Climate change and tourism:

Where will the journey take us?

Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group

Philipp Ehmer
March 3, 2008
Analytical approach

How does climate change influence tourism?

Direct climatic dimension (e.g. higher temperatures, change in precipitation
patterns, more frequent extreme weather conditions)

Indirect regulatory dimension (increase in the price of mobility)

Evaluation of 66 important holiday destinations
– Analysis of types of travel (e.g. weather and seasonal dependency) and distance to
source markets
– Analysis of regional and seasonal shifts
– Analysis of potential adaptation strategies

Country ranking by means of a scoring model: winners and losers of climate
change

Assessment of the economic impact of the tourism sector

Time horizon: 2030

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 2

Climatic dimension

Climatic changes with a major bearing on tourism:

Globally occurring changes:
– Rise in temperatures

Regionally emerging changes:
– Water shortage
– Extreme weather conditions and their consequences (storms, flash floods, forest fires)
– Decreasing snow cover and snow reliability
– Coral bleaching
– Loss of biodiversity
– In the long run: sea level rises

Learning effects are significant: tourists are gradually taking greater account of
climatic changes and already adapting their holiday destination choices today

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 3

Regulatory dimension

Increase in the price of mobility:

Distance from important source markets is crucial – Africa, Oceania and
Latin America are strongly penalised
Europeans love travelling Europe offers popular destinations
International departures 2006, in % International arrivals 2006, in %
1.8
2.7
2.8 4.8
4.9

17.1
16.1

56.3 54.4

19.3
19.8

Europe Asia & Pacific Europe Asia & Pacific

Americas Middle East Americas Middle East
Africa Not specified Africa
Source: UNWTO Source: UNWTO

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 4

Example 1: Spain

Tourism in Spain sensitive to climate change: Regions’ shares of international

arrivals 2005, in %

Beach tourism dominates

Risks: rising temperature & water shortage
– Mediterranean coast affected the most

Opportunities: regional beneficiaries
– Atlantic coast with growth potential
– Canaries could benefit

City tourism stays insensitive to climate change

Business trips: 7% of total

Foreign tourists: 59% of total
Source: Spanish government

Most important foreign source markets:
UK and Germany (approx. 60%)

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 5

Example 2: Germany
Federal states’ shares of
overnight stays 2005, in %
Southern states and coast attract bulk of visitors:

Tourism less sensitive to climate change

Risk: snow reliability
– Alps and German ‘Mittelgebirge’ strongly affected

Opportunity: rise in temperatures
– Big potential along North Sea and Baltic Sea
– Alps and German ‘Mittelgebirge’ more attractive during the
summer

City tourism: 15% of total

Business trips: 17% of total

Foreign tourists: 15% of total

Most important foreign source markets:
Netherlands, US, UK (approx. 35%)
Source: Destatis

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 6

How to assess the overall impact? With a scoring model

Impact of climate change on a region’s attractiveness:

Four main factors in our scoring model:
– Climatic changes (e.g. rise in temperatures, water shortage)
– Regulatory burdens (e.g. increase in price of mobility)
– Substitution effects (e.g. shift in tourist flows)
– Adaptation possibilities (e.g. snowguns)

Identification of winners and losers

Next step: analysis of economic importance of tourism by country (share of

GDP)

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 7

 How climate change influences tourism

Predominantly…
Positively affected
Slightly positively affected
Slightly negatively affected
Negatively affected
Not examined

Source: DB Research

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 8

 Winners & losers
More losers than winners from climate change
Rating with respect to impacts of climate change according to DB Research’s scoring model (y-axis) and
tourism sector's share of GDP in % (x-axis; global average: 9%)

The stars of tomorrow Positively affected by climate change

BeNeLux
according to scoring model
The beneficiaries
DK
LV LT EE
DE
PL
CA
SE GB
CH
NZ
RU NO IE
FI
FR
CZ
SK
US
IT SI
ID
ZA UA Tourism sector's share of GDP
AR
RO SG CN MY TH AT
CL DO HK
BG HR
BR JP KE
IN South Pacific
PE CU HU LK CR EG
AE MX ES
MA
PH
TZ AU GR CY MT
PT TN
TR

0 5 Negatively affected 10 15 20
The uninvolved by climate change The losers
according to scoring model

Source: DB Research
Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 9
Conclusion

Climate change is a challenge for the tourism sector in many countries

– No short-term phenomenon but a permanent change of the general framework

But: here only partial analysis; other factors remain important
– Disposable income, backlog demand as drivers for tourism growth
– Tourism will remain a growth sector (+4% p.a. until 2020)

Nevertheless, climate change will significantly reduce the growth potential of
tourism in many regions; in some regions, falling turnover is likely

Situation for climate change losers will not improve after 2030

Investors in tourism infrastructure have to take climatic changes into account
already today

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 10

More at www.dbresearch.de

Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 11

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Philipp Ehmer · March 3, 2008 · page 12