Week Thirty – Probability

Goal of the week

- Play with probability to work through experimental and theoretical probability
Day one – Plinko and Betting on the horses
Goal
- Visual representations of probability
Subordinated tasks
- Constructing and deconstructing numbers
Delivery
- Random groups of three
- “We’re going to play a game today where we pick a number and hope our number is the
winner. We’ll do a quick demonstration before we play in our groups. (pick a student)
choose a number between 1 and 12. (project this picture) Roll the dice, and whatever
number comes up, that “horse” moves up one spot. The first horse who moves into the
orange bar is the winner. Groups of three, you can choose four horses each, take turns
picking.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

- After a group plays a match (or two), ask them which number won. The key to this lesson
is why that number won.
o Kids may answer, because it’s in the middle, but that’s not good enough.
 If I put 11 and 12 in the middle, would they win?
o What if, instead of a six sided dice, I gave you two 10 sided dice, which numbers
should win the most, and why?
When everyone is at this point, bring up the ideas of theoretical and experimental
probability.
- Use this website to show probability for the game Plinko. Start with one “peg” which
only has two outcomes.
- Then go to 3 pegs, which has 4 outcomes
- 6 pegs has 8 outcomes
- 10 pegs has 16 outcomes
 - Show students, have them make predictions (theoretical) and test their predictions
Day Two – Greedy Pig
Goal
- Continue playing with experimental and theoretical probability
Subordinated task
- Constructing and deconstructing numbers
- Fractions
Delivery
- Whole class is playing a game
- Game one – warm up
o Have a coin, get ready to flip it.
 Everyone stands, if you think it’s going to be heads, touch your head, if
you think tails, touch your back.
 Flip coin, if you’re wrong, sit down.
 Go until there is one left, that person wins.
 Talk about the chances of flipping heads or tails (1 out of 2,
50%...)
 The probability should change every time (theoretical) but it
doesn’t (experimental). There is a 50% chance every time, and it
doesn’t matter what the last time was.
o Greedy pig
 Dice game where kids get points for what number on a dice is rolled.
 The round ends when a 1 is rolled.
 Everyone stands at the beginning, the dice is rolled, everyone gets that
amount of points.
 Before the next roll, kids have the option of sitting and banking
their points. They are done for the round if they sit, but they cannot
lose banked points.
 If a 1 is rolled and you are standing (waiting to collect more
points), you lose all your points from that round and get 0 for the
round.
 Variation to include fractions (or decimals)
 On the board write the following
o 2  ½ points
o 3 1 points
o 4 1 ½ points
o 5 2 points
o 6 2 ½ points
  You could use any fraction (quarters, thirds, whatever), the goal is
to make kids count with fractions.
o A huge challenge would be giving a few different
denominators.
 Play greedy pig for as many rounds as you want, make sure you end the
game in a reasonable amount of rounds so kids don’t check out.
 If I’m down 50 points, I’m not even trying. End the game if one or
two kids start to run away with it.
Day Three – Traffic light problem
Goal
- Use probability to solve problems
Subordinated tasks
- Fractions
- Decimals
- Common multiples
Delivery
- Random groups, vertical surfaces
- Task: A traffic light runs at 60 second intervals. In a minute, it will be yellow for 5
seconds and red for 20. What is the probability that I drive up to the light and see a green
light?
o Scaffolding to this question
 Have the light run at 100 second intervals
 Yellow 10 seconds
 Red 55 seconds
 What is the probability that I drive up to the light and see a green
light?
- Extension
o Change the numbers
Day Four
Goal
- Use probability to solve problems
- Probability tree diagrams
Subordinated tasks
- Fractions
- Decimals
- Common multiples
Delivery
- Random groups, vertical surfaces
- Task: Four teachers teach four groups of grade six students. Every morning, the teachers
get together, put their names in a hat and decide who will teach which class.
o What are the chances that a teacher teaches the same kid two days in a row?
 Three days in a row?
o What are the chances that a teacher does not teach your class two days in a row?
- Kids might need guidance on this, but it’s a fun problem for them to figure out, especially
visually.