Major Seismic events

in India Sub-continent 1885 Kashmir M>7.5

1555 Kashmir M>7.5 (??)
1905 Kangra M7.8
1934 Nepal-Bihar M>8
1950 Upper Assam M>8
2005 Kashmir M7.6

Indian Plate

325 BC M>7 (?)

1945 M>7.8

893 M (?) 1679 M7.5

1668 M8 1762 M7.5
1819 M7.8 1847 Mw7.5
1845 M>7 1881 Mw7.9
1956 M6.1 1941 Mw7.7
2001 M7.6 2004 Mw9.3
Indian Ocean
(600-1500 m) (600-2500 m) (6500-7000 m)

(after Jackson and Bilham, 1994)

 Deadly Effects with Poor Quality Construction

• The Haiti earthquake on January 12, 2010, destroyed the

capital city of Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas, killing
more than 230,000 people.
Ambraseys and Bilham (2000)

Total damage around Kangra-

Dharamsala during 1950 Kangra
Earthquake (Mw7.8)
Near to total damage in Kachchch
during 2001 Bhuj EQ
Near to total damage in Kachchch
during 2001 Bhuj EQ
• What are earthquakes?
 Earthquake Forecasting And
Prediction (1)
• Forecasting identifies both earthquake-
prone areas and man-made structures that
are especially vulnerable to damage from
shaking.
• Earthquake prediction refers to attempts to
estimate precisely when the next
earthquake on a particular fault is likely to
occur.
 Earthquake Forecasting And
Prediction (2)
• Earthquake forecasting is based largely on elastic
rebound theory and plate tectonics.
• The elastic rebound theory suggests that if fault
surfaces do not slip easily past one another,
energy will be stored in elastically deformed rock,
just as in a steel spring that is compressed.
• Currently, seismologists use plate tectonic motions
and Global positioning System (GPS)
measurements to monitor the accumulation of
strain in rocks near active faults.