$C$5
Profit Bins ($723,830)
Min ($600,000) Profit
($300,000) 1392939
$0 207866.6
$300,000 757285.8
$600,000 299175.8
$900,000 797120.4
$1,200,000 -80783.14
$1,500,000 387987.6
$1,800,000 1255467
$2,100,000 1009393
$2,400,000 1657791
$2,700,000 448565.8
-356094
535504.9
784762.6
1634021
1002567
528560.6
877213.1
982912.9
686889.1
448172.3
814932.4
840517.7
570247.4
1274231
855812.6
-133569
673412.8
1145336
1207452
1924486
357142.4
10184.61
728106
-664777
160439.6
665516.6
1426519
745369
212373.5
45304.74
691656.5
448648.9
873705.8
953699.5
665340.8
476468.6
596023.9
545060.4
800417.2
1338750
1309751
620962.6
1162383
519.641
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 Butler inventory
Selling Price $125
Gross Profit per Unit $50 Unit Cost $75
Holding Cost per Unit $15
Shortage Cost per Unit $30 Demand (Normal Distribution)
Mean 100
Replenishment Level Q 100 Std Deviation 20

Demand (Discrete Distribution) Random No. Intervals

Cumulative
Demand Probability Probability From To Demand
-2 60 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 60
-1 80 0.15 0.17 0.02 0.17 80
0 100 0.33 0.50 0.17 0.50 100
1 120 0.33 0.83 0.50 0.83 120
2 140 0.15 0.98 0.83 0.98 140
3 160 0.02 1.00 0.98 1.00 160
sum 1.00

Demand (Discrete Distribution)

0.4286 100 =VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$11:$G$16,3)
where =RAN() = 0.4286

Demand (Uniform Distribution) Lowest 60 Highest 160

0.4286 103 =$F$23+RAND()*($H$23-$F$23)
where =RAN() = 0.4286

Demand (Normal Distribution)

0.9628 136 =NORMINV(RAND(),$G$6,$G$7) where =RAND()=0.9628
0.2005 83
0.6690 109

Simulation =IF(C36<=$D$7,C36,$D$7)
Demand (Normal Distribution) =IF(C36>$D$7,$D$5*(C36-$D$7),0)
Total 302 299 =IF(C36<=$D$7,$D$4*($D$7-C36),0)
Month Demand sales Gross Profit Holding Cost Shortage Cost Net Profit
1 99 99 $4,929 21 0 $4,907
2 101 100 $5,000 0 32 $4,968
3 102 100 $5,000 0 72 $4,928
=NORMINV(RAND(),$G$6,$G$7) =$D$5*(C38-D38)
Summary Statistics =MIN($D$7,C38) =$D$4*($D$7-D38) =E36-F36-G36
Mean Profit $4,934 =$D$3*D36
Std Deviation 31
Min Profit $4,907
Max Profit $4,968
Service Level 98.85% =D34/C34
Std Error $18
 Butler inventory
Selling Price $125
Gross Profit per Unit $50 Unit Cost $75
Holding Cost per Unit $15
Shortage Cost per Unit $30 Demand (Normal Distribution)
Mean 100
Replenishment Level Q 100 Std Deviation 20

Demand (Discrete Distribution) Random No. Intervals

Cumulative
Demand Probability Probability From To Demand
-2 60 0.02 60
-1 80 0.15 80
0 100 0.33 100
1 120 0.33 120
2 140 0.15 140
3 160 0.02 160
sum 1.00

Demand (Discrete Distribution)

0.4286 100

Demand (Uniform Distribution) Lowest 60 Highest

0.4286 103

Demand (Normal Distribution)

0.9628 136
0.2005 83
0.6690 109

Simulation
*(C36-$D$7),0) Demand (Normal Distribution)
Total 302 283
Month Demand sales Gross Profit Holding Cost Shortage Cost
1 118 100 $5,000 0 551
2 100 100 $5,000 0 4
3 83 83 $4,165 251 0

Summary Statistics
Mean Profit $4,453
Std Deviation 541
Min Profit $3,914
Max Profit $4,996
Service Level 93.87%
Std Error $312
 160

Net Profit
$4,449
$4,996
$3,914
Given Inventory level Q 100 Demand Mean 100
Unit Inventory holding cost 15 Demand Std 20
Unit Shortage cost 30
Sales price 125
Unit cost 75
Gross Profit /unit 50

1. If D <= Q, then D units are sold, Q - D units leftover

2. If D > Q, then Q units are sold, D - Q units are shotages
Excel formulas to compute Units sold, Units leftover and Units shortages

Demand (D) Normal (100, 20) =ROUND(NORMINV(RAND(),100,20),0)

Units sold If (D <= Q, D, Q) =IF(B26<=$C$1,B26,$C$1)
Units leftover If (D <Q, Q - D, 0) =IF(B26<$C$1,$C$1-B26,0)
Units shortage If (D > Q, D - Q, 0) =IF(B26>$C$1,B26-$C$1,0)

Net Profit = Gross Profit * Units Sold - Inventory holding cost * Units leftover - Shortage cost * Units shortages
=$C$6*C26-$C$2*D26-$C$3*F26
Inventory Cost Unit Inventory holding cost * Units leftover =$C$2*D26
Shortage Cost Unit shortage cost * Units shortage =F26*$C$3
=IF(B24<=$C$1,B24,$C$1) =$C$2*D24
=ROUND(NORMINV(RAND(),$F$1,$F$2),0) =IF(B24<$C$1,$C$1-B24,0) =IF(B24>$C$1,B24-$C$1,0)
No. Demand (D) Units Sold Units Leftover Inventory Cost Units Shortage
1 121 100 0 0 21
2 86 86 14 210 0
3 102 100 0 0 2
4 85 85 15 225 0
=MAX($C$1-B30,0) =B27-C27
=MIN(B30,$C$1) =$C$2*D30 =MAX(B30-$C$1,0)
5 115 100 0 0 15
6 88 88 12 180 0
7 116 100 0 0 16
8 76 76 24 360 0
=$C$1-C33
AND(),100,20),0)
=MIN(B26,$C$1)
=MAX($C$1-B26,0)
=MAX(B26-$C$1,0)

e cost * Units shortages

=F24*$C$3
24>$C$1,B24-$C$1,0) =$C$6*C24--E24-G24
Shortage Cost Net Profit
630 4370
0 4510
60 4940
0 4475
=F30*$C$3
X(B30-$C$1,0) =$C$6*C30--E30-G30
450 4550
0 4580
480 4520
0 4160
Butler inventory Selling Price $125
Unit Cost $75
Gross Profit per Unit $50
Holding Cost per Unit $15 Summary Statistics
Shortage Cost per Unit $30 Mean Profit $4,348 =AVERAGE(G117:G316)
Std Deviation 1218 =STDEV(G117:G316)
Replenishment Level Q 140 Min Profit $1,088 =MIN(G117:G316)
Max Profit $6,999 =MAX(G117:G316)
Demand (Normal Distribution) Service Level 99.87% =C15/B15
Mean 100 Std Error $86 =F6/SQRT(COUNT(G117:G316
Std Deviation 20 =SUM(C17:C316)
=SUM(B17:B316) =IF(B17<=$C$7,$C$4*($C$7-B17),0)
=IF(B17<=$C$7,B17,$C$7) =$C$5*(B18-C18)
Simulation =NORMINV(RAND(),$B$10,$B$11) =IF(B17>$C$7,$C$5*(B17-$C$7),0)
Total 29670 29630 =$C$3*C17 =$C$4*($C$7-C18) =D17-E17-F17
Month Demand sales Gross Profit Holding Cost Shortage Cost Net Profit
1 106 106 $5,307 508 0 $4,799
2 93 93 $4,652 704 0 $3,948
3 103 103 $5,153 554 0 $4,599
4 78 78 $3,910 927 0 $2,983
5 93 93 $4,663 701 0 $3,962
6 74 74 $3,702 989 0 $2,712
7 84 84 $4,187 844 0 $3,343
8 107 107 $5,354 494 0 $4,860
9 98 98 $4,911 627 0 $4,284
10 107 107 $5,356 493 0 $4,863
11 73 73 $3,673 998 0 $2,675
12 98 98 $4,896 631 0 $4,264
13 100 100 $4,996 601 0 $4,395
14 96 96 $4,812 656 0 $4,156
15 96 96 $4,811 657 0 $4,155
16 76 76 $3,823 953 0 $2,870
17 89 89 $4,462 761 0 $3,701
18 75 75 $3,749 975 0 $2,773
19 115 115 $5,775 368 0 $5,407
20 69 69 $3,426 1072 0 $2,354
21 116 116 $5,797 361 0 $5,436
22 112 112 $5,617 415 0 $5,202
23 147 140 $7,000 0 219 $6,781
24 84 84 $4,224 833 0 $3,392
25 101 101 $5,040 588 0 $4,452
26 80 80 $3,992 902 0 $3,089
27 91 91 $4,567 730 0 $3,837
28 88 88 $4,406 778 0 $3,628
29 120 120 $6,018 295 0 $5,723
30 92 92 $4,597 721 0 $3,876
31 119 119 $5,952 314 0 $5,638
32 114 114 $5,684 395 0 $5,289
33 107 107 $5,372 488 0 $4,884
34 96 96 $4,787 664 0 $4,123
35 108 108 $5,399 480 0 $4,919
36 96 96 $4,776 667 0 $4,109
37 97 97 $4,850 645 0 $4,205
38 111 111 $5,570 429 0 $5,142
39 108 108 $5,418 475 0 $4,944
40 112 112 $5,610 417 0 $5,193
41 103 103 $5,160 552 0 $4,608
42 105 105 $5,266 520 0 $4,745
43 92 92 $4,597 721 0 $3,877
44 82 82 $4,110 867 0 $3,243
45 72 72 $3,623 1013 0 $2,610
46 122 122 $6,100 270 0 $5,830
47 90 90 $4,490 753 0 $3,737
48 122 122 $6,104 269 0 $5,835
49 95 95 $4,771 669 0 $4,103
50 91 91 $4,536 739 0 $3,797
51 123 123 $6,174 248 0 $5,926
52 99 99 $4,957 613 0 $4,344
53 104 104 $5,183 545 0 $4,638
54 121 121 $6,051 285 0 $5,767
55 107 107 $5,369 489 0 $4,879
56 139 139 $6,952 14 0 $6,938
57 98 98 $4,916 625 0 $4,291
58 103 103 $5,148 555 0 $4,593
59 93 93 $4,654 704 0 $3,951
60 100 100 $4,986 604 0 $4,382
61 104 104 $5,195 542 0 $4,653
62 90 90 $4,514 746 0 $3,769
63 84 84 $4,188 844 0 $3,344
64 87 87 $4,347 796 0 $3,551
65 105 105 $5,253 524 0 $4,729
66 110 110 $5,522 443 0 $5,078
67 97 97 $4,858 643 0 $4,216
68 53 53 $2,671 1299 0 $1,372
69 77 77 $3,859 942 0 $2,917
70 99 99 $4,953 614 0 $4,338
71 97 97 $4,840 648 0 $4,192
72 121 121 $6,031 291 0 $5,740
73 49 49 $2,450 1365 0 $1,085
74 86 86 $4,296 811 0 $3,485
75 107 107 $5,338 499 0 $4,839
76 116 116 $5,804 359 0 $5,446
77 96 96 $4,804 659 0 $4,146
78 60 60 $2,986 1204 0 $1,781
79 111 111 $5,556 433 0 $5,123
80 106 106 $5,305 508 0 $4,797
81 96 96 $4,805 658 0 $4,147
82 78 78 $3,878 937 0 $2,942
83 121 121 $6,068 280 0 $5,789
84 124 124 $6,185 244 0 $5,941
85 117 117 $5,854 344 0 $5,510
86 127 127 $6,340 198 0 $6,142
87 76 76 $3,798 960 0 $2,838
88 87 87 $4,369 789 0 $3,580
89 60 60 $3,022 1193 0 $1,828
90 104 104 $5,225 533 0 $4,692
91 112 112 $5,604 419 0 $5,185
92 65 65 $3,274 1118 0 $2,156
93 90 90 $4,497 751 0 $3,746
94 107 107 $5,347 496 0 $4,851
95 118 118 $5,915 325 0 $5,590
96 92 92 $4,603 719 0 $3,884
97 61 61 $3,037 1189 0 $1,849
98 79 79 $3,951 915 0 $3,036
99 94 94 $4,724 683 0 $4,041
100 120 120 $5,991 303 0 $5,688
101 107 107 $5,350 495 0 $4,855
102 87 87 $4,352 795 0 $3,557
103 102 102 $5,096 571 0 $4,525
104 111 111 $5,555 434 0 $5,121
105 122 122 $6,098 270 0 $5,828
106 115 115 $5,743 377 0 $5,367
107 106 106 $5,284 515 0 $4,769
108 115 115 $5,738 379 0 $5,359
109 131 131 $6,540 138 0 $6,401
110 119 119 $5,949 315 0 $5,634
111 117 117 $5,852 344 0 $5,508
112 69 69 $3,469 1059 0 $2,410
113 71 71 $3,546 1036 0 $2,510
114 112 112 $5,587 424 0 $5,163
115 108 108 $5,405 478 0 $4,927
116 120 120 $5,989 303 0 $5,685
117 127 127 $6,328 202 0 $6,126
118 100 100 $4,981 606 0 $4,375
119 117 117 $5,826 352 0 $5,474
120 113 113 $5,656 403 0 $5,253
121 77 77 $3,839 948 0 $2,890
122 91 91 $4,563 731 0 $3,832
123 102 102 $5,114 566 0 $4,548
124 81 81 $4,057 883 0 $3,175
125 140 140 $7,000 0 4 $6,996
126 117 117 $5,845 346 0 $5,499
127 113 113 $5,642 407 0 $5,235
128 91 91 $4,557 733 0 $3,824
129 101 101 $5,039 588 0 $4,450
130 84 84 $4,206 838 0 $3,368
131 94 94 $4,706 688 0 $4,018
132 60 60 $2,988 1203 0 $1,785
133 92 92 $4,608 718 0 $3,890
134 81 81 $4,028 892 0 $3,136
135 90 90 $4,511 747 0 $3,765
136 122 122 $6,101 270 0 $5,832
137 119 119 $5,955 313 0 $5,642
138 128 128 $6,413 176 0 $6,237
139 97 97 $4,837 649 0 $4,188
140 140 140 $7,000 0 1 $6,999
141 107 107 $5,333 500 0 $4,833
142 71 71 $3,526 1042 0 $2,484
143 107 107 $5,332 500 0 $4,832
144 119 119 $5,940 318 0 $5,622
145 112 112 $5,586 424 0 $5,161
146 93 93 $4,647 706 0 $3,941
147 92 92 $4,610 717 0 $3,893
148 99 99 $4,938 619 0 $4,320
149 109 109 $5,428 472 0 $4,957
150 71 71 $3,559 1032 0 $2,526
151 106 106 $5,287 514 0 $4,773
152 145 140 $7,000 0 161 $6,839
153 99 99 $4,957 613 0 $4,344
154 102 102 $5,107 568 0 $4,539
155 102 102 $5,097 571 0 $4,526
156 113 113 $5,670 399 0 $5,271
157 118 118 $5,922 324 0 $5,598
158 98 98 $4,897 631 0 $4,266
159 92 92 $4,603 719 0 $3,884
160 94 94 $4,683 695 0 $3,988
161 88 88 $4,377 787 0 $3,589
162 98 98 $4,923 623 0 $4,299
163 62 62 $3,101 1170 0 $1,932
164 123 123 $6,174 248 0 $5,927
165 72 72 $3,581 1026 0 $2,555
166 100 100 $4,985 605 0 $4,380
167 80 80 $3,986 904 0 $3,082
168 78 78 $3,880 936 0 $2,944
169 93 93 $4,645 707 0 $3,938
170 91 91 $4,563 731 0 $3,832
171 99 99 $4,939 618 0 $4,321
172 115 115 $5,769 369 0 $5,400
173 89 89 $4,475 758 0 $3,717
174 61 61 $3,033 1190 0 $1,843
175 109 109 $5,454 464 0 $4,991
176 87 87 $4,354 794 0 $3,560
177 93 93 $4,661 702 0 $3,959
178 139 139 $6,943 17 0 $6,926
179 113 113 $5,657 403 0 $5,254
180 97 97 $4,845 646 0 $4,199
181 107 107 $5,365 490 0 $4,875
182 91 91 $4,541 738 0 $3,803
183 98 98 $4,920 624 0 $4,296
184 81 81 $4,028 892 0 $3,136
185 125 125 $6,261 222 0 $6,040
186 74 74 $3,680 996 0 $2,684
187 72 72 $3,592 1022 0 $2,570
188 122 122 $6,101 270 0 $5,832
189 84 84 $4,208 838 0 $3,370
190 96 96 $4,812 656 0 $4,155
191 75 75 $3,765 970 0 $2,795
192 101 101 $5,071 579 0 $4,492
193 112 112 $5,591 423 0 $5,168
194 89 89 $4,467 760 0 $3,708
195 105 105 $5,236 529 0 $4,707
196 99 99 $4,942 617 0 $4,325
197 53 53 $2,643 1307 0 $1,336
198 92 92 $4,619 714 0 $3,905
199 107 107 $5,325 502 0 $4,823
200 71 71 $3,530 1041 0 $2,488
201 98 98 $4,880 636 0 $4,243
202 113 113 $5,635 409 0 $5,226
203 106 106 $5,277 517 0 $4,760
204 98 98 $4,882 635 0 $4,247
205 87 87 $4,365 790 0 $3,575
206 116 116 $5,787 364 0 $5,423
207 70 70 $3,509 1047 0 $2,462
208 93 93 $4,632 710 0 $3,921
209 99 99 $4,950 615 0 $4,335
210 99 99 $4,936 619 0 $4,316
211 106 106 $5,323 503 0 $4,820
212 117 117 $5,867 340 0 $5,528
213 87 87 $4,340 798 0 $3,542
214 120 120 $5,983 305 0 $5,678
215 104 104 $5,214 536 0 $4,678
216 108 108 $5,414 476 0 $4,938
217 87 87 $4,339 798 0 $3,541
218 131 131 $6,563 131 0 $6,432
219 92 92 $4,577 727 0 $3,850
220 93 93 $4,637 709 0 $3,928
221 86 86 $4,287 814 0 $3,473
222 73 73 $3,649 1005 0 $2,643
223 128 128 $6,389 183 0 $6,206
224 97 97 $4,846 646 0 $4,200
225 88 88 $4,410 777 0 $3,633
226 124 124 $6,216 235 0 $5,981
227 87 87 $4,367 790 0 $3,577
228 108 108 $5,420 474 0 $4,946
229 74 74 $3,694 992 0 $2,702
230 89 89 $4,443 767 0 $3,675
231 107 107 $5,356 493 0 $4,863
232 112 112 $5,590 423 0 $5,167
233 70 70 $3,510 1047 0 $2,463
234 104 104 $5,189 543 0 $4,645
235 93 93 $4,659 702 0 $3,956
236 78 78 $3,911 927 0 $2,985
237 73 73 $3,656 1003 0 $2,653
238 89 89 $4,429 771 0 $3,658
239 106 106 $5,310 507 0 $4,803
240 58 58 $2,920 1224 0 $1,695
241 119 119 $5,964 311 0 $5,654
242 81 81 $4,035 890 0 $3,145
243 93 93 $4,657 703 0 $3,954
244 108 108 $5,418 475 0 $4,944
245 62 62 $3,102 1169 0 $1,933
246 159 140 $7,000 0 572 $6,428
247 109 109 $5,446 466 0 $4,979
248 82 82 $4,113 866 0 $3,247
249 94 94 $4,684 695 0 $3,989
250 82 82 $4,103 869 0 $3,234
251 49 49 $2,453 1364 0 $1,088
252 136 136 $6,815 55 0 $6,760
253 94 94 $4,712 686 0 $4,026
254 112 112 $5,598 420 0 $5,178
255 98 98 $4,924 623 0 $4,301
256 101 101 $5,063 581 0 $4,482
257 100 100 $4,979 606 0 $4,373
258 74 74 $3,693 992 0 $2,701
259 109 109 $5,464 461 0 $5,003
260 140 140 $6,996 1 0 $6,994
261 110 110 $5,488 454 0 $5,035
262 71 71 $3,529 1041 0 $2,488
263 75 75 $3,742 977 0 $2,765
264 94 94 $4,688 694 0 $3,995
265 98 98 $4,897 631 0 $4,267
266 96 96 $4,786 664 0 $4,122
267 82 82 $4,092 872 0 $3,220
268 93 93 $4,628 712 0 $3,916
269 72 72 $3,624 1013 0 $2,611
270 123 123 $6,139 258 0 $5,881
271 115 115 $5,731 381 0 $5,351
272 117 117 $5,836 349 0 $5,487
273 93 93 $4,661 702 0 $3,960
274 76 76 $3,808 958 0 $2,850
275 113 113 $5,649 405 0 $5,244
276 101 101 $5,074 578 0 $4,497
277 89 89 $4,440 768 0 $3,672
278 93 93 $4,626 712 0 $3,914
279 98 98 $4,908 628 0 $4,280
280 80 80 $3,997 901 0 $3,096
281 118 118 $5,903 329 0 $5,574
282 114 114 $5,685 395 0 $5,290
283 103 103 $5,163 551 0 $4,612
284 105 105 $5,261 522 0 $4,739
285 109 109 $5,474 458 0 $5,016
286 106 106 $5,306 508 0 $4,798
287 98 98 $4,919 624 0 $4,294
288 134 134 $6,683 95 0 $6,588
289 121 121 $6,038 289 0 $5,750
290 102 102 $5,110 567 0 $4,542
291 148 140 $7,000 0 231 $6,769
292 119 119 $5,953 314 0 $5,639
293 95 95 $4,765 671 0 $4,094
294 97 97 $4,870 639 0 $4,231
295 135 135 $6,730 81 0 $6,648
296 90 90 $4,498 751 0 $3,747
297 71 71 $3,555 1034 0 $2,521
298 112 112 $5,611 417 0 $5,194
299 64 64 $3,203 1139 0 $2,064
300 113 113 $5,632 410 0 $5,222
 Relationships among Q, Average Net Profit ($) and Service Level (%)
RAGE(G117:G316) Replenishment Average Service
4,600 102
EV(G117:G316) Level Q Net Profit ($) Level (%)
4,550
(G117:G316) 100 4,249 92.02% 100
4,500
(G117:G316) 105 4,366 94.20% 4,450 98.0
110 4,456 96.38% 4,400 96.0
QRT(COUNT(G117:G316 115 4,523 97.27% 4,350
4,300 94.0
120 4,545 98.55% Net Profit ($)
4,250 92.0
125 4,534 99.02% 4,200
Level (%)
130 4,475 99.40% 90.0
4,150
135 4,419 99.68% 4,100 88.0
100 105 Replenishment
110 115 120 Level
125 Q130 135 140
140 4,403 99.76%

MonteCarlito =F5 =F9

AvgProfit AvgSvrLevel
1 -10 4348.38 0.9987
2 Mean 4403.06 99.76%
3 Standard error 38.25 0.00
4 Median 4397.97 1.00
5 Standard deviatio 120.96 0.00
6 Variance 14630.83 0.00
7
 102.00%
100.00%
98.00%
96.00%
94.00%
et Profit ($)
92.00%
vel (%)
90.00%
88.00%
0nt Level
125 Q130 135 140
 A B C D E F G H I J K
1 Wachovia Bank One ATM Simulation Model RN
2 0.9814
3 Interarrival Times (Uniform Distribution) Service Times (Normal Distribution) 0.2932
4 Smallest Value 0 Mean 2 0.5473
5 Largest Value 4 Std Deviation 0.5 0.079
6 0.306
7 RN Interarrival Time 0.7634
8 0.3693 0.0714
9 0.1404
10
11
12 RN Service Time
13 0.7955
14
15
16
17 Simulation
18 Clock in Time Clock Out Time
19 Interarrival Arrival Service Waiting Service Completion Time
20 Customer Time Time Start Time Time Time Time in System RN For IATM RN For ST z(RN SvrT)
21 1
22 2
23 3
24 4 0.9814 0.2932 -0.5441
25 5 0.5473 0.079 -1.4118
26 6 0.306 0.7634 0.7173
27 7 0.0714 0.1404 -1.0785
28
29 Summary Statistics
30 Number Waiting
31 Probability of Waiting
32 Average Waiting Time
33 Max Waiting Time
34 Utilization of ATM
35 Number Waiting > 1 min
36 Probability of Waiting > 1 min
 A B C D E F G H I J K
1 Wachovia Bank One ATM Simulation Model RN
2 0.9814
3 Interarrival Times (Uniform Distribution) Service Times (Normal Distribution) 0.2932
4 Smallest Value 0 Mean 2 0.5473
5 Largest Value 4 Std Deviation 0.5 0.079
6 0.306
7 RN Interarrival Time 0.7634
8 0.3693 1.4772 =$B$4+RAND()*($B$5-$B$4) 0.0714
9 0.1404
10
11
12 RN Service Time
13 0.7955 2.4128 =NORMINV(A13,$F$4,$F$5)
14
15
16 Initial Time 0
17 Simulation =C21+B22
18 =$B$4+RAND()*($B$5-$B$4) =D21-C21 =NORMINV(H3,$F$4,$F$5)
19 Interarrival Arrival Service Waiting Service Completion Time
20 Customer Time Time Start Time Time Time Time in System RN For IATM RN For ST z(RN SvrT)
21 1 2 2 2 0 5 7 5
22 2 1 3 7 4 3 10 7
23 3 8 11 11 0 4 15.000 4
24 4 3.926 14.926 15 0.0744 1.728 16.728 1.802 0.9814 0.2932 -0.5441
25 5 2.189 17.115 17.115 0 1.294 18.409 1.294 0.5473 0.079 -1.4118
26 6 1.224 18.339 18.409 0.070 2.359 20.768 2.429 0.306 0.7634 0.7173
27 7 0.286 18.624 20.768 2.143 1.461 22.228 3.604 0.0714 0.1404 -1.0785
28 =IF(C22>G21,C22,G21) =D21+F21
29 Summary Statistics =MAX(C22,G21) =G21-C21
30 Number Waiting 3 =COUNTIF($E$21:$E$24,">0")
31 Probability of Waiting 75.00% =D27/COUNT(E21:E24)
32 Average Waiting Time 0.57 =AVERAGE(E21:E24)
33 Max Waiting Time 2.14 =MAX(E21:E24)
34 Utilization of ATM 30.78% =SUM(F21:F24)/(G24)
35 Number Waiting > 1 min 1 =COUNTIF(E21:E24,">1")
36 Probability of Waiting > 1 min 0.2500 =D32/COUNT(E21:E24)
37 Average time in system 2.282 =AVERAGE(H24:H27)
 Probability of Waiting 63.80% =G3/COUNT(E116:E615)
Average Waiting Time 1.23 =AVERAGE(E116:E615)
Max Waiting Time 10.20 =MAX(E116:E615)
Utilization of ATM 81.87% =SUM(F116:F615)/(G615-G115)
Number Waiting > 1 min 225 =COUNTIF(E116:E615,">1")
Probability of Waiting > 1 min 0.4500 =G8/COUNT(E116:E615)
=IF(C17>G16,C17,G16)
=C16+B17 MonteCarlito
AND()*($B$5-$B$4) =NORMINV(RAND(),$B$8,$B$9)
=C16 =D16-C16 =D16+F16 =G16-C16 1 -10
Service Waiting Service Completion Time 2 Mean
Start Time Time Time Time in System 3 Standard error
0.13 0.00 2.01 2.13 2.01 4 Median
2.16 0.00 1.76 3.92 1.76 5 Standard deviatio
4.47 0.00 2.49 6.96 2.49 6 Variance
6.96 0.22 1.01 7.97 1.24 7
9.64 0.00 2.79 12.43 2.79
12.55 0.00 1.90 14.45 1.90
AvgN Wait
319.00
313.70
5.24
312.00
16.56
274.21
Exercise 1: Simple Simulation Process
Breakeven for Product P 66.67
Flip Two Coins Chance
Sell Price sp 90 HH 1/4 100
Unit Cost v 45 HT, TH 1/2 75
TT 1/4 50
Fixed Cost FC 3000

Wk Demand D 100

=$B$4 =$B$5 75 =$B$7 =C13*E13

No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue
1 90 45 75 3000 6750
2 90 45 50 3000 4500
3 90 45 100 3000 9000
One - variable data table
Profit /Loss Formula in I15 and E15 as Column input cell
Wk Demand D 1500.00 =I15
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
8000

Two - variable data table Profit /Loss Formula in I15, and D15 and E156000
as Row and Column input cells respectively
Wk Demand D =I15 Unit cost v
1500.00 30 45 60 4000
0 -3000 -3000 -3000
25 -1500 -1875 -2250 2000
50 0 -750 -1500
75 1500 375 -750 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
100 3000 1500 0
125 4500 2625 750 -2000
150 6000 3750 1500
-4000
 n 3 =COUNT(I13:I15)
Average Profit 375.00 =AVERAGE(I13:I15)
Standard Deviation 1125 =STDEV(I13:I15)
Standard Error 649.52 =L4/SQRT(L2)
t Critical Value 4.303 =TINV(0.05,L2-1)
Margin of Error 2794.65 =L6*L5
95% CI Lower Limit (2419.65) =L3-L7
95% CI Upper Limit 3169.65 =L3+L7

=F13+D13*E13 =G13-H13 No. of losses 1 =COUNTIF(I13:I15,"<0")

Total Cost Profit/Loss Possibility of loss 0.3333 =L11/L2
6375 375.00 Standard deviation of loss 0.2722 =SQRT(L12*(1-L12)/L2)
5250 (750.00) z critical value 1.960 =NORMSINV(0.975)
7500 1500.00 Margin of Error of loss 0.5334 =L14*L13
95% CI Lower Limit of % loss -0.200101 =L12-L15
95% CI Upper Limit of % loss 0.8668 =L12+L15

12

10

input cells respectively 4

2 Colum
nB Colum
nB
0 Colum
nC
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

40 60 80 100 120 140 160

140 160
Exercise 2: Use of Random Number Generation in Simulation
Breakeven for Product P
Flip Two Coins Chance From Prob To Prob Wk Demand D
Sell Price sp 90 HH 0.25 0 0.25 100
Unit Cost v 45 HT, TH 0.50 0.25 0.75 75
TT 0.25 0.75 1.00 50
Fixed Cost FC 3000

Wk Demand D 100

No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
1 0.6589 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
2 0.8656 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
3 0.1365 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
=VLOOKUP(B18,$E$4:$G$6,3)
No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
4 0.6589 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
5 0.8656 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
6 0.1365 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
=VLOOKUP(B23,$E$4:$G$6,3)
No. =RAND() Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
7 0.7660 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
8 0.7336 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
9 0.9112 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$4:$G$6,3)
No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
10 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
11 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
12 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
 No.1-3 No.4-6 No.7-9 No.10-12
n 3 3 3 3 =COUNT(I28:I30)
Average Profit 375.00 375.00 (375.00) 1125.00 =AVERAGE(I28:I30)
Standard Deviation 1125 1125 649.5191 649.5191
Standard Error 649.52 649.52 375.00 375
t Critical Value 4.303 4.303 4.303 4.303
Margin of Error 2794.65 2794.65 1613.49 1613.495
95% CI Lower Limit (2419.65) (2419.65) (1988.49) (488.49)
95% CI Upper Limit 3169.65 3169.65 1238.49 2738.49

=COUNT(I18=COUNT(I23:I25)
Profit/Loss =AVERAGE(I
=AVERAGE(I23:I25)
375.00 =STDEV(I18:I20)
(750.00) =M4/SQRT(M2)
1500.00 =TINV(0.05,M2-1)
=M6*M5
Profit/Loss =M3-M7
375.00 =M3+M7
(750.00)
1500.00

Profit/Loss
(750.00)
375.00
(750.00)

Profit/Loss
1500.00
375.00
1500.00
Exercise 3 Breakeven for Product P
Flip Two Coins Chance From Prob To Prob Wk Demand D
Sell Price sp 90 HH 0.25 0 0.25 100
Unit Cost v 45 HT, TH 0.50 0.25 0.75 75
TT 0.25 0.75 1.00 50
Fixed Cost FC 3000

Demand D 100

No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
0.658912 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
0.86555 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
0.136484 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$3:$G$5,3)
1 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
2 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
3 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
4 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
5 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
6 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
7 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
8 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
9 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
10 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
11 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
12 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
13 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
14 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
15 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
16 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
17 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
18 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
19 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
20 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
21 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
22 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
23 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
24 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
25 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
26 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
27 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
28 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
29 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
30 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
31 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
32 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
33 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
34 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
35 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
36 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
37 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
38 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
39 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
40 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
41 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
42 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
43 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
44 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
45 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
46 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
47 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
48 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
49 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
50 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
51 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
52 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
53 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
54 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
55 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
56 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
57 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
58 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
59 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
60 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
61 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
62 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
63 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
64 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
65 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
66 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
67 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
68 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
69 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
70 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
71 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
72 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
73 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
74 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
75 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
 76 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
77 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
78 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
79 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
80 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
81 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
82 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
83 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
84 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
85 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
86 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
87 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
88 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
89 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
90 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
91 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
92 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
93 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
94 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
95 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
96 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
97 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
98 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
99 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
100 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
101 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
102 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
103 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
104 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
105 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
106 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
107 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
108 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
109 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
110 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
111 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
112 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
113 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
114 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
115 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
116 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
117 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
118 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
119 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
120 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
121 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
122 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
123 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
124 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
125 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
126 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
127 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
128 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
129 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
130 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
131 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
132 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
133 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
134 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
135 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
136 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
137 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
138 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
139 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
140 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
141 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
142 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
143 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
144 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
145 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
146 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
147 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
148 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
149 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
150 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
151 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
152 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
153 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
154 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
155 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
156 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
157 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
158 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
159 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
160 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
161 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
162 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
163 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
164 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
165 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
166 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
167 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
168 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
169 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
170 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
171 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
172 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
173 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
174 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
175 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
176 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
177 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
178 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
179 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
180 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
181 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
182 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
183 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
184 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
185 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
186 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
187 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
188 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
189 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
190 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
191 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
192 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
193 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
194 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
195 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
196 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
197 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
198 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
199 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
200 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
201 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
202 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
203 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
204 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
205 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
206 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
207 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
208 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
209 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
210 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
211 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
212 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
213 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
214 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
215 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
216 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
217 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
218 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
219 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
220 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
221 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
222 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
223 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
224 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
225 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
226 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
227 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
228 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
229 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
230 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
231 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
232 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
233 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
234 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
235 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
236 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
237 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
238 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
239 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
240 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
241 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
242 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
243 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
244 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
245 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
246 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
247 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
248 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
249 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
250 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
251 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
252 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
253 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
254 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
255 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
256 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
257 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
258 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
259 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
260 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
261 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
262 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
263 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
264 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
265 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
266 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
267 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
268 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
269 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
270 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
271 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
272 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
273 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
274 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
275 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
276 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
277 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
278 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
279 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
280 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
281 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
282 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
283 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
284 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
285 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
286 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
287 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
288 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
289 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
290 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
291 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
292 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
293 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
294 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
295 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
296 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
297 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
298 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
299 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
300 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
301 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
302 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
303 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
304 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
305 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
306 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
307 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
308 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
309 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
310 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
311 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
312 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
313 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
314 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
315 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
316 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
317 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
318 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
319 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
320 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
321 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
322 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
323 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
324 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
325 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
326 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
327 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
328 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
329 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
330 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
331 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
332 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
333 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
334 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
335 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
336 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
337 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
338 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
339 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
340 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
341 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
342 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
343 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
344 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
345 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
346 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
347 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
348 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
349 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
350 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
351 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
352 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
353 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
354 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
355 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
356 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
357 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
358 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
359 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
360 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
361 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
362 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
363 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
364 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
365 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
366 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
367 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
368 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
369 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
370 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
371 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
372 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
373 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
374 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
375 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
376 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
377 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
378 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
379 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
380 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
381 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
382 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
383 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
384 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
385 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
386 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
387 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
388 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
389 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
390 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
391 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
392 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
393 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
394 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
395 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
396 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
397 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
398 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
399 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
400 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
401 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
402 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
403 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
404 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
405 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
406 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
407 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
408 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
409 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
410 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
411 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
412 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
413 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
414 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
415 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
416 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
417 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
418 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
419 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
420 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
421 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
422 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
423 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
424 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
425 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
426 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
427 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
428 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
429 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
430 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
431 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
432 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
433 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
434 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
435 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
436 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
437 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
438 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
439 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
440 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
441 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
442 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
443 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
444 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
445 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
446 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
447 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
448 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
449 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
450 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
451 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
452 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
453 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
454 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
455 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
456 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
457 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
458 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
459 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
460 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
461 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
462 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
463 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
464 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
465 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
466 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
467 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
468 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
469 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
470 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
471 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
472 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
473 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
474 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
475 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
476 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
477 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
478 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
479 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
480 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
481 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
482 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
483 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
484 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
485 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
486 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
487 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
488 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
489 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
490 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
491 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
492 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
493 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
494 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
495 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
496 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
497 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
498 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
499 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
500 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$3:$G$5,3)
 n 3 10 100 500 400 400
Average Profit 375.00 150.00 408.75 388.50 383.44 375.70
Standard Deviation 1125 887.4119675 790.74 821.27 829.61
Standard Error 649.52 280.62 79.07 36.73 41.48 36.19
t Critical Value 4.303 2.262 1.98 1.96 1.97 1.97
Margin of Error 2794.65 634.82 156.90 72.16 81.55 71.14
95% CI Lower Limit (2419.65) (484.82) 251.85 316.34 301.89 304.56
95% CI Upper Limit 3169.65 784.82 565.65 460.66 464.99 446.85

No. of losses 100.00

Profit/Loss Possibility of loss 0.2500
375.00 Standard deviation of loss 0.0217
(750.00) z critical value 1.960
1500.00 Margin of Error of loss 0.0424
95% CI Lower Limit of % loss 0.207566
375.00 95% CI Upper Limit of % loss 0.2924
375.00
(750.00) MonteCarlito =P2 =COUNTIF(I116:I515,"<0")
(750.00) AvgProfit No. of Loss
1500.00 1 -16 383.44 107
375.00 2 Mean 375.70 100.00
(750.00) 3 Standard error 9.05 1.81
(750.00) 4 Median 369.38 101.00
1500.00 5 Standard deviation 36.19 7.25
375.00 6 Variance 1309.63 52.50
1500.00 7 Skewness 0.416224 -0.131112456
375.00 8
1500.00
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=L21

=L24
=TINV(0.05,R1-1)
=R5*R4
=R2-R6
=R2+R6

=M21
=R10/R1
=SQRT(R11*(1-R11)/R1)
=NORMSINV(0.975)
=R13*R12
=R11-R14
=R11+R14
Exercise 4 Breakeven for Product P
Flip Two Coins Chance From Prob To Prob Wk Demand D
Sell Price sp 90 HH 0.25 0 0.25 100
Unit Cost v 45 HT, TH 0.50 0.25 0.75 75
TT 0.25 0.75 1.00 50
Fixed Cost FC 3000 mean Std
Normal Distributed Sell Price sp 90 5
Demand D 100 Uniform Distributed Unit Cost v 40 50
Low High
=$G$8+RAND()*($H$8-$G$8)
No. Sell Price sp Unit Cost v Wk Demand D Fixed Cost FC Revenue Total Cost
0.658912 90 45 75 3000 6750 6375
0.86555 90 45 50 3000 4500 5250
0.136484 90 45 100 3000 9000 7500
=NORMINV(RAND(),$G$7,$H$7) =VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$3:$G$5,3)
1 80.44 42.65 75 3000 6032.9853 6198.981
2 87.83 44.53 75 3000 6587.4702 6339.626
3 94.50 44.40 100 3000 9449.8984 7440.369
4 90.65 49.73 75 3000 6798.5887 6729.402
5 90.56 42.88 75 3000 6791.6449 6215.921
6 94.19 46.47 75 3000 7064.5947 6485.114
7 87.76 45.14 75 3000 6582.0914 6385.504
8 86.90 44.19 75 3000 6517.7968 6314.3
9 92.87 44.90 75 3000 6965.6037 6367.522
10 91.19 40.14 75 3000 6839.1516 6010.678
11 89.36 48.20 50 3000 4467.8309 5410.219
12 86.92 41.07 100 3000 8691.7399 7107.07
13 90.93 46.27 100 3000 9092.5184 7627.346
14 82.99 42.86 75 3000 6224.2234 6214.143
15 87.95 41.04 75 3000 6596.5945 6077.735
16 79.51 47.30 75 3000 5963.2101 6547.153
17 97.51 46.84 50 3000 4875.5031 5342.229
18 100.62 47.95 50 3000 5030.8686 5397.286
19 90.36 44.92 100 3000 9035.7952 7491.792
20 79.61 45.85 75 3000 5970.5258 6438.884
21 85.70 40.77 75 3000 6427.4512 6057.952
22 94.24 44.24 75 3000 7067.8871 6318.191
23 89.03 41.83 75 3000 6677.5786 6137.404
24 102.75 48.69 50 3000 5137.7496 5434.709
25 92.43 48.65 100 3000 9243.2162 7865.033
26 96.19 48.00 75 3000 7214.5499 6600.334
27 88.93 46.34 75 3000 6669.8622 6475.146
28 86.16 41.12 75 3000 6461.6519 6084.345
29 96.65 42.18 50 3000 4832.2748 5108.806
30 93.37 46.61 50 3000 4668.5802 5330.644
31 83.23 46.23 75 3000 6242.5515 6467.158
32 83.77 41.30 75 3000 6282.9339 6097.486
33 88.89 44.30 75 3000 6666.6841 6322.686
34 81.94 41.90 75 3000 6145.5423 6142.181
35 94.04 45.02 75 3000 7052.7319 6376.375
36 92.39 46.80 75 3000 6929.5874 6510.369
37 91.85 44.84 50 3000 4592.5823 5242.053
38 85.81 45.54 50 3000 4290.6951 5277.125
39 87.40 43.48 50 3000 4370.0021 5174.162
40 97.43 42.94 100 3000 9743.0758 7294.31
41 87.11 48.03 50 3000 4355.4334 5401.601
42 85.47 42.37 50 3000 4273.3821 5118.434
43 88.94 43.56 100 3000 8894.4073 7356.448
44 86.26 42.30 100 3000 8626.3874 7229.686
45 95.01 48.96 50 3000 4750.4849 5447.927
46 89.41 43.59 75 3000 6705.9788 6268.968
47 89.74 40.95 100 3000 8974.2563 7094.769
48 87.85 45.05 50 3000 4392.6965 5252.6
49 90.62 44.79 50 3000 4531.0984 5239.588
50 92.49 41.57 100 3000 9248.7515 7157.436
51 94.36 42.16 50 3000 4717.935 5108.041
52 95.41 47.83 75 3000 7155.6782 6587.489
53 95.29 44.70 100 3000 9528.8921 7469.514
54 91.60 45.95 75 3000 6869.7564 6446.231
55 90.33 47.37 75 3000 6774.7729 6553.062
56 93.09 42.69 100 3000 9309.1452 7269.435
57 83.09 48.57 75 3000 6231.6635 6642.817
58 91.55 49.02 100 3000 9154.6229 7901.925
59 80.60 48.81 100 3000 8060.3419 7881.14
60 91.90 49.19 75 3000 6892.3215 6689.051
61 86.98 48.49 75 3000 6523.6278 6636.949
62 93.47 46.08 50 3000 4673.3931 5304.083
63 90.40 43.69 100 3000 9039.6802 7368.806
64 94.67 46.37 75 3000 7100.0472 6477.38
65 85.71 41.37 100 3000 8571.0139 7136.82
66 83.03 42.47 50 3000 4151.4418 5123.442
67 84.61 47.90 75 3000 6345.4138 6592.213
68 95.40 49.95 50 3000 4769.8923 5497.749
69 89.36 46.33 50 3000 4468.012 5316.683
70 80.10 42.30 75 3000 6007.6684 6172.452
71 89.58 44.74 75 3000 6718.6456 6355.8
72 83.43 42.53 75 3000 6256.9819 6189.839
73 91.31 44.04 100 3000 9130.7884 7404.32
74 93.43 44.51 50 3000 4671.4414 5225.737
75 89.44 43.34 75 3000 6707.8806 6250.834
 76 100.37 45.45 50 3000 5018.3771 5272.609
77 90.11 41.55 75 3000 6758.4751 6116.348
78 85.93 42.49 100 3000 8592.7652 7248.909
79 86.43 47.10 75 3000 6482.6037 6532.263
80 83.92 45.88 50 3000 4196.2182 5293.877
81 82.11 40.91 75 3000 6158.048 6068.001
82 86.55 44.41 75 3000 6490.9521 6330.56
83 85.19 43.20 75 3000 6389.194 6239.845
84 84.14 43.74 50 3000 4206.886 5186.822
85 85.25 43.77 100 3000 8525.0703 7376.672
86 92.64 44.92 100 3000 9264.3411 7491.891
87 93.46 48.98 75 3000 7009.7563 6673.171
88 91.61 47.77 100 3000 9160.72 7776.987
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494 98.00 41.46 75 3000 7349.7825 6109.784
495 92.83 46.45 75 3000 6962.1956 6483.421
496 84.77 43.03 50 3000 4238.3564 5151.472
497 82.18 49.17 75 3000 6163.8477 6688.058
498 82.28 42.71 50 3000 4114.2283 5135.595
499 93.18 42.56 50 3000 4658.9639 5128.063
500 97.16 47.76 75 3000 7287.0889 6581.889
=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$3:$G$5,3)
 n 3 10 100 500 400 400
Average Profit 375.00 514.24 327.52 338.83 341.66 373.62
Standard Deviation 1125 603.5933124 898.71 913.68 918.47
Standard Error 649.52 190.87 89.87 40.86 45.92 45.74
t Critical Value 4.303 2.262 1.98 1.96 1.97 1.97
Margin of Error 2794.65 431.78 178.32 80.28 90.28 89.93
95% CI Lower Limit (2419.65) 82.46 149.19 258.55 251.38 283.69
95% CI Upper Limit 3169.65 946.03 505.84 419.11 431.94 463.55

No. of losses 140.45

Profit/Loss Possibility of loss 0.3511
375.00 Standard deviation of loss 0.0239
(750.00) z critical value 1.960
1500.00 Margin of Error of loss 0.0468
95% CI Lower Limit of % loss 0.304348
(166.00) 95% CI Upper Limit of % loss 0.3979
247.84 =AVERAGE(C116:C515)
2009.53 MonteCarlito =P2 =COUNTIF(I116:I515,"<0")
69.19 AvgProfit loss AvgSPrc AvgUCt
575.72 1 -100 341.66 138 89.79 44.96 =AVERAGE(D116:D515)
579.48 2 Mean 373.62 140.45
196.59 3 Standard error 4.57 1.02
203.50 4 Median 374.01 139.00
598.08 5 Standard deviation 45.74 10.20
828.47 6 Variance 2092.34 104.13
(942.39) 7
1584.67
1465.17
10.08
518.86
(583.94)
(466.73)
(366.42)
1544.00
(468.36)
369.50
749.70
540.17
(296.96)
1378.18
614.22
194.72
377.31
(276.53)
(662.06)
 (224.61)
185.45
344.00
3.36
676.36
419.22
(649.47)
(986.43)
(804.16)
2448.77
(1046.17)
(845.05)
1537.96
1396.70
(697.44)
437.01
1879.49
(859.90)
(708.49)
2091.32
(390.11)
568.19
2059.38
423.53
221.71
2039.71
(411.15)
1252.70
179.20
203.27
(113.32)
(630.69)
1670.87
622.67
1434.19
(972.00)
(246.80)
(727.86)
(848.67)
(164.78)
362.85
67.14
1726.47
(554.30)
457.05
 (254.23)
642.13
1343.86
(49.66)
(1097.66)
90.05
160.39
149.35
(979.94)
1148.40
1772.45
336.59
1383.73
(154.45)
(1208.59)
495.22
(164.24)
669.20
1172.28
1342.92
(631.96)
605.05
79.93
2673.57
(25.49)
703.12
(870.32)
1723.01
167.46
(1006.24)
1746.96
68.88
1075.54
472.02
1171.65
(1044.07)
928.55
372.39
108.00
1181.47
478.29
(1018.86)
1809.82
2216.65
604.49
 (790.95)
706.66
88.76
693.53
1757.66
1927.58
1291.21
1028.28
377.83
391.10
14.35
162.59
132.71
(596.14)
923.15
168.00
1671.06
1874.58
(741.42)
(644.35)
(411.13)
(764.03)
(683.36)
386.64
1713.60
(446.37)
413.51
(273.51)
221.08
(491.83)
80.59
(222.88)
1416.52
1250.62
661.99
(342.11)
(663.04)
1464.95
1027.73
656.37
(982.12)
1238.33
(1294.12)
2492.76
954.55
 (167.68)
(806.84)
(34.53)
413.63
(388.40)
(1054.15)
(1443.74)
(716.19)
(1186.97)
1722.47
139.02
765.17
1133.26
(888.80)
876.01
2818.90
(1325.30)
527.92
258.77
617.22
1531.33
2623.91
891.10
834.38
1379.55
80.35
9.04
(999.18)
(787.55)
708.06
(309.39)
287.76
1321.46
558.29
156.46
(612.90)
1593.74
915.94
(863.65)
(780.69)
221.74
437.28
277.60
(526.04)
472.86
 179.76
1274.23
(604.49)
(841.98)
492.67
42.18
435.78
765.21
1741.81
(115.59)
1442.13
258.08
863.87
1558.98
(896.27)
1876.78
107.75
764.34
1442.13
720.23
272.06
1957.51
367.24
(269.42)
(795.10)
(278.33)
(1000.18)
(154.55)
(1063.58)
(604.37)
(578.51)
898.18
593.88
(274.33)
(294.58)
(132.82)
(155.54)
(186.72)
(709.65)
(876.31)
(617.40)
137.58
3061.63
358.75
668.55
 568.15
1346.55
2014.71
(306.00)
2095.64
(987.96)
1869.08
336.77
1655.75
280.26
116.54
575.57
314.25
(246.18)
869.10
(626.32)
1781.70
1104.25
(1313.48)
676.95
444.31
989.54
780.97
(370.72)
935.52
1638.07
325.23
753.02
607.93
96.27
276.27
1751.71
(437.20)
1504.60
506.71
(518.19)
171.35
(1084.47)
(182.13)
582.33
(1189.17)
1081.67
(1319.76)
485.91
(449.66)
 387.88
711.47
1353.37
(176.90)
436.24
104.37
(638.46)
(1090.32)
(848.71)
815.65
1263.41
(1024.88)
724.42
1313.82
446.56
(362.90)
462.92
278.28
(76.30)
864.00
758.97
(526.72)
(731.19)
1165.61
378.41
(373.58)
1241.30
715.49
1315.62
349.35
(913.14)
910.52
96.86
1550.76
(1058.44)
149.91
723.44
797.36
2029.96
781.62
19.83
145.58
431.31
1750.15
966.96
(1265.52)
2970.93
(1212.94)
300.31
(776.28)
177.92
(1303.11)
(1000.05)
(7.35)
(684.07)
694.01
(687.37)
(679.72)
1349.06
124.74
976.80
(138.14)
70.45
570.74
(52.73)
805.21
951.43
400.69
490.96
2366.09
871.30
(1012.17)
(921.24)
298.79
(1255.48)
(871.93)
(830.66)
289.94
(1188.80)
107.32
518.48
775.05
(572.30)
318.10
(796.19)
1361.63
483.59
462.60
462.43
(284.63)
 (739.62)
726.31
(270.33)
1344.89
395.22
724.27
39.76
656.59
1222.25
(511.47)
370.81
36.44
255.05
(143.80)
794.25
(51.97)
282.45
(10.60)
671.03
1069.74
12.45
1545.22
(881.61)
(39.19)
(337.98)
(419.32)
584.18
(423.04)
(254.13)
2665.00
805.14
(641.95)
481.97
320.56
437.46
(1030.27)
866.73
1355.88
(680.72)
170.58
611.90
38.40
1599.07
(1166.25)
2360.14
 1896.52
521.18
(520.59)
1978.55
613.53
1983.03
(176.74)
1546.83
788.58
1263.85
1903.05
1430.96
(604.43)
(102.87)
528.85
262.32
337.40
1071.85
159.60
686.45
976.56
(523.72)
1641.04
(1045.77)
(1061.05)
207.01
2306.02
334.38
(940.69)
2180.10
832.68
1384.80
82.75
2484.00
657.26
757.82
(155.49)
430.45
675.94
(1076.21)
1893.60
(615.70)
736.83
(64.79)
342.19
 389.48
1478.94
(538.00)
209.30
(544.33)
(1002.73)
496.07
2034.24
(504.53)
361.62
179.35
(473.18)
1206.73
1240.00
478.78
(913.12)
(524.21)
(1021.37)
(469.10)
705.20
 =L21

=L24
=TINV(0.05,R1-1)
=R5*R4
=R2-R6
=R2+R6

=M21
=R10/R1
=SQRT(R11*(1-R11)/R1)
=NORMSINV(0.975)
=R13*R12
=R11-R14
=R11+R14

E(D116:D515)