Problem 1

Consider the sales data given for Maruti Sizuki Limited.

Forecast the sales for the coming period, using the simple
1. three-period period moving averages

Determine the forecast error. What do you conclude?

Period No. Period Sale of cars 3 period MA Forecast error

1 Jul-17 153298
2 Aug-17 151270
3 Sep-17 150521
4 Oct-17 135128 151696 -16568
5 Nov-17 144297 145640 -1343
6 Dec-17 118560 143315 -24755
7 Jan-18 139189 132662 6527
8 Feb-18 136648 134015 2633
9 Mar-18 147170 131466 15704
10 Apr-18 163434 141002 22432
11 May-18 161497 149084 12413
12 Jun-18 134036 157367 -23331
13 Jul-18 152427 152989 -562
14 Aug-18 149320 -149320

CFE -6850
MFE
MAD 12626.8333333
cntrl shift enter
average of first 3 sales of car = 3 period moving average = average and select firsr 3 data of sales of
forecast error = actual - forecast , sales of car - 3period MA

Chart Title
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18

Sale of cars 3 period MA

ect firsr 3 data of sales of car

Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18

iod MA
Problem 2

A cell phone company has collected the following data about the sales in millions of units, of one of its p
Determine the forecast using the
1. Moving average, and
2. Weighted moving average methods.
Also find out the error in the forecast using MAD and draw your conclusion.

Cellphones,
Year Quarter
Millions of units Moving Average
1 Quarter 1 64.9
1 Quarter 2 65.33
1 Quarter 3 71.67
1 Quarter 4 79.17 67
2 Quarter 1 68.78 72
2 Quarter 2 69.83 73
2 Quarter 3 78.61 73
2 Quarter 4 92.68 72
3 Quarter 1 89.28 80
3 Quarter 2 90.43 87
3 Quarter 3 97.96 91
3 Quarter 4 106.96 93
4 Quarter 1 100.66 98
4 Quarter 2 107.53 102
4 Quarter 3 117.06 105
4 Quarter 4 119.21 108
5 Quarter 1 110.05 115
5 Quarter 2 97.42 115
5 Quarter 3 93.62 109
5 Quarter 4 97.99 100
6 Quarter 1 88.74 96
6 Quarter 2 102.06 93
6 Quarter 3 96

8.73543859649123
out the sales in millions of units, of one of its popular brands.

your conclusion.

Weighted Moving Average FORECAST ERROR ABS ERROR Period

1
2
3
68.414 12 11.87
74.152 -3
72.475 -3 WMA = SUMproduct select first 3 valu
71.383 6
74.01 20
83.889 9
88.166 4
90.535 7
93.965 14
100.954 2
102.01 6
105.355 12
110.921 11
116.229 -5
114.2 -18
105.567 -15
98.046 -2
96.565 -8
92.491 9
97.25 -96

7.94257894736843
 Weight Weight Weight
0.2 0.1 0.1
0.3 0.4 0.3
0.5 0.5 0.6

= SUMproduct select first 3 values of celphones , select firsr 3 weights press function f4 bracket close
 Consider the production data of cement in India. The forecasts for the years 2019
is also given. Check the forecast figure using moving average and Weighted
moving average method. Determine the forecast error and draw your conclusion.

Cement production
Period Year
Millions of metric tons forecast production WMA
1 2008 174.30
2 2009 186.90
3 2010 206.60
4 2011 216.00 189.27 194.23
5 2012 230.49 203.17 207.36
6 2013 248.23 217.70 221.365
7 2014 255.83 231.57 236.462
8 2015 270.04 244.85 248.482
9 2016 283.46 258.03 261.415
10 2017 279.81 269.78 273.908
11 2018 298.00 277.77 278.951
Forecast 12 2019 316.00 287.09 289.635
years 2019
ghted
onclusion.

FORECAST ERROR WFE Period Weight

1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.5
26.73 21.77
27.32 23.13
30.53 26.87
24.26 19.37
25.19 21.56
25.43 22.05
10.03 5.90
20.23 19.05
28.91 26.37
 An electronics product manufacturing company has reported the sales of its three
Table. The figures are in thousands. The forecasts for the year 2019 is also given.
coming year using moving average methods and compare the results.
Whcih method do you recommend and why?

Year Desktop PC Laptops Tablets SALES FORECAST OF PC

2010 157.00 201.00 19.00
2011 155.00 209.00 76.00
2012 148.00 291.00 145.00
2013 134.40 180.90 227.30 153.33
2014 133.85 174.28 229.70 145.80
2015 129.00 194.00 332.00 138.75
2016 127.00 202.00 375.00 132.42
2017 123.11 196.60 406.80 129.95
2018 121.10 170.00 303.50 126.37
Forecast 2019 121.00 170.40 269.40 123.74
2020 121.74
2021 121.05
orted the sales of its three major products as shown in the
he year 2019 is also given. Establish the forecasts for the
are the results.

SALES FORECAST OF LAPTOP SALES FORECAST OF TABLET

233.67 80.00
226.97 149.43
215.39 200.67
183.06 263.00
190.09 312.23
197.53 371.27
189.53 361.77
179.00 326.57
170.20 286.45
Using the last twelve months' sales data forecast the sales for the next month usin
period moving average and 3 period weighted moving average methods. Select th
weights appropriately.

Maruti Suzuki
Month
Swift MOVING AVERAGE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
Sep 18278
Oct 17669
Nov 11859
Dec 14548 15935.33 14885.8
Jan 14057 14692.00 14365.5
Feb 15475 13488.00 13764.7
Mar 14524 14693.33 14864.2
Apr 15661 14685.33 14715.9
May 12355 15220.00 15282.7
Jun 9033 14180.00 13780.6
Jul 13934 12349.67 11355.2
Aug 13027 11774.00 12147.9
Sep 11998.00 12500.3
es for the next month using 3
verage methods. Select the

Period Weight
1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.5

Chart Title
20000
18000 18278 17669
16000 15475 15661
14000 14548 14057 14524 13934
13027
12000 11859 12355
10000
9033
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Maruti Suzuki Swift MOVING AVERAGE