Theme # 1 – The Demise of American Power

America went from a colony to a Superpower in just over 200 years. The United States is one of

the worlds most powerful countries and has a world-spanning network of alliances and military

bases. Nye defines the power of the United States as the “American Century” The book “Is The

American Century Over?” gives several different times for when America came to prominence

and ultimate power. The book gives three potential dates for the beginning of the American

Century in 1991, 1914, and at the end of the 19th century when the United States became an

industrial powerhouse. Expansion is part of the American soul and in order to expand the United

States economy required a more centralized state to manage it. It became easier to acquire

territories abroad by consolidating greater amounts of power in bureaucracy and the executive

branch. I believe America became a true superpower and the American Century began after

World War II. The only country that emerged after the war powerful economically and in great

military shape was the United States. This put the United States in a unique position to broker

and shape the terms of peace. To coordinate the global economy and to prevent another great

depression a global financial system named the Bretton Woods System was created; also, the

United Nations was created to maintain postwar peace. Peace, prosperity, and our American way

of life are in danger from enemies foreign and domestic. After analyzing Nye’s work, I have

concluded that our current president Donald Trump and his foreign policy initiatives are

hastening the decline of American power. I believe Nye would respond to the foreign policy

initiatives of Donald Trump with disdain and contempt. Nye says “The rise of china is a

misnomer; recovery is more accurate. China was the world’s largest economy until it was

overtaken by Europe and America in the past two centuries as a result of the industrial

revolution.” (Pg. 45) I believe that Nye sees China regaining its stature as a superpower to be
inevitable. Trump initiatives put unnecessary stress and strain on relations with China. Trump

has taken an aggressive stance attempting to protect American workers and to reduce the United

States’ enormous bilateral trade deficit. Trump has attempted to confront China for what he says

is an entire host of economic abuses like intellectual property theft, currency manipulation,

export subsidies, and economic espionage. Donald Trump’s approach is damaging our

relationship with a country that may one day have more power than America.
Theme #2 - The Rise of Chinese Power

The Trump Administration, his supporters, and many others believe that China is a currency

manipulator. This alleged currency manipulation is possible because “China holds dollars it

receives from its sales to America, but the United States keeps its market open to Chinese

products and that creates growth, jobs, and stability back in China. Despite irritation and

temptations, China has not dumped its dollars on world financial markets. If it were to do so, it

might bring America to its knees, but at the cost of bringing itself to its ankles.” (pg.48) China is

effectively making a loan to the United States. Over the years China has amassed over $2.5

trillion in foreign exchange reserves, much of it held in U.S. Treasury Securities. There are some

observers that describe this as a great shift in the global balance of power; because currency is

used as a means of exchange and a store of value which makes it become known as a world

reserve currency. China’s size and population are important to their economic power. China has

a source of leverage that they can wield like a sword. They are the largest trading partners with

many countries, and this is one of their sources of leverage. China will continue to grow and will

most likely be the world’s biggest economy but not the world’s most sophisticated or advanced.

“No one, including Chinese leaders, knows how China’s political future will evolve and how it

will affect the economic growth.” (pg. 49)

Theme # 3 – Soft Power vs Hard Power

“Power is the ability to affect others to get the outcomes one wants, and there are three ways to

do that: by coercion (sticks); by payments (carrots) and by attraction or persuasion. Stick and

carrots are forms of hard power; attraction and persuasion are called soft power.” (pg. 11) With

the current pandemic happening across the world hard power like military force is of no use in

this type of situation. The United States will struggle to reach its international goals unless we

start to use more soft power and act in a spirit of collaboration. It is my opinion that this life is

meant to promote integration and not separation. To exercise power unnecessarily weakens and

contributes to the decline of a country’s economy. The hard power of the United States is

undeniable, but the soft power of the United States economy is debated by analysts and

economists. A consistent problem of the United States is one of power conversion. For some

time, America has had an issue translating power resources into effective influence. “American

Government was designed to be inefficient so that it presented less threat to liberty. In foreign

policy, the constitution was written in a way that invites the president and congress to struggle

for control. Strong economic and ethnic pressure groups struggle for their self-interested

definitions of the national interest and press congress to legislate the tactics of foreign policy and

codes of conduct with sanctions for other countries.” (pg. 72-73) The political institutions are

broken and need to be reformed.

Theme # 4 – The Information Revolution/Attention Deficit Disorder

Today information is more readily available than at any other time in history. 100 years ago,

people were lucky to read the equivalent of 50 books in a lifetime but today most children have

watched a couple of hundred movies. Researchers of Journal Science have found that there is

now over 295 exabytes of data floating around the world… to put that in context that is

29,500,000,000,000,000,000,000 pieces of information. Our brains have not evolved to be able

to process all the information that we are bombarded with on a daily basis. We have trouble

separating the trivial from the important and processing new information makes us tired. These

limitations have far reaching global implications and leads to a world of citizens with attention

deficit disorder. Attention is one of our most critical mental resources. “In today’s world

information depends on credibility. Government propaganda is rarely credible.” (Pg. 53) With

the unprecedented amount of information available it is harder for Governments to keep secrets

from its citizens and effectively promote propaganda. We live in a very connected world now

part of a global community. As technologies improve this will reduce cost and barriers of entry

into markets. Information can reduce the power of large states and can improve the power of

smaller states. Size does still matter though and there are aspects of the information revolution

that help the already large and powerful as well as the small. On the flip side our enhanced

capabilities and connectedness can create more vulnerability. “Under the influence of the

information revolution and globalization, world politics is changing in a way that means the

United States cannot achieve its goals acting alone.” (pg. 92)
Theme # 5 – What is Decline really

When talking about the decline of the American Century Nye brings up a remarkably interesting

point. When looking at the decline of any Government or Empire it is imperative to separate two

different concepts: relative decline and absolute decline. Relative decline is when a country has

an increasingly weaker economy when compared with economies of other comparable countries.

While absolute decline refers to a country’s increasingly weaker economy when compared with

the same country’s economy in the past. So, when talking about the decline of a country, empire,

or entity you must ask the question; Are you comparing it to another country or itself? I believe

that the United States is not in absolute decline it is in relative decline. The United States is

weaker that it used to be. Countries and Empires don’t have a well-defined life cycle. A political

entity is a social construct. “Rome reached its apogee in AD 117, but the Western Roman Empire

did not collapse until some three and a half centuries later, and the Eastern Roman Empire

persisted until 1453.” (pg. 22) It is a challenge to judge if a country is in decline. It is far easier to

gauge if a human being is in decline and their estimated life span. The United States of America

in my analysis will continue to be a superpower for many years to come. The demise of the

United States of America will not be seen in my lifetime or the lifetime of my two daughters.