CONFIDENCE Dr.

RENJ
INTERVAL U
OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
CONFIDENCE LIMITS
HOW TO SET?
FACTORS – SET
SIGNIFICANCE
APPLICATIONS
INTRODUCTIO
N
Statistical parameter

Descriptive statistics :
Describe what is there in our data

Inferential statistics :
Make inferences from our data to
more general conditions
Inferential statistics

Data taken from a sample is

used to estimate a population
parameter

Hypothesis testing (P-values)

Point estimation (Confidence
intervals)
POINT ESTIMATE
Estimate obtained from a sample

Inference about the population

Point estimate is only as good as the

sample it represents

Random samples from the

population - Point estimates likely to
vary
Variation in sample statistics

ISSUE ???
SOLUTION

Estimating a population
parameter with a confidence
interval
 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
A range of values so constructed
that there is a specified probability
of including the true value of a
parameter within it
CONFIDENCE LEVEL

Probability of including the true

value of a parameter within a
confidence interval
Percentage
CONFIDENCE LIMITS

Two extreme measurements

within which an observation
lies

End points of the confidence

interval

Larger confidence – Wider

 A point estimate is a single
number
A confidence interval contains a
certain set of possible values of
the parameter

Lower Upper
Confidence Point Estimate Confidenc
Limit Width of e
confidence
interval Limit
HOW TO
SET
CONCEPTS
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE

MEAN ( µ )

STANDARD DEVIATION (SD)

RELATIVE DEVIATE (Z)

 NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION CURVE
Perfect
symmetry
Smooth
Bell shaped

Mean (µ) 0
Median
Mode

SD(σ) - 1

Area - 1
RELATIVE DEVIATE (Z)
Distance of a value (X) from mean
value (µ) in units of standard
deviation (SD)

Standard normal variate

Z =x –
µ
SD
CONFIDENCE LIMITS

From µ - Z(SD)

To µ + Z(SD)
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
FACTORS – TO SET CI

Size of sample

Variability of population

Precision of values
 SAMPLE SIZE

Central Limit Theorem

“Irrespective of the shape of the

underlying distribution, sample mean &
proportions will approximate normal
distributions if the sample size is
sufficiently large”
Large sample – Narrow CI
SKEWED DISTRIBUTION
 VARIABILITY OF
POPULATION
 POPULATION
STATISTICS
Repeated samples
Different means
Standard normal curve
Bell shape
Smooth
Symmetrical
POPULATION STATISTICS
Population mean (µ)
Standard error - Sampling
(SD/√n)
Z=x–µ
SD/√n

Confidence limits
From µ - Z(SE)
To µ + Z(SE)
 95%
95% sample means are
within 2 SD of population
mean
PRECISION OF VALUES

Greater precision

Narrow confidence interval

Larger sample size

PRECISION OF
VALUES
SIGNIFICANCE
 95%
Significance
Observed value
within 2 SD of true
value
 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AND
Α ERROR
Type I error
Two groups

Significant difference is detected

Actual – No difference exists
False Positive
 Confidence level is usually set at
95%

(1– ) = 0.95
MARGIN OF
ERROR
σ
ME  zα/ 2
x n
 Margin of error

Reduce the SD (σ↓)

Increase the sample size (n↑)

Narrow confidence level (1 – ) ↓

P VALUE

95% CI corresponds to
hypothesis testing with P <0.05
SIGNIFICANC
E
If CI encloses no effect, difference is
non significant
P value – Statistical significance

Confidence Interval – Clinical

significance
APPLICATIONS

CLINICAL TRIALS
 Confidence intervals and
sample
Margin size
of error

Increase the sample size

Reduce confidence level

Dynamic relation
EXAMPLE
Series of 5 trials

Equal duration

Different sample sizes

To determine whether a novel

hypolipidaemic agent is better than
placebo in preventing stroke
Smallest trial  8 patients

Largest trial 2000 patients

½ of the patients in each trial – New drug

All trials - Relative risk reduction by 50%

QUESTION
S
In each individual trial, how
confident can we be regarding
the relative risk reduction

Which trials would lead you to

recommend the treatment
unequivocally to your patients
 MORE CONFIDENT - LARGER
TRIALS

CI - Range within
which the true effect
of test drug might
plausibly lie in the
given trial data
Greater precision

Narrow confidence intervals

Large sample size

 THERAPEUTIC
DECISIONS

Recommend for or against

therapy ?
 Points
Minimally Important Treatment
Effect
Smallest amount of benefit that
would justify therapy
Uppermost point of the bell curve
Observed
effect
Observed effect

Point estimate
 Tails of the bell curve
Boundaries of the 95% confidence
interval
Observed
effect
TRIAL 1
TRIAL 2
 CI overlaps the smallest
treatment benefit
Not Definitive
Need narrower Confidence
interval

Larger sample size

TRIAL 3
TRIAL 4
 CI overlaps the smallest
treatment benefit
Not Definitive
Need narrower Confidence
interval

Larger sample size

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
FOR
EXTREME PROPORTIONS
Proportions with numerator – 0
Proportions approaching - 1

Proportions with numerators very

close to the corresponding
denominators
NUMERATOR - 0
Rule of 3

Proportion – 0/n

Confidence level – 95%

Upper boundary – 3/n

EXAMPL
E
20 people – Surgery
None had serious complications

Proportion 0/20
3/n – 3/20
15%
PROPORTIONS APPROACHING - 1

Translate 100% into its complement

EXAMPL
E
Study on a diagnostic test
100% sensitivity when the test is
performed for 20 patients who have
the disease.

Test identified all 20 with the

disease as positive – 100%
No falsely negatives – 0%
95% Confidence level
Proportion of false negatives - 0 /20
3/n rule
Upper boundary - 15% (3 /20 )

Sensitivity
Lower boundary
Subtract this from 100%
100 – 15 = 85%
NUMERATORS VERY CLOSE TO
THE DENOMINATORS
Rule
Numerator X
1 5
2 7
3 9
4 10
95% Confidence level

Upper boundary –
CONCLUSION
Confidence interval

Confidence level

Confidence limits

95%

Observed value within 2 SD

Population statistics
THANK YOU